The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• We’ve reached Championship week in Ottoneu head-to-head leagues. Hopefully, your pitching staff is filled with starters who have favorable matchups and that you have enough pitchers to hit your games started cap.
• It’s a tough week for the Diamondbacks as they travel to Colorado and then to Milwaukee to face the hot hitting Brew Crew. Milwaukee also has a couple of tough matchups next week, hosting the Phillies and the D-Backs. Not that you were rostering any of their pitchers anyway, but it’s a bad week for the Rockies; after hosting Arizona, they head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers.
• Along with that matchup against the Rockies, the Dodgers also get a series in Miami next week and will also finish off a wraparound four-game series against the Braves on Monday. Their pitching staff is pretty chaotic right now and I definitely don’t trust Walker Buehler or Bobby Miller, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an easy start for his two starts and Jack Flaherty should continue to dominate. There’s also a possibility that Tyler Glasnow will be activated off the IL after throwing a bullpen session this week.
• The Royals are the other team with a pair of easier matchups next week and I can wholeheartedly recommend all of their starters except for Alec Marsh.

With just two and half weeks left in the regular season, we’re entering crunch time for teams still vying for a fantasy baseball championship. Hitting your innings caps in Ottoneu leagues is one of the most important ways you can maximize your roster to its fullest extent. Here are four starters who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be useful pickups for the final stretch of the season. I’ve also tried to guess at these pitches potential opponents through the end of the season, provided their teams stay on schedule and no injuries occur. With so few days left to affect your position in the standings, every start can make a difference.

The last time I ran this column, I wrote up Frankie Montas since he had made some improvements to his repertoire since joining the Brewers at the deadline. This time around, I’ll feature the other starter Milwaukee acquired midseason, Aaron Civale. He didn’t have a great start to his stint with the Brew Crew, but he’s been a lot better since August with a 3.58 ERA and a 4.13 FIP over his last seven starts. The key to his turnaround has been the reintroduction of a slider to his pitch mix. That gives him a breaking ball that sits between his cutter and his sweeper, giving batters an even harder time picking up any one of those three pitches. He’s got a couple of tough starts against the Diamondbacks in the near future, but that start in Pittsburgh the final week of the season looks really nice.

I also wrote up Matthew Boyd in this column a few weeks ago and he’s turned in three excellent starts since then. The most encouraging thing is that he’s finally getting whiffs with his breaking balls which has helped him strike out nearly 35% of the batters he’s faced during his last three starts. He’s also got two pretty decent matchups on his schedule before a bit of a risky play against the Astros to finish the season.

Brant Hurter is a little bit of an unorthodox option in Ottoneu. He’s made just one traditional start during his time in the big leagues and has acted as the bulk pitcher behind an opener in his other six appearances. In Ottoneu, you need to slot your pitchers in the role they’re used by their teams which means you need to pay attention to whether or not Detroit is using an opener for Hurter or not. As for Hurter himself, he’s been pretty effective in his bulk role. He throws from a low, three-quarters slot which imparts a ton of horizontal movement to his sinker and sweeper. He also recently developed a changeup which has given him a weapon to use against right-handed batters. If he stays on schedule, he’s got two risky matchups against the Orioles and Royals before an easier outing against the Rays.

Here’s another stretch of a recommendation. Jakob Junis was picked up by the Reds in the Frankie Montas trade as a throw in — Joey Wiemer was the real target in that deal — and has mostly pitched in short stints out of the bullpen this year. Injuries in Cincinnati’s starting rotation have forced them to use him in longer stints recently. He completed five innings in his last start against the Mets and has only allowed a single run in his previous three outings. He’s enjoyed some success in the past thanks to his elite slider, but a litany of injuries have sapped him of much of his effectiveness. Two of his final outings will come away from Great American Ballpark, which should be a great benefit to him. You can probably treat him as a dart throw, but if you’re really desperate for innings, he’s an option that won’t cost much.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• The only schedule quirk worth mentioning is that the Braves and Reds play a makeup game on Monday, September 9. That means that Cincinnati will play in four different cities in 10 days and will fly from New York to Atlanta and then to St. Louis from Sunday to Tuesday.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• Ottoneu head-to-head playoffs begin next week which means every single start will matter all the more and hitting your games started cap is of utmost importance.
• The schedule is a pretty mixed bag next week. The only team with a pair of good or bad matchups is the Orioles who get the punchless White Sox and Rays at home. Even though they’re not double red above, it’s probably a good idea to fade starters from the Giants and Guardians since both the Royals and Diamondbacks have been among the hottest teams in baseball recently.
• With the Monday holiday, a number of teams have a Tuesday off day in the middle of a series. Teams may use that opportunity to reslot their rotations or give some of their younger starters some additional rest. Keep an eye out for any last-minute schedule changes.