Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Just a few notes because I’m on vacation:

• The Rays get an easy homestand next week with the Rockies and Yankees in town. You could argue that the Astros have two easy matchups too with the Red Sox at home (Boston has been atrocious on the road) and then the Tigers on the road.
• After playing in Houston, the Red Sox return home to play the red hot Dodgers, giving them two tough matchups next week. The Giants also have a pair of challenging opponents next week in the Phillies and Braves.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Luis Castillo
• Clayton Kershaw
• Blake Snell
• Zack Wheeler
• Jordan Montgomery
• Bryce Elder
• Paul Blackburn

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Bryan Baker, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 13.74%

Baker’s demotion to AAA mostly seemed like a space-making move to allow Jack Flaherty a roster spot. Baker has been a solid reliever with a 10.93 K/9 and a very small 0.64 HR/9, but a high 5.14 BB/9. Even with that high walk rate (13.7% BB%) Baker’s xERA (3.24) is lower than his actual (3.64). From a pure fantasy production standpoint, however, Baker doesn’t add much to Ottoneu teams. He has recorded no saves and has blown three. He has four wins and 11 holds on the season. It’s highly likely that Baker will return to the O’s bullpen sometime this season and the only reason to add him to fantasy rosters would be for those looking to add wins and holds wherever they can find them.

Scott Barlow, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.46%

Barlow’s actual ERA as a Padre is 11.12 and his FIP is 5.91. That, in part, means that he has been getting somewhat unlucky with balls in play, though he still has given up eight hits, three walks, and a home run in his short stint in San Diego (5.2 IP). Regardless, it wasn’t good for your fantasy team had you been rostering him. If it’s any consolation his worst two appearances as a Padre where he recorded negative points in that format were against the Dodgers. He rebounded with positive points against the Mariners and the Diamondbacks. Either way, lots of fantasy managers are dropping the once-Royals closer because they figure he won’t be recording saves anymore. RosterResource seems to agree, for now, as he’s listed as a middle-reliever. He recorded a hold in his debut with the Padres, but not since.

Luis Severino, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –9.26%

Dan Szymborski recently published “The 2024 Projection Decliners: Pitchers” and Severino was listed as the number two starter. Here’s a snippet from his analysis of Severino:

Sure, the homers will come down, and it’s unlikely Severino will continue to see a BABIP this poor, but there’s no way to explain around a year-over-year loss of about a third of your strikeout rate when combined with a similar ballooning of your walks. This Severino just has too many balls connecting with bats, and it’s hard to get around that.

While some analysts have been relying on the home run rate coming down, Szymborski points out that there is much more than just bad luck happening here:

Even if you were to figure his ERA (8.06) and xERA (6.74) are off, you wouldn’t even want to roster the xERA. His swinging strike rate is down, but so is his overall K/9:

2019: 12.75 –> 2021: 12.00 –> 2022: 9.88 –> 2023: 7.92

Starling Marte, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.95%

It was recently reported that Marte won’t be back on the roster when eligible:

Starling Marte (right groin strain) isn't likely to come off the injured list when eligible on Wednesday, per Buck Showalter. Sounds like he may need a minor league rehab assignment, which will extend his absence even further.

Marte hasn't played since Aug. 5.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 13, 2023

Perhaps some fantasy managers are done waiting around and are in need of the roster spot. While Marte has been disappointing on the base paths this season with 18 stolen bases, that’s still a pretty great mark. Yes, he was projected by most to be in the high twenties and, by some, in the thirties, but injuries happen. His slash line on the year isn’t what it was last year, but it’s still rosterable at .248/.301/.324. Rest of season projections have him for three more home runs and around seven more stolen bases. His wOBA and SLG were declining somewhat before he went on the IL, but it could have been injury related.

If you’re in a position where you can afford to pick Marte up and you really need stolen bases, he’s not a bad option. Just keep an eye on his performance once he’s back on the field to make sure the injury issues aren’t holding him back.

Matt Manning, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 7.98%

It has probably been difficult to roster Manning in points formats as he’s given up a lot of home runs in single appearances resulting in three negative point games. But, he’s also hit two games where he’s brought in over 35 points. For the most part, his strike-out numbers are worse than the MLB average, yet his command metrics are better:

–

That plays ok in points formats, but not necessarily in standard roto formats. Manning is still only 25 years old and has a median salary only three dollars in Ottonue leagues. If I had him for three dollars or any amount less than that, I’d be keeping him, playing the matchups, and hoping that his player page “Prospect TLDR” eventually rings true:

We’re sticking to our guns regarding Manning’s FV despite a rocky rookie year, due largely to his athleticism and long-term body projection.

 

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 30 days.

Josh Rojas,  -0.22 P/G: Since moving to Seattle Rojas’ slash line has declined .158/.200/.211, though it is the result of only 20 plate appearances. In 2023 with the Diamondbacks, he lost a lot of playing time and recorded only 216 plate appearances. His slash line with the Diamondbacks in 2023 was .228/.292/.296, which is a far cry away from his 2022 .269/.349/.391. He has been batting in the eight and nine spot in the lineup and playing second base with the Mariners.

Austin Hays,  1.32 P/G: Hays’ first-half slash line was excellent (.314/.355/.498) but it has really come down in the second half (.182/.219/.253). A lot of it has to do with an increased ground ball rate (40.6% first half, 58.9% 2nd half) and a decreased BABIP (.389 first half, .236 second half). His 2022 slash line was .250/.306/.413 so we’re really seeing in-season regression to the mean.

Mitch Keller,  1.15 P/IP: Keller’s home run troubles continue to hurt his value in Ottoneu points leagues especially. In his last five starts (26.2 IP) Keller has given up six home runs and twenty earned runs while walking 10. Those are bad numbers. He did strike out 31, but two of those five starts resulted in negative point accumulation in Ottoneu points leagues.

Alex Cobb,  1.79 P/IP: Much like Keller, Cobb has been bit by the home run bug in his last five starts (26 IP) as he gave up seven home runs and 19 earned runs. He also struck out 19 in those starts, but three of the five games resulted in negative point totals.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• There are a number of teams who have a five-game schedule next week, including the Blue Jays, Cubs, Phillies, Reds, Twins, and White Sox. Those teams might use the two off days to skip a start or reorder their rotations so keep an eye on the scheduled starters next weekend. Pay attention to Philadelphia and Toronto in particular since both of those teams are currently using a six-man rotation, meaning one of their regular starters won’t have a start next week.
• The Twins look like the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week when they take on the Tigers and Pirates at home. The Brewers have the unenviable task of traveling to Los Angeles and Texas to face two of the toughest offenses in baseball. The Angels also have a rough schedule next week, continuing their grueling stretch of opponents with the Rangers and Rays. I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone on the Blue Jays or White Sox either.
• Even though the Rockies have two series at home next week, their matchup ratings look artificially mediocre rather than poor like you’d expect. That’s largely due to them playing on the road recently, bringing their last 14 day wOBA down. Even though the matchup rating for the Diamondbacks and White Sox looks okay, I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone at Coors Field anyway.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Max Fried
• Logan Gilbert
• Yu Darvish
• Max Scherzer
• Bobby Miller
• Miles Mikolas

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves are entering a particularly tough stretch of their schedule this weekend; they’re about to play 14 games in 13 days without an off day due to a doubleheader against the Mets next weekend. They’re getting Max Fried back from the IL today but they’ll likely need to call up a spot starter next weekend. Luckily both of their matchups next week look pretty easy on paper.
• The Mets have the benefit of an off day before that extra long weekend series against the Braves but both of their matchups look particularly tough next week. They’re also needing to restock their rotation after the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline.
• The Yankees and Rangers both have some pretty easy matchups next week, though they’ll all come on the road. New York travels to Chicago and Miami while Texas will play in both of the expansive ballparks in the Bay Area. The Red Sox host the Royals and the Tigers next week which both look like easier matchups too, though Kansas City has been playing particularly well recently.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Gerrit Cole
• Spencer Strider
• Pablo López
• Dylan Cease
• Julio Urías
• Zach Eflin
• Freddy Peralta
• Sonny Gray
• Dane Dunning
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Braxton Garrett
• Kutter Crawford

With the MLB trade deadline behind us and the dust still settling, it can be a bit tricky to sort out all the implications for every player moved in a trade this week. It becomes all the more difficult for relievers — both where they fit in the bullpen hierarchy on their new team and how their old team will handle the pecking order. This edition of the Ottonue Relief Pitcher Drip will be devoted to figuring some of those situations while also recommending some under-rostered pitchers who might find themselves in high leverage roles now.

The White Sox were one of the most aggressive sellers this season, trading away six members of their pitching staff including nearly every reliever who had earned high leverage work this year. Gone are Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo López, Keynan Middleton, and Joe Kelly. That means Gregory Santos is the most likely candidate to pick up save opportunities with Aaron Bummer a possibility as well. I covered Santos the last time this column ran in mid-July and his outlook hasn’t changed much since then. He’s still striking out a decent number of batters and his walk rate is still a pristine 5.0%.

The Royals shipped their closer Scott Barlow off to San Diego at the deadline which means Carlos Hernández will likely step in to handle the ninth inning duties. A failed starter with a hard, riding fastball and a nasty slider, he’s managed to hone the command issues that plagued him in longer outings. He’s cut his walk rate more than four points to just 7.4% this year while also pushing his strikeout rate north of 30%. That’s a definite recipe for success. Beyond Hernández, there really isn’t anyone else in Kansas City’s bullpen worth targeting.

In one of the bigger surprises this week, the Mariners traded their closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks. Seattle already had their closer of the future Andrés Muñoz working the eighth inning ahead of Sewald which makes him the obvious candidate to work the ninth inning now. Matt Brash is almost universally rostered in Ottoneu thanks to his outrageous stuff so the overlooked high leverage reliever in Seattle’s bullpen is almost certainly Justin Topa. He had struggled with a laundry list of injuries with the Brewers, accumulating just 17 appearances across his first three seasons in the big leagues. Finally healthy, he’s been a solid option in high leverage situations for the M’s this year. His sinker-slider combo doesn’t produce a ton of strikeouts but he limits walks and keeps the ball on the ground which is a profile that plays well in Ottoneu.

Joe Kelly isn’t gaining an opportunity to earn more high leverage work because relievers ahead of him on the depth chart were traded away. Instead, he was the guy traded away. He’s joining a Dodgers bullpen that’s had plenty of issues finding consistent performers this year. It isn’t immediately clear where he lands in the pecking order since he’s only appeared in a single game for Los Angeles, coming in during the sixth inning after Caleb Ferguson ran into trouble. His brand of effective wildness is well known by now, though his strikeout rate is now at a career-high 32.3%.

The Cardinals were the other big sellers at the deadline, trading away two relievers from their bullpen. With Ryan Helsley sidelined indefinitely and Jordan Hicks now in Toronto, the obvious choice to work the ninth inning should have been Giovanny Gallegos. Instead, the man who received the first save opportunity on Sunday was JoJo Romero who also worked the ninth inning in a non-save situation yesterday. This is a situation that definitely bears monitoring. Gallegos has been receiving high leverage work in the Cardinals bullpen for four years now so it’s possible they’re trying out different options in the ninth inning to evaluate what they have to work with moving forward. Romero was a highly regarded prospect in the Phillies organization at one point. Both his slider and changeup have whiff rates over 40%, giving him two plus weapons in his arsenal.

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

We have reached the MLB trade deadline which means we are just 30 days out from the Ottoneu trade deadline. I would say that means it is time to decide if you are buying or selling, but you should have done that already. I would say it is time to start making trades, but you have probably done that, as well. So here are the ___ things I am trying to do this month, ahead of the deadline.

Read the rest of this entry »

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The trade deadline is on Tuesday next week which means some of these rotations might look very different by Wednesday. Keep an eye on the probable matchups early in the week while players get moved around; the recommendations I made above assume that everyone sticks with their original team which obviously won’t happen. When in doubt, use the matchup rating for the series to determine whether or not to start a pitcher on his new team if they’re traded midweek. The rotations for each team should be settled by the weekend which means next week’s recommendations should be a bit more straightforward.
• The impending returns of Hyun Jin Ryu, Max Fried, Nestor Cortes, and José Urquidy will also shake up the rotations on their respective teams. Generally, I recommend waiting a start or two before inserting a starter back into your lineup after he returns from a major injury like these four are.
• As far as the actual schedules go, it looks like the Rangers and Mets both get a pair of easier matchups next week. Texas plays at home against two weaker offenses while the Mets travel to two pitcher friendly ballparks.
• The Braves, Padres, and Reds get a tough slate of opponents next week. Cincinnati and Atlanta both travel to Chicago to face the red hot Cubs and they’ve got tough home matchups in their other series next week too. San Diego travels to Colorado to start next week and then returns home to face the Dodgers over the weekend.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Zac Gallen
• Framber Valdez
• Pablo López
• George Kirby
• Corbin Burnes
• Freddy Peralta
• Alex Cobb
• Jon Gray
• Johan Oviedo
• Brayan Bello
• Taijuan Walker
• Ranger Suárez
• Marcus Stroman
• José Quintana