Two weeks ago I followed up on Chris Cwik’s look at several busts from the past season with some more names. Now it is time to look at the opposite side of the coin, those supposed duds who turned out to be studs. In the studs to duds article, I explained why you might want to consider trading for each particular player. This time I will dive into why it may be prudent to trade away the player in question. Of course, I will have to ignore the cost to keep the player since every league has different rules. So think of this section as more of a handful of reasons why the player will be overvalued.

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It’s been a rough last couple of seasons for Grady Sizemore. After accumulating 27.4 WAR from 2005-2008 — making him the fourth most valuable position player in the league over that same period — injuries have crippled the superstar outfielder. Despite his recent struggles, the Cleveland Indians have once again enlisted Sizemore’s services for the 2012 season. It’s been quite a while since Sizemore made an impact on fantasy teams. Should fantasy owners expect more of the same in 2012?

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Two National League outfielders didn’t quite make the final keeper tier, and they’re likely to be strong bounce-back players next year with statistics that would put them in the fourth or fifth tier. Why didn’t I put Andre Ethier and Jayson Werth in those keeper tiers if that’s the case?

It has more to do with perception and relative value, or the ins and outs of keeper leagues, than it does with those actual players.

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Last winter, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth both hit the free agent market, signed with East division rivals and received lavish seven-year deals securing them enough cash to make like Scrooge McDuck and dive into their own personal swimming pools filled with gold coins. Crawford got $142 million to trek from Tampa Bay to Boston, and Werth left Philly for Washington for a cool $126 million. Crawford’s average draft position in ESPN leagues entering 2011 was fourth overall, and Werth’s ADP was 47. Both were prime picks expected to anchor fantasy lineups.

Unfortunately, both landed in their new digs with a Peter Griffin-like thud. Crawford posted the lowest batting average (.255) and OBP (.289) marks of his career while stealing just 18 bases, nearly 30 bags fewer than he nabbed with the Rays in 2010. Werth hit .232 and slugged .389, popping a disappointing 20 home runs.

Suffice it to say, neither will be drafted as high in 2012. But which is the better bet to bounce back? Let’s take a closer look at pros and cons of each high-price fly catcher.

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We’ve looked at four tiers worth of National League Outfield Keepers. That’s 13 dudes, or at least one keeper per team in a 12-team NL-only. If you’re in a traditional keeper league — one in which you keep fewer than eight players — then we’ve probably come to the end of your more attractive keepers. So many of the remaining options are buy-low guys better acquired at a draft or auction, or they are solid performers with real flaws that don’t figure to go away. Or they are older players that you are just keeping because nobody will buy them from you.

But let’s look at the best of the rest, shan’t we?

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It’s been less than  a month since the Twins fired Bill Smith and replaced him with new GM Terry Ryan and after just two quick moves in free agency, the Twins roster looks to be a taking a different shape for 2012.  The signing of Jamey Carroll and subsequent announcement of him as the team’s new starting shortstop put the incumbent middle infielders on official notice while the signing of Ryan Doumit sheds some light on the club’s confidence in DL regulars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and possible departure of other free agents.  We’ve already had Dan Wade cover Carroll and the infield and Chris Cwik has given his thoughts on Doumit’s situation, but how about the team beyond?  What does this mean for Mauer and Morneau?  Does Doumit’s signing put an official end to Michael Cuddyer’s and Jason Kubel’s tenure in Minnesota?  And finally, what does all of this mean for fantasy owners?

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Seeing Alex Rios lumped in with uninspiring names like Brennan Boesch and Jason Kubel in the fifth outfielder keeper ranking tier reminds us just how much this recent five-category contributor has fallen. There seemed to be something in the water in Chi-Town this season, as there were quite a few offensive busts this year. With a new manager in town, does Rios lead the Sox offensive rebound or has the Windy City swept his fantasy value under the rug for good?

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We’ve made it to the end, friends. Yes, it’s the fifth — and final — tier of the RotoGraphs keeper rankings for 2012, American League outfielder style. No doubt, owners in very (very!) deep AL-only keeper leagues may notice a name or two that they are considering as potential keepers isn’t included among the full ranks. As is, there are more players included at this position than at most others, so frankly, I’m choosing to cut things off before we have to consider debating the relative keeper merits of a recently-injured Josh Reddick, a 54-year-old Bobby Abreu and a utilityman disguised as an outfielder who goes by the name of Ryan Raburn. You’ll forgive me, won’t you? (Either that or ask me your remaining conundrums in the comments.)

If you’ve followed along this far: Congratulations! You’ve been entered to win a prize of some as yet determined, but ultimately inconsequential, value. Thanks for playing.

Let’s finish this puppy off.

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It’s the early offseason. Very few free agents have signed, and no trades have been completed. The GMs are in Milwaukee without internet and with wintry mix. The winter meetings are still a week or two away. Perfect time for a mock draft, or at least so thought Derek Van Riper at RotoWire. So he got us all together for a 15-team 30-round NFBC-style colossus of a mock draft last week — here are the results for your own perusal.

There are a million ways to break down a draft, so if you want more on this, let me know. to keep it simple at first, let’s just highlight some picks that seemed like the steals and reaches of the draft.

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With Matt Kemp’s $160 million extension in the news today, it’s time to take a closer look at what his 2012 will look like. After all, the near 40/40 man went sixth overall in last week’s RotoWire industry mock draft (which I will write up on Wednesday), so it’s highly relevant in more ways than one.

Thankfully, we roto-heads don’t have to worry about his defense. Or at least, most of us don’t. Some of us play in leagues with separated outfield positions, so his defense will be relevant. But, considering his value is highest to the team if he can remain a center fielder, let’s assume that he will be CF-eligible for the next three years or so.

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