Few players in recent memory have disappointed more than Delmon Young. The first overall pick in the 2003 draft hammered minor league pitching to the tune of .318/.363/.518, displaying top-shelf power while taking on pitchers several years his senior. His plate approach was raw (6.3 BB%). But Young was ranked as a top three prospect by Baseball America each season from 2004 to 2007, and he elicited Albert Belle comparisons for his ability to drive the ball.

Young got a cup of coffee with Tampa Bay back in 2006, with a .316/.336/.476 line in 131 plate appearances. He swung at positively everything (50.3 O-Swing%, 0.8 BB%), and his BABIP was .370. But even so, it’s impressive for a 20-year-old to manage an above-average big league performance with the lumber (.343 wOBA, 110 wRC+). Unfortunately, the righty batter showed little improvement over the next three seasons:

2007: .288/.316/.408, .315 wOBA, 91 wRC+
2008: .290/.336/.405, .324 wOBA, 99 wRC+
2009: .284/.308/.425, .312 wOBA, 90 wRC+

That weak hitting, coupled with clunky defense, made Young worth a combined -1.7 Wins Above Replacement. In 2010, the 24-year-old Twin is batting .274/.314/.474, with a wOBA (.338) and wRC+ (109) better than the league average for the first time since he debuted with the Rays. Is he finally making some progress? To an extent, yes.

Young remains an ultra-aggressive batter, swinging at far more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone than the big league average. After hacking at 39.8% of off-the-plate pitches from 2007-2009 (25% average during those seasons), Delmon is going after 38.8% of out-of-zone offerings in 2010 (28% MLB average). His walk rate is up, though we’re speaking in relative terms — Young is drawing ball four 6.7% of the time, compared to 4.2% from ’07 to ’09.

So, his plate approach still leaves much to be desired. But Young has made strides in terms of making contact and hitting for power. His contact rate on in-zone pitches was 85.1% from 2007-2009 (88% MLB average) and his overall contact rate was 75.1% (81% MLB average). He’s connecting 89.6% of the time when pitchers give him something over the plate this year, and 83.1% overall. Young’s whiff rate is down to 12.6% in 2010, after peaking at 23.3% last season.

Once dubbed an “intimidating presence” at the plate by Baseball America, Young rarely went deep or split the gaps in years past. After posting a .159 ISO in his big league stint in ’06, he had a .119 ISO in 2007, and a .115 ISO in 2008. Young improved somewhat in 2009 (.142 ISO), and he has a solid .200 ISO this season. The big difference? He has stopped chopping the ball into the dirt so often:

2007: 46.3 GB%, 32.6 FB%, 7.6 HR/FB%
2008: 55.2 GB%, 27.8 FB%, 7.6 HR/FB%
2009: 49.7 GB%, 34.1 FB%, 11.4 HR/FB%
2010: 45.3 GB%, 38.4 FB%, 11.5 HR/FB%

Fewer grounders and more fly balls — that’s clearly a good trade-off when it comes to hitting for power. It’s pretty hard to get an extra-base hit on a Baltimore Chop. The AL slugging percentage on grounders has ranged from .238 to .262 over the past three seasons. The AL slugging percentage on fly balls has been between .566 and .603. Young’s career slugging percentage on grounders is .274, and his career SLG% on fly balls is .610.

Fly balls do fall for hits on balls put in play less often than ground balls, which partially contributes to Young’s .270 BABIP on the season. But even with a higher fly ball rate, his expected BABIP (xBABIP) is .315. Chances are, Young finishes the season hitting closer to .290 than .270.

Overall, there’s reason to be cautiously optimistic about Delmon Young. He’s still getting himself out too often. However, he is starting to tap into the power that he displayed as a prized prospect. Young has a long way to go to ever be an offensive star, but he’s at least keeping his head above water after a few seasons of sub-replacement-level play.

With all the hubub surrounding two nice prospects getting their first licks in the major leagues, let’s not neglect the waiver wire. We all need a little waiver love, and almost none of us have a certain Nationals pitcher on our wire. Instead, let’s look at a couple players that should almost definitely be on your waiver wire today.

Jason Motte, St. Louis (2%)
Okay, maybe if your league counts holds, Motte won’t be available. Then again, he only has four holds on the season, and he probably won’t be closing any time soon unless Ryan Franklin goes down with a (possibly beard-related?) injury. But it’s worth pointing out that Motte has finally harnessed some of his raw power and is pitching the best ball of his career. Coming up through the system, we all knew this converted catcher had gas (95.9 MPH fastball career), but there were questions about his secondary stuff. Questions like: Does he even have another pitch? Well, he’s still throwing the fastball over 70% of the time, so he does like to bring the heat. And he’s gone into extended periods of focusing on the secondary stuff and then forgetting about it. But he’s finally throwing the curveball regularly (10.2% this year), and though linear weights don’t love the pitch yet (-1.1 runs this year), obviously something is working in the overall package. On June 6th, he gave his first run in 9 and 2/3 innings, and during that ten-game stretch, he had a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s that nice walk rate (2.31), combined with his booming fastball and developing curve, that makes him an interesting ratios and strikeouts reliever on teams in deeper leagues. Especially if you’re over your innings pace already.

Milton Bradley, Seattle (4% owned)
Yeah, I know. Groan. He’s struggling through a .274 wOBA, 67 wRC+ kind of season. He’s striking out at a career-worst rate (31.4%) and walking at a career-low rate (7.8%). His ISO is his worst since he was in Montreal, and we can’t even blame his BABIP (.283) much. He’s seeing a sports psychologist, and he’s a risk to leave the team at any time. In some ways, there couldn’t be a worse candidate for your fantasy team. All of that is true, and there is very little silver lining. One okay factor is that he still has an average-ish line drive rate (18.3%), and another is that at 32 years old and of above-average athleticism, he’s not so old that we would expect a drop off this precipitous. But the final, most important piece of information regarding Bradley is this: He’s playing. Every day. Even in an 18-team, 5-OF league, all 90 starting outfielders in baseball are relevant, and leagues come deeper than this. Put him on your bench if you can because warm, starting, bodies are valuable if your league is deep enough. Then all you can do is hope he recovers some of his old form. (Hey, the psychologist thing really “worked” for John Smoltz.)

Adam Lind must feel left out. Most of his Blue Jays teammates are mashing — Toronto leads the majors in Isolated Power (.225) by a wide margin, and with a .339 wOBA, the Jays trail only division foes New York and Boston among AL teams.

Lind, however, is scuffling. The 26-year-old busted out last season for a .305/.370/.562 line and a .394 wOBA. ZiPS and CHONE figured that Lind’s bat wouldn’t be as potent this season…

Lind’s Preseason projections

ZiPS: .277/.339/.488, .359 wOBA
CHONE: .293/.350/.502, .368 wOBA

..but those lines still projected well above-average hitting from Toronto’s 2004 third-round pick.

Unfortunately, Lind’s hitting just .210/.279/.370, with a .286 wOBA. That’s bad for any player. But it’s abysmal for a guy who spends most of his time at DH, while occasionally lumbering around left field. After putting up 3.5 Wins Above Replacement in 2009 and signing a long-term deal with Toronto this past April, Lind has been worth -0.7 WAR.

Some of Lind’s lackluster offensive showing can be explained by a low batting average on balls in play. His BABIP is .247, well south of his career .305 BABIP. Lind’s expected BABIP (xBABIP), based on his rate of long balls, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls and pop ups, is .316. So, it’s reasonable to say that the lefty batter has had some poor luck to this point. However, he’s still falling short of expectations when it comes to driving the ball and laying off of junk pitches.

Lind’s power output surged last season — he popped 35 home runs and had a .257 Isolated Power. Coming into 2010, ZiPS projected a .211 ISO and CHONE a .209 ISO. So far, he’s got a .160 mark. His home run per fly ball rate, 19.8% last year and 14.9% for his career, sits at 11.3%.

In 2009, Lind hit for power to all fields. This season, he’s hitting a lot of balls weakly to the middle field. Check out his spray splits for ’09 and 2010:

He’s still pulling the ball better than the average lefty batter, and his opposite field performance remains well above average despite a big dip in BABIP. Lind’s BABIP on balls hit up the middle is extremely low (.132), but he’s not showing any pop to center — a .058 ISO, compared to .273 in 2009 and the .140 average for lefty batters.

Lind’s power has been disappointing, but it’s probably too soon to make much of the 50 point gap between his actual and projected ISO. The steps backward that he has taken in controlling the strike zone, however, are more worrisome.

He was pretty jumpy at the plate from 2006-2008, chasing 32.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the MLB average was about 25% during those years). During his banner ’09 season, Lind laid off more out-of-zone pitches — his O-Swing dipped to 24.7%. This year, he’s hacking at 31.1% of pitches tossed out of the zone, compared to the 27.9% MLB average.

Lind’s strikeout rate has spiked as well. He’s whiffing in 27.4% of his PA this season (18.7% in 2009 and 20.6% for his career). He’s swinging and missing at more of those out-of-zone pitches (64.9 outside contact rate in 2010, compared to 70.5% in ’09 and a 67.6% career average), and his in-zone contact rate has declined a point, from 87.9% to 86.9%.

Adam Lind probably hasn’t forgotten how to hit. Even if he keeps his current, hack-tastic approach, he’ll perform much better as his BABIP climbs. But bad luck aside, he’s doing a pretty good job of getting himself out right now — Lind’s expanding his zone, and the result is weaker contact, and less contact overall.

While it isn’t official quite yet, it looks like Mike Stanton is being called up by the Marlins and should join the team shortly. Stanton isn’t playing in Double-A today, and MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro says that he will be with the club on Tuesday.

Stanton, one of baseball’s top prospects, hit 21 homers in 240 plate appearances for Jacksonville. He posted a line of .313/.442/.729, with a wOBA of .449. Stanton had a career high walk rate (18.3%), and kept his strikeout rate around 22%. Stanton is only 20 years old, yet he should be able to step right in for the Marlins and at least hit for power.

For those of you who don’t like the fancy things we call numbers, Stanton is even built like a power hitter. Hitting right handed, Stanton is 6-5, weighing in around 235 pounds. While I’m not a professional scout, and I don’t evaluate hitters nearly as well as pitchers, Stanton just looks like a power hitter in the batters box. Our very own Marc Hulet said ” Stanton obviously has massive power potential as a future MLBer, but it will be his contact rate that dictates just how big of an impact he has.”

Before the season began, no one could figure out where Stanton would fit into Florida’s lineup. Now, with Cameron Maybin struggling, it looks like Cody Ross will move into CF and Stanton will man RF. The club wouldn’t call up Stanton to have him sit on the bench, so look for him to be in the lineup more times than not. He’s probably not worth a spot in standard re-draft leagues, but if he’s available in a keeper league, snatch him up.

Thanks to Michael Jong for the information about what the Marlins lineup will probably look like.

Carlos Quentin crushed the ball during his first season with the White Sox, batting .288/.394/.571 with a .414 wOBA in 2008. Though The Cell is a power-friendly venue (increasing runs by nine percent and homers by 25 percent from 2007-2009, per the Bill James Handbook), Quentin’s wRC+ was still stellar at 154.

Since then, Quentin has stumbled. Over the 2009-2010 seasons, the former Diamondbacks prospect has a .331 wOBA. His park-and-league-adjusted wOBA is one percent worse than the league average (99 wRC+). Considering his stationary defense, he has been a serious drag on Chicago’s playoff chances — he was worth -0.4 Wins Above Replacement in 2009, and has already racked up a full win below what one would expect from a freely available Triple-A talent in 2010.

Injuries have been a serious problem throughout his career. Prior to reaching the South Side in exchange for DH/1B/OF/3B/? Chris Carter in December of 2007, the Stanford product’s pro debut was delayed by Tommy John surgery in 2003, and he suffered a left shoulder injury that required surgery in ’07. Quentin fractured his right wrist in early September of 2008 after slamming his bat in frustration, and he missed a sizeable chunk of the 2009 season with Plantar Fasciitis in his left foot. A tight hamstring bothered him in late April and early May of this year.

A banged-up Quentin isn’t hitting with the same authority. His ISO was .283 in ’08, .219 last season and .190 in 2010. Not surprisingly, his performance when pulling the ball has taken a big hit, as have his numbers when hitting the ball up the middle:

An otherworldly pull and mid-field hitter in 2008, Quentin has been decidedly below-average since. As is the case with most batters, nothing much happens when Quentin hits to the opposite field. And he’s hitting to the right side more than ever in 2010: 28.3 percent, compared to 17.8% in 2009 and 22.6% in 2008.

It’s true that Quentin had a .221 BABIP in ’09 and currently has a .199 BABIP in 2010, fourth-worst among qualified batters. But his career BABIP in the majors is .248, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection has a .257 BABIP. The odds of Quentin continuing to post a sub-.200 BABIP are very slim, but there are several reasons why he gets fewer hits on balls put in play than most:

He hits few line drives

Line drives hit in the American League this season have a .726 BABIP — they fall for hits far more than any other batted ball type. While line drive rate isn’t the most stable metric from year-to-year, Quentin has a career 15.8 LD%. His LD% over the past three seasons (15.7) is one of the twenty lowest marks among MLB hitters with at least 500 plate appearances.

He pops the ball up often

Quentin has a 15.1 infield/fly ball percentage in 2010, and his career rate is 12.5%. Pop ups are the closest thing to a gimme out on a ball in play, and he hits far more than most batters. The average IF/FB% is between seven and eight percent.

He’s slow

Along with line drive rate, batter’s eye and pitches seen per PA, Speed Score is one of the variables that has a positive effect on BABIP. With an aching foot, the 6-1, 230 pound Quentin has become increasingly sluggish — his Speed Score was 4.0 in ’08, 3.1 in ’09 and is 2.1 this season (the MLB average is five).

While Quentin’s monstrous 2008 season was probably at the upper bounds of what anyone could have expected from him, his work over the 2009-2010 seasons has undeniably been disappointing. Many owners have cut ties — the 27-year-old’s Yahoo ownership rate is down to 47 percent. Quentin can’t seem to stay healthy, and his power numbers have declined. He’s worth a flyer if available, but that ’08 production doesn’t appear to be coming back any time soon.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool.

San Francisco Giants purchased the contract of OF Pat Burrell from Triple-A Fresno; optioned OF John Bowker to Fresno.

“The Bat” ‘s lumber has flat lined since he inked a two-year, $16 million deal with Tampa Bay prior to the 2009 season. Burrell posted a combined .381 wOBA from 2006-2008, but he plummeted to a .304 wOBA as the Rays’ DH last season, battling a neck injury that forced him to the DL for a month.

Before drawing his release from Tampa in late May, the 33-year-old posted a .284 wOBA. San Francisco scooped him up on a minor league deal, and after a tune-up at Fresno, Burrell’s back in the big leagues. However, his utility to the Giants (not to mention his path to playing time) is unclear.

After routinely putting up Isolated Power marks in the .200-.250 range as a Phillie, Burrell had a .146 ISO in ’09 and has a .136 ISO in 2010. He has scuffled against fastballs and sliders over the past two years — he was -0.62 runs/100 against heaters in ’09, and is at -2.03 runs/100 when pitchers challenge him in 2010. Against sliders, he was -1.1 runs/100 last season and -3.37/100 this year. Burrell’s line drive rate, 20.7% for his career, was 18.1% last season and 16.7% in 2010. Those numbers portray a hitter having difficulty catching up to high-speed stuff in the majors, making less and less hard contact.

Coming into the season, CHONE projected Burrell for a .329 wOBA. ZiPS’ rest-of-season projection forecasts a .339 wOBA. Considering Burrell’s plodding D, it’s hard to say what he offers San Francisco that, say, Nate Schierholtz (.339 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, and a quality fielder) or Bowker (.332 ROS ZiPS) don’t. Granted, Bowker’s mashing and newfound patience at Fresno in ’09 (.342/.451/.596, 16.4 BB%) didn’t translate to the majors this season, but is he really a worse bet than Burrell going forward?

With Buster Posey now in the fold, San Fran has added another defensively-challenged player to the outfield mix in Aubrey Huff. Andres Torres is drawing every day play, and Aaron Rowand, despite replacement-level performance to this point, will likely keep his job. That leaves Burrell as a glorified fifth outfielder, drawing the occasional start against a lefty.

The first pick in the ’98 draft has enjoyed plenty of outstanding years at the plate. But when the skill for which you’re nicknamed vanishes, and your D draws groans, it’s a pretty quick path to retirement.

That’s the sound of the final nail in the coffin for the Cleveland Indian’s 2010 season. Already 11 games out of first and languishing at .365, the Indians lost star centerfielder Grady Sizemore for the season today. His knee surgery turned into microfracture surgery, and his early prognosis is for a six-to-nine month recovery period. It’s a tough ‘break’ for a franchise that can’t seem to buy good luck these days.

Dark humor aside, microfracture surgeries are no laughing matter. Ask Tracy McGrady and Chris Webber how their recovery went and you’ll get some nervous laughter and an evasive answer. The silver lining in this story is that Sizemore is still young (27) and he doesn’t have to jump thirty inches up and down on those knees on every other play in his sport. In fact, the combination of those two facts allows for at least some optimism in Cleveland. At least the problem was discovered, and sorted to the best of the surgeon’s abilities. Let’s leave it to the doctors report on his recovery.

Hopefully the injury can be blamed for his poor play this year and last, though his declining ISO is somewhat worrisome. Was his knee hurting in 2009? Did he just peak early in 2008? Will he ever regain that 30/30 form? In real baseball, the Indians may take the 2009 vintage and be happy with it. 112 wRC+ center fielders with plus defense don’t grow on trees. And truly, even fantasy owners should be happy if he comes back and plays to 2009’s level, but they won’t pay early-round prices for that production until he proves the power and speed are back. Still, he makes for an intriguing late-round pick in 2011 because of his immense upside, and certainly keeper league owners should not sell low.

So now what? The Indians will slog through the season and see what else the farm system has to offer at the center field position. Trevor Crowe will get continue to get first dibs on the interim position, and before long Micheal Brantley will get the call. In some ways, this may help the organizational health of the Indians by giving two players that have finished their minor league apprenticeships the chance to play every day in the major leagues. Perhaps they prove they can play every day and allow Cleveland to trade them for value elsewhere. Perhaps one of them proves that they can be a valuable fourth outfielder. Either way, they get a shot.

Crowe’s .276/.362/.391 minor league line doesn’t offer a ton of hope for an above-average regular, but his .813 OPS versus lefties could make him a good fourth outfielder or platoon option. His defense in center was around scratch in the minors according to Total Zone, and a scratch-defensive centerfielder that can hit lefties is not dog meat. At the major league level, he just needs to show he can walk like he did in the minors – his 5.5% walk rate to date is not cutting it.

Brantley is playing decently in the minor leagues currently (.306/.386/.373), but, like Crowe, doesn’t have Sizemore’s above-average (or better) power. For his career, he’s played better against righties (.301/.390/.372), so we may have the beginnings of a center field platoon once he’s called up. According to Total Zone, though, his defense has ranged from exceptional at centerfield (+16 in 2009) to abysmal (-21 in 2009). The book is still open on his ability to play the position at all, and it’s important because he doesn’t own any power to speak of.

Fantasy owners are left crying in their adult sodas at their neighborhood establishment. A 30/30 player will not be on the wire at this point, and they may have no solace for teams built on Sizemore’s speedy legs and powerful bat. If they are looking for help from the Cleveland team, Brantley may be the one to pick up, if only because he plays better against right handers and there are more of them.

It’s now summer by the American social clock (if not by the solstice calendar), and so you should be furiously checking your wire for injury replacements. It’s even time to start considering if a struggling player is ready to be dropped. We’re here to help.

Brett Myers, Astros (10% owned)
Myers is a flawed pitcher. He may never again reach the strikeout-per-inning numbers of his early career, and he’s lost some velocity off of those days as well. The good news is that the fastball was never his best pitch – in fact, it’s never even been a good pitch (-89.6 runs career, and never once positive by linear weights). He’s still got his nice curveball and slider, and he’s actually snapping that slider at a career pace (32% this year, 9.6% career). This will count as good news because not only is the pitch his best this year (+6.6 runs), but it’s also been his best non-curveball pitch in his career. If this ‘new’ Myers can stay healthy, he seems likely to continue to pitch to the talent level indicated by his 3.89 FIP. Flawed, but helpful in deep leagues. When his .324 BABIP comes down a little bit, his poor WHIP might even improve.

Cliff Pennington, Athletics (11% owned)
Here’s another flawed player for your pleasure. In fact, it’s possible he’s over-owned for a shortstop with an underwhelming .209/.291/.322 line. Of course, his BABIP is .245 and should rise, especially since he’s relatively fleet of foot (5.6 career speed score, six stolen bases this year). In other good news, his contact rates are all up across the board, and his zone contact rate (93.4%) is actually okay. His good line drive rate (21.4%) suggests that he may even be able to better his ZiPs RoS (.250/.324/.348) and break 20 steals overall. If someone in your AL-only league dropped him, he can give you a little something from here on out. Just a little.

Jerry Hairston Jr, Padres (5% owned)
Boy, hit one grand slam and suddenly you’re on waiver lists, eh? Of all the numbers that we may cite about Hairston, however, there is one that is the most important once you get into deep enough leagues: seven. As in, Hairston has started seven straight games for the Padres. This, despite Everth Cabrera’s return from the disabled list. Hairston’s defense is scratch at best (-7.9 UZR/150 in 109 career games at the position), but right now his offense is perculating (10 for his last 26) and the team is winning. And anyway, it’s not like Cabrera was a whiz with the glove anyway (-11 UZR/150 in 127 games at the position). The Padres might best be served being honest about the talent level on their team, and going with the guy that could provide more value for longer in Cabrera, but that’s an argument for another space.

All ownership numbers courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy Sports

Time to update the outfielders! Commenters from last week might be happy to see that a certain someone wearing White Sox has dropped into OF2 territory. The offending OF1 rankings can be seen here.

Worst of the Best?
1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.377 wOBA, .409 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.427 wOBA, .371 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
3. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.356 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.424 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.348 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Alex Rios and Carlos Gonzalez join the OF1s next time around, although I just remain skeptical of Rios and think Go CarGo could benefit from a few less swings. The first tier here consists mostly of uninspiring veterans that just don’t have the upside to really be solid OF1s, and then the king of Upside himself, Jason Heyward. Many will question why he isn’t on the OF1 list, but he’s in barely-charted water for a 20 year old, as David Cameron showed this week. If the strikeout rate continues to fall – showing his ability to adjust – he’ll be on the first list soon enough.

If You Squint Just Right They Could Still be an OF1, I Promise
6. Adam Dunn, Washington (.392 wOBA, .394 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Adam Lind, Toronto (.300 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.305 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Carlos Lee, Houston (.243 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.375 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.301 wOBA, .334 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

The first half of this tier includes a lot of veterans that were borderline OF1s going into the season. Well, perhaps Dunn has always had the scarlet letter of his batting average to hold him down, and maybe we should have seen Quentin’s low-batting average ways as his true talent level. His line drive rate does not mean we should expect a huge BABIP-fueled bounceback, as talented as he has seemed at times. Lee is heating up, and Rasmus is cooling down, but Lee may end up with the better batting average given their respective long-term histories.

Upside to be Solid OF2s
12. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia (.343 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS)
13. Denard Span, Minnesota (.357 wOBA, .344 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Austin Jackson, Detroit (.378 wOBA, .308 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.380 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Vernon Wells, Toronto (.398 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Span’s not a bad player and is probably a solid OF2 right now, but a .300 hitter with no power and 30 steals is pretty vanilla. It doesn’t look like it will get any better. A-Jax has cut his strikeout rate from 32.3% in April to 24.4% this month and has settled in with a .302/.348/.395 May after his squeaky clean April. That’s an improvement, but it doesn’t mean he’s not a risk to put up a mediocre batting average going forward. Byrd’s still not walking at all (3.2%) but his ISO survived the move. Adam Jones should take notice, cut his strikeout rate, and up his power to join the party. Wells would be more attractive if it wasn’t likely that we’ve already seen about half of his 2010 home run output already.

Upside to Join the Top
17. Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners (.374 wOBA, .333 ZiPs wOBA)
18. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati (.361 wOBA, .343 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.290 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Now we’re about 36 outfielders in, so we’ve actually covered to OF3 in standard mixed leagues. And to be fair, you’d rather have these guys shuttling in and out of your final outfielder spot because they are streaky young players that are adjusting to the league. Gutierrez could be considered a solid OF2, but it’s not clear that he’s got the power (.148 career ISO, .150 is usually average) or speed (5.3 career speed score, 5 is average) to be relevant in mixed leagues as a second outfielder.

Pittsburgh Pirates placed 1B Steve Pearce (ankle) on the DL; recalled UTIL Neil Walker from Triple-A Indianapolis.

The ankle injury is a tough break for Pearce, as the 27-year-old was beginning to get some big league playing time with Jeff Clement (.235 wOBA) flailing at the plate. Still, Pearce is basically a first base-only player who likely doesn’t have the bat to hold the position. The Pirates experimented with him in the outfield, but the 5-11, 200 pounder doesn’t cover much ground. The former South Carolina Gamecock owns a career .281/.354/.482 triple-slash at the Triple-A level, and his ZiPS projection (.269/.336/.455, .345 wOBA) is a little light for first base. He’s the new Chris Shelton.

Walker, meanwhile, is trying to revive his prospect status after all but falling off the map. The 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft began his career as a catcher, but was shifted to third base prior to the 2007 season. The 6-3, 215 pound switch-hitter turned in modestly productive offensive numbers in A-Ball, given that he was behind the dish at that point:

Low-A South Atlantic League (2005): .301/.332/.452, 3.9 BB%, 15.7 K%, .151 ISO
High-A Carolina League (2005-2006): .281/.331/.402, 5.6 BB%, 17.3 K%, .121 ISO

Baseball America ranked Walker as the #81 prospect in the game prior to 2005, #43 before 2006 and #74 leading up to the 2007 season. Before ’07, BA said that Walker’s power was muted in 2006 by a surgically repaired left wrist, but claimed he had “the potential to hit 30 home runs a season.” They did caution that he lack of patience could become an issue in the upper levels of the minors, and that Walker’s D behind the dish was a work in progress. “The Pirates might get more long-term production out of him,” BA said, “by shifting him to another position, and he has the athleticism to handle third base or the outfield.”

In ’07, the Bucs did move Walker to the hot corner, and he batted .277/.349/.434 in a season spent mostly at Double-A Altoona. His power improved somewhat (.157 ISO), and happily, he stopped hacking so much. Walker walked in 9.8 percent of his plate appearances, whiffing 17.4 percent. Baseball America again named him a top 100 prospect, placing him at #61 before the 2008 season.

The next two years of Walker’s career wouldn’t be nearly as sunny. At Triple-A Indianapolis, he batted .242/.280/.414 in 2008 and .264/.311/.480 in 2009. Walker popped some extra-base hits, with a .172 ISO in ’08 and a .216 ISO in ’09, but his plate approach was lousy. He drew ball four just 5.3% and struck out 20.2% in ’08. In ’09, he walked 6.7% and K’d 15.4%. Walker also missed time last year with a sprained knee and a broken pinky. The Pittsburgh native made his big league debut last September, but it was with considerably lower expectations than when the Pirates called his name back in 2004.

Prior to 2010, BA ranked the perennial top-100 prospect as just the 26th-best farm talent in Pittsburgh’s system. His scouting report was blunt: “he undermines his offensive potential by lacking plate discipline…Walker has expressed a willingness to become a super-utility player.” That, said BA, “may be his ticket to having a big league career of any length.”

With Indy this season, Walker has roamed around the diamond. He has logged time at first, second and third base, while also manning left field. He put up a .321/.392/.560 line in 189 PA. A .360+ BABIP certainly helped, but Walker posted a .239 ISO, walked 10.1 percent of the time and whiffed 18.5 percent.

ZiPS projects Walker to bat .259/.304/.439, with a .325 wOBA. His future in Pittsburgh remains hazy, though — Pedro Alvarez is going to man one of the infield corners in short order. And While Andy LaRoche will never be a star-caliber talent, he did post a 2.6 WAR season in 2009. If Alvarez takes over at third, LaRoche could be shifted to second base. Should Pedro play first, Walker could enter the picture at the keystone spot. The outfield corners are a possibility as well.

For now, Walker will get a little PT at third while LaRoche rests his achy back. Walker, 24, is no longer a top prospect. However, his position versatility and power make him a good bet to at least have a long career as a super-utility type.