Archive for Outfielders

Back in November I discussed bargain shopping in Houston and how there are still a few hidden gems that would make for strong selections at the tail end of your draft.  Well, today, we’re going to look at another perennial cellar-dwelling team and see what kind of fantasy gold can be found.  Funny thing, though, is that these Royals — these, more often than not, punching bags of the AL — are looking pretty darn good lately and there’s going to be quite the battle to obtain a number of their players’ services in fantasy drafts this year.

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When Brennan Boesch got off to a great start in 2010, I was one of the many who pointed out why he was certainly due for a regression in the largest way, and you probably were too. On July 9 that season, Boesch was hitting .345/.402/.600 with 12 home runs, 48 RBI, and 34 R. He was extremely useful in fantasy over that stretch, but most who follow advanced stats knew that the performance was bound to decline.

His BABIP at that time was .390, which was the first sign that the season seemed inauthentic. On top of that, Boesch was coming off of a season at double-A in which he posted a .318 OBP and a 5.8% walk rate. He had also never appeared on Baseball America’s list of top-10 Tiger prospects. He slowed down significantly after that date, hitting .166/.237/.227 for the remainder of that year.
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We — collectively — are going to steal Mike Podhorzer’s idea and make some crazy predictions for the coming season. Every year, something happens to surprise baseball viewership. Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman come to mind over the past few years.

So let’s try to open our minds and let crazy in for some fun. Then we’ll look back at the end of the season and see which RotoGraphs staff member can access the other side most effectively — then we’ll scoot down the bench a little away from him.

1) No player will hit 40 home runs this year. Obviously Mike Stanton and Jose Bautista loom large, but there were only three guys that managed the feat last year, and the point is that power is down. Handy graph time!

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When building your supporting cast, finding a few breakthrough candidates is paramount to your success.  Hopefully your studs perform as they should and your late round sleepers find a way to outshine their draft positions, but on the chance that something goes awry, having some middle round breakthroughs could be the difference between winning your league and being an also-ran.  Drafting Orioles center fielder Adam Jones would be a great place to start.

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With Yu Darvish sufficiently crowdsourced, it’s time to look at this offseason’s other big international import: Yoenis Cespedes. Last week we asked you about his acquisition cost, specifically when you would be comfortable grabbing him in three formats…

1. 12-team mixed league, 5×5 scoring
2. $260 budget, 5×5 scoring
3. $400 budget, ottoneu points

We received a total of 325 responses, and the results are as follows…

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After a down year, Colby Rasmus’s fantasy draft vaue has dropped drastically. Last year, he was going somewhere near the eighth or ninth round. This year, Rasmus is going in round 17, with an ADP of 207.3. Both Vernon Wells and Carlos Lee have better ADPs than Rasmus, which should simply not be the case. Regardless, the significant drop in Rasmus’s draft position is well deserved. He had an on base percentage below .300 last year, and his only useful fantasy stat was his 14 long balls, nine fewer than he hit in 2011.

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Mike Stanton has a ton of power, and if component hitter aging curves are to be believed, the 22-year-old should be able to improve his strikeout rate — and therefore his batting average. With power down across baseball, he’s a stud.

24-year-old Jay Bruce also has gobs of power. His strikeout rate is better than Stanton’s, and with neutral luck, he should have a better batting average. Last year, he hit two fewer home runs than the Marlin, and he’s entering his prime years in a hitter’s park. He’s a stud.

So why is Mike Stanton going more than a round before Jay Bruce in most snake drafts?

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When news broke that 39 year old, lefty slugger Raul Ibanez was signing with the Yankees, his ADP took a significant jump.  In fact, he jumped nearly 35 picks (3 rounds in a 12-team league), going from 21st round bench help to 18th round possible fifth or sixth outfielder.  But while there still may be something left in the tank, Ibanez won’t be an everyday player.  He might make for an acceptable option in deep AL-only leagues but for mixed leagues, he’ll better serve you on the “plug and play” level.

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After finally having somewhat of a breakout season in 2010, after showing little progress over the previous three seasons, Delmon Young disappointed once again last season, actually posting the worst wOBA of his career. He dealt with injuries to his oblique and ankle, which limited him to 473 at-bats and likely hurt his production. With the addition of Prince Fielder, let’s see if we should expect a rebound.

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Yu Darvish isn’t baseball’s only super-hyped, high-priced international import this year; the Athletics also made waves when they signed Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. There has been some speculation that he could begin the season in the minors just to get acclimated to the best pitching he’s ever faced (as well as shake off the rust after such a long layoff), but it doesn’t sound like that will happen after signing for four years and $36 million.

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