Los Angeles Dodgers CF Matt Kemp just turned 25 toward the end of last season, yet he’s well established as a fantasy baseball force. The 6-3, 225 pound righty batter possesses an enthralling blend of power and speed, and he enters the 2010 season with an ADP of seven, according to mockdraftcentral.com.

Kemp clocked minor league pitching, posting a combined .311/.359/.519 triple-slash. His thunderous bat (.208 ISO) and fleet feet (20+ steals in 2005 and 2006) made the 2003 6th-round pick a highly acclaimed prospect. Kemp’s plate discipline left something to be desired, as he walked in just 6.2 percent of his plate appearances. But his youth and broad base of skills gave hope that he would learn to lay off junk pitches.

Despite swinging from his heels early in his career, Kemp was a highly productive player. He posted a 93 wRC+ in limited playing time in 2006, but boosted that number to 136 in 2007. While Kemp showed plus power in ’07 (.178 ISO), his BABIP was an astronomical .417. He also didn’t utilize his speed all that much, swiping 10 bags in 15 attempts. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric, Kemp cost the Dodgers a little more than two runs with his base thievery.

Kemp’s talents were clear, but he was more raw than an uncooked Dodger Dog. Since that point, however, L.A.’s center fielder has made considerable progress in refining his game:

2007: .342/.373/.521, 136 wRC+, .178 ISO, .417 BABIP, 5.2 BB%, 10 SB/ 5 CS
2008: .290/.340/.459, 116 wRC+, .168 ISO, .363 BABIP, 7.1 BB%, 35 SB/ 11 CS
2009: .297/.352/.490, 128 wRC+, .193 ISO, .349 BABIP, 7.9 BB%, 34 SB/ 8 CS

His walk rate has climbed three straight seasons. Not coincidentally, Kemp’s outside swing percentage has gone in the opposite direction: he took a cut at 36.4% of pitches out of the zone in 2007, 31.5% in ’08 and 28.5% this past year (the MLB average is about 25 percent).

Having learned to resist more of those pitcher’s pitches, Kemp hasn’t gotten behind in the count as much. His first-pitch strike percentage has also declined three years running: 62.1% in ’07, 61.5% in ’08 and 57.1% in ’09 (58-59% MLB average).

Kemp has smoothed out some of the rough edges on the base paths as well. After stealing bags at a 67% clip in 2007, he took 35 bases with a 76% success rate in ’08 and nabbed 34 in ’09, coming up safe 81% of the time. His Equivalent Stolen Base Runs figure has improved from -2.17 in 2007 to +0.09 in 2008 and +1.04 in 2009.

Many players ascend to the majors with superlative scouting reports, yet can’t seem to translate those considerable skills into production at the highest level. Not Kemp. Each season, he has sharpened his strike zone while becoming more efficient on the bases. Equipped with elite tools and baseball aptitude, Kemp should only get better from here.

Oakland Athletics acquired 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and 2B Eric Sogard from the San Diego Padres for OFs Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.

Kouzmanoff’s arrival means that Eric Chavez and Jake Fox have little chance of seeing time at the hot corner. Of course, Chavez has scarcely played over the past two seasons while suffering through back, shoulder and elbow injuries, while Fox probably shouldn’t go anywhere near a glove. Dallas McPherson, who combines Chavez’s durability with Fox’s minor league feats of strength, also loses out here.

The 28 year-old Kouzmanoff is under team control for the next three seasons. He’s a decent defender at third, but what about his bat?

Kouzmanoff is extremely aggressive at the dish, having drawn a free pass in just 4.9 percent of his plate appearances in the majors. His outside swing percentage was 31.3 last season, and sits at 32.3% in the big leagues (25 percent MLB average).

The former Indians prospect puts a charge into the ball, however, with a career .174 Isolated Power. Kouzmanoff has been a slightly-above hitter, once the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park are taken into account. His wRC+ is 103.

Moving out of Petco certainly won’t hurt Kouzmanoff’s value. But keep in mind that the Oakland Coliseum does a number on offensive production as well. Courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook, here are the three-year park factors for Petco and the Coliseum. A park factor of 100 is neutral, while anything below 100 favors pitchers.

Petco Park, 2007-2009

Runs: 76
2B: 75
3B: 93
HR: 73
RHB HR: 86

Oakland Coliseum, 2007-2009

Runs: 91
2B: 89
3B: 96
HR: 90
RHB HR: 77

CHONE projects Kouzmanoff to bat .259/.304/.431 next season.

Sogard, 23, spent 2009 at Double-A San Antonio in the Texas League. The lefty-swinging second baseman hit .293/.370/.400 in 530 plate appearances, controlling the strike zone (11.3 BB%, 10.3 K%) but displaying little thump (.107 ISO).

San Diego’s 2nd-round pick in the 2007 draft, Sogard has a career .292/.375/.417 line in the minors. His keen eye and quality defense give him a shot to be a regular, but the presence of Adrian Cardenas and Jemile Weeks in Oakland’s system means he’ll probably end up as a utility man.

Hairston, meanwhile, returns to San Diego after a sojourn with the A’s last summer. He was swapped to Oakland in July for RHPs Sean Gallagher, Craig Italiano and Ryan Webb.

The 29 year-old Hairston is cut from the same offensive cloth as Kouzmanoff: ample pop, but few free passes. He has a career walk rate of 6.8 percent, but also a .202 ISO. His wRC+ in the majors is 100. The former Diamondbacks prospect is often banged up, however, hitting the DL with a left shoulder injury in 2005, right biceps inflammation in 2006, an oblique strain in 2007, ligament surgery on his left hand in 2008 and a left biceps strain in 2009 (injury information from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool) CHONE forecasts a .254/.315/.448 triple-slash for Hairston in 2010. He’s under San Diego’s control through 2011.

Hairston rates as a quality defender in the outfield, and his arrival likely means that Chase Headley will transition back to third base.

Cunningham, 24 in April, has now been traded three times during his pro career. The Chicago White Sox took him in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but shipped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then included him in the Dan Haren deal in December of ’07.

He owns a career .309/.382/.493 line in the minor leagues. Cunningham doesn’t really excel in one particular area offensively. He possesses some power (.184 ISO), but doesn’t figure to be a massive extra-base threat in the majors. While not a total hacker, Cunningham has a mild 8.8 percent walk rate on the farm.

CHONE paints the picture of an average offensive player, as Cunningham’s 2010 projection is .263/.330/.420. His short-term role is clouded, with Kyle Blanks a 6-6, 285 pound science experiment in RF and Will Venable also figuring into San Diego’s outfield rotation. But he could work his way into more regular playing time if Hairston suffers another malady.

Hairston and Cunningham’s departures help clear Oakland’s outfield glut. Rajai Davis apparently has the left field job for the time being, but top prospect Michael Taylor figures to make his presence felt before the season is through.

Pirates signed OF Ryan Church to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, with $1.32M in possible incentives.

Church, 31, seems to be ticketed for a fourth outfield role in Pittsburgh. The club is leaning toward starting Garrett Jones in right field, giving former Mariners prospect Jeff Clement a chance to establish himself at first base. Brandon Moss also figures into the outfield rotation, though his feeble hitting last year (74 wRC+) puts him at the back of the line.

A plus defender in an outfield corner, Church fell flat offensively during an injury-riddled 2009 season in which he was traded from the Mets to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur. Atlanta non-tendered Church earlier this winter.

During his career, the lefty batter has been a slightly above-average hitter, with a 110 wRC+ and a .272/.345/.441 triple slash. However, his last healthy season was 2007, when he posted a 116 wRC+ in 530 plate appearances. Church hit the DL twice in 2008 with post-concussion syndrome, scarcely playing during the second half.

In 2009, Church was hampered by a strained hamstring and back spasms. His wRC+ was just 93 in 399 PA, as his power went MIA:

That .250 ISO in 2006 (in 230 PA) was an anomaly, but Church’s pop has declined four years running. He had a .191 ISO in 2007, a .163 mark in 2008 and a tepid .111 figure in 2009.

The former Expo, National, Met and Brave made more contact than usual this past year, though of the weak variety (career average and MLB average in parentheses):

Z-Contact: 92.9% (87.1% career, 87-88% MLB average)
Contact%: 82.2% (75.7% career, 80-81% MLB average)

Typically a quality fastball hitter (+0.97 runs/100 pitches seen), Church had a -0.12 run value against heaters this past season. It seems as though the injuries made him more content to simply but the bat on the ball, as opposed to making hard, authoritative contact. During his career, Church has hit to the opposite field 15.8 percent, to the middle field 53.1 percent and has pulled 31.1 percent. In 2009, he hit 20.1 percent to the opposite field, 51.5 percent to the middle field and pulled 27.6 percent.

CHONE projects Church to hit .263/.332/.411 in 2010, which comes out to an even 100 wRC+. He’s a nice little addition for the Bucs as a decent-hitting, rangy player acquired on the cheap. But Church needs to remain upright and hope for Jones to turn into a pumpkin to hold any fantasy value.

At 6-foot-6 and 285 pounds, Kyle Blanks looks like he would be more comfortable protecting Philip Rivers’ blind side than patrolling the outfield at Petco Park.

The right-handed hitting behemoth has a bat that’s big league ready, but his future position in San Diego depends upon whether Adrian Gonzalez (owed just $4.75 million in 2010, with a “duuuh” $5.5M option for 2011) remains Padres property. Blanks appeared in the outfield in just two rookie ball games prior to 2009. But he saw time in the outfield corners this past year in an effort to get his lumber in the same lineup as Gonzalez.

A 42nd round pick in the 2004 draft, Blanks was a draft-and-follow selection who eventually inked for $260,000. Scouts got few looks at him during his prep career in New Mexico, but the Padres were impressed with his work at Yavapai Junior College in Arizona.

Blanks wasted no time in showcasing his intriguing blend of patience, power and contact ability. In 200 plate appearances in the rookie level Arizona League in 2005, he hit .299/.420/.500. Baseball America said that Blanks had the best power in the organization, but also cautioned that “his approach at the plate is single minded-every swing is designed to hit the ball a mile.”

In 2006, Blanks batted .292/.382/.455 in 359 PA in the Low-A Midwest League. He drew a walk in 10 percent of his plate appearances, while punching out 22 percent of the time. Unfortunately, a leg infection ended his season in July. During the lay-off, Blanks ballooned to nearly 300 pounds. Baseball America dropped him from the 15th-best prospect in the Padres’ system to 29th, claiming that he needed “a big power year in high Class-A to re-establish himself as a prospect.”

Blanks did indeed turn in a big power year in 2007, with a 24 home runs and a .301/.380/.540 line in the High-A California League. Taking 531 trips to the plate, he walked 8.3 percent and improved his K rate to 18.5 percent. Blanks’ ISO soared from .163 in ’06 to .239 in ’07.

The Cal League’s Southern Division does feature some of the best hitter’s parks in the minors, but Lake Elsinore didn’t inflate offense. BA bumped Blanks up to 10th in the Padres’ system, ascribing some of that extra power to “adding a stride” to his swing “instead of just turning and rotating.”

Spending the 2008 season in the Double-A Texas League, Blanks bashed to the tune of .325/.404/.514 in 565 PA. A near-.370 BABIP helps to explain the batting average spike, but Blanks maintained most of his pop (.189 ISO) while taking ball four 9.4% and punching out 18.3%.

Having proved himself at the upper levels, Blanks jumped up to number one on San Diego’s prospect list prior to the 2009 season. He had slimmed down to 280 bills, and BA liked that fact that he “exhibit[ed] strong bat control instead of always selling out for power.” However, they also noted that such an approach cut into his ability to drive the ball at times. Blanks had a “tendency to hit with dead hands” because there’s “minimal load to his swing.”

At Triple-A Portland in 2009, Blanks hit .283/.393/.485 in 280 PA. His whiff rate climbed in the Pacific Coast League (27 percent), but Blanks’ secondary skills shined (14.3 BB%, .202 ISO).

He hit the ground running in San Diego as well, with a .250/.355/.514 line and a 138 wRC+ in 172 plate appearances. It’s unwise to infer too much from such a small sample, but Blanks hit 10 homers with a .264 ISO. He drew a walk 10.8 percent of the time, though he punched out 37.2 percent. Unfortunately, a right foot injury in late August ended his season early.

So, what should we expect from the 23 year-old Blanks in 2010? He’s currently penciled in as San Diego’s starting right fielder. Petco will do its best to sabotage his offense, as the park has depressed run scoring by 24 percent and homers by 27 percent compared to a neutral venue from 2007-2009. Even so, CHONE (which takes park effects into account) projects a .265/.353/.459 line next season, with a 119 wRC+.

It’s frustrating that Blanks will reside in such power and run-sapping environs, but he has the offensive skills to merit fantasy interest regardless. The only question is what position he’ll play.

RotoWorld reports today that Jack Cust will re-up with the Oakland A’s for $2.5 million, a slight paycut from his $2.8 million salary last year. Considering that he is pretty much a DH these days (-23.1 UZR/150 career in the OF), that salary seems just about right for a guy that produced 8.8 batting runs above replacement last year. The market seems to be paying under $4 million a win, and the A’s will pay about a million less than they ‘should’ given those market characteristics… if Cust performs at the same level in 2010.

And there’s the rub. Fantasy owners, too, will be wondering if Cust can put up another season with a .350+ OBP and 25+ home runs – especially those owners in OBP leagues that could use a late-round value pick with some pop.

Cust has long been a “three true outcome player” in that his career walk (17.8%), strikeout (39.5%) and home run (5.8%) rates comprise the results for the bulk of his at bats. There’s been a little play in those rates as he’s aged, though. Last year, Cust put up three-year lows in walk rate (15.6%), strikeout rate (36.1%) and contact rate (69.2% last year, 66.8% career). Still, those look like enough like his career numbers to say with certainty that Big Jersey (6’1″, 240 lbs, born near Somerville, NJ) will walk, strikeout, and hit the ball hard next year.

He definitely has what most call “old-people skills.” These are skills, like walking, whiffing and swinging for the fences, that players develop more as they age. Some players begin with these skills, and most develop them, and they stand in opposition to more “young-people skills” like speed and contact that you either have or you don’t. Bill James famously found in his New Bill James Historical Abstract that players with these “old” skills peak earlier and decline faster. Here’s the money quote, taken from a passage about Tom Brunansky, courtesy Tommy Bennett and a fruitful and lively twitter conversation today:

The outfielders that had “old players skills” did in fact peak earlier and fade faster than the players who had “young players skills.” From ages 21 to 23 the two groups of players were equal in value, 614 Win Shares for the “Young” players, 615 for the “Old” players. But from ages 24-26 the players with “old” skills had 7% less value (1482-1379), and as time passed the gap widened steadily… from ages 31-33 they had 10% less value (1340-1207).

From the mouth of a legend. We can’t take that number as a lock-down predictor, but it seems safe to say that a 31-year-old Cust is at least 10% more likely to decline faster than a player with a nice batting average and tons of steals. And there are some other signs of decline there anyway: his HR/FB and line drive rates are in a three-year decline, which would be more worrisome if they weren’t still decent last year (17.7% HR/FB and 19.8% line drive rate in 2009).

So that trip down memory lane was a roundabout way to say that fantasy owners should probably not expect a “bounce-back” season from Cust, and shouldn’t draft him expecting a return to his .500 slugging percentage days. The older he gets, and the closer that home run total inches to 20, the less likely he will provide enough value elsewhere to offset his always-poor batting average. Cust is an exponentially riskier play as every year passes, thanks to starting out with “old people skills.” (In case you were wondering, Adam Dunn just turned 30.)

While it’s not yet official, a trade sending 1B Casey Kotchman to the Mariners for utility man Bill Hall is expected to be announced soon. All of the details aren’t in: Boston could also receive a prospect and some cash in the transaction. For now, let’s focus on how the deal impacts Kotchman for the 2010 season.

Twenty-seven in February, Kotchman has devolved from a prized talent in the Angels’ farm system to a singles-hitter at a position where power rules the day.

The 13th overall pick in the 2001 draft displayed exceptional strike zone control in the minors, walking in 10.7 percent of his plate appearances and whiffing just 9.1 percent while posting a .324/.406/.492 triple-slash.

Kotchman’s power potential was subject to much debate, however. Baseball America was hopeful: in its 2005 Prospect Handbook, BA predicted that the lefty batter with a silky-smooth swing would “hit at least 20-25 homers annually once he learn[ed] to lift the ball.” That pop didn’t manifest in the minors, though, with Kotchman’s season-best HR total topping out at ten and his career ISO on the farm standing at .168.

After cups of coffee with the Angels in 2004 and 2005 (a combined 91 wRC+ in 271 PA), Kotchman missed nearly the entire 2006 season while batting mononucleosis. He finally got a shot at everyday playing time in 2007, and the results were fairly promising. In 508 PA, Kotchman compiled a 121 wRC+. He controlled the zone (10.7 BB%, 9.7 K%), while actually flashing some extra-base thump as well, with a .172 ISO.

Since then, Casey has been far from mighty at the bat:

In 2008, Kotchman was mid-season trade bait used to acquire Mark Teixeira from Atlanta. Between the Angels and the Braves, Kotchman hit a mundane .272/.328/.410 in 573 PA. His wRC+ dipped to 96. Kotchman’s walk rate fell to 6.4 percent, as his percentage of pitches seen within the strike zone spiked from 36.2% in 2007 to 48.8% in 2008 (the MLB average has ranged from 49-52% over the past few seasons).

Last offseason, we noted Kotchman’s disturbing propensity to chop the ball into the infield dirt. His near-53 percent groundball rate was commensurate with some of the speedier players in the game. As a plodding first baseman, Kotchman stuck out like a sore thumb.

Unfortunately, Kotchman continued to put the ball on the ground a ton in 2009. His 51.4 ground ball rate was highest among first basemen with 350+PA. As a guy on the low end of the defensive spectrum with a career 2.7 Speed Score, Kotchman isn’t doing much with those grounders. His batting average on grounders was .185 in 2009, and his career average is .188. For reference, the A.L. average last season was .240.

Traded again mid-season in 2009 (this time to Boston for Adam LaRoche), Kotchman batted just .268/.339/.382 with a 92 wRC+ in 431 PA. His walk rate did bounce back to 10.4 percent, but his ISO declined from 2008’s already mild .137 to .114. Overall, MLB first basemen hit .277/.362/.483 in 2009, with a .206 ISO.

Kotchman just doesn’t pull the ball with any authority. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, here are Kotchman’s spray charts over the past three seasons. Focus on that last number, sOPS+. It compares a batter’s performance to that of the league average in a given split. 100 is average, above 100 is above average and below 100 is below-average.

Over the past three seasons, the average AL lefty batter has pulled the ball about 26 percent of the time, slugging .756 on pulled balls. Kotchman has pulled the ball about 31 percent of the time. But his slugging percentage is just .603. As this spray chart from Trip Somers’ site shows, nothin’ much happens when Casey pulls the ball:

Moving to Seattle won’t do Kotchman’s bat any favors. While Safeco isn’t total death to lefties like it is to righty batters, it still punishes southpaw hitters. Per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco has depressed lefty home runs by five percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009.

Kotchman brings some value to the table with his glove (career +4.4 UZR/150), but it’s hard to recommend him in fantasy leagues. Maybe he’ll finally start to pull the ball with some force and make good on those scouting prognostications. But there just isn’t much evidence to suggest that’s going to be the case. CHONE projects a .274/.339/.405 line next season. You can do better than that at first base.

One of 2009’s biggest surprises, Ben Zobrist was an afterthought and hardly drafted before the year began. Now, he is in everyone’s mind and has moved up the rankings fast. Most players that breakout the year before and are underrated become overrated almost overnight. Using ADP data provided by Mock Draft Central, we can easily take a look at where Zobrist is going, and whether he is over/under/correctly valued going into 2010.

At the time that I am writing this, on average, Zobrist is currently the 8th second baseman off the board and is being drafted at around pick number 60. The second baseman being drafted before him (Aaron Hill) is taken 12 picks ahead of Zobrist, and the second baseman after him (Dan Uggla) goes a whopping 27 picks later.

Because he was a utility man in 2009, Zobrist should also be available as an outfielder in all leagues. Currently, he is the 16th outfielder off the board, sandwiched between Curtis Granderson (56) and teammate B.J. Upton (60). Even better, Zobrist started 6 games at shortstop and played a total of 13 games at that position, giving him extra eligibility in some leagues (like Yahoo!) that may carry over into the 2010 season. If that is the case, Zobrist would be the sixth SS off the board, after Derek Jeter (51) and teammate Jason Bartlett (104).

It’s hard to put a price on a player’s ability to play two, and possibly three positions and provide a solid offensive return. Because we are talking about Zobrist, and this is FanGraphs, I suppose we need to talk some stats. Fine. Below are Zobrist’s stats from 2008 and 2009, along with the Fan Projections for 2010.

2008: .253/.339/.505, 12 HR, 3 SB, 32 R, 30 RBI, .255 BABIP, .311 xBABIP
2009: .297/.405/.543, 27 HR, 17 SB, 91 R, 91 RBI, .330 BABIP, .327 xBABIP
2010: .282/.378/.470, 22 HR, 14 SB, 94 R, 107 RBI

Fans are expecting a drop-off in power and steals, and a decrease in batting average. Not good. However, those numbers still aren’t terrible, and better than most second baseman on the market. For a shortstop, I like a little more speed and a higher average, but you can always compensate at other positions. As an outfielder, the numbers aren’t great. The RBI’s and runs are very good, but I’d rather play him at an infield position.

Overall, I’d be willing to take Zobrist in the middle round six, a little after where he is projected to go. For once, a breakout player doesn’t seem to be too overvalued going into drafts. Zobrist isn’t underrated anymore, and you’ll have to pay market value for his services on your fantasy team.

Cleveland Indians signed OF Austin Kearns and OF/1B Shelley Duncan to minor league contracts.

Have you seen Kearns’ bat? He misplaced it in 2008, and hasn’t been able to find it since. The former Red won’t 30 until May, but his production dropped like a lead balloon over the past two seasons. Injuries have often plagued Kearns, but he posted a 118 wRC+ in a 2006 season split between Cincinnati and Washington and a 107 wRC+ with the Nationals in 2007. He topped the 600 PA mark both years.

Since then, Kearns has a ghastly 75 wRC+ while showing the durability of antique porcelain. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X Injury Tool, the 6-3 righty batter missed time in 2008 following right elbow surgery, while serving another DL stint for a stress fracture in his left foot. 2009 was tainted by right thumb surgery. Kearns still drew some walks in ’08 and ’09, but his power vanished:

Kearns’ ISO, by year

Kearns has been a quality defensive outfielder during his career, which helps his chances a bit. But he was an absolute wreck at the plate in 2009, with a sub-70 percent contact rate and a middle infielder-like .109 ISO. More than anything, he needs to show up to spring training in one piece.

Duncan, meanwhile, is a minor league slugger from the Yankees organization known for giving some hellacious forearm bumps.

The 30 year-old right-handed batter stands a hulking 6-5, 225 pounds, and holds a career .271/.368/.533 line in 1,200+ PA at the Triple-A level. He has drawn walks at a 12.8% clip, while striking out 19.9%. Duncan’s ISO in Triple-A is a robust .262.

Duncan has received minimal major league playing time, batting .219/.290/.411 with an 84 wRC+ in 163 PA. How would Duncan’s minor league mashing play at the highest level? Here are his Major League Equivalent (MLE) lines from 2007-2009, courtesy of Minor League Splits:

2007
AAA: .291/.379/.565 in 333 AB
MLE: .250/.322/.468

2008
AAA: .239/.363/.483 in 215 AB
MLE: .200/.299/.395

2009
AAA: .277/.371/.548 in 451 AB
MLE: .237/.316/.454

Duncan’s raw numbers look great, but his MLEs paint the picture of a league-average hitter because of his age. CHONE is more optimistic, projecting a .252/.336/.486 triple-slash in the majors.

According to ESPNChicago’s Bruce Levine, free agent OF Marlon Byrd signed a three-year, $15 contract with the Chicago Cubs. Byrd figures to patrol center field on the North Side, pushing Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.

Byrd’s career was on life support when he latched on with the Texas Rangers back in 2007. The stocky right-handed batter once was a hot-shot prospect with the Philadelphia Phillies, and he posted a 116 wRC+ while playing good D as Philly’s everyday center fielder in 2003.

It was all downhill from there, however, as Byrd’s offense plummeted. He posted a grisly 58 wRC+ in 2004, a 92 wRC+ between the Phillies and Nationals in 2005 and a 79 wRC+ with Washington in 2006.

After tearing up AAA Oklahoma to begin the ’07 season, Byrd was called up by the Rangers and played all three outfield positions. He managed a 110 wRC+ in 454 plate appearances, though his batting average on balls in play was a whopping .370. Byrd swung from his heels, chasing 32 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average) and 71.5% of in-zone pitches (66% MLB average). He walked in just 6.5% of his plate appearances.

Given that hacking and his good fortune on balls put in play, Byrd looked like a good bet to regress in 2008. Instead, he turned in a career year at the plate. Byrd was still aggressive (29.8 O-Swing%, 71.2 Z-Swing%). But opposing pitchers placed only 49.6% of their offerings within the strike zone against him, compared to 54.6% in 2007 (the MLB average is about 50 percent). As a result, his walk rate climbed to 10.2%. In 462 PA, Byrd posted a 125 wRC+.

In 2009, Byrd had a 28.5 O-Swing%, but his walk rate fell considerably (5.5 BB%). He was positively giddy against in-zone pitches. Byrd hacked at 74.1% of pitches thrown over the plate, one of the 15 highest rates among batters (his In-Zone% was a little higher than in ’08, at 50.6). His park and league-adjusted offense was still eight percent above average, though, as he popped a career-high 20 home runs. Byrd’s ISO was .196, well above his career .143 mark.

Over his past three seasons, Byrd has a combined .295/.352/.468 triple-slash, with a 114 wRC+. The 32 year-old has experienced a nice second act, after seemingly falling off the map toward the middle part of the decade.

Byrd showed a big home/away split from 2007-2009 (.309/.375/.522 at home, .281/.328/.414 away). While some might point to those splits and declare that Byrd is a .280/.330/.410 player, simply taking his away numbers and discarding the home figures isn’t a particularly useful way to go about making a projection. That’s the statistical equivalent of throwing out the baby with the bath water.

As Byrd’s wRC+ figures show, he’s been 10-15% better than the average batter over that time period. Factoring in Marlon’s age, one might expect him to be slightly above average with the lumber in 2010.

CHONE projects Byrd to bat .271/.333/.431 in 2010, while ZiPS spits out a .283/.339/.450 line. The difference in home ballparks shouldn’t be a jarring one. According to The Bill James Handbook, Wrigley Field has increased run scoring by 13 percent and home runs by 10 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009, while Arlington has boosted runs by seven percent and homers by 13 percent. Arlington is more hospitable to righty power, though (110 HR park factor for RHB from 2007-2009, compared to 103 for Wrigley).

Overall, CHONE forecasts Byrd to be worth +2 runs with the bat, while playing a slightly below-average center field (-3 runs). If he reaches those marks, he would be worth around 2 WAR in 2010. That sort of sums up Byrd’s overall game: average. He’s an OK option in NL-only formats, but you should aim higher in mixed leagues.

In a shocking turn of events, the San Francisco Giants recently signed a 30-something free agent to help fill a void in the lineup. An unpredictable one, that Brian Sabean. Mark DeRosa, 35 in February, will likely man the hot corner for the Giants on most nights, shifting Pablo Sandoval to first base.

After reportedly seeking a three-year deal worth as much as $27 million total, DeRosa had to settle for a milder two-year, $12 pact with San Francisco. The University of Pennsylvania product once was an obscure utility man with the Atlanta Braves, posting a combined 81 wRC+ from 1998 to 2004 (his park and league-adjusted offense was 19 percent worse than average).

However, DeRosa emerged as the Swiss Army Knife of ball players with the Texas Rangers. He didn’t play a whole lot in 2005, with a wRC+ of 102 in 166 plate appearances. But the righty batter was penciled into the lineup card daily in 2006, posting a 108 wRC+ while bouncing around the diamond (second base, third base and right field, with a few cameos at shortstop, first base and left field).

Those contributions helped land DeRosa a three-year, $13M deal with the Chicago Cubs prior to the 2007 season. He replicated his Lone Star State production in the Windy City in ’07, with another 108 wRC+ season while playing every position on the diamond at some point, save for catcher and center field (he spent most of his time at 3B and 2B).

2008 would be a career year for DeRosa, who bopped to the tune of a 128 wRC+ while doing his usual “wherever ya need me, skip” act in the field. He walked in a career-high 12.4 percent of his PA, compiling a .196 ISO to boot.

After the season, the Cubs shipped DeRosa to the Cleveland Indians for a package of young arms including Christopher Archer, John Gaub and Jeff Stevens. With the team’s playoffs aspirations obliterated by mid-season, however, the Tribe dealt DeRosa to the St. Louis Cardinals in late June for relief prospects Chris Perez and Jesse Todd.

DeRosa suffered a left wrist injury in ’09, serving a DL stint for a torn tendon sheath just after being acquired by the Cards. He played through the ailment once he was activated in mid-July. Overall, DeRosa batted .250/.319/.433 in 576 PA, with a 101 wRC+. Despite the bum wrist, he actually retained much of his power stroke, posting a .183 ISO on the season.

His plate discipline wasn’t as sharp, though. Perhaps it was the wrist injury, as such maladies sap a player’s bat control. Or maybe it was just the normal decline we expect to see in a mid-30’s player coming off of career-best campaigns. Whatever the cause, DeRosa took a cut at more pitches off the plate, swung at fewer offerings within the strike zone and made less contact:

2007
19.5 Outside-Swing%, 71.3 Z-Swing%, 82.5 Contact%

2008
20.9 O-Swing%, 66.3 Z-Swing%, 79.3 Contact%

2009
23.5 O-Swing%, 65.2 Z-Swing%, 77.9 Contact%

(The MLB averages in recent years are: 25% for O-Swing, 66% for Z-Swing and 81% for Contact)

DeRosa should be roughly a league-average hitter in 2010, though there’s downside potential because of his age. He played mostly third base in ’09, but logged enough appearances in the outfield to qualify there as well. Unfortunately, DeRosa likely lost second base eligibility in many leagues (he appeared in just two games at the keystone).

CHONE projects DeRosa to hit .262/.343/.415 next season, which is about average offensive production. Bill James calls for a similar .260/.335/.418 line, while the fans are slightly more hopeful with a .273/.346/.436 forecast. DeRosa is an adequate option in NL-only leagues, but there’s no upside with decent hitter, in his mid-30’s, coming off of an injury.