The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

A bunch of teams have easier schedules this weekend including the Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, and Tigers.

Difficult schedules include the Angles, Brewers, Cubs, Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Twins, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Despite all the teams with bad matchups, there’s a full slate of recommendations this weekend. The two young starters from the Braves, Dylan Dodd and Bryce Elder, are scheduled to make starts in Kansas City against the Royals. The former had a rough outing against the Padres in his last start, allowing seven runs in 4.1 innings. The Royals should prove to be a much easier opponent. Elder just held the Reds scoreless over 6.1 innings in his start on Monday and hasn’t allowed a run in either of his starts this year.

The two Padres pitchers are creeping up in ownership since the start of the season and both are light recommendations against the Brewers. It’s not an obvious matchup to exploit since Milwaukee has actually been hitting pretty well to start the season, but it’s at home and both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo have proven they can be counted on this season. The latter has been particularly impressive in his return to the rotation with another strong start coming against the Braves on Sunday.

Anthony DeSclafani turned in another solid start in his last turn through the rotation and he gets a really easy matchup against the Tigers in their huge ballpark. On the other side of that matchup, Matthew Boyd could be a bit more of a risky pick. He handled the Astros and Red Sox okay, allowing two runs in each of those starts, but he hasn’t been able to pitch out of the fifth inning yet. He’s allowed as many walks as he has strikeouts so the efficiency is still lacking.

Jhony Brito is lined up to make his third start of his career after capably handling the Orioles last weekend. He gets a tougher opponent in the Twins so this will be a pretty tough test for him. I’m recommending him anyway. Michael Grove did not fare well in his second start after impressing in his season debut; he allowed nine runs to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He’ll get the Cubs at home in his next start and that’s a bit of a risk given the high home run park factor of Dodger Stadium. I’d understand if you wanted to wait and see how he performs this weekend before picking him up.

Recap: April 7–9

A much better weekend after those terrible results during the first week in April. I count two clear wins and no losses. The surprise was Brad Keller’s performance against the Giants. The strikeouts weren’t there, but he held San Francisco to just three hits in 5.2 innings of work. That’ll play. Nick Pivetta’s start got pushed back to Monday, but he performed well against the Rays, shutting them out over five innings with six strikeouts and just two walks.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Adds

Darick Hall, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 33.97%

RotoWire estimates a return to action by mid-July after Hall goes through surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. It’s a shame since Hall was going to get a chance to be the everyday first baseman for the Phillies after Rhys Hoskins‘ knee injury vacated the spot. Now, the Phillies have shifted things around the infield placing Alec Bohm at first and sliding Edmundo Sosa over to the 3B position. That leaves Kody Clemens and Josh Harrison as the IF/OF utility options to fill in positions when needed, with Harrison likely filling a platoon spot against righties. In any case, managers who rostered Hoskins, then Hall, and are now looking for replacements may have to split the playing time between a few players and may need to find players with sneaky 1B eligibility. Here are a few to consider:

Carlos Santana, PIT – 1B, Roster 5.77%

Harold Castro, COL – 1B/2B/SS/3B, Roster 2.24%

Garrett Cooper, MIA – 1B, Roster 23.08%

J.D. Davis, SFG – 1B/3B, Roster 38.78%

–

Aaron Ashby, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 47.12%

The young lefty just couldn’t get his shoulder right in Spring Training after seemingly giving it every attempt. It was announced last week that Ashby will likely miss the full 2023 season and Ottoneu managers unwilling to keep him in the IL spot for the whole year have made cuts. For those in re-build mode this season, Ashby may be a nice hold target but don’t expect that it will be a quick turnaround. Shoulder injuries can be so tricky to get right. Ashby is now rostered in 55.45%, so the majority has chosen to keep him on the roster.

Ken Waldichuk, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 27.56%

Two stinkers and managers are done:

In points leagues, those home runs did serious points damage and in roto-leagues, the hit to ratio stats must be painful. Waldichuk put the ball in the zone too often across his two starts (46.7% vs. MLB 2022 SP Average, 41.6%) and he relied on his fastball too much throwing it 58.1% of the time. While many managers must be hurt deeply by these two starts, I don’t know if it’s fair to make a cut after two bad starts. Waldichuk is the second listed prospect on THE BOARD for Oakland and 85th overall in the league. There’s still a lot of talent and potential and he’s worth stashing and sitting.

Jared Shuster, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 23.08%

Similar to Waldichuk, Shuster is being dropped after a rough couple of starts:

While you could chalk it up to BABIP bad luck, the walks and lack of strikeouts are an issue. Shuster was optioned to AAA and will work on a few things in the minors, but should be back up eventually this season. He was a first-round pick for the Braves in 2020 and was the number-one ranked prospect in the organization as of last year. He’s a pitcher to stash for sure.

Cold Performers

Javier Báez, 33 AB, 2 BB, 4 H, -0.51 P/G

Baez’s K% is down from his career average and his BB% is up from his career average and his BABIP is at a career-low .154. I realize it’s too soon to be making comparisons between the 2023 season and a player’s career, but it is something to note. He’s already hit a ball over 100 MPH but he’s been putting the ball on the ground (GB%) 65.1% of the time. Before you get all “change of approach and bad luck!?” on me, note that his O-Swing% currently sits at 50.6%, which would indicate business as usual. I think what we are seeing here is simply a small sample of Javier Baez and while he will get the bat going eventually, he’s starting the year out cold. He’ll likely hit 20 home runs with a batting average below .250 and this is just a snapshot of that season.

Josh Bell, 35 AB, 8 BB, 3 H, 0.33 P/G

Bell is taking his walks (18.2%), but he’s also striking out a lot (27.3%). Bell has been swinging outside of the zone more often and making contact outside of the zone less often compared to his career numbers. Similar to Baez, he’s already smoked a ball at 108.5 MPH but his average launch angle thus far in 2023 is a sad -6.2. His career average launch angle is 8.4. One thing to note is that Bell has seen a relatively high percentage of breaking and offspeed pitches so far this season at 47.5%. It could be pressing, it could be cold weather and it could be a small sample, but Bell is slumpi–, ok don’t call it a slump. Bell is struggling to get his bat going to start the year.

Carlos Correa, 33 AB, 3 BB, 6 H, 1.93 P/G

With such a small sample of at-bats, it’s difficult to not sound like a broken record when analyzing slow starters. But, Correa already has a ball hit 112.0 MPH, his average launch angle is 24.3 degrees, he is hitting the ball hard 39.1% of the time and his xBA, xSLG, xwOBA are all higher than his actuals. His Z-Swing% and Z-Contact% are lower than his average and he’s taking called strikes at a higher rate than usual at 22.1% (18.4% career). Perhaps he is working on a more patient approach to start out the year as he works to get back into the rhythm of game action after a strange and roller-coaster offseason. All peripherals point to Correa righting the ship.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Obvious favorable schedules include the Astros, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Rangers, and Orioles. There are also a handful of teams who are either playing tough opponents in pitcher friendly ballparks or against weaker teams in smaller venues; the A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Red Sox, and White Sox fall into this camp.

Bad matchups include the Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, and Tigers.

Highlighted matchups:

The series between the Orioles and A’s features three different recommendations. Kyle Gibson has thrown two decent starts so far this year with an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings. He introduced a sweeper late last year and it’s been featured pretty heavily in his pitch mix so far this season. Dean Kremer is a bit more of a risk, even with the weak opponent. He’s had spurts of success, particularly last year, and his first two opponents this season were pretty tough — the Red Sox and Yankees — but he’s also introduced a sweeper into his repertoire.

For Oakland, JP Sears is a repeat recommendation and Kyle Muller would have been but his ownership rate crossed over the 50% threshold this week. Sears struggled a bit in his first start against the Guardians, throwing 4.2 innings with eight hits allowed, one walk, and five strikeouts. Adam Oller is also lined up to start during this series and you’d have to take a pretty big leap of faith to consider starting him.

José Suarez and Matt Strahm fall into that camp of matchups in a dangerous ballpark against a weak team. The former ran into some trouble against the Mariners in his first start of the season but the Nationals pose a much weaker threat. Strahm threw four scoreless innings against the Yankees during his spot start on Tuesday. The lack of bulk is a concern as is the hard contact that went unrewarded in New York.

Bryce Elder was phenomenal in his spot start for the Braves on Wednesday, holding the Cardinals scoreless over six innings with six strikeouts. Atlanta’s rotation is a bit of a mess with two starters on the IL and Elder, Jared Shuster, and Dylan Dodd battling over who will get to stick in the big leagues once everyone gets healthy. Dodd and Elder certainly look more viable as major league starters and the latter has the benefit of a nice matchup early next week.

Recap: April 3–6

After a good start during the first weekend of the season, my recommendations last week were pretty brutal. I count two wins — Muller and Grove — with seven ugly losses including a ghastly -24.1 points from Plesac against the A’s and -22.1 points from Crawford against the Pirates. Ouch. I’m not not sure there are any solid lessons to be taken away from this group of really bad performances. I liked the matchups on paper, but sometimes pitchers throw stinkers against weak teams and you just have to roll with the punches.

The majority of MLB starting pitchers have still made just one start, but in your Ottoneu leagues (actually, in all your leagues), managers are making decisions about who to speculate on. Is that first great start a sign of the next Kyle Wright breakout? Or another Kyle Gibson (9.51 P/IP in his first start; 3.35 the rest of the way)? With just one start, it is hard to know who you can trust, but if you wait until you are sure, someone else will have grabbed these arms already. Who should you bid on and who should you pass?

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Let’s get into it.

Upcoming Schedule:

Favorable schedules include the Astros, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Rays, Red Sox, Royals, and White Sox. You may be able to get away with playing starters from the A’s, Pirates, and Yankees since they’re playing tougher opponents in safer environments.

Lots more teams to avoid this weekend, including the Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Reds, Rockies, and Twins.

Highlighted matchups:

It’s a pretty light slate of recommendations this weekend with so many teams playing tough matchups or in poor environments. Nick Pivetta shows up for the second week in a row. Monitor his first start of the season against the Pirates today to make sure the increased velocity on his fastball carries over from spring training.

There are two starters who could be nice pickups in that Giants-Royals series, one for each team. Anthony DeSclafani started on Monday and held the White Sox scoreless over six innings while striking out four. He was an effective starter back in 2021 but injuries limited him to just five starts last year. If he’s fully healthy, he could be a sneaky addition with an excellent home ballpark. Brad Keller made his first start of the season on Sunday against the Twins and looked okay. He only lasted 4.2 innings, walked four, and struck out six. He introduced two new breaking balls to his repertoire this spring, though the command issues could be an issue as he figures out how to locate them properly.

Mike Clevinger handled the Astros capably on Sunday, throwing five shutout innings with eight strikeouts. He limited his pitch mix to just his fastball and slider and the latter generated a 44% whiff rate. That breaking ball lost a ton of effectiveness last year and it’s a big reason why he struggled so much in San Diego. He’s got a nice matchup against the Pirates in Pittsburgh to continue building off that early success.

Bailey Falter is a bit more of a risk since Citizen’s Bank Park is a very hitter friendly venue. The Reds offense isn’t good but the combination of opponent and ballpark still isn’t ideal. Falter threw 5.1 innings in his first start of the year, holding the Rangers to two runs on seven hits, striking out three.

Recap: March 30–April 2

As a way to keep myself accountable and just because I’m curious, I’ll be showing the results of my recommendations throughout the season.

Civale, Muller, Lugo, and Brito were pretty clear wins while Turnbull, Wacha, and Gonzales big losses. Looking back, it was probably too early to recommend Turnbull before he had even made a regular season start after his injury. Since these recommendations ran a week ago, Civale has cleared the 50% owned mark which is probably warranted. His stuff is pretty good and he was the recipient of some pretty bad luck last year. It was surprising to see seven strong innings from Lugo in his return to the rotation after spending so much of his career in the bullpen. If he continues to provide that kind of bulk with solid ratios, he needs to be owned in a lot more leagues.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either me or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s an annual tradition to sit down to write this and feel like every prediction is either too bold or not bold enough, at which point I adjust them all and then they flip – the “too bolds” becoming too tepid and vice versa. This year I am just sticking to my initial predictions and living with the consequences. So enjoy my ten bold predictions – and feel free to share more in the comments!

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