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Archive for Ottoneu

Ottoneu Hot Right Now: August 2nd, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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30 Days Until the Ottoneu Deadline

We have reached the MLB trade deadline which means we are just 30 days out from the Ottoneu trade deadline. I would say that means it is time to decide if you are buying or selling, but you should have done that already. I would say it is time to start making trades, but you have probably done that, as well. So here are the ___ things I am trying to do this month, ahead of the deadline.

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Ottoneu Cold Right Now: July 31, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

  1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
  2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 31–August 6

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 31–August 6
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SFG (192) @MIN (72) Zac Gallen (x2) Ryne Nelson (@SFG), Merrill Kelly 켈리 Tommy Henry, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson (@MIN)
ATL LAA (54) @CHC (68) Spencer Strider Max Fried (?), Bryce Elder, Charlie Morton Yonny Chirinos
BAL @TOR (56) NYM (135) Kyle Bradish (vNYM) Kyle Gibson (x2), Kyle Bradish (@TOR), Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer
BOS @SEA (114) TOR (56) Brayan Bello (@SEA) James Paxton, Brayan Bello (vTOR) Chris Murphy, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta
CHC CIN (121) ATL (30) Marcus Stroman (vCIN), Justin Steele (vCIN) Marcus Stroman (vATL), Justin Steele (vATL) Drew Smyly, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks
CHW @TEX (33) @CLE (100) Lance Lynn (x2), Dylan Cease Mike Clevinger, Michael Kopech Touki Toussaint
CIN @CHC (68) WSN (65) Andrew Abbott (x2) Ben Lively 라이블리 (x2), Graham Ashcraft Brandon Williamson, Luke Weaver
CLE @HOU (96) CHW (145) Logan Allen, Aaron Civale, Gavin Williams (vCHW) Gavin Williams (@HOU), Tanner Bibee Peyton Battenfield
COL SDP (63) @STL (75) Kyle Freeland Austin Gomber (x2), Peter Lambert, Chase Anderson, Chris Flexen 플렉센
DET @PIT (159) TBR (126) Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen, Tarik Skubal Reese Olson Matt Manning
HOU CLE (98) @NYY (117) Framber Valdez (x2) Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown J.P. France (x2), José Urquidy (?), Brandon Bielak
KCR NYM (149) @PHI (84) Zack Greinke (vNYM) Alec Marsh, Brady Singer, Zack Greinke (@PHI) Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough
LAA @ATL (72) SEA (82) Lucas Giolito, Reid Detmers Shohei Ohtani Griffin Canning (x2), Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson
LAD OAK (112) @SDP (93) Julio Urías (vOAK), Tony Gonsolin, Bobby Miller Emmet Sheehan, Julio Urías (@SDP) Michael Grove
MIA PHI (133) @TEX (33) Edward Cabrera (vPHI), Sandy Alcantara (x2), Braxton Garrett, Johnny Cueto, Jesús Luzardo Edward Cabrera (@TEX)
MIL @WSN (84) PIT (121) Corbin Burnes (x2), Freddy Peralta (x2) Adrian Houser, Julio Teheran Colin Rea
MIN @STL (75) ARI (77) Pablo López (x2), Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda Joe Ryan
NYM @KCR (170) @BAL (131) José Quintana (@KCR), Kodai Senga, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander Carlos Carrasco, José Quintana (@BAL)
NYY TBR (86) HOU (68) Gerrit Cole Domingo Germán (x2), Carlos Rodón Clarke Schmidt, Luis Severino
OAK @LAD (33) SFG (163) Paul Blackburn Ken Waldichuk, Hogan Harris, JP Sears, Luis Medina
PHI @MIA (166) KCR (124) Taijuan Walker (x2), Ranger Suárez (x2), Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez
PIT DET (168) @MIL (103) Johan Oviedo (x2), Mitch Keller Rich Hill Quinn Priester, Osvaldo Bido
SDP @COL (56) LAD (61) Yu Darvish, Blake Snell Joe Musgrove Seth Lugo (x2), Ryan Weathers
SEA BOS (82) @LAA (35) George Kirby (x2), Bryce Miller (vBOS), Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller (@LAA)
SFG ARI (100) @OAK (173) Alex Cobb (x2), Logan Webb Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Ross Stripling
STL MIN (110) COL (93) Jordan Montgomery Jack Flaherty (x2), Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz Adam Wainwright
TBR @NYY (117) @DET (178) Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Tyler Glasnow Zach Eflin
TEX CHW (145) MIA (138) Jon Gray (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning Martín Pérez
TOR BAL (93) @BOS (42) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt (x2), Yusei Kikuchi, José Berríos Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 (?), Alek Manoah
WSN MIL (121) @CIN (84) Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Patrick Corbin, Trevor Williams

A few general schedule notes first:

  • The trade deadline is on Tuesday next week which means some of these rotations might look very different by Wednesday. Keep an eye on the probable matchups early in the week while players get moved around; the recommendations I made above assume that everyone sticks with their original team which obviously won’t happen. When in doubt, use the matchup rating for the series to determine whether or not to start a pitcher on his new team if they’re traded midweek. The rotations for each team should be settled by the weekend which means next week’s recommendations should be a bit more straightforward.
  • The impending returns of Hyun Jin Ryu, Max Fried, Nestor Cortes, and José Urquidy will also shake up the rotations on their respective teams. Generally, I recommend waiting a start or two before inserting a starter back into your lineup after he returns from a major injury like these four are.
  • As far as the actual schedules go, it looks like the Rangers and Mets both get a pair of easier matchups next week. Texas plays at home against two weaker offenses while the Mets travel to two pitcher friendly ballparks.
  • The Braves, Padres, and Reds get a tough slate of opponents next week. Cincinnati and Atlanta both travel to Chicago to face the red hot Cubs and they’ve got tough home matchups in their other series next week too. San Diego travels to Colorado to start next week and then returns home to face the Dodgers over the weekend.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Zac Gallen
  • Framber Valdez
  • Pablo López
  • George Kirby
  • Corbin Burnes
  • Freddy Peralta
  • Alex Cobb
  • Jon Gray
  • Johan Oviedo
  • Brayan Bello
  • Taijuan Walker
  • Ranger Suárez
  • Marcus Stroman
  • José Quintana

Prospects to Look at in Ottoneu

We’re still a month from the Ottoneu trade deadline, but trades aren’t the only way for rebuilders to, well, rebuild. There are hundreds of prospects across baseball and only a small handful are regularly rostered in Ottoneu leagues, which means you can often find interesting names sitting out there as free agents. Today I am going to look at some prospects I like who are available in at least half of Ottoneu leagues.

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Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 26th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Anatomy of a Ottoneu Dynasty Rebuild: Part 7, Picking Up the Recycling

Ottoneu teams get a whole extra month to complete trades after the official MLB trade deadline which means players get a little longer to evaluate their rosters before really committing to going for a championship or not. If you haven’t been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to preparing to sell. I even detailed the thought process behind a huge blockbuster trade. For rebuilding teams, this is still one of the most exciting periods of the season, not just because of the trade activity, but because of the waiver wire activity too.

On July 13, an owner in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams cut Mike Trout from his roster. That was about a week after Trout was placed on the IL with a fractured hamate bone in his hand, sidelining him for 4-8 weeks. That set off a chain reaction of moves that I’d like to discuss today.

Trout’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for this Ottoneu player; his team was in seventh place, well out of contention and stuck looking towards the future. I’m sure Trout would have been the centerpiece of a big trade at some point this summer as he looked to recoup any value from the superstar to bolster his roster for the years to come. Instead, he looked at the calculus of Trout’s injury timeline and the upcoming trade deadline and decided to simply cut his losses. Trout’s salary was $70 and no one claimed him on waivers at that price. An auction for him was started a day after he became a free agent and he wound up getting added for $55 by the fifth place team with an outside shot at making a run down the stretch. If Trout returns on the early end of his timeline, he’ll likely give that roster a boost right when it would be needed most.

Adding a $55 player during the draft is tough enough to fit into the $400 budget Ottoneu teams are afforded; it’s even tougher during the season. The owner who picked up Trout wound up cutting Carlos Correa ($40), Seiya Suzuki ($27), and Freddy Peralta ($16). This was when my eyes lit up. I wasn’t about to try and fit Trout onto my roster but all three of those cuts were interesting at the right price. Unfortunately, I did something silly; I mistakenly thought Peralta would go unclaimed on waivers and I’d be able to start an auction for him in a few days. I figured his struggles early this season would have driven down his value below his $16 price tag and I’d be able to win an auction at less than that salary. Instead, three other teams claimed him with the team that originally rostered Trout winning the claim.

Auctions were started for Correa and Suzuki pretty quickly and I entered my maximum bids for each of them. I had a bit of cap space and a handful of higher priced players I could cut to create some more. But I wasn’t looking to add either of those players to help my team this year, I wanted them at a reasonable price to keep for next year. That certainly affected the amount I was willing to bid on them. I bid $28 for Carlos Correa, second behind the winning team bid of $33. Correa’s struggles and questionable health this year don’t necessarily make him a slam dunk keeper for next year and $30 was where I drew the line. It was the same story for Suzuki; I bid $16 because of health and performance concerns and the winning bid was $22. The team who won Suzuki is currently in fourth place and could afford to allocate a few more resources in the hopes that Suzuki could contribute to his club this year.

That second round of auctions set off another domino effect and Shane Bieber ($36) and Teoscar Hernández ($21) were suddenly on the waiver wire as cuts. I liked both of these guys too, even though Bieber was on the IL with an elbow issue. If he was able to avoid surgery, he could be a nice piece for next year at the right salary. Auctions were started for both players and I wound up winning both for $20 and $14, respectively.

The owner who originally cut Trout came out of all this with Peralta and Correa on his roster. That’s not a bad swap and it looks even better considering he’s saving about $9 on Correa’s salary if he chooses to keep him for next season. I’m sure this player knew that simply cutting Trout instead of hoping for a desperate trade in late August might create this kind of domino effect. He didn’t know which players would fall into his lap, but clearing Trout’s salary and getting a couple of potential keepers is a nice consolation.

For my part, I would have preferred to roster any of the guys from that first round of cuts. I do like my consolation prize in Bieber and Hernández, however. I originally rostered the latter at the start of the season and I like his value much better with a $16 salary rather than the $21 I had him at before. And $20 for Bieber could be a nice bargain if he can get past this elbow issue and come back next year healthy and fresh. This little exercise demonstrates why keeping some open salary cap to add players like this during the season is so important. Plenty of bargains can be found on the waiver wire as teams navigate the long season, and every once in a while, a team will cut a high priced player like Trout and set off a long chain reaction that shakes up multiple rosters.


Ottoneu Cold Right Now: July 24, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

  1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
  2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 24–30

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 24–30
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI STL (88) SEA (147) Zac Gallen, Ryne Nelson (vSEA) Ryne Nelson (vSTL), Merrill Kelly 켈리 Tommy Henry, Tyler Gilbert
ATL @BOS (39) MIL (125) Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder Charlie Morton, Max Fried (?), Michael Soroka
BAL @PHI (77) NYY (157) Tyler Wells Dean Kremer (x2), Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez
BOS ATL (70) @SFG (161) Brayan Bello, James Paxton Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta
CHC @CHW (129) @STL (18) Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jameson Taillon Drew Smyly
CHW CHC (57) CLE (68) Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito Michael Kopech, Lance Lynn Touki Toussaint (x2)
CIN @MIL (86) @LAD (18) Andrew Abbott Ben Lively 라이블리 Graham Ashcraft (x2) Brandon Williamson, Luke Weaver
CLE KCR (147) @CHW (129) Aaron Civale (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen Peyton Battenfield (x2)
COL @WSN (77) OAK (95) Austin Gomber Chris Flexen 플렉센 (?), Peter Lambert, Karl Kauffmann, Chase Anderson
DET LAA (73) @MIA (125) Eduardo Rodriguez (x2), Tarik Skubal, Michael Lorenzen (@MIA) Michael Lorenzen (vLAA), Reese Olson, Matt Manning
HOU TEX (54) TBR (84) Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown Brandon Bielak (x2), J.P. France
KCR @CLE (102) MIN (118) Ryan Yarbrough (x2), Zack Greinke, Alec Marsh, Brady Singer Jordan Lyles
LAA @DET (172) @TOR (66) Patrick Sandoval, Shohei Ohtani Griffin Canning, Chase Silseth, Reid Detmers Tyler Anderson
LAD TOR (59) CIN (86) Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan Michael Grove (x2)
MIA @TBR (120) DET (175) Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez (?), Jesús Luzardo Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara
MIL CIN (95) @ATL (82) Corbin Burnes Freddy Peralta Colin Rea (x2), Adrian Houser, Julio Teheran
MIN SEA (136) @KCR (175) Kenta Maeda (x2), Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober
NYM @NYY (127) WSN (95) Justin Verlander (x2), Max Scherzer José Quintana, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco
NYY NYM (79) @BAL (84) Gerrit Cole Domingo Germán, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt Luis Severino
OAK @SFG (161) @COL (70) Hogan Harris Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Paul Blackburn, Luis Medina
PHI BAL (18) @PIT (161) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez (@PIT) Cristopher Sánchez (vBAL), Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez
PIT @SDP (88) PHI (116) Johan Oviedo, Mitch Keller Quinn Priester (x2), Rich Hill Osvaldo Bido
SDP PIT (156) TEX (70) Yu Darvish (vPIT), Blake Snell, Seth Lugo Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish (vTEX)
SEA @MIN (86) @ARI (107) Luis Castillo (x2), George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert Bryan Woo
SFG OAK (159) BOS (113) Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Logan Webb Anthony DeSclafani Ross Stripling (x2)
STL @ARI (107) CHC (52) Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery Dakota Hudson (x2), Steven Matz (x2)
TBR MIA (122) @HOU (116) Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Shane McClanahan Taj Bradley
TEX @HOU (116) @SDP (88) Nathan Eovaldi (x2) Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning Martín Pérez
TOR @LAD (18) LAA (25) José Berríos (x2), Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman Yusei Kikuchi, Alek Manoah
WSN COL (129) @NYM (125) Patrick Corbin (x2), Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore Trevor Williams (x2), Jake Irvin

A few general schedule notes first:

  • There are a bunch of teams who have two off days next week and will only play five games as a result: the A’s, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees. Since they won’t necessarily need a fifth starter, keep an eye on the probable pitchers listed on Sunday in case any of those teams decide to go with a four-man rotation and skip someone’s regular turn in the rotation.
  • The Tigers and Giants would have played only five games next week but they had a rainout rescheduled for Monday. That means San Francisco will play in Washington this weekend, in Detroit on Monday, and then fly home to start a series against the A’s on Tuesday.
  • The Twins easy schedule post-All-Star break continues next week with a pair of matchups against the Mariners (again) and the Royals. Every one of their starters have been pretty close to a must start all season long and you can just set them and forget them next week too.
  • The Blue Jays and White Sox get a pretty tough slate of games next week. Toronto gets the double Los Angeles experience with one series on the road (at the Dodgers) and one at home (versus the Angels). The Cubs and Guardians may not seem like tough opponents on paper, but both teams have been hitting particularly well recently and both series will be played in the home run friendly confines of Guaranteed Rate Field.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Justin Verlander
  • Luis Castillo
  • Eduardo Rodriguez
  • Nathan Eovaldi
  • Kenta Maeda
  • Aaron Civale

Should You Pay for Recent Draftees in Ottoneu?

In yesterday’s Hot Right Now, I noted that Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford are the two players with the most live auctions in Ottoneu leagues. I also gave only high-level thoughts on the two of them and then promised I would be back with more today. Today we will look more broadly at recent draftees and whether or not they have value in Ottoneu.

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