Randy Winn to the Yankees

by
January 28, 2010

The New York Yankees have added another veteran piece to an already stacked ballclub, signing outfielder Randy Winn to a one-year deal, worth a reported $2MM. 2009 was the first season since 2006 that Winn was not more than a fringe option for an outfield spot on fantasy rosters. From 2006 through 2009, here are the numbers Winn put up with the Giants:

2006: .262/.324/.396, 11 HR, 10 SB, 82 R, 56 RBI
2007: .300/.353/.445, 14 HR, 15 SB, 73 R, 65 RBI
2008: .306/.363/.426, 10 HR, 25 SB, 84 R, 64 RBI
2009: .262/.318/.353, 2 HR, 16 SB, 65 R, 51 RBI

Winn’s 2009 wasn’t a huge shock, but it was lower than it should have been. His line drive rate was actually at a career high (or at least since 2002, when our data begins) last year, and his speed score was above his career average. He should have a bit of a bounce back at the plate, and that is reflected in most of the projection systems:

Bill James: .276/.337/.389, 7 HR, 13 SB
CHONE: .259/.317/.364, 8 HR, 12 SB
Marcel: .276/.334/.396, 8 HR, 16 SB
Fans: .277/.326/.385, 5 HR, 12 SB

With a move to Yankee stadium and a great lineup around him, he will get plenty of runs, and the home runs should come easier. However, this assumes he will be the starting left fielder, which is something we just don’t know at the moment. The best guess is that Brett Gardner will maintain the starting left field job, but with the uncertainty that surrounds this situation, his ADP will likely drop, making him a possible bargain.

Keep a close eye on this situation, but Winn could receive playing time in more than one way. If DH Nick Johnson gets hurt, Nick Swisher could slide into first base, allowing Teix to rest as the DH, and placing Winn in the outfield.

If you are in an extremely deep mixed league, or moderately deep AL-only league, Winn might be worth a flier.





 

Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.

38 Comments
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JayCee
14 years ago

Atrocious signing. The Yanks OF is now as weak ofensively as any in the AL.

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JayCee
14 years ago
Reply to  JayCee

To the mindless down-raters,

name a weaker OF offensively.

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ReindeerGames
14 years ago
Reply to  JayCee

The As, WhiteSox, Tigers, and Royals.

NEXT!!

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RollingWave
14 years ago
Reply to  JayCee

just based on offense?

Tigers (Magglio / Raburn last year 117 /132 , unless you think the completely unproven Austin jackson will come close to Curtis Granderson’s #),

White Sox (i’m not even sure who their starting OFs are anymore, Pierre / Jones / Quinten? even assuming completely healthy Quinten how much do you really think Jones and Pierre can hold up laste year’s # with a full year?)

Houston (last year Bourn / Pence / Lee was 110/117/119 ) kinda a wash that could go either way.

Padres ( no exp needed)

D-backs (did you see what their OF outside of Upton did last year? probably not, since no one else did )

Twins (maybe , depend on Delmon and wether Cudder holds up, could go either way basically a wash )

Royals ( no need to explain there)

A’s

Marlins unless Stanton comes up and establish quickly.

Cubs if Soriano doesn’t bounce back significantly.

Depending on who they put in CF, the Brewers might not be better despite having Braun.

Reds OF was horrendous last year (3 guys that got most playing time was Tavaras / Nix / Bruce ), even assuming improvements from Bruce it still looks very bad.

Giants (obvious)

Pirates unless you think Garret Jones is for real.

So that’s 14 teams right there that’s either a wash or clearly worse. which, like I said, puts them at about average . and that’s assuming Curtis Granderson stays at 100-110 WRC+ .

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DavidCEisen
14 years ago
Reply to  JayCee

So the Yankees outfield is made up of: Swisher, Granderson, and Gardner.

According to the projections Gardner is an average hitter to slightly above and both Granderson and Swisher are projected to be around 120-130 wRC+.

So figuring that they are about 40 wRAA, they should be better than the Royals, White Sox, Mariners, Athletics, Blue Jays, Rays, Twins, and Tigers. They probably will be better than the Orioles, Rangers, and Angels.

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JayCee
14 years ago
Reply to  JayCee

David-

Gardner rates a “+” apart from his ability to score because the Yankees are batting behind him? I love the guy as a player, but I have to question what “average” is for him to rate a “+” after adjusting for team and ballpark.

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JayCee
14 years ago
Reply to  JayCee

Rolling Wave-

I’ll take the Padres OF this year over the Yanks.

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DavidCEisen
14 years ago
Reply to  JayCee

JayCee, wRC+ is based on wOBA, so the lineup around him doesn’t effect it.

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Matt B.
14 years ago
Reply to  JayCee

Blue Jays… Wells, Snider? and ?

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RollingWave
14 years ago
Reply to  JayCee

Jaycee : you might want to actually tell us who the Padres are actually going to start out there.

I’m assuming they’ll start Headly / Gwynn / Venable. the 3 of them combined for 108/97/113 . even assuming some advancing due to youth ( though Gwynn already exceeded expectation by a mile last year and I doubt he get any better than 100 at very best.)

The Yankees, assumign they start Gardner / Granderson / Swisher most of the time, would likely throw up something around 100/115/120 between them in a fairly conservative estimate.

sure, we could argue that Gardner and Gywnn is a wash and I wouldn’t really oppose that. but really? Headly and Venable over Granderson and Swisher?

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JayCee
14 years ago
Reply to  JayCee

RW-

Hit “refresh”- their OF is Blanks, Hairston and Venable. It’s very nice.

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