Coming into the year, we weren’t expecting Ichiro to have another top-20 fantasy season, and for good reason. He only stole 26 bases in 2009, and expecting a 36 year old to continue to flash top notch speed is asking too much. To refresh your memory, this is what I had to say about Ichiro in the Second Opinion:

Ichiro’s main value, his speed, is slowly dying. Even though he missed time at the start of the season with a bleeding ulcer, he probably would have fallen short of the 30 steals mark for the first time in his career…another .300 season with 90 runs and 25 stolen bases is on the horizon for Ichiro in 2010

To date, Ichiro has stolen 20 bases in 27 tries, while batting .336/.389/.437 in 313 plate appearances. When I said he’d steal 25 bases, I had no idea he’d reach that mark by the All-Star break. So, what gives? Last season, the Mariners attempted 122 steals over a 162 game season. This year, they have attempted to swipe a bag 77 times in only 70 games. You don’t need to be a math major to see that the Mariners are running at a much higher rate than before. This is likely because the Mariners offense lacks a big time slugger to drive runners in, in conjunction with the offseason addition of another speed threat in Chone Figgins. If the guys on the basepaths don’t make things happen, the team is less likely to have runners cross home plate.

ESPN’s Player Rater ranks Ichiro as the 21st best fantasy player thus far. While I’m not sure what that means (seeing that ESPN doesn’t explain their methods), it is much higher than I had him ranked coming into the year (39th). As long as his steal rate doesn’t turn Nyjeresque, Ichiro is still a top talent in fantasy leagues. His high average combined with his high at-bat totals can help your team support bigger sluggers, which is a huge plus in roto leagues.

Some more fun facts about Ichiro to get you through the day:

– Ichiro is better than you, and he knows it.
– Last season, Ichiro’s batted ball percentages (LD/GB/FB) were 18.2/55.6/26.2. This year? A remarkably consistent 18.0/55.5/26.5.
– Ichiro’s strikeout rate is the worst of his career, while his walk rate is the second best he’s ever had.
– Ichiro is a snappy dresser.
– Ichiro’s ISO (.101) is exactly the same as his career rate.
– Ichiro’s current wRC+ ranks 2010 as his second best offensive season (tied with 2001, his rookie year).
– Throughout his entire career, Ichiro has gotten a hit on half of his bunts.
– Ichiro replaced Jay Buhner long ago, and I still haven’t forgiven him.

Okay, it’s not that recent of a promotion anymore, but Nava is still new enough to the bigs that he’s owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues despite a rather splashy debut. The Red Sox have been without Jacoby Ellsbury basically all year because of a rib issue, Mike Cameron is playing through an abdominal tear, and J.D. Drew is now battling a hamstring issue (though he should be back this week). Needless to say, playing time in Boston’s outfield is plentiful at the moment for Mr. Nava, who has started every single game in leftfield since being called up on the 12th.

Through 30 plate appearances, the former independent leaguer is hitting a cool .370/.433/.667 (.455 wOBA) with five doubles, five runs scored and seven driven in. Even if you take away that storybook first pitch grand slam, he’s still batting a robust .346/.414/.577. His minor league track record tells you the guy can flat out hit, so this isn’t coming out of nowhere. Nava’s career minor league batting line sits at .342/.434/.545 in close to 1,200 plate appearances, and he hit .294/.364/.492 in 220 Triple-A plate appearances before taking Fenway by storm.

How is he getting done? Well, 52.6% of the balls he’s put in play have been airborne and a whole bunch of those balls are dropping in for hits, 47.4% to be exact. Nava had much more reasonable rates of 41.8% fly balls and a (still high) .389 BABIP in the minors according to the great MinorLeagueSplits.com. It’s also worth noting that the switch hitter performed much better against righthanders in the bush leagues, but so far has come to the plate just four times against southpaws in the majors. Unless the baseball gods smile down on Nava like they have been for seemingly his entire career, a regression to normalcy is coming.

That said, there’s no reason we can’t ride out Nava’s hot streak, especially in an AL-only or deeper mixed league. He’s likely to keep playing every day, but if you do take the plunge and pick him up, make sure you watch the matchups. Boston has dates with a pair of good lefthanders this week (Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito), so you’re going to have to pick your spots. CHONE predicted a .256/.325/.361 batting line before the season, but I can definitely see him maintaining a .280-ish AVG with doubles power going forward. Given Boston’s lineup, the RBI and run scoring opportunities should be plentiful.

CF Nyjer Morgan entered 2010 as a coveted fantasy pick. The former Pirates prospect, shipped along with LHP Sean Burnett to Washington last summer for OF Lastings Milledge and RHP Joel Hanrahan, batted .307/.369/.388 in 2009. With a .340 wOBA, 42 steals and superb defense, the man who dubbed himself “Tony Plush” posted a 4.9 WAR season. His 2010 pre-season ADP, according to KFFL, was 122nd overall.

So far, Tony Plush has kinda been a bust. Realistically, fantasy players should have expected at least a mild downturn at the plate — Morgan had a .355 BABIP last season. Granted, he’s a burner, as his career 7.4 Speed Score in the majors and .355 minor league BABIP from 2005-2008 attest, but both CHONE and ZiPS figured he wouldn’t be quite as prolific on balls put in play:

ZiPS: .281/.339/.359, .334 BABIP, .318 wOBA
CHONE: .281/.345/.367, .332 BABIP, .321 wOBA

Unfortunately, Morgan has fallen well short of those projections: he’s got a .248/.310/.326 triple-slash in 287 PA, with a .283 wOBA that puts him in the same company as out-making luminaries like Orlando Cabrera and Jason Kendall. What has changed between Morgan’s breakout ’09 and heartbreaking 2010? Not much, actually:

2009: 7.5 BB%, 15.8 K%, .081 ISO, 19.4 LD%, 54.3 GB%
2010: 7.0 BB%, 17.4 K%, .078 ISO, 24.1 LD%, 53.9 GB%

Morgan’s walking slightly less and punching out a bit more, with just about no change in his “power” or ground ball rate. His rate of line drives hit is actually much higher this season. Yet, his BABIP has fallen from last year’s .355 to just .300 in 2010. Nyjer’s expected BABIP, based on his rate of homers, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and grounders, is .341. That’s much closer to those pre-season forecasts, and I think we can safely conclude that Morgan has been unlucky on balls in play this season. He’s been more of a .290/.350/.370-type hitter than the absolute cipher on display so far.

So, Morgan should bounce back at the plate — his ZiPS rest-of-season line is more circumspect, but still calls for improvement (.273/.330/.352, .309 wOBA). But there’s another area of his game that’s been off this season — Morgan has been a liability on the base paths.

Last year, he swiped bases at a 71.2 percent clip (42 for 59). In 2010, Nyjer has 15 steals, and he’s on pace for a mid-thirties SB total. However, he has been caught red-handed ten times. That gives him a paltry 60% success rate, and he has also been picked off three times already, after getting caught napping four times last season. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric, Morgan has cost the Nats about three runs on steal attempts this season. So what, you say. But, Morgan costs your team potential runs, too, when he heads back to the dugout with his head hung low after getting gunned down at second or third.

While Morgan has surely drawn the ire of many who expended a mid-round pick on the basis of his wheels, this might be a good time for others to pick him up at a discount. He’s no great shakes offensively, but he’ll almost assuredly improve at the plate. And, it’s very likely that a 29-year-old player with a career 75% stolen base success rate in the minors and a 70% major league success rate from 2007-2009 won’t continue to be such a hazard when he tries to nab a bag. Morgan’s no fantasy stud, but he should hit passably and provide speed-starved players with more efficient base thievery from this point forward.

Before I set off on my move to California and give my teary-eyed goodbyes to New York City, there’s time for one last waiver wire piece. I’ll have to take a break for the next week as things are about to get really hectic, but as I’ve been wont to do, I’ll focus on some deep league options. Because if you’re here, you’re probably playing in at least one league where you’ll consider these guys, warts and all.

Jeff Francis, Colorado (13% owned)
I’ll have to admit I was skeptical when Brian Joura touted Francis as a $1 option in March. I remained skeptical when he showed a sub-five strikeout rate after taking a year off for surgery. In my heart of hearts, I still am skeptical. But here’s the thing, Francis is doing some things right. He’s not getting that lucky, as his BABIP (.282) and strand rate (71.1%) are fine. He’s just not walking people (1.88 BB/9), and keeping the ball on the ground at a career-high rate (50.8%). The pitching mix has changed a bit, as he’s throwing his bad fastball (-39.9 runs career) the least he has in his career (57.4% this year, 62.6% career), and that has to count as a positive. Of course, the bee in the bonnet is his career-best home run rate (0.47 HR/9), which is built on the back of his HR/FB number (4.8%) that xFIP (obviously) doesn’t think is sustainable (4.26 xFIP, compared to his 3.44 FIP). Here’s the thing, though. Not only is that xFIP tied for his career-best, but you could easily double Francis’ home runs to date (two) and he’d still be having a great year. Francis is a decent option for your bench in most formats, although I’d retain my skepticism in mixed leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Kansas City (4% owned)
If you’re in a deep league with five outfield spots, you might just own someone worse than Rick Ankiel. As with many deep league waiver candidates, there are plenty of reasons not to like the converted pitcher who is roaming the outfield in powder blue. His major fault has even been magnified this year, as his poor strikeout rate (26.3% career) has crossed over into terrible territory this year (35.5%). No matter, you don’t own him for his batting average, you own him for his power, like (ostensibly) the Royals do. The best news about Ankiel is that it looks like that power is back (.210 ISO) after a down year last year (.156 ISO). He also has had a decent rehab assignment, hitting for both power and average in Triple-A Omaha. If he comes back and stays healthy, he could put in more at-bats than ZiPs RoS predicts (232) considering the season is not yet at the halfway-point. In deep leagues with divided outfielders, getting 15 or so home runs from your CF might be worth taking the batting average hurt. The power should be there, and therefore the value.

Oakland Athletics acquired OF/1B Conor Jackson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for RHP Sam Demel.

Jackson, 28, is under team control through the 2011 season. The 2003 first-round pick out of Cal established himself as a fairly patient hitter with mid range pop over the 2006-2008 seasons, hitting a combined .292/.371/.450 with a .361 wOBA. Adjusting for park and league factors, Jackson’s lumber was 14 percent better than average (114 wRC+). That’s not overwhelming for a guy who mainly manned first base, but Jackson controlled the zone (10.1 BB%, 12.8 K%), showed adequate power (.158 ISO) and improved his fantasy appeal by qualifying in the outfield during the ’08 season.

The past two years haven’t been nearly as kind. Jackson battled Valley Fever in 2009, limiting him to just 110 PA. He batted .182/.264/.253, with a .251 wOBA. Slowed by a right hamstring injury that required a DL stint in April, Jackson’s got a .298 wOBA and a .238/.326/.331 triple-slash in 172 PA this season. His ISO, .071 in 2009, hasn’t cracked triple-digits in 2010 either (.093).

In Oakland, Jackson figures to take over most of the playing time in left field. He’s worth a flyer in AL-only formats, but it’s hard to know how he’ll hit in the green and gold, given the uncertainty regarding his health. If Jackson is moving past the illness that sapped his strength, he could return to the .350-.360 wOBA range. Given that he has rated as about average in an outfield corner to this point, that would make Jackson a decent starting option for the A’s.

Mixed-leaguers probably want a player with higher upside and greater certainty, though. It’s also worth noting that Jackson will be moving from Chase Field, which (per the Bill James Handbook) increased run-scoring 15 percent and homers seven percent compared to a neutral park over the 2007-2009 seasons, to the Coliseum, which depressed runs nine percent and dingers 10 percent over the same time frame. That won’t help his chances of regaining fantasy relevance.

With Jackson no longer in the desert, Gerardo Parra will presumably get the majority of PT in left for the Diamondbacks. The 23-year-old lefty batter, rated as the 88th-best prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to 2009, has a .281/.319/.400 major league line in 609 PA over the past two seasons. The Venezuelan native has a .309 wOBA and a 82 wRC+, as he has rarely walked (5.4 BB%) or laced the ball into the gaps (.119 ISO).

Swinging early and often getting behind in the count (career 64.4 first pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58% MLB average), Parra has hit grounders at a 53.5% clip. He’s a good defender in an outfielder corner, but his offensive ceiling is subject to debate –Parra’s not uber-projectable at 5-11 and 195 pounds, and he didn’t display much thump in the minors (career .126 ISO). He was generally young for the levels at which he played, but Baseball America capped his home run power at the low-to-mid-teens, remarking that “if he has to move to an outfield corner he starts to look like a tweener.”

Demel, meanwhile, is expected to join a wretched D-Backs pen that ranks dead last in xFIP (5.16) and Win Probability Added (-6.88). A third-round pick in the 2007 draft out of TCU, Demel has missed lots of lumber as a pro (10 K/9) but has usually struggled to locate (4.5 BB/9). While the righty didn’t crack BA’s list of top 30 A’s prospects heading into 2010, Demel has added a cut fastball to his low-90’s fastball, changeup and erratic slider. In 28.2 IP with Triple-A Sacramento, the 24-year-old had 8.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a characteristically strong ground ball rate (49.4%; his overall GB% in the minors is 54.5). Demel’s worth monitoring, particularly if Arizona shops Chad Qualls to a team that focuses more on his very good track record and 3.56 xFIP this season instead of his bloated ERA.

Pittsburgh Pirates recalled OF Jose Tabata from Triple-A Indianapolis.

Tabata, 21, is a polarizing prospect. His backers see a precocious talent who makes score of contact and possesses more athleticism than one would expect from his compact frame. Those more skeptical of Tabata’s upside point out uncertainty about his age and limited power potential.

Signed by the Yankees out of Venezuela for $550,000 in 2004, Tabata burst on to the prospect scene by showing an exciting blend of hitting skills and speed in A-Ball over the 2006 and 2007 seasons. As a 17-year-old in the Low-A South Atlantic League, he hit .298/.377/.420 in 363 plate appearances. He had decent strike zone control (8.3 BB%, 20.7 K%) and a pinch of power (.122 ISO), while swiping 15 bases in 20 attempts. In the High-A Florida State League in ’07, Tabata had a .307/.371/.392 triple-slash in 456 PA. He walked 7.3%, punched out 16.9% and had a .086 ISO, going 15-for-22 on the base paths.

Those numbers don’t stand out at first glance, but are more impressive when the context is considered. Tabata was (apparently) the same age as high school sophomore in ’06 and a junior in ’07, and the FSL is a pitcher-friendly circuit. Baseball America rated Tabata as the 27th best talent in the minors prior to 2007 and the 37th-rated prospect leading up to 2008.

That ’08 season wouldn’t be a banner one for him, though. Bumped up to Double-A, Tabata posted feeble numbers at the plate, angered the Yankees by leaving the park during an April game and tweaked his hamstring. He was shipped to Pittsburgh (along with Ross Ohlendorf, Daniel McCutchen and Jeff Karstens) that July for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. Tabata picked up the pace in the Eastern League after the trade, finishing the season with a .277/.345/.388 line in 442 PA. He walked 8.1%, struck out 17% and had a .111 ISO, with 18 SB and two CS. BA knocked him down its list somewhat, but Tabata still cracked the top 100 (#75).

Last year, the 5-11, 210 pound righty batter began the year back at Altoona. Though he was caught red-handed on the bases often (7 SB, 6 CS), Tabata hit .303/.370/.404 in 254 PA. His secondary skills were again mild (7.9 BB%, .111 ISO), but he punched out just 11% of the time.

Tabata was promoted to the Triple-A International League later that summer, and that’s where he opened 2010 as well. In 400 combined PA at the level, he owns a .296/.358/.419 line, with an 8.3% rate of free passes taken, a 14.8% K rate and a .123 ISO. Happily for fantasy folks, Tabata has recovered his base stealing prowess (29 SB, 8 CS, a 78.4% success rate).

Assuming the right hamstring cramp he suffered last night isn’t serious, Tabata figures to see a lot of playing time — Jeff Clement has been banished to Triple-A, and Garrett Jones will man first base more frequently.

His long-term value is hard to gauge, however. Is Tabata 21? Not even the Pirates seem to know for sure. Will he ever hit more than the occasional double? He doesn’t have a projectable frame, as he’s under six feet and has already filled out physically. Will his stolen base totals translate to the highest level? Tabata’s not a speed demon, with tick-above-average wheels. There are a wide range of possibilities here.

Tabata’s someone to watch in NL-only leagues, and he has some value in keeper formats. But keep in mind that there are a plethora of potential outcomes — he could be anything from a 21-year-old with room to develop offensively to a maxed-out 24-year-old who needs to play plus defense to be worthy of an everyday spot in the lineup.

Few players in recent memory have disappointed more than Delmon Young. The first overall pick in the 2003 draft hammered minor league pitching to the tune of .318/.363/.518, displaying top-shelf power while taking on pitchers several years his senior. His plate approach was raw (6.3 BB%). But Young was ranked as a top three prospect by Baseball America each season from 2004 to 2007, and he elicited Albert Belle comparisons for his ability to drive the ball.

Young got a cup of coffee with Tampa Bay back in 2006, with a .316/.336/.476 line in 131 plate appearances. He swung at positively everything (50.3 O-Swing%, 0.8 BB%), and his BABIP was .370. But even so, it’s impressive for a 20-year-old to manage an above-average big league performance with the lumber (.343 wOBA, 110 wRC+). Unfortunately, the righty batter showed little improvement over the next three seasons:

2007: .288/.316/.408, .315 wOBA, 91 wRC+
2008: .290/.336/.405, .324 wOBA, 99 wRC+
2009: .284/.308/.425, .312 wOBA, 90 wRC+

That weak hitting, coupled with clunky defense, made Young worth a combined -1.7 Wins Above Replacement. In 2010, the 24-year-old Twin is batting .274/.314/.474, with a wOBA (.338) and wRC+ (109) better than the league average for the first time since he debuted with the Rays. Is he finally making some progress? To an extent, yes.

Young remains an ultra-aggressive batter, swinging at far more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone than the big league average. After hacking at 39.8% of off-the-plate pitches from 2007-2009 (25% average during those seasons), Delmon is going after 38.8% of out-of-zone offerings in 2010 (28% MLB average). His walk rate is up, though we’re speaking in relative terms — Young is drawing ball four 6.7% of the time, compared to 4.2% from ’07 to ’09.

So, his plate approach still leaves much to be desired. But Young has made strides in terms of making contact and hitting for power. His contact rate on in-zone pitches was 85.1% from 2007-2009 (88% MLB average) and his overall contact rate was 75.1% (81% MLB average). He’s connecting 89.6% of the time when pitchers give him something over the plate this year, and 83.1% overall. Young’s whiff rate is down to 12.6% in 2010, after peaking at 23.3% last season.

Once dubbed an “intimidating presence” at the plate by Baseball America, Young rarely went deep or split the gaps in years past. After posting a .159 ISO in his big league stint in ’06, he had a .119 ISO in 2007, and a .115 ISO in 2008. Young improved somewhat in 2009 (.142 ISO), and he has a solid .200 ISO this season. The big difference? He has stopped chopping the ball into the dirt so often:

2007: 46.3 GB%, 32.6 FB%, 7.6 HR/FB%
2008: 55.2 GB%, 27.8 FB%, 7.6 HR/FB%
2009: 49.7 GB%, 34.1 FB%, 11.4 HR/FB%
2010: 45.3 GB%, 38.4 FB%, 11.5 HR/FB%

Fewer grounders and more fly balls — that’s clearly a good trade-off when it comes to hitting for power. It’s pretty hard to get an extra-base hit on a Baltimore Chop. The AL slugging percentage on grounders has ranged from .238 to .262 over the past three seasons. The AL slugging percentage on fly balls has been between .566 and .603. Young’s career slugging percentage on grounders is .274, and his career SLG% on fly balls is .610.

Fly balls do fall for hits on balls put in play less often than ground balls, which partially contributes to Young’s .270 BABIP on the season. But even with a higher fly ball rate, his expected BABIP (xBABIP) is .315. Chances are, Young finishes the season hitting closer to .290 than .270.

Overall, there’s reason to be cautiously optimistic about Delmon Young. He’s still getting himself out too often. However, he is starting to tap into the power that he displayed as a prized prospect. Young has a long way to go to ever be an offensive star, but he’s at least keeping his head above water after a few seasons of sub-replacement-level play.

With all the hubub surrounding two nice prospects getting their first licks in the major leagues, let’s not neglect the waiver wire. We all need a little waiver love, and almost none of us have a certain Nationals pitcher on our wire. Instead, let’s look at a couple players that should almost definitely be on your waiver wire today.

Jason Motte, St. Louis (2%)
Okay, maybe if your league counts holds, Motte won’t be available. Then again, he only has four holds on the season, and he probably won’t be closing any time soon unless Ryan Franklin goes down with a (possibly beard-related?) injury. But it’s worth pointing out that Motte has finally harnessed some of his raw power and is pitching the best ball of his career. Coming up through the system, we all knew this converted catcher had gas (95.9 MPH fastball career), but there were questions about his secondary stuff. Questions like: Does he even have another pitch? Well, he’s still throwing the fastball over 70% of the time, so he does like to bring the heat. And he’s gone into extended periods of focusing on the secondary stuff and then forgetting about it. But he’s finally throwing the curveball regularly (10.2% this year), and though linear weights don’t love the pitch yet (-1.1 runs this year), obviously something is working in the overall package. On June 6th, he gave his first run in 9 and 2/3 innings, and during that ten-game stretch, he had a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s that nice walk rate (2.31), combined with his booming fastball and developing curve, that makes him an interesting ratios and strikeouts reliever on teams in deeper leagues. Especially if you’re over your innings pace already.

Milton Bradley, Seattle (4% owned)
Yeah, I know. Groan. He’s struggling through a .274 wOBA, 67 wRC+ kind of season. He’s striking out at a career-worst rate (31.4%) and walking at a career-low rate (7.8%). His ISO is his worst since he was in Montreal, and we can’t even blame his BABIP (.283) much. He’s seeing a sports psychologist, and he’s a risk to leave the team at any time. In some ways, there couldn’t be a worse candidate for your fantasy team. All of that is true, and there is very little silver lining. One okay factor is that he still has an average-ish line drive rate (18.3%), and another is that at 32 years old and of above-average athleticism, he’s not so old that we would expect a drop off this precipitous. But the final, most important piece of information regarding Bradley is this: He’s playing. Every day. Even in an 18-team, 5-OF league, all 90 starting outfielders in baseball are relevant, and leagues come deeper than this. Put him on your bench if you can because warm, starting, bodies are valuable if your league is deep enough. Then all you can do is hope he recovers some of his old form. (Hey, the psychologist thing really “worked” for John Smoltz.)

Adam Lind must feel left out. Most of his Blue Jays teammates are mashing — Toronto leads the majors in Isolated Power (.225) by a wide margin, and with a .339 wOBA, the Jays trail only division foes New York and Boston among AL teams.

Lind, however, is scuffling. The 26-year-old busted out last season for a .305/.370/.562 line and a .394 wOBA. ZiPS and CHONE figured that Lind’s bat wouldn’t be as potent this season…

Lind’s Preseason projections

ZiPS: .277/.339/.488, .359 wOBA
CHONE: .293/.350/.502, .368 wOBA

..but those lines still projected well above-average hitting from Toronto’s 2004 third-round pick.

Unfortunately, Lind’s hitting just .210/.279/.370, with a .286 wOBA. That’s bad for any player. But it’s abysmal for a guy who spends most of his time at DH, while occasionally lumbering around left field. After putting up 3.5 Wins Above Replacement in 2009 and signing a long-term deal with Toronto this past April, Lind has been worth -0.7 WAR.

Some of Lind’s lackluster offensive showing can be explained by a low batting average on balls in play. His BABIP is .247, well south of his career .305 BABIP. Lind’s expected BABIP (xBABIP), based on his rate of long balls, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls and pop ups, is .316. So, it’s reasonable to say that the lefty batter has had some poor luck to this point. However, he’s still falling short of expectations when it comes to driving the ball and laying off of junk pitches.

Lind’s power output surged last season — he popped 35 home runs and had a .257 Isolated Power. Coming into 2010, ZiPS projected a .211 ISO and CHONE a .209 ISO. So far, he’s got a .160 mark. His home run per fly ball rate, 19.8% last year and 14.9% for his career, sits at 11.3%.

In 2009, Lind hit for power to all fields. This season, he’s hitting a lot of balls weakly to the middle field. Check out his spray splits for ’09 and 2010:

He’s still pulling the ball better than the average lefty batter, and his opposite field performance remains well above average despite a big dip in BABIP. Lind’s BABIP on balls hit up the middle is extremely low (.132), but he’s not showing any pop to center — a .058 ISO, compared to .273 in 2009 and the .140 average for lefty batters.

Lind’s power has been disappointing, but it’s probably too soon to make much of the 50 point gap between his actual and projected ISO. The steps backward that he has taken in controlling the strike zone, however, are more worrisome.

He was pretty jumpy at the plate from 2006-2008, chasing 32.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the MLB average was about 25% during those years). During his banner ’09 season, Lind laid off more out-of-zone pitches — his O-Swing dipped to 24.7%. This year, he’s hacking at 31.1% of pitches tossed out of the zone, compared to the 27.9% MLB average.

Lind’s strikeout rate has spiked as well. He’s whiffing in 27.4% of his PA this season (18.7% in 2009 and 20.6% for his career). He’s swinging and missing at more of those out-of-zone pitches (64.9 outside contact rate in 2010, compared to 70.5% in ’09 and a 67.6% career average), and his in-zone contact rate has declined a point, from 87.9% to 86.9%.

Adam Lind probably hasn’t forgotten how to hit. Even if he keeps his current, hack-tastic approach, he’ll perform much better as his BABIP climbs. But bad luck aside, he’s doing a pretty good job of getting himself out right now — Lind’s expanding his zone, and the result is weaker contact, and less contact overall.

While it isn’t official quite yet, it looks like Mike Stanton is being called up by the Marlins and should join the team shortly. Stanton isn’t playing in Double-A today, and MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro says that he will be with the club on Tuesday.

Stanton, one of baseball’s top prospects, hit 21 homers in 240 plate appearances for Jacksonville. He posted a line of .313/.442/.729, with a wOBA of .449. Stanton had a career high walk rate (18.3%), and kept his strikeout rate around 22%. Stanton is only 20 years old, yet he should be able to step right in for the Marlins and at least hit for power.

For those of you who don’t like the fancy things we call numbers, Stanton is even built like a power hitter. Hitting right handed, Stanton is 6-5, weighing in around 235 pounds. While I’m not a professional scout, and I don’t evaluate hitters nearly as well as pitchers, Stanton just looks like a power hitter in the batters box. Our very own Marc Hulet said ” Stanton obviously has massive power potential as a future MLBer, but it will be his contact rate that dictates just how big of an impact he has.”

Before the season began, no one could figure out where Stanton would fit into Florida’s lineup. Now, with Cameron Maybin struggling, it looks like Cody Ross will move into CF and Stanton will man RF. The club wouldn’t call up Stanton to have him sit on the bench, so look for him to be in the lineup more times than not. He’s probably not worth a spot in standard re-draft leagues, but if he’s available in a keeper league, snatch him up.

Thanks to Michael Jong for the information about what the Marlins lineup will probably look like.