Delmon Young has a had an up and down career with more downs than ups, but I think he can provide more value to a roto team this year than most initially assume. He is coming off a year in which he played in 124 games and netted just an 88 wRC+, but I still believe he can produce in a potent Tiger lineup.

Delmon is just one year removed from a .298/.333/.493 line in which he hit 21 homers and drove in 112 RBI. That was a stellar fantasy year, as he produced well in many standard categories. While he will always have a very poor walk rate, his bat control is decent and he should not kill your team’s average. In fact, there’s a good chance he improves it, as his career .288 average is rather respectable.

His season last year was poor, but he is in a better situation in Detroit. In his 40 games in Detroit last season, he hit 8 home runs and batted .274. This was a small sample, but it shows that his power really came on late in the season. According to StatCorner, Detroit’s home ballpark has a 108 home run factor for right-handed hitters compared to 95 for Minnesota’s. Comerica Park is pitcher friendly, but right-handers are able to push the ball out of the stadium at an above average rate, which should help Young’s home run total.

Also greatly helping Young this year will be his placement in the lineup. Batting directly behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder should give Young a great opportunity to hit with men on base and drive in runs. For reference, the league average line with men on base last year was .261/.332/.403 compared to .255/.321/.399. There is not a huge uptick in numbers with men on base, but there is a good opportunity for Young to be in that position more frequently than most hitters since two hitters who are expected to produce OBPs near or above .400 hit in front of him.

ZiPS projects a .283 average, 18 homers, and 86 RBI for Young, which is serviceable for a fantasy lineup. Delmon is one of the rare breeds whose fantasy value likely trumps their actual on field value. Delmon has only appeared in 20 games at DH in his career, so his .316/.345/.494 line as a DH does not guarantee success in that position. The 10% discount in production given to pinch hitters is assumed by designated hitters as well, so there is reason to be cautionary in regards to Young’s move to primary DH. It is worthwhile to keep track of how the Tigers use their DH position though, as Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder may end up with more plate appearances at DH than Young as the season advances.

In short, there are plenty of reasons to dislike Young but there are also reasons to expect him to produce well. He is the type of hitter I take a flier on in the later rounds, as he can produce well in four categories for a cheap price. He may bust, but he is in a good situation, in a stadium that should help his home run total, and is still just 26 years old. Your team won’t be devastated if you pass up on Delmon, but you could be missing out on good fantasy value at a very cheap price.

Over the last few days, Howard Bender, Chad Young, and Ben Duronio have been writing about three players they will each avoid this season (parts one, two, three, and four), and now I’m going to join in on the fun.

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Well, since the last installment received so much attention — both positive and negative — I figured we should have another go-around here.  Only this time, in an effort to create more dialogue and draw even more of your ire, I took the advice from some of you and looked more towards the upper rounds of the draft.  Personally, I think telling you not to waste your time with a particular player in the lower rounds is a bit more helpful than this — sure, there’s less risk in the 19th round and you don’t care if you eventually drop the guy, but why waste the pick in the first place?  But alas, this is what you asked for my dear RotoGraphs readers and this is what you get… Read the rest of this entry »

After batting exactly .300 with over 20 home runs and 20 steals in two consecutive seasons, Shin-Soo Choo’s fantasy value was at an all-time high entering last year. I was all aboard the Soo Choo train, and owned him throughout his frustrating injury plagued season. The Korean outfielder hit just .251 with eight home runs and 12 steals in 358 plate appearances. It was a disappointing season, to say the least.

The poor season was certainly unfortunate, but this may be the perfect time to take advantage of his cheap price and acquire him at a discount. A broken thumb last season seems to be the biggest reason for his struggles, along with a DUI and an oblique injury. The thumb injury would have the most correlation with the poor numbers though, as his plate discipline numbers remained consistent with past performances but his power and BABIP both dropped.

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OK, so the language in the title might be a bit inflammatory.  I can’t, with 100% certainty, say that I absolutely, positively won’t draft these guys, but based on the current chatter and their ADP rankings, they will not be targets for me.  Now, if they somehow slipped a few rounds and it looks like they could, potentially, be a bargain, then I might think otherwise, but that’s a pretty big “if” for me right now.  Here’s who I’m avoiding… Read the rest of this entry »

Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Introducing our revamped ranking process! In the interest of getting our rankings to you, our beloved readers, we will be pumping out the main consensus rankings as close to daily as possible for the next week and a half.

First up are the outfielders. Of particular note might be the rankings of Jason Heyward, Giancarlo Cruz Mike Stanton (and Jay Bruce!), Alex Gordon, Kendrys Morales and Marlon Byrd — for the divergence in our appraisals — as well as the rankings of Brennan Boesch, Logan Morrison, and Carl Crawford — for the convergence in our thinking.

Expect our positional correspondents to highlight players with unique ranks over the coming week. And then each of those positional experts will also be included in the next generation of our rankings. We’ll continue to update these rankings over the course of the season, as we always have.

Thanks to FantasyPros, you will be able to see our individual ranks as well as our consensus. Good luck this season.

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Back in November I discussed bargain shopping in Houston and how there are still a few hidden gems that would make for strong selections at the tail end of your draft.  Well, today, we’re going to look at another perennial cellar-dwelling team and see what kind of fantasy gold can be found.  Funny thing, though, is that these Royals — these, more often than not, punching bags of the AL — are looking pretty darn good lately and there’s going to be quite the battle to obtain a number of their players’ services in fantasy drafts this year.

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When Brennan Boesch got off to a great start in 2010, I was one of the many who pointed out why he was certainly due for a regression in the largest way, and you probably were too. On July 9 that season, Boesch was hitting .345/.402/.600 with 12 home runs, 48 RBI, and 34 R. He was extremely useful in fantasy over that stretch, but most who follow advanced stats knew that the performance was bound to decline.

His BABIP at that time was .390, which was the first sign that the season seemed inauthentic. On top of that, Boesch was coming off of a season at double-A in which he posted a .318 OBP and a 5.8% walk rate. He had also never appeared on Baseball America’s list of top-10 Tiger prospects. He slowed down significantly after that date, hitting .166/.237/.227 for the remainder of that year.
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We — collectively — are going to steal Mike Podhorzer’s idea and make some crazy predictions for the coming season. Every year, something happens to surprise baseball viewership. Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman come to mind over the past few years.

So let’s try to open our minds and let crazy in for some fun. Then we’ll look back at the end of the season and see which RotoGraphs staff member can access the other side most effectively — then we’ll scoot down the bench a little away from him.

1) No player will hit 40 home runs this year. Obviously Mike Stanton and Jose Bautista loom large, but there were only three guys that managed the feat last year, and the point is that power is down. Handy graph time!

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When building your supporting cast, finding a few breakthrough candidates is paramount to your success.  Hopefully your studs perform as they should and your late round sleepers find a way to outshine their draft positions, but on the chance that something goes awry, having some middle round breakthroughs could be the difference between winning your league and being an also-ran.  Drafting Orioles center fielder Adam Jones would be a great place to start.

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