Archive for Outfielders

One of 2009’s biggest surprises, Ben Zobrist was an afterthought and hardly drafted before the year began. Now, he is in everyone’s mind and has moved up the rankings fast. Most players that breakout the year before and are underrated become overrated almost overnight. Using ADP data provided by Mock Draft Central, we can easily take a look at where Zobrist is going, and whether he is over/under/correctly valued going into 2010.

At the time that I am writing this, on average, Zobrist is currently the 8th second baseman off the board and is being drafted at around pick number 60. The second baseman being drafted before him (Aaron Hill) is taken 12 picks ahead of Zobrist, and the second baseman after him (Dan Uggla) goes a whopping 27 picks later.

Because he was a utility man in 2009, Zobrist should also be available as an outfielder in all leagues. Currently, he is the 16th outfielder off the board, sandwiched between Curtis Granderson (56) and teammate B.J. Upton (60). Even better, Zobrist started 6 games at shortstop and played a total of 13 games at that position, giving him extra eligibility in some leagues (like Yahoo!) that may carry over into the 2010 season. If that is the case, Zobrist would be the sixth SS off the board, after Derek Jeter (51) and teammate Jason Bartlett (104).

It’s hard to put a price on a player’s ability to play two, and possibly three positions and provide a solid offensive return. Because we are talking about Zobrist, and this is FanGraphs, I suppose we need to talk some stats. Fine. Below are Zobrist’s stats from 2008 and 2009, along with the Fan Projections for 2010.

2008: .253/.339/.505, 12 HR, 3 SB, 32 R, 30 RBI, .255 BABIP, .311 xBABIP
2009: .297/.405/.543, 27 HR, 17 SB, 91 R, 91 RBI, .330 BABIP, .327 xBABIP
2010: .282/.378/.470, 22 HR, 14 SB, 94 R, 107 RBI

Fans are expecting a drop-off in power and steals, and a decrease in batting average. Not good. However, those numbers still aren’t terrible, and better than most second baseman on the market. For a shortstop, I like a little more speed and a higher average, but you can always compensate at other positions. As an outfielder, the numbers aren’t great. The RBI’s and runs are very good, but I’d rather play him at an infield position.

Overall, I’d be willing to take Zobrist in the middle round six, a little after where he is projected to go. For once, a breakout player doesn’t seem to be too overvalued going into drafts. Zobrist isn’t underrated anymore, and you’ll have to pay market value for his services on your fantasy team.

Cleveland Indians signed OF Austin Kearns and OF/1B Shelley Duncan to minor league contracts.

Have you seen Kearns’ bat? He misplaced it in 2008, and hasn’t been able to find it since. The former Red won’t 30 until May, but his production dropped like a lead balloon over the past two seasons. Injuries have often plagued Kearns, but he posted a 118 wRC+ in a 2006 season split between Cincinnati and Washington and a 107 wRC+ with the Nationals in 2007. He topped the 600 PA mark both years.

Since then, Kearns has a ghastly 75 wRC+ while showing the durability of antique porcelain. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X Injury Tool, the 6-3 righty batter missed time in 2008 following right elbow surgery, while serving another DL stint for a stress fracture in his left foot. 2009 was tainted by right thumb surgery. Kearns still drew some walks in ’08 and ’09, but his power vanished:

Kearns’ ISO, by year

Kearns has been a quality defensive outfielder during his career, which helps his chances a bit. But he was an absolute wreck at the plate in 2009, with a sub-70 percent contact rate and a middle infielder-like .109 ISO. More than anything, he needs to show up to spring training in one piece.

Duncan, meanwhile, is a minor league slugger from the Yankees organization known for giving some hellacious forearm bumps.

The 30 year-old right-handed batter stands a hulking 6-5, 225 pounds, and holds a career .271/.368/.533 line in 1,200+ PA at the Triple-A level. He has drawn walks at a 12.8% clip, while striking out 19.9%. Duncan’s ISO in Triple-A is a robust .262.

Duncan has received minimal major league playing time, batting .219/.290/.411 with an 84 wRC+ in 163 PA. How would Duncan’s minor league mashing play at the highest level? Here are his Major League Equivalent (MLE) lines from 2007-2009, courtesy of Minor League Splits:

2007
AAA: .291/.379/.565 in 333 AB
MLE: .250/.322/.468

2008
AAA: .239/.363/.483 in 215 AB
MLE: .200/.299/.395

2009
AAA: .277/.371/.548 in 451 AB
MLE: .237/.316/.454

Duncan’s raw numbers look great, but his MLEs paint the picture of a league-average hitter because of his age. CHONE is more optimistic, projecting a .252/.336/.486 triple-slash in the majors.

According to ESPNChicago’s Bruce Levine, free agent OF Marlon Byrd signed a three-year, $15 contract with the Chicago Cubs. Byrd figures to patrol center field on the North Side, pushing Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.

Byrd’s career was on life support when he latched on with the Texas Rangers back in 2007. The stocky right-handed batter once was a hot-shot prospect with the Philadelphia Phillies, and he posted a 116 wRC+ while playing good D as Philly’s everyday center fielder in 2003.

It was all downhill from there, however, as Byrd’s offense plummeted. He posted a grisly 58 wRC+ in 2004, a 92 wRC+ between the Phillies and Nationals in 2005 and a 79 wRC+ with Washington in 2006.

After tearing up AAA Oklahoma to begin the ’07 season, Byrd was called up by the Rangers and played all three outfield positions. He managed a 110 wRC+ in 454 plate appearances, though his batting average on balls in play was a whopping .370. Byrd swung from his heels, chasing 32 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average) and 71.5% of in-zone pitches (66% MLB average). He walked in just 6.5% of his plate appearances.

Given that hacking and his good fortune on balls put in play, Byrd looked like a good bet to regress in 2008. Instead, he turned in a career year at the plate. Byrd was still aggressive (29.8 O-Swing%, 71.2 Z-Swing%). But opposing pitchers placed only 49.6% of their offerings within the strike zone against him, compared to 54.6% in 2007 (the MLB average is about 50 percent). As a result, his walk rate climbed to 10.2%. In 462 PA, Byrd posted a 125 wRC+.

In 2009, Byrd had a 28.5 O-Swing%, but his walk rate fell considerably (5.5 BB%). He was positively giddy against in-zone pitches. Byrd hacked at 74.1% of pitches thrown over the plate, one of the 15 highest rates among batters (his In-Zone% was a little higher than in ’08, at 50.6). His park and league-adjusted offense was still eight percent above average, though, as he popped a career-high 20 home runs. Byrd’s ISO was .196, well above his career .143 mark.

Over his past three seasons, Byrd has a combined .295/.352/.468 triple-slash, with a 114 wRC+. The 32 year-old has experienced a nice second act, after seemingly falling off the map toward the middle part of the decade.

Byrd showed a big home/away split from 2007-2009 (.309/.375/.522 at home, .281/.328/.414 away). While some might point to those splits and declare that Byrd is a .280/.330/.410 player, simply taking his away numbers and discarding the home figures isn’t a particularly useful way to go about making a projection. That’s the statistical equivalent of throwing out the baby with the bath water.

As Byrd’s wRC+ figures show, he’s been 10-15% better than the average batter over that time period. Factoring in Marlon’s age, one might expect him to be slightly above average with the lumber in 2010.

CHONE projects Byrd to bat .271/.333/.431 in 2010, while ZiPS spits out a .283/.339/.450 line. The difference in home ballparks shouldn’t be a jarring one. According to The Bill James Handbook, Wrigley Field has increased run scoring by 13 percent and home runs by 10 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009, while Arlington has boosted runs by seven percent and homers by 13 percent. Arlington is more hospitable to righty power, though (110 HR park factor for RHB from 2007-2009, compared to 103 for Wrigley).

Overall, CHONE forecasts Byrd to be worth +2 runs with the bat, while playing a slightly below-average center field (-3 runs). If he reaches those marks, he would be worth around 2 WAR in 2010. That sort of sums up Byrd’s overall game: average. He’s an OK option in NL-only formats, but you should aim higher in mixed leagues.

In a shocking turn of events, the San Francisco Giants recently signed a 30-something free agent to help fill a void in the lineup. An unpredictable one, that Brian Sabean. Mark DeRosa, 35 in February, will likely man the hot corner for the Giants on most nights, shifting Pablo Sandoval to first base.

After reportedly seeking a three-year deal worth as much as $27 million total, DeRosa had to settle for a milder two-year, $12 pact with San Francisco. The University of Pennsylvania product once was an obscure utility man with the Atlanta Braves, posting a combined 81 wRC+ from 1998 to 2004 (his park and league-adjusted offense was 19 percent worse than average).

However, DeRosa emerged as the Swiss Army Knife of ball players with the Texas Rangers. He didn’t play a whole lot in 2005, with a wRC+ of 102 in 166 plate appearances. But the righty batter was penciled into the lineup card daily in 2006, posting a 108 wRC+ while bouncing around the diamond (second base, third base and right field, with a few cameos at shortstop, first base and left field).

Those contributions helped land DeRosa a three-year, $13M deal with the Chicago Cubs prior to the 2007 season. He replicated his Lone Star State production in the Windy City in ’07, with another 108 wRC+ season while playing every position on the diamond at some point, save for catcher and center field (he spent most of his time at 3B and 2B).

2008 would be a career year for DeRosa, who bopped to the tune of a 128 wRC+ while doing his usual “wherever ya need me, skip” act in the field. He walked in a career-high 12.4 percent of his PA, compiling a .196 ISO to boot.

After the season, the Cubs shipped DeRosa to the Cleveland Indians for a package of young arms including Christopher Archer, John Gaub and Jeff Stevens. With the team’s playoffs aspirations obliterated by mid-season, however, the Tribe dealt DeRosa to the St. Louis Cardinals in late June for relief prospects Chris Perez and Jesse Todd.

DeRosa suffered a left wrist injury in ’09, serving a DL stint for a torn tendon sheath just after being acquired by the Cards. He played through the ailment once he was activated in mid-July. Overall, DeRosa batted .250/.319/.433 in 576 PA, with a 101 wRC+. Despite the bum wrist, he actually retained much of his power stroke, posting a .183 ISO on the season.

His plate discipline wasn’t as sharp, though. Perhaps it was the wrist injury, as such maladies sap a player’s bat control. Or maybe it was just the normal decline we expect to see in a mid-30’s player coming off of career-best campaigns. Whatever the cause, DeRosa took a cut at more pitches off the plate, swung at fewer offerings within the strike zone and made less contact:

2007
19.5 Outside-Swing%, 71.3 Z-Swing%, 82.5 Contact%

2008
20.9 O-Swing%, 66.3 Z-Swing%, 79.3 Contact%

2009
23.5 O-Swing%, 65.2 Z-Swing%, 77.9 Contact%

(The MLB averages in recent years are: 25% for O-Swing, 66% for Z-Swing and 81% for Contact)

DeRosa should be roughly a league-average hitter in 2010, though there’s downside potential because of his age. He played mostly third base in ’09, but logged enough appearances in the outfield to qualify there as well. Unfortunately, DeRosa likely lost second base eligibility in many leagues (he appeared in just two games at the keystone).

CHONE projects DeRosa to hit .262/.343/.415 next season, which is about average offensive production. Bill James calls for a similar .260/.335/.418 line, while the fans are slightly more hopeful with a .273/.346/.436 forecast. DeRosa is an adequate option in NL-only leagues, but there’s no upside with decent hitter, in his mid-30’s, coming off of an injury.

According to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, free agent OF Jason Bay has come to terms on a four-year, $66 million deal with the New York Mets, pending a physical. Bay’s contract reportedly includes a vesting option for 2014, too.

Bay, 31, was actually Mets property back in 2002. The former Gonzaga star was a 22nd round pick of the Expos in 2000. He was dealt to the Mets in March of 2002, only to be traded to the Padres in July of ’02 and then the Pirates in August of 2003. The Bucs shipped Bay to the Red Sox as part of a three-team deal in July of 2008.

The 6-2 righty batter can mash, but his defensive shortcomings do dent his value. Bay has a career -8 UZR/150 in left field, and his recent work has been even less appealing.

There’s a lot to like about the bat, though. Bay has a career 137 wRC+, meaning his offensive production has been 37 percent above average once we account for park and league factors. He suffered a down 2007 season (97 wRC+) as he battled a knee injury, but Bay bashed to the tune of a 138 wRC+ in 2008 and a 142 wRC+ in 2009.

A highly disciplined hitter, Bay has walked nearly 13% of the time during his big league career, with a 19.4 outside swing percentage (the MLB average has been around 25 percent in recent years, though it was lower in 2004 and 2005).

His career ISO is .240, and checked in at .269 in 2009. Bay isn’t a big stolen base threat, but he snatched 13 bags in 16 attempts this past year. The Canadian has crushed fastballs (+1.70 runs/100 pitches), with positive run values against changeups (+0.46) and sliders (+0.42) as well. Curves haven’t been his kryptonite, but he’s at -0.21 runs per 100 tosses against the pitch.

How will Bay fare in Citi Field? It’s hard to make any bold conclusions based on just one year of park data, but Citi did play like a pitcher’s park in its inaugural season. According to the Bill James 2010 Handbook, Citi Field depressed run scoring eight percent compared to a neutral ball park. Home run production was stunted by four percent. Lefties (93 HR park factor) felt the effects more than righties (99 HR park factor).

That’s not as hospitable as Fenway, which has increased run scoring by 11 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. Homers are hard to come by because of the Green Monster (91 HR park factor), but doubles are plentiful. Fenway has boosted two-baggers by 45 percent since 2007.

Baseball-Reference’s Play Index Tool gives the option of taking a batter’s line and adjusting it, based on the offensive level of the league (NL or AL) and the run scoring environment of the ball park. According to the Play Index Tool, here’s what Bay’s 2009 season would have looked like, had it occurred in Citi Field:

Actual: .267/.384/.537, .269 ISO
Adjusted: .265/.380/.535, .270 ISO

The net impact doesn’t appear to be huge. On one hand, Bay is going from a clear hitter’s venue to a park that played as pitcher-friendly in 2009. But on the other, he’s moving back to the NL. Derek Carty of The Hardball Times showed last off-season that batters going from the AL to the NL receive a slight boost in contact rate, home run per fly ball percentage, singles and doubles.

Whether Bay is worth four years and $66M remains to be seen. But as for 2010, his move to Queens shouldn’t change his fantasy value tremendously. Luckily, you don’t have to worry about how a 34 or 35 year-old Bay will produce.

In 2009, Cincinnati’s outfielders featured lackluster lumber. George Foster, Cesar Geronimo and Ken Griffey Sr. they were not. Collectively, Reds fly catchers posted a .318 wOBA, second-worst in the N.L. Considering that the Padres (.317 wOBA) play in a park that’s anathema to offense, it’s safe to say that Cincy’s outfielders were the least potent in the Senior Circuit.

However, better days are on the horizon. The Reds have a plethora of intriguing outfield options, some already in the majors and others just around the corner in the minors. Here’s a rundown of who may be guarding the gaps at the GAP in 2010 and beyond.

In the majors

Jay Bruce

The Boss entered 2009 with plenty of fantasy hoopla, but his final .223/.303/.470 triple-slash looks disappointing. Or does it? At age 22, Bruce walked more, struck out less and hit for a near-.250 ISO. The potent lefty batter swung at fewer pitches out of the zone, took at cut at more in-zone offerings and made more contact. In other words, Bruce matured at the dish.

His BABIP was shockingly low, at .222. Yes, his line drive rate (13 percent) was also down considerably. But even so, Bruce’s Expected BABIP, based on HR, strikeouts, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, was .294. Bruce turns 23 in April. With his wrist healed, he’s poised to wreak havoc on pitchers in 2010. The fans seem well aware of Bruce’s talents, projecting a .271/.343/.497 line for Cincy’s right fielder.

Drew Stubbs

The 8th overall pick in the 2006 draft, Stubbs made a favorable first impression in Cincinnati following his call-up last August. The University of Texas alumnus turned in a .267/.323/.439 line in 196 plate appearances (101 wRC+), swiping 10 bags in 14 attempts. Stubbs displayed a surprising amount of pop in the majors, with 8 HR and a .172 ISO.

A 6-4, 200 pound righty batter, Stubbs has long been adored by scouts for his range in center field. His TotalZone defensive numbers are glowing, too. Stubbs’ bat, however, has been subject to much debate.

While displaying a keen eye at the plate, Stubbs had issues making contact with the Long Horns. Those swing-and-miss tendencies have manifested in pro ball, with the gifted defender whiffing in 23.4% of his PA in the minors. His big frame hasn’t translated to a lot extra-base thump (career .132 ISO).

However, Stubbs continues to work the count well (11.9 BB%), and his base stealing has gone from haphazard (23 SB, 15 CS in Low-A in 2007) to fantastic (46 SB, 8 CS in AAA in 2009). As a plus CF with plate discipline and quick feet, the 25 year-old looks like a quality starter for the Reds. His base thievery makes him relevant in fantasy circles.

Chris Dickerson

Dickerson’s 2009 season was cut short by shoulder and ankle injuries. In between the ailments, the 28 year-old performed up to expectations: he worked the count (13.3 BB%), punched out often (25.9 K%) and nabbed some bases (11 SB, 3 CS). Dickerson didn’t put a charge in the ball in the lower minors, but his work at AAA (.180 ISO) and with the Reds in 2008 gave some hope that the 6-3, 225 pound batter had found his power stroke. Alas, a near-fifty percent GB rate in 2009 produced a .098 ISO.

Dickerson straddles the line between highly useful 4th outfielder and acceptable starter (Chris helps himself with quality outfield D). Given his issues with lefty pitching in the minors (career .223/.328/.319 line), he figures to take on righties in a platoon role in 2010. If you’re in a deep NL-only league, you could do worse.

Wladimir Balentien

Acquired from Seattle last July for RHP Robert Manuel, Wlad has failed to translate his minor league feats of strength to the big leagues.

Balentien was Curacao’s version of Jeff Francoeur in the low minors, swinging at anything within a five mile radius of home plate. However, the big righty batter cleaned up his plate approach in AAA (10.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, .283/.359/.534 line).

Unfortunately, Balentien has been carved up in the majors. In 559 career PA, Wlad has a weak .221/.281/.374 line, with a 72 wRC+. He has been merely below-average against fastballs and changeups. But breaking stuff has baffled him entirely (-3.12 runs/100 against sliders, -1.5 vs. curveballs). As a result, Balentien’s 70% MLB contact rate is miles away from the 80-81% average.

You might think Wlad would be a decent platoon mate for Dickerson, but Balentien has a reverse platoon split. At 25, Balentien is entering a critical point in his career. He needs to tighten his strike zone and avoid looking like Pedro Cerrano against stuff that bends and breaks.

Laynce Nix

Outrighted by the Reds during the fall, Laynce was recently brought back to Cincy on a minor league deal. The 30 year-old lefty hitter is coming off of a season in which he popped 15 HR and posted a .236 ISO.

Once you factor in Nix’s hack-tastic approach (6.6 BB%) and favorable home ballpark, though, his offense was eight percent below the league average (92 wRC+; his career mark is a paltry 74). As a good defender who occasionally makes some loud contact against righties, Nix is a decent extra outfielder. But he’s not a fantasy option. If you’re stuck playing a guy with a career .277 OBP, you’re screwed.

Willy Taveras

What happens when a batting average-dependent player, with zero power or patience, doesn’t have those bloops and ducksnorts fall in? Ask Taveras. The 28 year-old was merely very bad at the plate in 2008 (74 wRC+). But in 2009, horror ensued.

Taveras’ bat was 51 percent worse than the league average (49 wRC+) as he battled a quad strain. Sure, he stole some bases (25 SB, 6 CS). But Taveras is the exact type of player that fantasy players should avoid. He gives production in one category, at the expense of severely hampering you in many others. Stubbs has Taveras’ speed and actually has a clue in the batter’s box. Willy figures to be either glued to the bench or in another city come spring.

Coming soon

Chris Heisey

A 17th round pick out of Division III Messiah (PA), Heisey vaulted up Cincinnati’s prospect list with an impressive 2009 season.

A career .298/.369/.460 hitter in the minors, Heisey possesses a broad, if short of star-caliber skill-set. He hits for some power (.162 ISO career, and a .214 ISO at AA in 2009), but he’s not a hulking over-the-fence threat. The right batter picks his SB spots well (career 84.3 SB%), though he wouldn’t be described as a burner. Heisey gets positive reviews for his outfield defense, but he’s likely a corner outfielder in the majors. The well-rounded prospect could be more selective at the dish: his career walk rate is a little over eight percent.

Baseball America said it best in its 2010 Reds Top 10 Prospects list: “Heisey could be termed a ‘cheap five-tool player.'” The 25 year-old isn’t far away from making his big league debut. He’s no star, but Heisey and his blend of talents could figure into Cincy’s left field picture.

Todd Frazier

At this point, few doubt that the former Rutgers star is going to pack a punch with his bat. The question is, where will his name be penciled in on the diamond? A 6-3, 215 pound righty hitter, Frazier has trekked all over the field.

He’s not going to stick at shortstop. The Reds had him pinballing from left field to first base to second base in 2009, with a couple appearances at the hot corner for good measure. Brandon Phillips, a plus defender at 2B who’s signed for two more years (with a club option for 2012), doesn’t figure to be moving. Scott Rolen is Reds property through 2012 following his restructured deal with the club.

As such, LF appears to be the place where Frazier (a career .296/.367/.491 minor league hitter) breaks into the majors. “Arm bar” or not, his bat figures to be potent.

Position switch?

Juan Francisco

The 6-2 lefty hitter made his major league debut last season, and has played almost exclusively at 3B in the minors. However, Francisco is tipping the scales at 210+ pounds already. His long-term viability at the position is in question. The 22 year-old has ample pop (.201 minor league ISO), but he has to do a better job of laying off junk balls. He has taken a free pass in just 3.8% of his PA, with a 23.4% K rate. Francisco would be best served spending a full season in AAA, lest big league pitchers take advantage of his eyes-to-ankles strike zone.

Yonder Alonso

A first-round pick in the 2008 draft out of Miami, Alonso has a sweet lefty swing and has batted .293/.378/.459 on the farm. His ’09 season was slowed by a broken hamate bone, but Alonso still reached AA. While Yonder is not far away, there’s a sizeable road block at first base in Joey Votto. Sadly, the 6-2, 215 pound Alonso runs like tree sap in winter. Baseball America said “Cincinnati has toyed with playing him at third base, but his limited range would be a liability.” Perhaps the Reds will put him in left field, stomaching his defensive mishaps in exchange for his quality lumber.

The Oakland Athletics recently added to the club’s jumble of outfielders, signing free agent Coco Crisp to a one-year, $4.75 million deal. Covelli’s contract has a $5.75M club option for 2011, with a $500K buyout.

The 30 year-old switch-hitter is coming off of a 2009 season that was curtailed by injuries to both shoulders. Crisp logged just 215 plate appearances, playing his last game on June 12th. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder, then had a procedure to clean up some damage in his left shoulder a short time later.

Much of Coco’s value is tied up in his legs. He’s a wonderful defender, having posted a career +5.8 UZR/150 in center field and a +23.5 UZR/150 in left field. So, he figures to be a favorite among Oakland’s pitching staff. But what about his offensive game?

It’s wise not to put a lot of stock in 200-some PA, but Crisp had an odd-ball year at the plate in 2009. His .228/.336/.378 line looks weak, but he suffered from a lousy .247 BABIP (his career average is .309). Coco posted a .150 ISO (.130 career average), while drawing a walk in a career-high 13.9 percent of his plate appearances (7.7 career average).

Crisp has some interesting plate discipline trends going on. His walk rate has climbed every year since 2004. The increases from ’04 to ’06 were negligible (from 6.8 percent to 7 percent). But he walked 8.7% in 2007 and 8.8% in 2008, and took plenty of pitches with an otherwise hack-happy Royals team in ’09.

Despite those previously low walk totals, Crisp has never really been a free swinger. His career outside swing percentage is 18.8, well below the 25 percent major league average. Instead, the one-time Cardinals prospect is seeing a lesser percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone:

Crisp’s In-Zone Percentage, 2002-2009 (MLB average that season in parentheses)

2002: 56.2 (54.6), +3% above the MLB average
2003: 56.1 (51.4), +9%
2004: 57.8 (55.1), +5%
2005: 56.1 (53.8), +4%
2006: 54.8 (52.6), +4%
2007: 51.9 (50.3), +3%
2008: 52.2 (51.1), +2%
2009: 50.9 (49.3), +3%

He’s still getting more pitches within the zone than most, but the relative difference compared to the big league average has lessened. Perhaps because of his bum shoulders, Crisp didn’t swing at much of anything in 2009. His 41.4 Swing% was his lowest mark since 2002. The average swing rate in 2009 was 45.2 percent.

Overall, Crisp has been a slightly below league-average batter during the course of his career, with a wRC+ of 97 (his offense, once adjusted for park and league, is about three percent below average).

He continued to display good wheels in ’09, swiping 13 bags in 15 attempts. Crisp notched at least 20 steals in each season from 2006 to 2008, and has nabbed bases at an 81.4% clip since ’06. Some guys swipe 20+ bags while actually harming their teams (Troy Tulowitzki is a huge asset, but Colorado might want to Super Glue his spikes to first base).

Not Crisp, though. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs, Coco rated as +1.26 runs above average in limited action in 2009. He was -0.07 in 2008, +2.15 in 2007 and +1.34 in 2006.

Early word is that Crisp will man center field, flanked by Rajai Davis in left field and Ryan Sweeney in right field.

Davis (+11.3 UZR/150 in the OF) and Sweeney (+17.1) also possess gazelle-like range, meaning few balls should drop in the Coliseum’s outfield pasture.

However, the purported arrangement would leave Scott Hairston, an average hitter (100 wRC+) and not too shabby a fly catcher himself (+6.3 UZR/150 in the OF), without a defined role. That’s to say nothing of Aaron Cunningham, Travis Buck and the recently acquired Michael Taylor. Tough luck, Eric Patterson.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for Oakland’s outfield options:

Crisp: .256/.333/.373, .313 wOBA, 19 SB/5 CS
Davis: .267/.326/.372, .309 wOBA, 31 SB/11 CS
Sweeney: .280/.344/.396, .327 wOBA, 6 SB/5 CS
Hairston: .251/.307/.436, .319 wOBA, 4 SB/2 CS
Cunningham: .255/.318/.401, .314 wOBA, 10 SB/6 CS
Buck: .256/.331/.403, .322 wOBA, 4 SB/2CS
Patterson: .260/.324/.400, .317 wOBA, 24 SB/7 CS
Taylor: .264/.317/.427, .322 wOBA, 9 SB/6 CS

With plus defense and an OK bat, Crisp projects to be around a two-win player in 2010 (the fans currently peg him at +2.1 WAR). For $5.25 million in guaranteed cash, that’s a good deal in a vacuum. But the question most people have is, what does Coco add that Sweeney and Davis already don’t? Perhaps a trade is in the offing. Or, maybe the A’s just don’t want to count on Hairston or Buck’s health and want Cunningham and Taylor to log more time in the minors.

Whatever the reason, Crisp looks to be set as a starter. His speed makes him a late-round consideration in mixed leagues. Though Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are groundball-oriented starters, Oakland’s batch of young arms looks a bit more appealing with three center field-worthy defenders patrolling the outfield.

With Christmas just a day away, it’s time for some last minute gift shopping. However, not everything that a fantasy baseball owner may want is available for purchase. Here is a list of items that all fantasy owners want, but are outside of their control.

1. A starting job for Scott Podsednik

Steals are always a problem in fantasy baseball. But if Scott Podsednik can find a starting job this offseason, there may be one more source of steals out on the market. In 587 trips to the plate for the White Sox last year, Podsednik stole 30 bases in 43 attempts, and hit .304 with 75 runs scored. Now that the White Sox have acquired Juan Pierre, Podsednik is out of a gig. Surely someone will have a home for the man who stole 70 bags in 2004, but will that home include a starting gig? One can only dream.

2. Russell Martin to get his act together

In 2007, Martin hit .293 with 19 homers and 21 steals, making him one of the most hyped catchers going into 2008. He took a small step back in ’08, hitting .280 with 13 homers and 18 steals. While it was a down year, he was still well liked going into drafts last year. But, in 2009, he hit .250 with 7 homers and 11 steals, making his fantasy season a forgetful one. To be fair to Martin, his line drive rate has increased in both 2008 and 2009, and his .285 BABIP in ’09 says he should bounce back in 2010. But, the loss of power is concerning, even if he can post a solid average and steal some bases.

3. Adrian Beltre to sign with the Red Sox

With the Mike Lowell deal falling through (for now), this looks like a pipe dream. He never got along with Safeco field, never hitting more than 26 homers in his 5 years in Seattle. If he moves to Fenway, one can only imagine the numbers he would put up. I’d be willing to bet on a 30 HR, .280 year from the third baseman.

What else would you like for Christmas this year that you can’t control?

Travis Snider is one of the best high school bats from the 2006 draft and he’s risen awfully quickly through Toronto’s minor league system. Snider shot through three levels in 2008 and finished that season with the big league club. He wrapped up 2008 with a .301/.338/.466 line in 73 at-bats with the Jays. Not bad for a 20-year-old.

This led to some lofty expectations for the 21-year-old Snider in 2009. He started the season with the big league club and had a rocky 99 at-bats in April and May. Snider hit .242/.292/.394 with three home runs and struck out in 25% of his at-bats over that span. The Jays demoted Snider to the minors so he could hone up on his skills and get his bat on track.

Snider would spend the next three months with the Jays Triple-A Las Vegas affiliate. He would mash to the tune of .337/.431/.663 (27% strikeout rate) with 14 home runs over 175 at-bats. Snider played a nice hitters park and also experienced some renown hitters parks on the road but his home/road splits in Triple-A are negligible. He bashed at home (1.045 OPS) and did even better (1.123 OPS) on the road.

In the middle of August the Blue Jays summoned the hulking 6-foot and 235 pound Snider back up to the big leagues. Snider showed some improvement in the power department and over his final 142 at-bats he hit .239/.351/.437 with six home runs accompanied with a 37% strikeout rate. The strikeout rate is very alarming.

The lefthanded swinging Snider has plus power and projects to hit for average down the road but he’s always been prone to the strikeout and has struggled with lefties at the upper levels. After hitting a slender .233/.295/.310 in 116 AA and AAA at-bats versus lefties in 2008 (credit Baseball America’s 2009 Prospect Handbook for that fact) Snider improved in 2009 at Las Vegas. There he hit .396/.473/.667 in only 48 at-bats but his big league showing against them (.225/.333/.275) in 40 at-bats points towards much needed improvement albeit the small sample sizes.

2010 will be Snider’s 22-year-old season and he has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. Snider is going to be a corner stone during the Jays rebuilding project and it’s a given fact that he’s going to strike out a lot but his plus power is extremely tantalizing.

Snider should be allowed to develop at the big league level during the entire 2010 season. His troubles with lefties and alarming strikeout rate which steadily declined when he was recalled in August point towards growing pains in 2010. While he may be good for 20-25 big flies next season I foresee his strikeouts being a big issue and don’t expect him to hit any higher than .260-.270. The whiffs and his below average speed and thick lower half will lower his BABIP from the shockingly high minor league BABIPs he compiled.

Snider’s a big piece of Toronto’s future and I expect good production from him eventually but he’s got a lot of work to do in 2010 at the big league level. Keep him off your draft boards for now and try nabbing him off of the waiver wire during the season and ride out his hot streaks before the strikeouts cool him down.

Fresh off of the best season of his career, RHP Javier Vazquez is headed back to the Bronx as part of a five-player deal. Along with lefty Boone Logan, Vazquez has been traded to the Yankees for a package including RHP Arodys Vizcaino, LHP Michael Dunn and OF Melky Cabrera.

Later today, we’ll take a look at the implications of the trade for Vazquez. For now, let’s take a look at what the deal means for Cabrera.

The 25 year-old switch-hitter was signed by the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic back in 2001. Cabrera rapidly rose through the farm system, reaching the majors as a 20 year-old back in 2005. His career minor league line is .296/.349/.420. Melky didn’t show a lot of might at the plate (.124 ISO) and he swung from his heels, walking in 7.1 percent of his plate appearances. He rarely whiffed, with a 13.6 percent strikeout rate.

Getting regular playing time with the Yankees in 2006, Cabrera held up surprisingly well. His wRC+ was 101, meaning he was slightly above-average with the lumber once park and league factors are considered. Melky’s work in 2007 and 2008, by contrast, was disappointing. His wRC+ dipped to 91 in ’07 and checked in at a measly 71 in ’08. Cabrera’s plate discipline eroded:

2006: 10.9 BB%, 22.3 Outside-Swing%, 63.5 Z-Swing%
2007: 7.3 BB%, 29.5 O-Swing%, 65.8 Z-Swing%
2008: 6.5 BB%, 28.4 O-Swing%, 63.1 Z-Swing%

(the MLB average for O-Swing% is 25, and the average for Z-Swing% is about 66 percent)

Melky’s walk rate dropped considerably, as he offered at more pitches off the plate in ’07 and ’08. He was tentative against pitches within the zone in 2008, giving him the unwelcome double-whammy of swinging at more balls and taking more strikes.

Cabrera’s power remained mild: a .111 ISO in 2006, .117 in 2007 and a paltry .092 in 2008. Opposing pitchers bullied him with fastballs:

Cabrera’s Runs/100 Value against fastballs, 2006-2008

2006: +0.77
2007: -0.15
2008: -1.41

With big problems against heaters, Melky popped the ball up a ton in 2008. His infield/fly ball percentage was 15.3, 13th-highest among batters with 400+ PA.

Despite two stagnant seasons, Cabrera entered 2009 at 24 years old. While he didn’t drop any jaws this past year, he did reverse some of those troubling trends in the batter’s box.

In 540 PA, Cabrera posted a 102 wRC+. His walk rate didn’t bounce back to that 2006 level, but he drew a free pass 8.1% of the time. Melky’s O-Swing% was a league-average 24.9, and he took a cut at a few more pitches thrown over the plate (63.7 Z-Swing%). While not slamming fastballs (-0.02 runs per 100 pitches), Cabrera at least didn’t have the bat knocked out of his hands. His infield/fly ball rate fell to a more palatable 10.3%.

Cabrera also displayed a little more thump, with a .142 ISO and 13 home runs. He didn’t show much of a home/away platoon split. Though he’s not a huge stolen base threat, Cabrera did chip in 10 steals in 12 attempts.

In Atlanta, Cabrera figures to get a crack at the left field job. He has plenty of experience in center, but he has a career -5.9 UZR/150 in the middle pasture. Nate McLouth (career -7.1 UZR/150 in CF) hasn’t rated all that well either, though he did post a positive mark in 2009. Right field figures to be Jason Heyward’s domain for the next decade. Jordan Schafer shouldn’t be counted out, either.

Melky could be part of a platoon with righty-hitting Matt Diaz. Over the past four seasons, Cabrera has an 88 sOPS+ against righty pitching (12 percent worse than the league average) and a 75 sOPS+ against lefties (25 percent worse).

Of course, one could make the argument that the 32 year-old Diaz would be the better option regardless of which side the pitcher winds up from. Since 2006, Diaz has a 105 sOPS+ against righties and a 135 sOPS+ vs. southpaws. CHONE’s 2010 projections for the two are pretty even:.284/.349/.427 for Cabrera, .280/.340/.436 for Diaz.

While the 19 year-old Vizcaino has the most star potential of Atlanta’s trade goodies, Cabrera is basically an average hitter with some defensive chops in an outfield corner. He’s not terribly exciting, but Melky has some value as a guy with a few years of team control and perhaps some development time left. For Cabrera to be a fantasy option, however, he will have to take another step forward offensively.