Archive for Outfielders

Luke Scott, Orioles (Owned in 19% of Yahoo leagues)

The Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy options, Scott has a couple of factors working against his gaining more notoriety — namely, he didn’t start getting meaningful big league playing time until he was in his late-twenties and he’s currently playing for the AL East’s resident doormat. But Scott could well provide a contending team with an upgrade at the trade deadline, and could do the same for fantasy owners willing to look past a lack of name recognition.

Scott’s got a robust .291/.357/.567 line in 277 plate appearances, good for a .396 wOBA. Despite being sidelined in early July with a strained left hamstring, the lefty slugger’s lumber has been +16 runs above average. While Scott might not keep flirting with a .400 wOBA, it’s not like his potent offensive showing is a fluke — he’s a career .268/.351/.504 hitter and holds a .364 wOBA. If you’re in need of some lightning in your lineup, you could do far worse than what Scott figures to provide for the rest of the season — .263/.342/.497 from ZiPS and .258/.332/.471 from CHONE. Give this guy a little respect.

Jason Hammel, Rockies (23%)

Liberated from the Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching factory in April of 2009, Hammel turned in a quality season as a full-time starter — in 176.2 innings pitched, he struck out 6.78 batters per nine innings, walked 2.14 per nine and compiled a 3.81 xFIP. While a right groin strain caused him to miss a few weeks earlier this year, Hammel is performing well again in 2010. The 27-year-old with sharp breaking stuff has K’d 7.5 per nine frames, issued 2.42 BB/9 and has a 3.72 xFIP in 104.1 IP.

Granted, those extra strikeouts might not stick. Hammel is actually getting fewer swinging strikes this season — 6.9%, compared to 9.5% in 2009 (8-9% MLB average). And, his 84.1% contact rate is higher than his 79.9% mark last year and the 81% MLB average. This increase in punch outs is due to more called strikes. Hammel’s getting a called strike 20% of the time in 2010, compared to 17.1% in ’09 (17% MLB average). Called strikes have a lower correlation with K’s than swinging strikes, so it’s unlikely that Hammel continues to fan so many. But even so, he’s a solid option. ZiPS projects 6.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 3.95 FIP for the rest of the season, and CHONE has a forecast with 6.62 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 4.22 neutralized ERA.

Kansas City Royals placed OF David DeJesus (thumb) on the 15-day DL; Recalled OF Alex Gordon from Triple-A Omaha.

DeJesus sprained his right thumb trying to make a catch in center field on what ended up being an inside-the-park homer for Derek Jeter. DeJesus, subject to countless trade rumors due to his solid bat, rangy defense and bargain contract (he has a $6 million club option for 2011), is supposed to meet with a hand specialist in Cleveland sometime today. The 30-year-old hits the shelf with a .318/.384/.443 line in 394 plate appearances, with a career-best .364 wOBA. He’s walking 8.6% of the time and has a .125 ISO, marks that are right in line with his career averages (8.3% and .137, respectively). However, a .355 BABIP that’s 33 points higher than his career figure has boosted his triple-slash.

For the time being, former organizational golden child Alex Gordon will replace DeJesus. The second overall pick in the 2005 draft shifted from third base to the corner outfield this past spring, in deference to top prospect Mike Moustakas. Gordon, a Golden Spikes Award winner ranked by Baseball America as the second-best minor league talent in the game prior to 2007, has yet to rake in the majors and has been beset by injuries. But the 26-year-old Cornhusker has punished the Pacific Coast League since an early-May demotion.

The 6-2, 220 pound lefty batter throttled Double-A pitching in 2006 — Gordon batted .325/.427/.588 in 576 Texas League PA. Walks (12.5 BB%), power (.263 ISO), speed (22 SB in 25 attempts) — you name a skill, and Gordon displayed it. He even rated as a plus defender at third, according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone system (+13 runs). That tour de force performance translated to a .253/.331/.440 major league line, per Minor League Splits.

Gordon made the Royals out of spring training the following year and went on to hit .247/.314/.411 in 601 PA (.317 wOBA). He showed decent power (.164 ISO) and stole 14 bases in 18 tries but struggled with his strike zone control at times (6.8 BB%, 25.2 K%). Gordon appeared to scuffle against secondary stuff, with a positive run value versus fastballs (+0.15 runs per 100 pitches) but red marks against changeups (-0.16), sliders (-1.42) and curveballs (-1.92). All things considered, it wasn’t a bad debut for a 23-year-old with minimal minor league experience.

In 2008, Gordon’s bat improved — he posted a .260/.351/.432 line in 571 PA, with a .344 wOBA. His rate of free passes taken jumped to 11.6%, as his outside swing percentage fell from 25.8% in ’07 to 24.1% (the MLB average was around 25% during both seasons). He hit for a similar amount of power (.172 ISO) and cut his K rate a bit to 24.3%. While continuing to hit fastballs well (+0.81 runs/100), Gordon also had positive runs values against changeups (+1.13) and curves (+1.22). His run value against sliders remained below-average (-0.92).

And then, just when it looked as though Gordon was about to make good on his prospect pedigree, the injuries began. He served a DL stint for a right quad strain in August of ’08, but a right hip ailment in 2009 would prove to be devastating. Gordon got off to a wretched start in 2009 before undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip. He rehabbed and returned to Kansas City in July, but was back in the minors by late August (denying him the service time to achieve Super Two status) before being recalled in September. Overall, Gordon hit .327/.451/.558 in 133 minor league PA spread over Rookie Ball, Double-A and Triple-A but just .232/.324/.378 (.321 wOBA) in 189 big league PA.

This past spring, Gordon fractured his right thumb while sliding headfirst into second base during a spring training game. He was activated from the DL in mid-April, but was banished to Omaha after putting up a .298 wOBA in 38 PA. Since then, he has mashed to the tune of .315/.442/.577 in 321 PCL PA. Gordon has walked 16.2%, whiffed 27.7% and has a .262 ISO. According to Minor League Splits, his major league equivalent line is .258/.361/.444.

While he hasn’t been a disaster at the hot corner in the majors (career -2 UZR/150 in 2,805 innings), Gordon’s future in Kansas City, if he has one, figures to come in the outfield. That’s a hit in positional value, both for fantasy owners and for the Royals. For now, though, Gordon will retain eligibility at third. His rest-of-season CHONE projection calls for a .263/.358/.430, and his ZiPS projection is .242/.329/.406.

The chances of Gordon becoming a star-caliber player are very slim at this point, but he’s worth an add in AL-only leagues and could be someone to watch in mixed leagues if he gets penciled into the lineup like he should. There’s nothing left for Gordon to prove in the minors. Hopefully, he gets an extended shot (either in K.C. or elsewhere) to jump-start his career.

UPDATE: According to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (via Twitter), DeJesus is out for the year with a fully torn thumb ligament. He’s scheduled for surgery Monday. With that unfortunate news, it looks like Gordon will get a chance to sink or swim in the majors.

There’s a Phillie outfielder that should be getting more pub these days, and his name is not Jayson Werth. In fantasy circles at least, it’s Shane Victorino that’s been performing at a laudable pace most of the year. Maybe it’s my fandom, or the BABIP-lowered .259 batting average, but I’ve been guilty of ignoring Victorino myself. Should I have given him more pub?

I’m not sure. Going into the season, he struck me as a little overrated – a Denard Span dressed up in more expensive and slightly more powerful (and, judging by his nickname, exciting) clothing. A good batting average and 30 stolen bases is worthwhile, but 10ish home runs means you shouldn’t pay too much for it, after all.

Well, then Victorino found his boomstick. His .196 ISO, 40.1% flyball percentage, and 11.4% HR/FB are all full-season career highs and have contributed to his career high in home runs, achieved with much of the season left. Of course, ISO is one of the last statistics to stabilize, so we should remember that. But, other than expected regression to his career means, is there something here that might stick?

One thing that leaps out at the page is a lack of linear progression towards these highs. He hasn’t had a growing flyball percentage, nor has his HR/FB total been inching forward. This isn’t something backed by extensive research, but nice linear buildup towards a career high just makes a person feel better about the repeatability of that ability. Say Victorino was getting older, slower, and more powerful – like Johnny Damon in his later New York years – then we might expect a couple of years with nice home run totals. Then again, Damon’s power didn’t come in a nice linear way either – his is more a picture of peaks and valleys.

Check it out:

Does Victorino’s look familiar?

We’ll have to plead not enough information, given how many more data points Damon has on Victorino. The best thing to note is that his speed scores are not going down, and with some regression in BABIP in the second half, Victorino might even be worth more than he has been to date – if he can hold on to his power gains.

Otherwise, he might just still be Denard Span – with a nice, powerful first half behind him. It’s all about production versus projection in the fantasy game, in the end.

Tyler Colvin entered spring training as a mid-range prospect looking to land a spot on the Chicago Cubs’ bench. But the 24-year-old has done far more than simply make the roster. Roaming all three outfield spots while spotting for Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome, Colvin’s bat has been +4.9 runs above average, and he has jacked 13 HR in 230 plate appearances. Is the Clemson product someone to target in keeper leagues, or his he playing over his head?

The Cubs selected Colvin with the 13th overall pick in the 2006 draft. At the time, the pick was considered a reach by Baseball America. Here’s what BA said about him at the time:

Colvin doesn’t have a tool that stands out, but as he has gained strength he has been able to repeat his smooth lefthanded swing more readily, and he’s added power to be average in that department. He’s an above-average runner and an efficient basestealer who plays a solid left field….some scouts estimated he would go in the first three rounds.

The 6-foot-3 lefty batter made his professional debut in the Short-Season Northwest League in ’06, batting .268/.313/.483 in 288 PA. In a sign of things to come, Colvin showed good power (.215 Isolated Power) and rough strike zone control (5.9 BB%, 20.8 K%). BA noted that he was young for a college draftee (turning 21 at the end of the season) and had projection in his lean 190 pound frame. They did caution that he needed to “tighten his strike zone and lay off high fastballs.”

In 2007, Colvin divided his time between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Southern League. In the FSL, he hit .306/.336/.514 in 262 PA. Colvin again hit the ball hard (.208 ISO) and didn’t whiff all that often (19.2 K%), but his plate discipline was a concern — he walked just 3.8% of the time. Upon the promotion to Double-A, the hacking heightened. Colvin drew ball four 1.9% and punched out 21.9%, putting up a .291/.313/.462 triple slash and a .170 ISO. The power was a plus, but the Francouer-sized strike zone scared scouts. “Advanced pitchers,” Baseball America predicted, “will exploit his anxiousness.”

Chicago sent Colvin back to the Smokies in 2008, and he made some modest gains in laying off junk pitches. In 602 PA, he slashed .256/.312/.424, walking 7.3%, striking out 18.7% and posting a .169 ISO. The main reason for the drop in his numbers was his BABIP — after having 34-35 percent of his balls in play fall for hits in ’07, Colvin had a .286 BABIP in ’08. BA commented that he sometimes cut himself off in his swing and “employ[ed] a dead-pull approach.” He seemed to have a timing issue at the dish, as his infield fly rate spiked — according to Minor League Splits, Colvin popped the ball up 14% in 2006 and 12.3% in 2007, but that figure rose to 20.3% during his second tour of the Southern League. A sore left elbow probably didn’t help matters any, either. Colvin underwent Tommy John surgery during the off-season.

Sent back to the FSL to begin the 2009 season, Colvin hit just .250/.326/.357 in 129 PA while testing out his surgically-repaired elbow. He walked 10.1%, with a 24.1 K% and a .107 ISO. Bumped up to Double-A in late May, he resumed his high-power, low patience act — he put up a .300/.334/.524 line with a .225 ISO, while working a walk just 4.8% and striking out 18.6%. Colvin’s pop up rate fell back to 13.7% between to the levels, with BA saying he “did a better job of covering the plate, as it no longer hurt when he torqued his elbow extending his arms to hit pitches on the outer half.” Colvin even got a brief glimpse of the majors in September when the Cubs suspended Milton Bradley.

Colvin’s work in the big leagues this year offers both promise and concern. On the positive side, he’s creaming pitchers — Colvin’s got a .252 ISO, and 24.1% of the fly balls that he has hit have left the yard. All of that thunder has helped him post a .262/.314/.514 line and a .357 wOBA.

However, he’s still greatly expanding his zone. Colvin has chased 39.2% of pitches thrown off the plate, one of the 20 highest rates among batters with 230+ PA and well above the 28.8% MLB average this season. He’s also making contact 70.3% of the time, compared to the 81% MLB average. The hacking and whiffing has led to a 6.5% walk rate and a 29.5% K rate.

Colvin has been an asset at the plate while hitting for gargantuan power, and he has shown the ability to hit for solid pop in the minors. But is it really reasonable to expect a guy with a career .188 ISO on the farm to continue posting a major league ISO on par with elite major league sluggers? While Colvin should continue to drive the ball often, we should expect a good deal of regression — ZiPS projects a .168 ISO for the rest of the season, and CHONE predicts a .186 ISO.

Long-term, Colvin should hit for above-average power. But if he’s going to hold significant value to the Cubs and fantasy owners, he’s going to resist the temptation to lunge at those off-the-plate offerings.

Erik Kratz, Pirates (Owned in 0% of Yahoo leagues)

With Ryan Doumit looking lost behind the plate and the since-demoted Jason Jaramillo trotting down the first base line less often than Jalapeno Hannah, the Pirates decided to call up the 30-year-old Kratz.

A monster of a man at 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, Kratz is a former 29th-round pick from the Toronto Blue Jays’ organization who latched on with the Pirates as a minor league free agent prior to the 2009 season. The right-handed hitter posted a .273/.337/.470 line in 353 Triple-A PA last season, and he batted .296/.396/.550 in 225 trips to the plate in 2010 before getting the big league promotion.

It’s hard to say how much the organizational soldier will play, but he’s expected to garner more starts than Jaramillo did and caddy for the switch-hitting Doumit against lefties. During his career, Doumit has a .342 wOBA as a lefty versus RHP and a .309 wOBA against left-handers as a RHB. Using the method outlined here for estimating platoon skill, I get a .346 estimated wOBA for Doumit vs. RHP and a .322 estimated wOBA against lefties. Can Kratz match that? Overall, CHONE projects Kratz as a slightly below-average MLB hitter (.253/.318/.443, roughly a .322 wOBA). Assuming he shows a typical platoon split for a RHB (better against LHP), Kratz should be a bit of an upgrade over Doumit against lefties.

Depending upon the Pirates’ level of disgust in Doumit’s D, Kratz could get penciled into the lineup more frequently. He’s got some power, and that could make him an option in NL-only leagues.

Drew Stubbs, Reds (34%)

Cincy’s first-round pick in the 2006 draft is easing concerns that his bat won’t play well at the big league level. A 6-4, 205 pound center fielder known for wheels allowing him to cover lots of ground and swipe bases at a high percentage clip (77.1% in the minors), Stubbs never really stand out at the plate as a prospect. He hit a collective .269/.364/.401 in 1,847 plate appearances, with a good eye (11.9 BB%) but little in the way of pop (.132 ISO). Stubbs also whiffed 27.3% of the time, raising questions about his contact ability.

The former Longhorn’s defensive chops figured to make him an acceptable starter even if his offense was below-average, but happily, he’s holding his own with the lumber. In 546 major league PA over the past two years, Stubbs has a .257/.322/.434 line and a .337 wOBA. Sure, he’s coming up empty more than most — his contact rate is 73.4% (81% MLB average) and his K rate is 29.3% — but that hasn’t precluded him from succeeding. Stubbs has walked an acceptable 8.4% of the time, and he’s hitting with the authority that once led Baseball America to claim he possessed “plus raw power.” Stubbs has a .177 ISO in the majors, with 21 homers. He’s also contributing plenty on the base paths. After going 10-for-14 in SB attempts last season, Stubbs has been successful in 18 of 21 tries in 2010.

Given Stubbs’ mild numbers in the minors, both ZiPS (.240/.311/.378 rest-of-season projection) and CHONE (.246/.323/.379) are skeptical that the 25-year-old can keep up the pace. Personally, I think he’s capable of hitting at a level closer to his current mark. He’s not a hacker, he’s tapping into his power potential and he’s taking his home swings in a park that increases HR production by 35 percent for righty batters.

Man, moving into an old house is hard. Every little thing opens up into eight million other things you gotta do. Bah. But you don’t want to hear me whine, you want the waiver wire dirt. So here are a coupla outfielders that could do you good. (Yeah, grammar goes out the window when you are this exhausted.)

Tony Gwynn, Jr, Padres (1% owned)
Gwynn is no unqualified get – they rarely are at this stage of ownership – but he does have some things going for him. For one, it looks like he’s the best outfield defender on his team, going by his double-digit career UZR/150 in center compared to Scott Hairston’s single-digit number. He also can take a walk – his current 13.3% walk rate is second on the team in fact. Last, his current BABIP is so low that he figured highly on Goleblahblah’s xBABIP – BABIP list just the other day. A man that fast should not have a .255 BABIP. As the dinks and dunks fall in, he’ll be able to pair a passable batting average with good speed. With contact rates like he has (96.5% in the zone, 91.6% overall), he could even put up a good batting average. Of course, the rub is that he’s in a crowded outfield. Apologies to Oscar Salazar and Luis Durango, though, Gwynn is, at the very least, in the top four. Will Venable has some strikeout issues (that weren’t this bad in the minor leagues), and Aaron Cunnigham is finally showing something in the major leagues (but could take a walk here or there), so along with Hairston, the Pads have cobbled together a passable outfield. Some days, possibly against lefties (Gwynn had a lower OPS versus lefties in the minors), Hairston will play center field. The rest of the time, it will probably be Gwynn out there, so deeper leagues should look to Gwynn for steals.

Domonic Brown, Phillies (2% owned)
Rumors are rumors, but the newest rumors have Jayson Werth headed to Tampa. The Rays don’t seemingly go for Werth’s type usually (read: big-time in-season acquisition), but his contract expires at season’s end, and at $7.5 million is not onerous. For all the talk that Werth is somehow slumping, his slash line (.280/.371/.502) and wOBA (.376) are almost identical to last year’s (.268/.372/.506; .382). He’s not slumping. Yes, his ISO is a little down (.238 to .222), but it’s closer to his career numbers. So Werth is more probably the 2008 Werth than the 2009 Werth, but would anyone complain about a 20/20 outfielder either? Anyway, back to Brown. He was good enough to make our top 50 trade value list (at #50) and was named the number one Phillies prospect by maven Marc Hulet. We’ll allow space for a longer article concerning Brown (he seems to deserve it), but he’s 22, hitting .328/.389/.592 in Double-A and Triple-A combined this year, with speed (86 stolen bases in 416 minor league games at a 72% success rate) and power (.166 career ISO, with a full-season peak of .214). Let’s just call this a wake-up call for those in deeper leagues. There might be a nice prospect on the way.

Coco Crisp, Athletics (Owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues)

For Covelli Loyce Crisp to be relevant in fantasy circles, he does have to, you know, stay on the field. That has been a problem in recent years — the former Indian, Red Sock and Royal was limited to 215 plate appearances last season because of surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, and he was shelved this season until late May after fracturing his left pinky finger. Then, Crisp strained his right intercostal muscle, costing him another month’s worth of games. Recently, he has been battling a sore left hamstring .

While durability is a serious issue, Crisp does have something to offer owners. The 30-year-old has .372 wOBA in a very small sample (81 PA), with five stolen bases in six tries. Both his ZiPS (.250/.321/.400) and CHONE (.270/.345/.400) projections suggest he’s capable of being adequate offensively, and Crisp still possesses the speed to make some noise once he gets on base. He’s unreliable, but he can help out in the SB department without making outs at a Willy Taveras-like clip.

Brett Myers, Astros (22%)

Myers endured a disastrous 2009 season, missing a big chunk of time following right hip surgery in June and then straining his shoulder upon returning in September. His peripherals weren’t terrible in ten starts and eight relief appearances (6.37 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 4.32 xFIP), but Myers coughed up a mind-boggling 2.29 homers per nine innings — 23.4% of the time a batter hit a fly ball against him, it left the yard. Philly’s 1999 first-rounder had long posted lofty HR/FB rates (15.5% prior to 2010, compared to the 11% MLB average), but that ’09 rate was absurdly high.

Over the winter, the Astros inked Myers to a one-year, $5.1 million deal with a mutual option for the 2011 season. The 29-year-old righty has already earned that cash, and then some — with 2.2 WAR, Myers’ performance has been worth $8.7 million. He has gone to his breaking stuff (a mid-80’s slider and a high-70’s curve) even more than usual this season, and that game plan appears to be working — according to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers, Myers is throwing his slider for a strike 67.9% of the time (63.5% MLB average), and his curve is getting strikes 62.6% (58% MLB average).

He’s got 6.49 K/9, 2.72 BB/9 and an xFIP of exactly four in 129 innings. That HR/FB figure has plunged to 8.3%. That’s likely going to rise, and with it, so will Myers’ 3.35 ERA. But he’s capable of remaining an above-average starter. CHONE (4.60 neutralized ERA for the rest of the season) is skeptical, but ZiPS projects a 4.25 FIP. I’d lean more toward the latter projection.

It’s summer, it’s the weekend, and you ain’t got stuff to do. Well, maybe you should check that your lineups are set and your bench doesn’t have dead wood on it before you head out into the sun. You owe your fantasy teams that much at least.

Chris Perez, Cleveland (20% owned)
It’s your last chance to speculate on saves in Cleveland. The reasons to think Perez will be the eventual winner of the closer role are legion. He’s younger than Kerry Wood on a bad team looking to the future. He can be a better pitcher than Kerry Wood. He’s cheaper than Kerry Wood. Other teams are interested in trading for Kerry Wood. This is not to say that Perez is perfect. You’d like to see a lot more strikeouts than 7.60 per nine, a lot fewer walks than 4.72 per nine, and more groundballs than 32.6%. HIs 5.18 xFIP is really worrisome, actually, and you can see he’s been lucky (.236 BABIP, 82.1% LOB). On the other hand, his strikeout and walk rates have been much better in the past, and he does own a closer’s arsenal of strikeout stuff normally. He’s one of the better saves-speculation pickups out there, if not the best.

Jim Thome, Minnesota (5% owned)
On April 19th, Brian Joura big-upped Thome in his Waiver Wire piece. On May 19th, I reminded y’all. It’s another month later, so it’s time for your monthly Thome update. The most recent news has Justin Morneau hitting the DL with concussion issues and opening up a spot for Thome to play regularly. In OBP leagues, that’s all you had to say, because Thome is still elite in OBP (.372) and power (.287). If your league uses batting average, you’ll have to give him a longer think because he’ll never again post a nice batting average with those strikeout and contact rates.

Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee (Yet to be added to Yahoo database)
With Doug Davis hitting the DL, the Brew crew decided to call up long-time prospect Cain to help man the outfield. There are bushels of caveats to mention in Cain’s case. First, he’s been around a while, and it took him five years to get through the Brewer’s minor league system, which is not usually a positive. Second, the twenty-four year old was never once dominating, as his .782 career and .846 full-year peak minor league OPSes can attest. He’s also pretty much a speed-only guy, judging from his career minor league .416 SLG and .124 ISO. He’s more of a slight speedster (6’2″ 200 lbs, 123 stolen bases in 572 minor league games at a 78% success rate). He was also rated “The Tumbler” by Marc Hulet because of strikeout issues last year. The last notch against him is that the Milwaukee outfield is still crowded… for now. Corey Hart is rumored to be leaving town soon, and deep league speed-starved managers could do worse for a speculative pickup here. At least Cain is coming off his best year as an amateur, hitting .326/.407/.439 combined so far in 2010. He also cut his strikeouts this year (down to 20.7% from 24.1%), so he’s going well right now.

Aaron Cunningham, Padres (Owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues)

Cunningham, 24, has been traded as many times (three) as he has gone deep in the major leagues. The Chicago White Sox originally picked the righty batter in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but swapped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for INF Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then traded Cunningham to the Oakland A’s (along with LHPs Brett Anderson, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, OF Carlos Gonzalez and 1B/DH Chris Carter) for RHPs Dan Haren and Connor Robertson in December of ’07. This past winter, Oakland sent him to San Diego (with OF Scott Hairston) for 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and INF Eric Sogard.

That lengthy transaction history tells you two things about Cunningham — he’s a potentially useful player, but his talents aren’t so great as to make parting with him unbearable. His career minor league line is .304/.376/.484 in 2,300+ PA, including .296/.366/.475 in 667 PA at the Triple-A level. In the PCL, Cunningham has shown decent power (.179 ISO), but his strike-zone control hasn’t been especially sharp (8.8 BB%, 23.1 K%). Hot start with the Padres aside, his major league projections are tepid — .240/.298/.371 for the rest of 2010 according to ZiPS, and .257/.322/.413 per CHONE. Cunningham has been filling in for Will Venable (on the DL with a back injury), and his strong showing in a few weeks’ worth of games might excite some. But he looks like a fringe starter — the sort of player with whom teams play roster hot potato.

Cliff Pennington, Athletics (17%)

The 2010 season is Pennington’s chance to prove he’s capable of more than merely keeping the shortstop spot warm until Grant Green’s big league-ready. A first-round pick out of Texas A&M in 2005, Pennington pieced together a .263/.362/.358 line in nearly 2,200 minor league plate appearances. The switch-hitter displayed superb plate discipline (13.2 BB%) and he stole bases at a high-percentage clip (83.6%), but his lack of thump (.095 ISO) led to fears that he’d get the bat knocked out of his hands at the highest level.

So far, that hasn’t happened — Pennington’s got a career .325 wOBA and a 101 wRC+ in 672 big league PA. This season, the 26-year-old’s batting .264/.333/.392 and walking 9.4% of the time. Pennington will never be a power threat, but his .128 ISO is respectable. He has also nabbed 13 bags in 15 attempts, so he’s adding value once he reaches base. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .260/.331/.362 line. CHONE is less optimistic, at .246/.328/.344.

It’s probably too early to comment on Pennington’s defensive prowess, as he rates poorly by UZR (-7.5 runs per 150 defensive games during his career) and about average according to Total Zone. He might slide over to second long-term, where he’d still have to compete with Jemile Weeks (if Weeks can stay healthy), among others. But for now, Pennington’s good eye and speed make him an option in AL-only leagues.

It’s been a long time since we’ve updated the outfielders – moving across country will do that to you. While I struggled with boxes and furniture, injuries and mediocre play have done some serious damage at the top of the tier.

The Top Options:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.361 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.339 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.435 wOBA, .390 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.400 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.344 wOBA, .376 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.395 wOBA, .365 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.389 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.377 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.373 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This may upset some people, but it’s just hard to separate out an elite sub-set of outfielders right now. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton certainly have the upside to go on a tear and make this ranking seem silly, but right now they just aren’t showing it. They may even need to go on a tear just to get to the lower end of their preseason projections. Another way to spin this is that there are a lot of really nice outfielders. Everyone in this tier, all the way down to Carlos Gonzalez can give you positive value in all five fantasy categories. Upton’s strikeout rate might mean that his batting average will sink him out of this tier, but he’s also shown lower strikeout rates and higher batting averages in the past, so let’s not count him out yet.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.351 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.381 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.399 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.362 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA))
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.279 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.382 wOBA, .378 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Although this tier is headed up by a couple of veterans, it’s the young speedsters that have the better chance of moving up the ladder. Ichiro! will give you the batting average, but the rest of his line looks a little too much like Denard Span’s to award him first-tier status, and it’s McCutchen that might soon put up Crawford-like numbers to advance tiers. Torii Hunter has power and speed, but it’s a healthy Shin-Soo Choo that has the stronger batting average, so therefore more upside.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York AL (.371 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Dunn, Washington (.403 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the group that provides OF1-like production in deeper leagues, but they’d make a shallow mixed league roster look a little wonky. Brett Gardner and Jayson Werth are the risers here, but Adam Dunn belongs even with his batting average. Manny Ramirez may just fall another tier, especially if he’s out much longer after the break. He’s still good when he’s in, though.

Upside to Join the Top
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.321 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.388 wOBA, .347 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.349 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.373 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.363 wOBA, .362 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Colby Rasmus fans will hem and haw, but they might want to check the rest-of-season projections for Curtis Granderson before they get too heated up. They both have some platoon issues (Granderson’s are more pronounced), both don’t have great batting averages, and both have great power and speed. Oh, and this space feels a little vindicated by Carlos Quentin’s recent hot streak, which has shown that he still has much power, even if the batting average is a problem. The BABIP is so low that with additional regression even the batting average might be nice for the second half.