In remembrance of the formerly-talented, forever-volatile Milton Bradley, who was designated for assignment yesterday by the Mariners following two ejections and a one-game suspension last week, here are three other American League outfielders rostered in about three-quarters of leagues that owners shouldn’t feel bad about giving the Bradley treatment at this point in the season.
Maybe it’s just because I’ve been keeping such close watch on my AL outfielders beat, but it seems that no position in fantasy baseball has seen more fluctuation in the first month of the season than this one. There are former studs still hitting sub-.200 (here’s to you, Carl Crawford, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells) while lesser-thought of has-beens are piling up RBIs (hello, Jeff Francoeur, Alex Gordon and Johnny Damon). And that’s to say nothing of a fella named Sam Fuld who’s gone from complete after-thought to straight up legen — wait for it — dary.
How do we make sense of such who-could’ve-seen-this-coming-ness? Why, by updating the RotoGraphs AL outfielders rankings, of course!
A couple weeks ago, we updated the National League outfielder rankings. This week, we update a couple players that weren’t even on those rankings.
Jason Bourgeois, Houston (1% owned in Yahoo, 0.8% in ESPN)
Jason Bourgeois has no power, like none at all. His career ISO (.065) would put him at 19th-worst in the category among qualified players this year and his minor league power rates don’t suggest that he has much upside beyond. He also dodesn’t walk a ton. His 7.4% career rate is below average, he hasn’t walked in 36 plate appearances so far this year, and his best minor league walk rate in a season with more than 200 plate appearances was almost exactly average – 8.0% in Double-A with the Mariners in 2006. There also isn’t much to get excited about in terms of pedigree or prospectitude. He’s 29 years old and has been shuttling between Triple-A and the majors for four years now. He’s your typical fourth or fifth outfielder – not really a center fielder according to defensive metrics, but without the power you’d expect from a corner outfielder. Here’s the thing though. He has speed (30 stolen bases between Triple-A and the majors for the Astros last year) and doesn’t really strike out much (13.6% career, 11.1% this year). Oh, and Carlos Lee has a rib contusion, so he may have a bougie last name, but he also has some playing time coming. Deep leaguers that need steals, take note.
Xavier Paul, Pittsburgh (0% owned in Yahoo, 0.1% in ESPN)
Another flawed player stuck without the profile of either a traditional center fielder or corner outfielder, Xavier Paul has turned up where all failed prospects eventually tread: Pittsburgh. Now that Jose Tabata may need some time to rest his hamstring, Paul is in line for more playing time. Paul has shown a little more power away from Los Angeles, but is also striking out about two-fifths of the time. Most likely, he strikes out less and his .500 BABIP returns to earth, and the two effects cancel each other out to an extent. Expect an okay batting average with a handful of steals in the next couple weeks, but it’s unlikely that Paul unseats anyone. Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz fit together like a glove because of their platoon splits, and Andrew McCutchen is not going anywhere. Paul is more of a deep league injury replacement than a speculative pick because his lack of power and centerfield glove are flaws he may not overcome.
The mantra of FanGraphs is “Do not put too much faith into small sample sizes.” We all have it tattood on our chests, just below a picture of the site’s founder, Dave Appleman.
In the world of fantasy baseball that mantra can be twisted a bit, as we will gladly ride a player on a hot streak as far as he will take us. That doesn’t mean we believe in the statistics the player is putting up – more often than not he’s dumped when the hot hitting ends. A lot of fluky things can happen over the course of ~100PA. It’s up to you to decide what is legitimate and what isn’t. Take Chris Coghlan for example.
In all honesty, virtually all of the legitimate talent has likely already been plucked from your league’s waiver wire by now. Everyone gets so transaction crazy early on, that it’s hard to believe there are still some stones left unturned. And yet, there always seems to be a player or two that slips through the cracks for a variety of reasons. Here’s a look at two that might interest you… Read the rest of this entry »
When searching each week for those under-owned gems for deep league use, it reminds me how bad I feel for those Only-leaguers dealing with an injury. Your replacement options are throw up inducing and you’re basically flipping a coin between two hitters that get five at-bats a week. That is no fun! Though the first player discussed below is most certainly owned in all NL-Only leagues, he should be available in deeper mixed leagues and would therefore be worth a look.
Nearly a month into the season, the time is nigh to update the RotoGraphs preseason ranks at each position. Some have already been done, in fact. We’ll be getting to AL Outfielder Ranks Version 2.0 next week, but to tide you over in the meantime, here are a pair of Alexes — one Riser and one Faller. Consider your appetite whetted.
This week in the national league outfield we’ve got two interesting players – one for shallow leagues and one for deeper leagues. Happy hunting.
Dexter Fowler (39% owned in Yahoo, 63.6% owned in ESPN)
Call this an appeal to the Yahoo owners who are on the fence about Fowler, because something about the ESPN game has made him more appealing already. ESPN projected Fowler to hit .275 with seven home runs and 27 steals, while Yahoo thought his 2011 would look more like .266 with five home runs and 25 steals. That might explain a little bit of the variance, and perhaps ESPN has more five-outfield rosters. In any case, Fowler is definitely ownable.
While the obvious strategy is to have everyday players in your lineup to achieve maximum offensive production, sometimes, it makes sense to go with a platoon player. Maybe the at bats aren’t as regular — maybe he gets only three or four starts per week. But if his numbers are solid and he’s outproducing some of your regulars, then why not give him a try. Here’s a pair of platooners worth a look right now… Read the rest of this entry »
Today’s Deep League Waiver provides fantasy owners with a potential third base replacement for Ian Stewart and my first dive into the pitching free agent pool.