I was looking forward to this list and it turned out to be pretty uninspiring. Even while merging in the utility-only bats like Shohei Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna, this group isn’t as exciting as 1B used to be. For years it felt like a necessity to have two 1B to fill 1B and Util, because those were the biggest boppers. It doesn’t feel as true today.

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Chad and I tackled the two largest position groups to start off these rankings, so naturally, we’re starting off this week with the smallest and most straight forward: catcher.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Catcher is the awkward step-child of your fantasy roster — you have to invite them to the family reunion but no one is really excited to see them once they’re there. If you’re able to roster one of the top options, you’re probably pretty happy with their production; if you’re not willing to commit that much budget space to the position, there are plenty of cheap options to find if you wait.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

With catcher being such a unique position where your catcher may only play in two-thirds of his team’s games in any given week, regular playing time is at a premium. So when a player is eligible at catcher in fantasy, but is regularly playing other positions like first base or designated hitter, and therefore getting more playing time than if he was stuck behind the plate, it’s a slight competitive advantage over other players at the position. That’s the main reason why I have Willson Contreras and Perez ranked a tier higher than Chad. I’m willing to pay that premium to get their level of production in my lineup without having to worry about a replacement level catcher to make up the ~30–40 games my primary catcher will miss.

In his first full season as the Cardinals backstop, Herrera impressed with a .351 wOBA and excellent batted ball peripherals to back up that performance. He’s projected to start the season in a timeshare with Pedro Pagés, but I’m willing to bet that his bat will quickly prove that he’s the superior option and will wind up the primary catcher by midseason.

After a promising rookie campaign in 2023, Alvarez followed it up with a weird season in ‘24. His wOBA was exactly the same but his power output fell pretty significantly and his BABIP increased by a nice 69 points. The root causes were a jump in his groundball rate by more than eight points and a barrel rate that was nearly cut in half. Even though his overall production stayed stable, the shape of it is a bit concerning and has me worried about his potential ceiling.

From the giant lists covering OF and MI to one of the shorter and least interesting lists – catcher. Last year, I was pretty excited about the catcher position and this year, I am not. In the intro to my rankings last year, I called out a number of young catchers that were emerging or ready to break out that left me feeling confident I could find catcher production. That didn’t so much work out.

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Lucas kicked off our final position group as we look at our difficult keep or cut decisions ahead of the keeper deadline. Here are four starting pitchers on my keep/cut bubble.

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Aaron Nola, SP
Salary: $34
Average Salary: $33
2024 P/G: 4.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.39

2024 was the second consecutive season in which Aaron Nola’s FIP approached four. It’s not hard to see why; after a three-year stretch with a strikeout rate of 30% and a HR/FB rate of 12.5% from 2020-22, Nola has seen both of those metrics deteriorate pretty significantly. His 24% strikeout rate last year was the lowest that metrics has been since his rookie season back in 2015, and while he’s always struggled a bit with a home run problem, that issue has been exacerbated over the last two years.

The good news is that his trademark curveball is still a fantastically effective weapon and his four-seamer plays incredibly well off that breaking ball. The bad news is that his changeup and cutter both lost a ton of effectiveness in 2024, giving him fewer options to attack batters with. Until those other secondary offering regain their bite, I’m not sure he has the same kind of ceiling that we saw in 2022 when he posted a 2.58 FIP.

What Nola does have going for him is a steady track record of solid production while also making more than 30 starts in six straight seasons (ignoring the pandemic shortened season). That kind of bulk production certainly has value but if you’re expecting a front-line starter and paying those kinds of prices to roster him, I’m afraid you’re going to be sorely disappointed. It’s also worth mentioning that Nola is a far better pitcher in 5×5 or 4×4 formats since his high home run rates really hurt him in Ottoneu points leagues.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting at $34 and I’d expect to see a ton of shares of Nola cut across the Ottoneu universe as players realize he’s just not the ace that his $33 average salary assumes he is anymore. I’m expecting a bit of a rebound — and the projections agree to a certain extent — but I wouldn’t pay more than $15 to keep him on my roster at this point.

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George Kirby, SP
Salary: $34, $19, $18
Average Salary: $19
2024 P/G: 4.92
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.72

I’m really conflicted about what to do with George Kirby. He’s one of my favorite pitchers to watch because he’s an absolute surgeon with his deep repertoire of outstanding pitches. Unfortunately, that precise command seems to be the cause of a lot of the issues that he’s had trouble overcoming during his first three seasons in the big leagues. Because he locates his pitches in the zone so frequently, batters can more easily identify out-of-the-zone pitches when he’s seeking a whiff. Despite running an elite 29.1% whiff rate on his four-seamer, batters have learned to sit on that pitch and regularly punish it after spitting on his secondary offerings.

This tension between maintaining an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio and limiting the hard contact he allows doesn’t have an easy answer either. He’s going to have to figure out how to maximize his secondary offerings while working on a less predictable approach to give batters some pause when they’re facing him. That might mean a few more walks over the course of the season, but if the result is more strikeouts and fewer balls in play, Kirby will likely continue to thrive. If he doesn’t make the necessary adjustments, then the depressed projection might be more accurate than we’d like.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting at $34 (or desperately trying to find a trade partner who really believes in Kirby), but keeping at $18 and $19. That’s pretty close to his current ceiling, but those adjustments could obviously break things wide open and that’s what you’re hoping for if you’re keeping him in the mid-$20s.

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Taj Bradley, SP
Salary: $10
Average Salary: $8
2024 P/G: 4.29
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.42

Taj Bradley started off last year brilliantly; through his first 14 starts, he had posted a 2.43 ERA and a 3.41 FIP behind a fantastic 30% strikeout rate. He fell apart in August and September and ended the season with an ERA and FIP both above four. It was just his second taste of the big leagues and many of his underlying metrics look promising, but there are still big questions about his ability to leverage those skills into a complete package.

All three of his secondary offerings returned a whiff rate over 30% last year. There are just a handful of pitchers who can say the same thing and all of them who can are among the best pitchers in baseball. Bradley’s downfall is his fastball. It’s got good physical characteristics — his 129 Stuff+ on his heater is outstanding — but batters don’t seem phased by it. Its whiff rate is decent, but when the pitch gets put in play, it gets absolutely pounded to the tune of a .391 xwOBA and a .500 slugging percentage against. Since he doesn’t have precise command of his repertoire, too many of his fastballs get left over the heart of the plate where they’re absolutely crushed.

The nasty secondary offerings give me hope that he’ll figure things out but I can’t ignore the very real contact issues he’s faced that have led to far too many home runs. His start to last year gives us a pretty good glimpse of what could be if things go right, but his second half is the red flag that warns us not to pay for that ceiling yet.

Keep or cut?

I honestly could go either way on keeping at $10 and so the decision likely comes down to team context and how my budget is shaping up. That double digit salary is the absolute highest I’d want to roster him for at this point.

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Bowden Francis, SP
Salary: $5, $7
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.46
Projected 2025 P/G: 3.68

Across his final nine starts of the season, Bowden Francis was nearly unhittable, producing a 1.53 ERA while striking out 56 in 59 innings. Those sterling results hid a lackluster 3.42 FIP and 3.75 xFIP during that stretch. Everyone is pointing to the splitter he added to his repertoire last year as the meaningful difference maker but I’d like to point out that he also increased the usage of his slider in August and September and that pitch returned a whiff rate over 50% during those two hot months.

Of course, the projection systems aren’t buying into that two-month stretch yet. They see a pretty steep drop off from what he accomplished in 2024, backed up by his advanced age and long minor league track record. An age-28 breakout isn’t unheard of but it’s pretty rare and it’s unlikely an indicator of a major talent change.

Keep or cut?

At $5, I’m interested in seeing if he really has made a tweak to his slider to unlock that pitch as a true swing-and-miss weapon. At $7, he has too many warts and question marks to keep.

After starting off with the largest position group last week, Chad and I are back with tiered Ottoneu rankings for the second largest position group: the two middle infield positions.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

The two middle infield positions are really interesting beasts to tackle. They’re both extremely top heavy with some of the best players in the game populating the top of these ranks. There’s a very steep cliff down from the top to the middle class and then the positions get really deep in the bargain bin section. You’re very likely to find a replacement level MI on the waiver wire if you look hard enough, which is important if you didn’t secure one or two of those top options on your roster. Because these positions are so top heavy, I think I’m willing to invest a little more budget to ensure I get one of the top options which is reflected in my rankings being a little higher than Chad’s pretty much across the board.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

There are exactly six players with a points per game played projection higher than Witt and he’s younger than all of them. If I was starting a brand-new Ottoneu league today, Witt might be my number one target to build around. You’re going to pay a premium to get Betts’s positional flexibility, but it might be worth it to roster one of the best players in baseball and be able to line him up wherever you want. I went back and forth on ranking Betts and Witt number one, but ultimately decided on Witt’s youth as the separator.

I have Marte a tier higher than Chad because he’s clearly the top 2B in baseball now (if you’re playing Betts at shortstop) and all of his contact quality peripherals took a huge jump in 2024. This isn’t a repeat of his 2019 “breakout” with the rabbit ball; this is legit improvement across every significant batted ball metric fueling a dramatic increase in production.

This second group of middle infielders all have their warts, though they’re still clearly a step above the pack. Whether it’s age (Altuve, Semien), injury (McLain, Correa), or inconsistent production (De Le Cruz, Cruz), it’s a lot harder to predict what you’re going to get from this cohort.

Turner is a tricky one to peg. He had the hiccup in 2023 in his first season in Philadelphia and then rebounded a bit in ‘24 thanks to a 20 point increase in his BABIP. Worryingly, his power output fell quite a bit and his contact quality wasn’t as sterling as it’s been in the past. The track record speaks for itself, but he just hasn’t been the same player as before since joining the Phillies.

I was really tempted to put Edwards in a higher tier because his projection is so rosy. So much of his success in 2024 was BABIP fueled, but he rode high BABIPs to great success as a minor leaguer. He’s got a great knack for squaring the ball up, even if he doesn’t have much oomph behind his swings, plus he’s got a great eye at the plate. It’s a volatile profile, but I think there’s value here.

Jordan Westburg has a weirdly low projection but his contact quality metrics are all solid. You’d obviously like to see a little higher walk rate from him, but he’s aggressive enough in the right counts to make the approach work. I originally had him in a tier lower, but I think his talent will push him into this higher tier once he gets a full season in the majors.

Finally! Some guys I’m lower on than Chad! Torres gave back all the gains he made with his strikeout rate in 2023 and posted a disappointing final season in the Bronx. Now he’s in Detroit and I really don’t like that park fit. Tovar has the ideal park fit but his hyper aggressive approach is going to produce some really low slumps to go along with his altitude fueled production. I really like the improvements Garcia has made over the last few years, but I just don’t see the ceiling to pay double digits for him right now.

My perspective on prospects is pretty starkly shown in my ranking of Jackson Holliday. Yes, he has a very high ceiling and he only just turned old enough to drink last month, but his debut season in the big leagues was a disaster all around. There were a few encouraging things under the hood, but he really needs to prove it before I’m comfortable investing a significant portion of my budget on rostering him. Could I regret that stance in a few years when he’s established himself as a superstar? Maybe.

This list might have actually been harder than the outfield list, if only because it gets so ugly towards the bottom. Middle Infield is always odd because it is both where some of the absolute best players play and because it is a couple of spots that can be relatively shallow and feature a bunch of glove-first dudes. But there are some interesting patterns at play this year.

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Do they have offerings for left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters? Do they throw their best pitches for strikes? What’s the Stuff+ measurements on those “best” pitches? Do they throw with high velocity? Do they have a good fastball? Do they elevate that fastball? How long are their arms, how long are their legs, how big are their fingers? Are their mechanics efficient? Repeatable? Normal? When did they last feel a tinge in their forearms? Have they ever been demoted to AAA? These are all good questions to ask when analyzing pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t think I am breaking new ground by suggesting that platoon bats are useful for Ottoneu. The combination of daily lineups (and most Ottoneu leagues are daily, though not all) and deep rosters makes it possible to roster players you know you can’t start daily, but who can still provide value.

It’s pretty easy to look at a player’s platoon splits but platoon splits don’t tell the whole story. Because you aren’t starting a player for his PA vs. RHP or LHP. You are putting a guy into your lineup or on your bench based on who the opposing starting pitcher is, and a lot can happen after that.

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After a year hiatus, I’ll be presenting my Ottoneu tiered positional rankings alongside Chad. If you’re wondering about the format and methodology, you can find all of that in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

In Ottoneu, you’re afforded five starting spots for your outfielders. That creates a situation where the position is simultaneously deep and shallow. The top of the position is filled with superstars but you’ll be able to find solid production all the way down into the middle tiers. There does seem to be a pretty significant drop off once you get 40 deep which means you’ll likely be filling out the last couple of spots in your outfield with flawed players. Generally, if you’re able to fill at least three of your OF spots with full-time, consistent contributors, you can grab a handful of low cost players to mix and match and platoon based on matchups.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

You can’t go wrong with either of these guys at the top of the rankings. Chad has Judge in a tier all on his own above Soto but I think they’re closer in value simply based on Soto’s age. On that basis alone, you could make an argument that Soto should be ranked first — I won’t make that argument, but you could.

I understand the trepidation behind Chad ranking Acuña lower in his rankings, but the projections absolutely believe that he’ll return from his knee injury and simply continue producing like one of the best players in baseball. It probably won’t be as simple as that, but the talent is undeniable and he’s still just 27 years old.

I also have Tucker and Tatis Jr. swapped in the rankings and that’s mostly due to the wide gap in the projections between the two. There’s a pretty significant cliff between the two of them, and all things considered, I’d rather have Tucker around $50 than Tatis Jr. at the same price.

Although they’re in the same tier as Chad, I’ve ranked that trio of young outfielders a little lower ordinally. Both Carroll and Rodríguez struggled to some degree in 2024 and Chourio only just got his first taste of the big leagues last year. The sky’s the limit for all three of them, but I think you’re going to suffer though some growing pains with all of them before they really hit their ceiling.

I originally had Trout in the tier above in my first draft of these rankings but I think I agree with Chad; we really just don’t know what to expect from him anymore and the reality is that you’re probably paying for a partial season and will be pleasantly surprised if he can stay healthy for 150 games.

I also have Rooker a tier above Chad though ordinally ranked the same. I believe in the changes he’s made to his plate approach last year and the contact quality is undeniable. Plus, he’ll be playing in a much friendlier home ballpark in Sacramento.

This is a really interesting tier because you’ll find stable veterans who will consistently produce in Yelich, Suzuki, and Reynolds alongside youngsters who broke out last year in Duran, Greene, Merrill. Do you want that stability or would you rather dream on a guy who could grow? I think most Ottoneu players would say the latter, which means the former is a little undervalued, especially for teams who need just a piece or two to push for a championship.

I like Duran a bit more than Chad and a lot more than the projections. Duran improved his barrel rate by nearly four points while simultaneously improving his plate discipline in his breakout 2024 season. Steamer sees a pretty significant step back from that level of production but I believe in the changes and think he can replicate it this season.

For Soler and Bellinger, I think their new home ballparks will give them both a boost into a higher tier.

Lee and Buxton both have great projections but their health is a huge question mark. If you’re okay with that risk, they could both be really solid players for your team, except they may only be available for half a season.

Friedl is probably the biggest disagreement between me and Chad’s rankings. I get that all of Friedl’s underlying batted ball metrics look pretty terrible, but his plate approach is stellar and I think there’s a bit of Isaac Paredes in him. His pull rate was over 48% in 2024 and I think he’s selective enough to do damage on his pulled contact while still slapping singles around the field. The biggest reason his production fell last year was because his BABIP cratered to .229; in 2023 when he posted a 115 wRC+, his BABIP was just a hair above league average at .308. He also doesn’t have a traditional platoon split; rather, he has a reverse split where he’s been able to thrive against left-handed pitching by putting the ball in play while reserving all of his pulled and elevated contact against right-handed pitching.

I think the other big difference between me and Chad — and this is going to be true for every position — is that I just don’t value prospects all that highly. If I’m rostering a prospect, I want them to be nearly MLB-ready, have a clear path to playing time in the near future, and they need to have a high FV grade. Rostering a 50 FV prospect who is two to three years away from even sniffing the majors just doesn’t feel like good value to me. By the time they’re established and producing for your fantasy team, their salary is likely to be $5-$7 higher than what you’re rostering them for currently. That’s why there’s that group of prospects at the tail end of my $0-$1 tier who are all ranked higher by Chad.

I typically start with catcher and work my way around the infield, but I went straight to the outfield grass this year. Is it because OF is the most important position? Or because I have deep thoughts about OF this year? No, it is because it covers the most players which makes it the most painful to write notes for, and I wanted to be done with it.

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