This was supposed to be a look at the ADP values in the tiers I created during my Check the Position series, but two pairs of players in the second center field tier caught my eye. These players lie right on fantasy fault lines: they are within a couple picks of each other, yet it seems that their value is disparate. I think you’ll be able to tell who I fancy (as the Brits say).

First up are two borderline second-rounders (though a bit less borderline if your league breaks out the outfield into three positions). Jacoby Ellsbury (20.36 ADP) goes earliest, and many fantasy managers may scoff at the number if they are accustomed to playing with plain “OF” positions, and they could be right. He is projected to retain his game-changing speed and put up a steals number north of 50. To put that in perspective, only three players crossed that threshold last year, and only one other player is projected to do so in most projection systems next year (Michael Bourn). There’s a good chance that Ellsbury finally nets triple-digit runs too, provided he remains atop the order and the Boston offense doesn’t take a step back with their renewed emphasis on defense. So Ellsbury will have some good qualities.

But what about Grady Sizemore (26.52 ADP), who is being picked almost a half-round later? If you were in the right draft spot, you could actually avoid Ellsbury and take Sizemore after the turn in the third round. I did it recently, and felt great about it. It’s not like Sizemore won’t steal any bases – although the amount is in question. He put up a career-low 6.0 speed score last year (5.0 is average) and the projections range from 20 steals to the Fans’ more optimistic 29 steals. He’s still young (27), and here’s a bet that he’ll touch the higher end of the steals projections. The power is no question – he should out-homer Ellsbury by at least a dozen home runs, and as many as 20. For whatever reason, his batting average won’t be as nice, either.

So how do you compare two different players like this? How much are Ellsbury’s extra singles and stolen bases worth? How much should you pay for Sizemore’s extra power? An excellent site, BaseballMonster.com, attempts to answer this question by measuring a player’s impact in each of the 5×5 categories in terms of standard deviations above the mean in said category. Using Sizemore’s projections for 2009 (2010 is not up yet, and the .276, 32 HR, 38 SBs only need to be scaled back a little in the speed category to make sense), his across-the-board positive contributions gave him a ranking as the ninth-best hitter. How did Ellsbury finish last year? 14th. (I report, you decide.)

Next up is Curtis Granderson (53.64 ADP), who already seems like an ADP value at his draft position. In fact, in that mock where I scored Sizemore in the third, I took Granderson after the turn in the fifth and called it a double-victory. Granderson is going from a park that had a .974 park factor for home runs last year to one that sported a 1.261 factor this year. He’s going to have a nice bounce-back season according to his BABIP (.276 last year, .323 career). Yes, his speed factor was lower than his career average, but the speed factor counts stolen bases, and it’s hard to steal bases when you aren’t on base (and it’s hard to get on base when you’re getting unlucky with the bouncing ball). All systems go for Granderson, despite his unfavorable splits against lefties, which may not be as bad as they first appear.

And yet, Josh Hamilton (52.85 ADP), who has further to bounce back, is getting picked before Granderson. This is really a head-scratcher, in the end. Perhaps fantasy managers are being swayed by that gaudy 130 RBI total a couple of years back, because his career-high in home runs (32) is only two more than Granderson’s, and he doesn’t really steal bases (at all). Again, we are left to ponder the value of Hamilton’s batting average, because the RBI are so team-specific, and Granderson may out-produce Hamilton in that category depending on his position in the batting lineup in the Bronx. I think the home run totals will be close, and Granderson will get the final laugh.

Two years ago it seemed as if B.J. Upton was on top of the world. He had just concluded his first full season in the big leagues at age 22 and he posted a .387 wOBA in 129 games. Then the Devil Rays became the Rays and Upton hasn’t been the same since.

Upton didn’t match his 2007 performance in 2008 but he clubbed seven homers in October to help Tampa Bay reach the world series. He experienced some shoulder woes that year and had surgery after the Rays were defeated by the Phillies in the series.

The stage was set last year for Upton to put together a huge season but the exact opposite happened. He missed the first week of the season and the left shoulder that he had operated on in the off season never regained full strength. This all amounted to an extremely frustrating season for Upton as he wrapped up the year with a paltry .310 wOBA over 560 at-bats. His .241/.313/.373 triple-slash was very underwhelming.

Upton has regressed over each of the past three seasons at the plate. Below is his wRC+ trend line over the past three seasons:

wRC+
2007: 139
2008: 119
2009: 89

That’s a consistent and scary trend. Upton’s production has decreased heavily from each season to the next since 2007 and it’s extremely unlikely that he continues such a dreadful trend in 2010.

Luckily for the Rays his plus defense still makes him a valuable player but if he could ever rediscover his stroke at the plate then he would be an extremely valuable player again.

Upton’s entering his 25-year-old season and there is much reason for optimism. A strong and healthy left shoulder should be helpful but there’s also some interesting and telling information that lays in the data. Upton will always strike out at a healthy clip but his career-low 9% walk rate is a point of concern. He walked at higher rates over the prior two seasons.

Upton’s BABIP cratered to .312 last season. Where is his true talent level? That’s hard to tell from his varying samples over the past three seasons. But the helpful BABIP calculator from the Hardball Times tells us another story. Here are his xBABIPs over the past three seasons according to the calculator:

2007: xBABIP- .338. Actual- .399. Difference- +61
2008: xBABIP- .353. Actual- .351. Difference- -2
2009: xBABIP- .338. Actual- .312. Difference- +26

The calculator cuts down on Upton’s BABIP spread over the past three years. The range of his xBABIPs is 15 while the range of his actual BABIPs is 87. There’s no doubt his 2007 BABIP padded his numbers and it set the performance bar pretty high for him at the time.

Despite the exact same (.338) xBABIPs in 2007 and 2009, Upton, hit the ball with much more authority in 2007. He slugged 24 homers in 2007 compared to just 11 last year and he had a career-low 15.4% line drive rate in 2009. His line drive rate was 19.6% in 2007. He also hit a career-high 13 pop ups last season.

All of Upton’s varying and perplexing batting lines can’t be chalked up to just lucky or unlucky BABIP variations. While it played a role there are reasons for such drastic performances and they cannot be easily explained. We may have a true conundrum on our hands and more data will be essential in determining who the real B.J. Upton is. These varying performances do suggest that his bum shoulder really could have played a big role in his lackluster production.

We do know from our nifty run values that Upton battered and bruised fastballs during his banner 2007 campaign. He’s never hit them so well ever since and this does help explain his performance dip. Perhaps that shoulder could have plagued him when he tried to get around on fastballs?

Upton also has funky O-Contact percentages over the past three seasons similar to his varying BABIPs. He’s made contact at a very below-average rate (except for 2008) when he offers at pitches outside of the strike zone. He was actually above-average in 2008 when he had a solid campaign at the plate.

Finally, what can we expect from Upton going forward? It’s hard to exactly say what Upton will do in 2010. He’s always had the ability, athleticism, and a mouth watering set of tools. Some scouts may not be surprised if he unleashes an MVP like season now that he’s in good health.

I think Upton’s 2008 season (.273/.383/.401) would be a nice modest projection (minus some OBP) for Upton and many of the projection systems here at Fangraphs have him projected in that area. It’s playing it safe but his BABIP should recover and that would push him closer to his 2008 totals.

Upton’s a toolsy player and he should be entering his prime. Barring health I’d expect the power to play and it’s fair to project him to drop around 20 homers next year. The 100 Fan Projections currently available have nailed The Upton Case right on the button. The Fans have him at .273/.363/.442 with 40+ stolen bases and I think that’s a very fair and accurate projection.

If you can grab Upton in the middle rounds of your draft then he would be a steal. But don’t be afraid to pop him a bit sooner than that. He’s ready to put that nightmarish 2009 to rest.

The New York Yankees have added another veteran piece to an already stacked ballclub, signing outfielder Randy Winn to a one-year deal, worth a reported $2MM. 2009 was the first season since 2006 that Winn was not more than a fringe option for an outfield spot on fantasy rosters. From 2006 through 2009, here are the numbers Winn put up with the Giants:

2006: .262/.324/.396, 11 HR, 10 SB, 82 R, 56 RBI
2007: .300/.353/.445, 14 HR, 15 SB, 73 R, 65 RBI
2008: .306/.363/.426, 10 HR, 25 SB, 84 R, 64 RBI
2009: .262/.318/.353, 2 HR, 16 SB, 65 R, 51 RBI

Winn’s 2009 wasn’t a huge shock, but it was lower than it should have been. His line drive rate was actually at a career high (or at least since 2002, when our data begins) last year, and his speed score was above his career average. He should have a bit of a bounce back at the plate, and that is reflected in most of the projection systems:

Bill James: .276/.337/.389, 7 HR, 13 SB
CHONE: .259/.317/.364, 8 HR, 12 SB
Marcel: .276/.334/.396, 8 HR, 16 SB
Fans: .277/.326/.385, 5 HR, 12 SB

With a move to Yankee stadium and a great lineup around him, he will get plenty of runs, and the home runs should come easier. However, this assumes he will be the starting left fielder, which is something we just don’t know at the moment. The best guess is that Brett Gardner will maintain the starting left field job, but with the uncertainty that surrounds this situation, his ADP will likely drop, making him a possible bargain.

Keep a close eye on this situation, but Winn could receive playing time in more than one way. If DH Nick Johnson gets hurt, Nick Swisher could slide into first base, allowing Teix to rest as the DH, and placing Winn in the outfield.

If you are in an extremely deep mixed league, or moderately deep AL-only league, Winn might be worth a flier.

Chicago Cubs signed OF Xavier Nady to a one-year, $3.3 million contract with $2.05 million in possible incentives.

Nady, 31, missed nearly the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in mid-April. It was the second time he has had the procedure: Nady was Tommy John’d back when he was a Padres prospect in 2002. His pact with the Cubs won’t become official until he passes a physical later this week, and a source in the MLB.com article by Adam McCalvy notes that it’s “not a foregone conclusion” that Nady will get a clean bill of health.

In 2008, Nady posted a career-best 131 wRC+, meaning his offense was 31 percent better than average once league and park factors are factored in. However, Nady’s .205 Isolated Power was nearly 30 points about his career average, and his .337 BABIP was 20 points above his career norm.

Because of those factors, most projection systems have Nady regressing back near his career 112 wRC+. Here are his 2010 forecasts:

CHONE: 106 wRC+
Bill James: 112 wRC+
The Fans: 113 wRC+
Marcel (weighted three-year average, with regression factored in): 114 wRC+

An aggressive batter, Nady has a 5.8 percent career walk rate, with an outside swing percentage around 30-31 percent from 2006-2008 (25% MLB average). You might hear a lot about Xavier’s platoon split, with his hitting against lefties trumping his numbers against same-side pitching. But, as Mitchel G. Lichtman reminds us, the spread in platoon splits among big league hitters isn’t massive. How a batter performs overall gives us a better indication of how he’ll perform in the future against both lefties and righties:

How a batter does against RH pitchers informs us on how he will likely do against LH pitchers and vice versa. Why? Because there is not much of a spread in true platoon splits among ML baseball players yet there is a large spread in overall true hitting talent among ML baseball players. So if we see a large platoon split, like for a player like Howard, it is likely a fluke. If a player does really well versus RH pitchers but terrible against LH pitchers, both the “really well” and the “terrible” numbers are likely fluky and the “truth” is somewhere in between.

Nady’s career path bears this out. Baseball-Reference offers a stat called sOPS+, which compares a batter’s performance in a given split to the league average. One-hundred is average, while anything over 100 means the batter did better than average. Nady compiled a 123 sOPS+ vs. righties from 2006-2008, slightly better than his 120 SOPS+ against left-handers.

With the Cubs, Nady will be the fourth outfielder behind Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome. He’s not draft-worthy right now, but Nady could see a decent amount of playing time if Soriano’s aching knees continue to hinder him.

Kansas City Royals signed free agent OF Rick Ankiel to a one-year, $3.25 million contract with a $6 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Ankiel has manned all three outfield spots during his second life as a position player, posting a -9.4 UZR/150 in 1,300+ innings in center field and a +6.7 UZR/150 in 600+ frames in the corners.

The lefty batter transitioned to the batter’s box in 2005, batting .259/.339/.514 in 369 plate appearances split between the Low-A Midwest League and the Double-A Texas League. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2006 season following surgery to repair a torn patellar tendon in his left knee (injury info from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool).

Ankiel resurfaced at Triple-A Memphis in 2007, batting .267/.314/.568 in 423 plate appearances. He didn’t show much restraint at the dish, drawing a walk just 5.9 percent of the time, but Rick’s Isolated Power was a robust .301. He earned a big league call-up in August, hitting .285/.328/.535 with a 124 wRC+ in 190 plate appearances. Ankiel popped 11 home runs, with a .250 ISO.

Getting regular playing time in 2008, Ankiel again had a 124 wRC+, with a .264/.337/.506 triple-slash in 463 PA. He was a free swinger (30.4 outside-swing percentage, compared to the 25% MLB average). But Ankiel still managed to draw a free pass 9.1 percent, as opposing pitchers threw just 45.4% of their offerings over the plate (49-51% MLB average). His ISO was .242.

While he was never placed on the DL, Ankiel battled shoulder, knee and groin injuries, and he was shut down in early September when he underwent sports hernia surgery (rosters expand in September, hence no DL stint).

This past year, Ankiel was often dinged up. He crumpled to the ground and had to be carted off the field after a collision with the center field wall on May 4. Ankiel went on the DL with a shoulder injury after the incident, and also dealt with an Achilles tendinitis and a groin strain.

When he did take the field, Ankiel didn’t pack the same punch offensively. In 404 PA, he had a .231/.285/.387 line, with a paltry 75 wRC+. Rick’s ISO dipped to .156, and he expanded his strike zone even further. Ankiel offered at 34.4 percent of pitches tossed out of the zone. Consequently, his walk rate declined to 6.4 percent.

Over the last three years, Ankiel has been five percent better than average with the bat (105 wRC+). Here are his projections for the 2010 season:

CHONE: .242/.298/.436, 93 wRC+
Bill James: .253/.310/.453, 100 wRC+
The Fans: .257/.316/.448, 101 wRC+

Personally, I would take the over on these forecasts, expecting something closer to his averages since 2007. Ankiel played last season at less than optimal health, something that the projection systems don’t take into account: they just know he played poorly. Of course, he could suffer through another injury-plagued campaign in K.C. His track record in that regard isn’t exactly pristine.

Ankiel is a good candidate to bounce back next season, assuming health. His aggressive, high-slugging ways are worth a flyer in A.L. only leagues.

Pittsburgh Pirates signed RHP Octavio Dotel to a one-year deal with an option for the 2011 season.

The deal is pending a physical, and financial terms aren’t yet known. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writer Dejan Kovacevic reports that Dotel is expected to earn about $3 million in 2010, however.

The 36 year-old righty will take over ninth inning duties from Matt Capps, who was non-tendered in December and inked a $3.5 million deal with the Nationals in early January.

Dotel missed the majority of the 2005 and 2006 seasons following Tommy John surgery, then posted a 3.73 xFIP in 30.2 IP between the Royals and Braves in 2007 while serving DL stints for a strained oblique and a right shoulder strain.

Since then, the former Met, Astro, Athletic, Yankee, Royal, Brave and White Sock has turned in back-to-back healthy, productive campaigns. Over the past two years, Dotel has punched out 11.62 batters per nine innings, second-best among relievers (Jonathan Broxton takes top honors). His control wavers (4.52 BB/9) and he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (34 GB%), but Dotel compiled a 3.72 xFIP with the South Siders in 2008 and 2009.

Pittsburgh’s new stopper flings his fastball over 80 percent of the time, supplementing the pitch with a low-80’s slider. Dotel’s Pitch F/X page suggests that he picked up the Cooper Cutter: there is a pronounced difference in vertical and horizontal movement between his four-seam fastball and cutter.

As Dave Allen showed, Dotel attacks hitters high in the zone with his heater, despite relatively modest velocity (he once sat in the mid-90’s, but now pops the gun at 92-93 MPH).

That up-the-ladder approach helps explain Dotel’s big whiff rates and fly ball tendencies: pitches high in the zone garner more swings and misses and fly balls, while pitches lower in the zone produce more contact and grounders. Dotel’s fastball(s) have a +0.40 run value per 100 pitches since 2008, while his slider checks in at +0.13. Octavio has the 12th-lowest contact rate among ‘pen arms over that time frame, at 71.9 percent.

Dotel’s new digs should help him, considering how often batters loft the ball against him when they manage to make contact. Per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, PNC Park suppressed home run production by 12 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. Compare that to his old home, U.S. Cellular Field. The Cell boosted taters by 25 percent compared to a neutral stadium over that same time period. CHONE projects a 3.72 FIP for Dotel next season, with 10.7 K/9 and 4.25 BB/9.

Pittsburgh Pirates claimed OF Brandon Jones off waivers from the Atlanta Braves.

Jones’ stay with the Bucs could be transient: the club apparently claimed the Braves farmhand off waivers with the intention of flipping him to another organization.

The 26 year-old lefty batter got cups of coffee with Atlanta in each of the past three seasons, posting an 81 wRC+ in 166 plate appearances. In 1,000+ PA at the Triple-A Level, Jones has a .277/.354/.420 triple-slash, walking in 11 percent of his trips to the plate and whiffing 18.3 percent.

While Baseball America rated him as the fourth-best prospect in the Braves’ system prior to the 2007 and 2008 seasons, Jones looks headed for a career as a handy fourth outfielder. He plays a nifty corner outfield according to TotalZone, and CHONE forecasts a .267/.342/.425 line in 2010.

Los Angeles Dodgers CF Matt Kemp just turned 25 toward the end of last season, yet he’s well established as a fantasy baseball force. The 6-3, 225 pound righty batter possesses an enthralling blend of power and speed, and he enters the 2010 season with an ADP of seven, according to mockdraftcentral.com.

Kemp clocked minor league pitching, posting a combined .311/.359/.519 triple-slash. His thunderous bat (.208 ISO) and fleet feet (20+ steals in 2005 and 2006) made the 2003 6th-round pick a highly acclaimed prospect. Kemp’s plate discipline left something to be desired, as he walked in just 6.2 percent of his plate appearances. But his youth and broad base of skills gave hope that he would learn to lay off junk pitches.

Despite swinging from his heels early in his career, Kemp was a highly productive player. He posted a 93 wRC+ in limited playing time in 2006, but boosted that number to 136 in 2007. While Kemp showed plus power in ’07 (.178 ISO), his BABIP was an astronomical .417. He also didn’t utilize his speed all that much, swiping 10 bags in 15 attempts. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric, Kemp cost the Dodgers a little more than two runs with his base thievery.

Kemp’s talents were clear, but he was more raw than an uncooked Dodger Dog. Since that point, however, L.A.’s center fielder has made considerable progress in refining his game:

2007: .342/.373/.521, 136 wRC+, .178 ISO, .417 BABIP, 5.2 BB%, 10 SB/ 5 CS
2008: .290/.340/.459, 116 wRC+, .168 ISO, .363 BABIP, 7.1 BB%, 35 SB/ 11 CS
2009: .297/.352/.490, 128 wRC+, .193 ISO, .349 BABIP, 7.9 BB%, 34 SB/ 8 CS

His walk rate has climbed three straight seasons. Not coincidentally, Kemp’s outside swing percentage has gone in the opposite direction: he took a cut at 36.4% of pitches out of the zone in 2007, 31.5% in ’08 and 28.5% this past year (the MLB average is about 25 percent).

Having learned to resist more of those pitcher’s pitches, Kemp hasn’t gotten behind in the count as much. His first-pitch strike percentage has also declined three years running: 62.1% in ’07, 61.5% in ’08 and 57.1% in ’09 (58-59% MLB average).

Kemp has smoothed out some of the rough edges on the base paths as well. After stealing bags at a 67% clip in 2007, he took 35 bases with a 76% success rate in ’08 and nabbed 34 in ’09, coming up safe 81% of the time. His Equivalent Stolen Base Runs figure has improved from -2.17 in 2007 to +0.09 in 2008 and +1.04 in 2009.

Many players ascend to the majors with superlative scouting reports, yet can’t seem to translate those considerable skills into production at the highest level. Not Kemp. Each season, he has sharpened his strike zone while becoming more efficient on the bases. Equipped with elite tools and baseball aptitude, Kemp should only get better from here.

Oakland Athletics acquired 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and 2B Eric Sogard from the San Diego Padres for OFs Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.

Kouzmanoff’s arrival means that Eric Chavez and Jake Fox have little chance of seeing time at the hot corner. Of course, Chavez has scarcely played over the past two seasons while suffering through back, shoulder and elbow injuries, while Fox probably shouldn’t go anywhere near a glove. Dallas McPherson, who combines Chavez’s durability with Fox’s minor league feats of strength, also loses out here.

The 28 year-old Kouzmanoff is under team control for the next three seasons. He’s a decent defender at third, but what about his bat?

Kouzmanoff is extremely aggressive at the dish, having drawn a free pass in just 4.9 percent of his plate appearances in the majors. His outside swing percentage was 31.3 last season, and sits at 32.3% in the big leagues (25 percent MLB average).

The former Indians prospect puts a charge into the ball, however, with a career .174 Isolated Power. Kouzmanoff has been a slightly-above hitter, once the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park are taken into account. His wRC+ is 103.

Moving out of Petco certainly won’t hurt Kouzmanoff’s value. But keep in mind that the Oakland Coliseum does a number on offensive production as well. Courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook, here are the three-year park factors for Petco and the Coliseum. A park factor of 100 is neutral, while anything below 100 favors pitchers.

Petco Park, 2007-2009

Runs: 76
2B: 75
3B: 93
HR: 73
RHB HR: 86

Oakland Coliseum, 2007-2009

Runs: 91
2B: 89
3B: 96
HR: 90
RHB HR: 77

CHONE projects Kouzmanoff to bat .259/.304/.431 next season.

Sogard, 23, spent 2009 at Double-A San Antonio in the Texas League. The lefty-swinging second baseman hit .293/.370/.400 in 530 plate appearances, controlling the strike zone (11.3 BB%, 10.3 K%) but displaying little thump (.107 ISO).

San Diego’s 2nd-round pick in the 2007 draft, Sogard has a career .292/.375/.417 line in the minors. His keen eye and quality defense give him a shot to be a regular, but the presence of Adrian Cardenas and Jemile Weeks in Oakland’s system means he’ll probably end up as a utility man.

Hairston, meanwhile, returns to San Diego after a sojourn with the A’s last summer. He was swapped to Oakland in July for RHPs Sean Gallagher, Craig Italiano and Ryan Webb.

The 29 year-old Hairston is cut from the same offensive cloth as Kouzmanoff: ample pop, but few free passes. He has a career walk rate of 6.8 percent, but also a .202 ISO. His wRC+ in the majors is 100. The former Diamondbacks prospect is often banged up, however, hitting the DL with a left shoulder injury in 2005, right biceps inflammation in 2006, an oblique strain in 2007, ligament surgery on his left hand in 2008 and a left biceps strain in 2009 (injury information from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool) CHONE forecasts a .254/.315/.448 triple-slash for Hairston in 2010. He’s under San Diego’s control through 2011.

Hairston rates as a quality defender in the outfield, and his arrival likely means that Chase Headley will transition back to third base.

Cunningham, 24 in April, has now been traded three times during his pro career. The Chicago White Sox took him in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but shipped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then included him in the Dan Haren deal in December of ’07.

He owns a career .309/.382/.493 line in the minor leagues. Cunningham doesn’t really excel in one particular area offensively. He possesses some power (.184 ISO), but doesn’t figure to be a massive extra-base threat in the majors. While not a total hacker, Cunningham has a mild 8.8 percent walk rate on the farm.

CHONE paints the picture of an average offensive player, as Cunningham’s 2010 projection is .263/.330/.420. His short-term role is clouded, with Kyle Blanks a 6-6, 285 pound science experiment in RF and Will Venable also figuring into San Diego’s outfield rotation. But he could work his way into more regular playing time if Hairston suffers another malady.

Hairston and Cunningham’s departures help clear Oakland’s outfield glut. Rajai Davis apparently has the left field job for the time being, but top prospect Michael Taylor figures to make his presence felt before the season is through.

Pirates signed OF Ryan Church to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, with $1.32M in possible incentives.

Church, 31, seems to be ticketed for a fourth outfield role in Pittsburgh. The club is leaning toward starting Garrett Jones in right field, giving former Mariners prospect Jeff Clement a chance to establish himself at first base. Brandon Moss also figures into the outfield rotation, though his feeble hitting last year (74 wRC+) puts him at the back of the line.

A plus defender in an outfield corner, Church fell flat offensively during an injury-riddled 2009 season in which he was traded from the Mets to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur. Atlanta non-tendered Church earlier this winter.

During his career, the lefty batter has been a slightly above-average hitter, with a 110 wRC+ and a .272/.345/.441 triple slash. However, his last healthy season was 2007, when he posted a 116 wRC+ in 530 plate appearances. Church hit the DL twice in 2008 with post-concussion syndrome, scarcely playing during the second half.

In 2009, Church was hampered by a strained hamstring and back spasms. His wRC+ was just 93 in 399 PA, as his power went MIA:

That .250 ISO in 2006 (in 230 PA) was an anomaly, but Church’s pop has declined four years running. He had a .191 ISO in 2007, a .163 mark in 2008 and a tepid .111 figure in 2009.

The former Expo, National, Met and Brave made more contact than usual this past year, though of the weak variety (career average and MLB average in parentheses):

Z-Contact: 92.9% (87.1% career, 87-88% MLB average)
Contact%: 82.2% (75.7% career, 80-81% MLB average)

Typically a quality fastball hitter (+0.97 runs/100 pitches seen), Church had a -0.12 run value against heaters this past season. It seems as though the injuries made him more content to simply but the bat on the ball, as opposed to making hard, authoritative contact. During his career, Church has hit to the opposite field 15.8 percent, to the middle field 53.1 percent and has pulled 31.1 percent. In 2009, he hit 20.1 percent to the opposite field, 51.5 percent to the middle field and pulled 27.6 percent.

CHONE projects Church to hit .263/.332/.411 in 2010, which comes out to an even 100 wRC+. He’s a nice little addition for the Bucs as a decent-hitting, rangy player acquired on the cheap. But Church needs to remain upright and hope for Jones to turn into a pumpkin to hold any fantasy value.

At 6-foot-6 and 285 pounds, Kyle Blanks looks like he would be more comfortable protecting Philip Rivers’ blind side than patrolling the outfield at Petco Park.

The right-handed hitting behemoth has a bat that’s big league ready, but his future position in San Diego depends upon whether Adrian Gonzalez (owed just $4.75 million in 2010, with a “duuuh” $5.5M option for 2011) remains Padres property. Blanks appeared in the outfield in just two rookie ball games prior to 2009. But he saw time in the outfield corners this past year in an effort to get his lumber in the same lineup as Gonzalez.

A 42nd round pick in the 2004 draft, Blanks was a draft-and-follow selection who eventually inked for $260,000. Scouts got few looks at him during his prep career in New Mexico, but the Padres were impressed with his work at Yavapai Junior College in Arizona.

Blanks wasted no time in showcasing his intriguing blend of patience, power and contact ability. In 200 plate appearances in the rookie level Arizona League in 2005, he hit .299/.420/.500. Baseball America said that Blanks had the best power in the organization, but also cautioned that “his approach at the plate is single minded-every swing is designed to hit the ball a mile.”

In 2006, Blanks batted .292/.382/.455 in 359 PA in the Low-A Midwest League. He drew a walk in 10 percent of his plate appearances, while punching out 22 percent of the time. Unfortunately, a leg infection ended his season in July. During the lay-off, Blanks ballooned to nearly 300 pounds. Baseball America dropped him from the 15th-best prospect in the Padres’ system to 29th, claiming that he needed “a big power year in high Class-A to re-establish himself as a prospect.”

Blanks did indeed turn in a big power year in 2007, with a 24 home runs and a .301/.380/.540 line in the High-A California League. Taking 531 trips to the plate, he walked 8.3 percent and improved his K rate to 18.5 percent. Blanks’ ISO soared from .163 in ’06 to .239 in ’07.

The Cal League’s Southern Division does feature some of the best hitter’s parks in the minors, but Lake Elsinore didn’t inflate offense. BA bumped Blanks up to 10th in the Padres’ system, ascribing some of that extra power to “adding a stride” to his swing “instead of just turning and rotating.”

Spending the 2008 season in the Double-A Texas League, Blanks bashed to the tune of .325/.404/.514 in 565 PA. A near-.370 BABIP helps to explain the batting average spike, but Blanks maintained most of his pop (.189 ISO) while taking ball four 9.4% and punching out 18.3%.

Having proved himself at the upper levels, Blanks jumped up to number one on San Diego’s prospect list prior to the 2009 season. He had slimmed down to 280 bills, and BA liked that fact that he “exhibit[ed] strong bat control instead of always selling out for power.” However, they also noted that such an approach cut into his ability to drive the ball at times. Blanks had a “tendency to hit with dead hands” because there’s “minimal load to his swing.”

At Triple-A Portland in 2009, Blanks hit .283/.393/.485 in 280 PA. His whiff rate climbed in the Pacific Coast League (27 percent), but Blanks’ secondary skills shined (14.3 BB%, .202 ISO).

He hit the ground running in San Diego as well, with a .250/.355/.514 line and a 138 wRC+ in 172 plate appearances. It’s unwise to infer too much from such a small sample, but Blanks hit 10 homers with a .264 ISO. He drew a walk 10.8 percent of the time, though he punched out 37.2 percent. Unfortunately, a right foot injury in late August ended his season early.

So, what should we expect from the 23 year-old Blanks in 2010? He’s currently penciled in as San Diego’s starting right fielder. Petco will do its best to sabotage his offense, as the park has depressed run scoring by 24 percent and homers by 27 percent compared to a neutral venue from 2007-2009. Even so, CHONE (which takes park effects into account) projects a .265/.353/.459 line next season, with a 119 wRC+.

It’s frustrating that Blanks will reside in such power and run-sapping environs, but he has the offensive skills to merit fantasy interest regardless. The only question is what position he’ll play.