For the first time in 14 seasons, Bobby Abreu failed to record double-digit totals in both home runs and stolen bases.  He picked up 21 steals this season, but his power fell off considerably as he only hit 8 home runs and posted his lowest ISO (.112) since his very first cup of coffee with the Astros in 1996.  And for the second consecutive season, he posted a batting average in the .250’s, also reminiscent of his late 90’s time in Houston.  Now, no one wants to be the one left holding the bag when the bottom falls out on a star player, so the question that fantasy owners must ask themselves on Draft Day 2012 is, “Is he done or can we squeeze one more productive season out of him?”

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Baseball is a grind. It’s 162 games played nearly every day over a six-month period. By extension, then, the fantasy version of this unending onslaught of a sport can be — and often is — just as overwhelming.

Look, it happens: Late-summer hits and the portion of your brain that was tending to your fantasy baseball team on a regular basis instead shifts its focus to other things, like vacation, fantasy football or the hot chick named Tiffany who spent the summer as a lifeguard at the local beach and hung out all the time at your favorite bar.

That’s why, unless your team was good enough to be in contention all the way down to the stretch run, chances are, you missed out on a few things as the season wore on, particularly into August and September. That’s when the non-contenders tend to check out (if they haven’t done so weeks before), but it’s also about the time that even those chasing after that elusive championship start suffering from tunnel vision as their eyes become focused solely on the prize.

Now that we’re a couple weeks removed from the crush and rush of the final days of the fantasy season, allow me to point out a batch of American League outfielders who performed better than you might have realized, thanks to end-of-season surges or new opportunities. There just might be a nugget or two in here that you didn’t notice the first time around. You know, while you were too busy ogling Tiffany.

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Carlos Lee is best known for the 6 year, $100M contract he signed with the Astros. While he has not lived up to it as a player, he has be a serviceable fantasy option. His home run power has been going down steadily and it is degrading his fantasy value.

The 35-year-old is seeing his power numbers take a nose dive over the past few years. His home run total have gone down each year starting in 2006 with 37 HR and ending with 18 in 2011. The drop in power can be attributed to his inability to hit the ball as far. Here is a graph of his home run and fly ball distances over the past 4 years with a LOESS averaging curve added:

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On a team accused of aging quickly — though the space-time continuum has something to say about that — Domonic Brown is the youngest, most exciting offensive piece. But now he’s spent two seasons on the quad-A shuttle and all he has to show for it are some mediocre-looking statistics. Is he still on his way up? Is he a decent keeper?

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A great band name?  Definitely.  Especially if you’ve got a series of gigs in downtown Cincinnati.  But we’re going to stick to fantasy baseball here and talk about the fact that Drew Stubbs’ league leading 205 strikeouts (yes, that’s right, he struck out more than Mark Reynolds) may just help you land what could be one of 2012’s most valuable fantasy assets.  Sure, his 15 home runs and 40 stolen bases will keep him on most people’s radar, but the .243 average, those strikeouts, and the overall decline from 2010’s breakout season should help keep the price down and allow you to grab him at a more bargain cost.

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It’s a light schedule today, with two American League games on the docket. But there’s still fantasy to be played — ottoneu Pick Six continues through the playoffs — so let’s take a look at a couple matchups for tonight.

Matt Joyce ($0.50)
Joyce comes with the right price and will probably end up on a lot of teams today because of it. His two-run home run in game two might make him even more tempting. But really the best reason to pick up Joyce is his platoon advantage against a pitcher with platoon problems. Joyce the lefty is going against Colby Lewis the righty, who has shown a 4.67 xFIP against lefties over his career (and a 3.97 xFIP against righties which has dropped to 3.5ish the last two years combined). The slider is Lewis’ best pitch, and the slider has platoon issues. Oh and Joyce likes sliders (+2.8 runs by linear weights). If only this matchup was in Texas, where those fly balls Lewis gives up turn into home runs more often. That’s okay, this is still a great matchup for the hitter.

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It’s the death throes of the fantasy season, but some of you are still looking for every single at-bat you can get. Here are a couple players that might get you an extra hit or run. Who knows, it could make a difference!

Jason Pridie (0% owned)
You know the Mets’ season has taken an even sharper turn for the worse when their announcers are stupefied by something. But when Angel Pagan brained himself on a swing last week… well.. Let’s let the video speak for itself:

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With the season swiftly coming to a close, I thought I would take a look back at some of my deep league waiver wire recommendations from early in the season. This exercise is not to gloat, but to examine the players and if their performance this year changes their future outlook and role for next season. Upon reviewing my recs, most did not do much, but two guys really stood out: Ryan Roberts and Chris Heisey.

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Let’s continue looking ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop

Up next? Outfielders.

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Injuries at this time of year, especially to your star players, can be absolutely brutal.  Head to head league owners are playing in championship games and every little bit of production helps as your roto season winds down.  With the likelihood that your waiver wire has been picked cleaner than a Thanksgiving turkey at Fatty McButterpants’ house, grabbing a last minute injury replacement just might be enough to carry you to the end.  For you NL-only leaguers and deep mixed league owners, here are two you might consider.

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