Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Roansy Contreras, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 19.23%

Yet to appear after being moved to the bullpen, some managers are not willing to wait around to see if Contreras can work his way back into the rotation. In 11 starts in 2023, his 6.87 K/9 is below all his projected marks, and his BB/9 is above his projected marks. His velocity continues to trend down slightly since his MLB debut and the batting average against his fastball in 2023 is an astounding .415. On the flip side, his slider has performed impressively well, being hit for an average of only .194. Contreras has a good curveball to go along with the slider, it currently holds a 41.9% whiff rate, but good secondaries are difficult to rely on without a solid fastball and that’s what Contreras will need to work on out of the pen. If I had been rostering Contreras for a good price, I would still be holding, not dropping. He’s only 23 and still has a lot of potential.

Graham Ashcraft, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 15.71%

After taking a come-backer off the calf, Ashcraft will spend some time on the IL. His 2023 game logs are not pretty. In four of his last seven starts, he has given up seven or more runs. In all of his last seven starts, he has given up at least three runs. Amongst pitchers with at least 60 innings this season, Ashcraft has the third-worst ERA, the eighth-worst FIP, and the fourth-worst K-BB%. While there is a lot to like about Ashcraft from a “Stuff” perspective as was pointed out earlier in the year by our own Nicklaus Gaut, his stuff is getting hit. Some research on pitchers with great stuff who get hit would help give some understanding as to what is going on.

Nick Senzel, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 13.15%

With a slash line of .258/.332/.380 and more time spent on the IL, it’s not surprising to see Senzel’s drop rate increase. The now 27-year-old has played in over 100 games only twice in his career and has never hit above .260. His 2023 OBP (.332) is above league average (.319), but he is not stealing bases. He has never had a wRC+ over 100 and his slugging percentage has been far from the league average in his last three seasons. With the arrival of Elly De La Cruz and the success of Spencer Steer, Senzel will almost certainly have to find playing time in the outfield this season and his defensive marks on the year don’t lead you to believe he is a shoo-in at any one defensive position the rest of the season.

Chris Sale, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 11.85%

It is simply sad to see Sale back on the IL with a “stress reaction in his left scapula”, but such is life. It’s difficult to hold on to Sale at this point as his estimated return is sometime in August. He showed a real return to form after a shaky start to the season, going eight innings in mid-May against the Cardinals while striking out nine and only walking one. If you have the IL spot available, it can’t hurt to hold on to Sale, but otherwise, he should be dropped.

Brandon Lowe, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 10.90%

Rotowire expects that Lowe will return from a herniated disc injury in mid-July, but back injuries are so nagging and difficult to fully return from. Either way, Lowe finds himself on the 10-day IL after hitting nine home runs and slugging .398 in 2023. His batting average sits at a worrisome .205 and he continues to struggle against left-handed pitchers. But, his average against right-handed pitchers is not that much better. Lowe has power, no doubt, but the sacrifice you make to your OBP/AVG categories when you roster him is out of balance with the power he supplies. Before his injury, his 31.3% K% was a near career-high and though his BB% (11.9%) was career-high, it was not enough to get his OBP above .300.

Jeremiah Estrada, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 10.89%

An imminent big leaguer in Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin’s mid-May Cubs assessment, Estrada has appeared in 12 games and lasted 10.2 innings as a right-handed middle reliever. In that time he has put up an impressive 10.97 K/9, but a scary 10.13 BB/9. His ERA sits at 6.75 and his FIP at 9.08. These are not good numbers. Let our prospect experts, Longenhagen and Taruskin, tell you what you need to know:

His stuff isn’t so nasty that you can comfortably project him in a middle-inning role; instead, he’s forecast here as an optionable depth piece.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Anthony Rizzo, -2.25 P/G:

It seems obvious that Rizzo’s Hard% decline is related to his HR/FB rate and wOBA decline. But, his K% has gone up due to an increased O-Swing% (~+5%), decreased O-Contact% (~-6%) and an increased CSW% (~+4%) when compared to his career marks:

He is probably still working through neck and back issues that had him out earlier in the year and swinging hard when you have those types of injuries is very difficult. Keep an eye on his playing status as more off days could be telling of a more serious issue. But, Rizzo is a tough hitter and a good hitter and he should soon get back to his average marks if he can start to feel a little better physically.

Cal Raleigh, -1.22 P/G:

Raleigh only hit one home run in the second half of May and he has not yet hit a home run in the month of June. He is really struggling against right-handed pitchers, batting only .204 and slugging .395. What is interesting however is that Raleigh’s plate discipline metrics are trending, mostly, in the right direction. He is making more contact, swinging outside of the zone less often, and swinging and missing overall less often.

His troubles can be pinpointed to when he does make contact as he’s not hitting the ball as hard as he used to on a consistent basis and that’s where Raleigh has done damage in the past:

Luis Severino, -4.67 P/IP:

Severino’s fastball velocity dipped back down to 95.6 MPH after reaching 98.0 MPH in a start at the end of May. He has only had four starts so far this year and in his last two starts, he has given up three home runs. His fastballs (cutter and four-seamer) are getting hit with batting averages above .300. His slider has been his best pitch so far this year from a swing-and-miss measurement, but he is throwing it slightly less often. It may take another couple of starts to work through a better gameplan/pitch-mix, so keep an eye on Severino in hopes that his velo will go back up and he will start limiting hard contact once again.

Bryce Miller, -4.86 P/IP:

After an excellent start to the season, Miller’s last two appearances were rough. He gave up eight earned runs and two home runs on May 29th and he gave up seven earned runs and one home run on June 4th. He still only has 5 walks in 38.1 innings, but hitters are catching on to the fact that he puts the ball in the zone with regularity and have begun hitting the ball hard:

Miller will have to find a balance between being a pitcher with an impressive 18.4% K-BB%, compared to the league average among starters of 13.8%, and a pitcher who gives up hard contact. While his fastballs are performing well from a pVal standpoint, all being positive, his secondary pitches, the slider, and the curveball are collecting negative values. His changeup is a good offering, but he doesn’t seem to be fooling anyone with the slider and curveball as each has a below-average SwStr%. This is the kind of up-and-down performance we should see from a pitcher who is only 24 years old.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• After working through a tough schedule this week, the Twins have a couple of easier matchups next week at home; the Brewers are much weaker on the road and have been really struggling recently and the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in the league no matter where they’re playing. The Braves also have a pretty nice schedule next week, with three in Detroit and then four games at home against the Rockies.
• The Astros and Rangers both have a pretty tough pair of home series next week. Houston will host the Nationals and Reds, both of which might seem like easy matchups, but both teams have been hitting pretty well recently. Texas hosts the high powered Angels and Blue Jays offenses and trying to avoid matchups against those two teams seems more justifiable. Still, with the way they’ve been pitching recently, you’re probably not going to sit Nathan Eovaldi or Jon Gray right now.
• The Rockies head out on the road next week but they’ve got two really bad matchups lined up which means you’re probably sitting their starters if you happen to be rostering any of them.
• Good luck trying to figure out which starters to start in that Dodgers-Giants series next weekend. Both teams have extremely low matchup ratings, a confluence of the home run friendly ballpark, the strength of San Francisco’s lineup on the road, and the always dangerous Los Angeles offense.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Pablo López
• Zack Wheeler
• Zach Eflin
• Logan Gilbert
• Charlie Morton
• Jesús Luzardo
• James Paxton
• Tanner Bibee
• Jon Gray
• Hunter Brown
• Chris Bassitt
• Joe Musgrove
• Tony Gonsolin
• Logan Webb

A couple of weeks ago, I went through my league 1 roster and outlined who I might use to try to buy as I make a run for the top of the standings. Today, we’ll go the other direction, using my Keep or Kut Listener League team as inspiration for a deep dive into who you should sell, should you need to sell.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

After rethinking what my Friday column looks like a few weeks ago, I wrote up some under-rostered relievers as the first step in reimagining this Tuesday column. This week, I’ll be looking at a few under-rostered starters who have been performing particularly well the past few weeks. I’ve split the article into pitchers rostered in more than and less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues to give a good spread of shallow and deep options.

Roster > 60%

You’ve probably heard that Michael Kopech has finally figured things out after really struggling to start off the year. Through his first eight outings, he had a 5.74 ERA that paled in comparison to his ghastly 7.30 FIP. He had allowed a whopping 12 home runs during that stretch, though his xFIP wasn’t much better at 5.78. His strikeout and walk rates were trending the wrong direction and he looked thoroughly cooked. Then, on May 19, he held the Royals scoreless across eight innings, striking out 10 and walking no one. Granted, it doesn’t take an ace to keep Kansas City off the scoreboard but Kopech has proven that it wasn’t just a fluke against a weak opponent. Across his last four starts, including the one against the Royals, he’s posted a 2.05 ERA backed by a 2.56 FIP and it looks like all his command woes have been put behind him; he’s running an outstanding 9.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this hot stretch. This stretch of success seemingly stems from a mechanical adjustment to reassert his talent.

Miles Mikolas has also put a rough start to the season behind him. Through his first five starts, his ERA and FIP stood at 7.46 and 5.49, respectively. Since then, they’re down to 1.82 and 2.98 in eight starts and he’s been particularly effective over his last three outings. I don’t think there’s any one thing driving his recent success, it’s simply a return to his ultra-efficient profile after a rough five start stretch in April.

Over his last four starts, Jack Flaherty has posted a 1.88 ERA and a 2.45 FIP with a decent 3.13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That’s an improvement over his early season work that suffered from far too many free passes. The biggest difference has been a greater reliance on his fastball; he threw his heater around 37% of the time through the first eight starts of the season and that’s jumped up ten points over the last four. Tangibly, that’s resulted in a nearly five point increase in his zone rate and just eight walks during this stretch.

Clarke Schmidt just tossed his best start of the season against the Mariners last week, holding them scoreless over 5.2 innings with seven strikeouts. Across his last three starts, he holds a 2.07 FIP with a 3.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio. To me, the perception of Schmidt’s struggles this year are out of step with his peripherals — his strikeout and walk rates during this streak of strong starts are right in line with his seasonal averages — but two ugly starts against the Rays and Rangers where he allowed 12 runs marr his overall line. I think his improvement is linked to how he’s using his sweeper. In his first nine starts of the year, he located his big breaking ball in the zone a little over 50% of the time. That rate has fallen three points over his last three starts and his whiff rate with the pitch has seen a five point increase up to 32.5%.

Roster < 60%

Kyle Gibson has been a solid, if unexciting contributor for years. This season, his strikeout rate is down a bit, though it’s been offset by a drop in home runs allowed. A weird seven inning shutout against the Yankees a few weeks ago where he allowed two hits and four walks to go along with three strikeouts is throwing off his strikeout-minus-walk rate you see above. He’s actually been pretty good over his last four outings, with a 2.92 ERA and a 3.20 FIP.

Gibson’s teammate Dean Kremer has also been on a hot streak and it stretches all the way back to the beginning of May. Across his last six starts, he’s posted a 2.55 ERA and a 3.60 FIP with a pretty good 2.90 strikeout-to-walk ratio to back it up. He’s also done this against some of the best offenses in the league — the Braves, Rays, Angels, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Giants — which is a great sign for when he starts facing some weaker teams. His improvement likely stems from his fastball velocity which has now reached a career high of 94.9 mph on average.

A journeyman who has pitched in Korea in two separate stints, Ben Lively is making the most of his time in the majors with the Reds this year. Across four starts, he’s posted a 3.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 3.33 ERA. The problem has been the home runs, particularly at home in the bandbox in Cincinnati; he’s allowed all five of his home runs at home which has caused his FIP to spike to 4.72. He’s a kitchen-sink righty with a fantastic slider fueling his high strikeout rate right now.

I had planned on writing up Alex Faedo in this space, but the Tigers just placed him on the Injured List with a finger injury. He suffers from the same problem as Lively: a fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio is marred by far too many home runs allowed. Instead, I’ll highlight the prospect Detroit called up in Faedo’s place: Reese Olson. Command issues capped the potential ceiling of Olson despite possessing a wipeout slider. He threw that pitch a third of the time in his first major league start and it returned a 33.3% whiff rate. The thing to monitor for him will be his ability to locate his fastball. If he’s able to figure out his command issues, he’s got the deep repertoire to be able to produce in the Tigers rotation.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Twins head out on a tough road trip next week with two tough AL East stops. Tropicana Field is pretty pitcher friendly which is why the matchup rating is so high against the best offense in the majors. Rogers Field is definitely not pitcher friendly and it’s only gotten more dangerous after the fences were moved this year. Start your Twins pitchers if you really need to but they’re all at risk of a blowup next week.
• The Orioles and Yankees get pretty easy schedules next week. Kyle Gibson has a two-start week that you should probably take advantage of and the rest of their rotation is a pretty good bet to produce against the Brewers and Royals. The Yankees host the White Sox and Red Sox next week and both of those opponents are hitting far worse on the road than in their hitter friendly home parks.
• The Rockies return home next week to host the Giants and Padres. That makes it pretty risky to start half the rotations from those two teams, though they do have nice matchups in their non-Coors series.
• The Cubs-Padres and Brewers-Reds series over the weekend will wrap around into Monday. They’re not reflected in the table above but the starters for those teams are listed in their proper categories.

Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale are both on track to be activated from the IL over the weekend. Cal Quantrill was sent to the IL with a shoulder injury, though he probably would have been pushed out of a rotation spot anyway with both Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen thriving in the majors. Monitor McKenzie’s and Civale’s starts over the weekend to see how their stuff is holding up after their injuries. Both should be solid options going forward, though neither has a particularly easy matchup next week.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Shane McClanahan
• Nestor Cortes
• Shane Bieber
• Framber Valdez
• Kyle Gibson
• Braxton Garrett
• Tony Gonsolin</li
• Lucas Giolito
• JP Sears

The other day, I received a fascinating trade proposal in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams: my $42 Bryce Harper for his $48 Corey Seager. If you’ve been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to the breakouts that drove some early success. We’re two months into the season now and the ascent of The Wanderers has slowed a bit and now I’ve got to make a decision about this trade. I thought it would be an interesting exercise to run through my thought process as I consider whether or not to accept this trade, both as a case study for how to come to a decision on a difficult choice and as a way to check in on how my team is doing.

A straight swap of Harper and Seager is pretty interesting for a couple of reasons. First, upon first glimpse, these two players are even on value and production so the swap is simply addressing roster construction rather than a move born out of necessity. It’s also pretty uncommon to see two superstars like this traded straight up. So often, players like Harper are the centerpiece of a win-now move, with prospects or young MLB talent heading the other direction.

First, let’s do a little comparison of how Harper and Seager have performed thus far this season:

Due to injuries, they’ve both missed about the same amount of time this year and have the same number of games played so far. Harper has returned from his Tommy John surgery and has essentially picked up where he left off last year, though that isn’t up to the level of his MVP campaign in 2021. His power output is a little down which probably isn’t surprising considering the nature of his injury and his extremely quick recovery. After undergoing his own Tommy John surgery in late 2018 and exclusively hitting during the 2019 season, Shohei Ohtani’s power was significantly diminished until 2021. I’m assuming the same will hold true for Harper and we won’t see a return to his full, healthy self until next season.

Seager has his own injury concerns, though they clearly haven’t affected his ability to crush the ball. Last year was the first time he had played in a full, 162-game season since 2017. He’s already missed a month with a hamstring injury, though he’s been absolutely dominant when he’s been on the field. His hard hit and barrel rates are up to career highs and it finally seems like he’s settled in Texas after signing his mega contract last year and struggling in his first season as a Ranger.

Using four of the projections hosted on FanGraphs, we can get a rough glimpse of how the computers think these two players are going to perform over the rest of the season.

The projections think that Harper is going to have no trouble continuing to produce at his current pace. It’s certainly possible his power will return sooner rather than later, but that’s not necessarily something I want to bank on. For Seager, the projections are a little more bearish, with ZiPS being particularly pessimistic. I think they’re still weighing his down season last year a little too heavily and it certainly seems like he’s back to producing like he was in his final seasons in Los Angeles.

Without any other context, I think I’d pick Seager over Harper over the remainder of the season. But team and league context matter a great deal, especially in a format like Ottoneu. The Wanderers have fallen to ninth place in League 32, though they’re within 450 points of fourth place. The problem is that the teams in first through third place are an additional 250 points ahead of fourth which makes any dream of a Cinderella run a really long shot this year. Both Harper and Seager are keepable at their current salaries, though the former is likely a big target for arbitration during the offseason. Picking one over the other wouldn’t hamper me financially as I continue my rebuild into next season.

So then it comes down to roster construction. Ottoneu teams have to field a MI and five OF spots in addition to the traditional positions. As you might have guessed from the team name, I’ve already got Wander Franco holding down shortstop so adding Seager would really solidify MI for the future. Finding five consistent producers in the outfield is often a much harder struggle than filling out another infield spot. Here’s what my roster currently looks like at these to positions with each player’s FanGraphs Depth Charts projection listed:

Middle Infield is definitely the stronger position group right now with Muncy, Polanco, Steer, and Lowe all looking like solid contributors. Muncy will likely fill my 3B slot everyday so it’s really down to the latter three to fill two spots, 2B and MI, with Steer acting as my backup SS. My outfield group is a little weaker with just two or three solid options available to me depending on if you think Kelenic’s breakout is for real. There are a bunch of question marks for the remaining options; Hernández has been elite in the past but he’s really struggling in Seattle this year and injuries have derailed Haniger’s and Chisholm’s seasons.

Because a surprise competitive season isn’t looking likely this year, I’m less concerned with how these two position groups are shaping up this season. Looking towards the future, I’d guess I’d keep four players from each position group, though Muncy, Steer, and Chisholm are likely going to lose their MI eligibility next year. Franco is an easy keep as the centerpiece of my roster with Polanco and Tovar on the bubble depending on how they finish the season. That means I’m heading into next year with Franco as really the only guaranteed option in the infield. Happ, Gurriel, Kelenic, and Chisholm look keepable in the outfield which actually gives me a pretty decent foundation to build off of next year.

I let the other owner know that I was going to write up this trade decision so he’s privy to all these thoughts. I honestly didn’t know where I was going to land when I started writing this, but I think I’m leaning more towards Seager at this point. Does anyone have any other thoughts or things to consider that you think I missed?

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Kris Bubic, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 30.77%

Bubic popped up in last week’s Hot Right Now, as all the managers who had cut him 30 days ago added him back to cut him again and reduce his cap penalty. Now he shows up here, as he is being cut again, to complete the cycle. No surprise. This will happen again in another 30 days.

JJ Bleday, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 18.27%

I am sad to see Bleday here, but I get it. When we last discussed him, in the May 10 Hot Right Now, I noted that I was targeting him where I needed OF depth. I cited an improved K-rate (16.1% as of 5/10 vs. 28.2% in his previous MLB cup of coffee) and an increased hard-hit rate (45.8% vs. 33.8%). Since I wrote that, Bleday has been on a mission to make me (and him) look bad. His K-rate is 25% in the last almost three weeks and his hard-hit rate is 31.8%.

Some of this seems to be a simple shift from pitchers. He saw 51.8% fastballs when first called up; since that article he has seen 41.0% fastballs. Pet Baseball Savant, his xwOBA on fastballs is .394 vs. .120 on breakers and .227 on off-speed pitches. While it is typical for hitters to perform better vs. fastballs, his splits are rather extreme. He was a worthwhile gamble, but he’s been exposed. Until he shows he can regularly handle MLB pitches that aren’t fastballs, you can safely let him go and leave him on the wire.

Dominic Fletcher, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 17.31%

Fletcher’s journey from Hot Right Now to here was even quicker than Bleday’s, as he showed up in the HRN a week later. In that article, I again said I might pick him up (and I did) but that I was just going to enjoy the ride, as I worried the crowded OF would make him expendable if his production dropped, as I suspected it would.

And that is basically what happened. His plate discipline didn’t change much after that date, but his batted ball quality did, with his BABIP following, and within a week he was ticketed for Triple-A again. A 25-year-old with solid strike-zone understanding isn’t a bad guy to wait on, but Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Corbin Carroll are locked into two spots, Jake McCarthy has reclaimed a third, Pavin Smith has earned some more opportunities, Kyle Lewis still exists, and Alek Thomas is still likely ahead of Fletcher if someone is needed again. His long-term future is far from known, but for this year he appears to be a 6th OF/taxi squad type. I doubt we have seen the last of him, but I also don’t expect him to play regularly at the MLB level.

The problem for Fletcher from an Ottoneu perspective is that the upside isn’t high enough to justify playing these roster games with the Diamondbacks. When he comes back, if it looks like he is going to be up and if you need an OF, I have no problem grabbing him again and then moving on again when he is demoted. But you don’t need to sit on him.

Cold Performers

Player stat lines reflect last 14 days among players with at least 20 PA in that time frame.

Taylor Ward:  38 PA,  .139/.158/.167, -0.73 P/G

No one reading this will be surprised to hear that Taylor Ward is struggling. Posting a negative in P/G over two weeks, though, is pretty bad. But honestly, Ward has just been not good all year. His walk rate is down a bit while his K-rate is up a bit, as he is swinging more often – both in and out of the zone – and making enough more contact that his K-rate hasn’t ballooned. His line drive rate has plummeted, bringing down his BABIP with it.

If you want to be optimistic, I think you can squint at this graph and see some evidence that what is happening right now is a confluence of things that are all bad but not atypical for him:

He has seen K-rate spikes like this. He has seen his LD% fluctuate like this. He has seen his BB-rate drop like this. But that depends a lot on what happens next. He is dangerously close to falling outside his last three-year ranges for walks and strikeouts. And that is where you have to start to question if this is just a slump or if we are seeing a real decline in his skills.

But right now, it looks to me like the line drive rate recovering will cure a lot of ills. His hard-hit rate looks fine, having recovered after a dip earlier in the year.

His barrel rate has fallen in large part because his Sweet Spot rate has fallen, resulting in all those missing liners. Line drive rate is fickle, coming and going as it pleases. If he can start to get those line drives back, the barrel rate will climb with it and he’ll get back to being an effective hitter. I am tempted to buy-low, but I am watching closely what happens with his plate discipline and line drive rate in the next couple of weeks. If the line drive rate doesn’t recover or the walks and strikeouts keep trending the wrong direction, it’ll be time to bail.

James Outman: 39 PA, .114/.179/.200, 1.1 P/G

Outman was the new hotness not that long ago over the last couple of weeks he is living up to his name. He is the Out Man, creating 33 outs in 14 days. And that is being kind, as he was 0-9 in the four days before that.

What has gone wrong for the young breakout star? The strikeouts, for one thing. He is at a 44.7% k-rate since May 12. We knew that was a risk – even while going well he was over a 32% strikeout rate – but that jump from “boy this isn’t a great strikeout rate” to “goodness maybe that need to send him down” happened quickly. To make matters worse, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate (all stats that are unaffected by K-rate) have plummeted, as he has simply stopped making good contact.

Like Bleday earlier, Outman has seen a shift in pitch types, but in a maybe-unexpected direction. He is seeing more four-seam fastballs. As of May 10, he was facing four-seamers 42.3% of the time; since that has increased to 55.7% of the time. Why? He can’t hit the heat.

His xwOBA vs. four-seamers is .295, which is the 15th worst out of 160 players with 50+ PA. He has a 40.7% whiff rate against four-seamers and that is dead-last among those 160 players. The highest rate of four-seamers for any hitters is Mike Trout, who sees the, 47.2% of the time, which suggests that the 55.7% Outman has seen the last few weeks isn’t just random fluctuation.

The result (beyond the awful results noted above) is that Outman has found himself riding the bench more often. The Dodgers have not been shy about moving young players up and down in their system and they have guys who are hitting (Chris Taylor has been very good lately; Jason Heyward has been resurgent) and prospects who could use a shot (Andy Pages and Michael Busch come to mind). Outman is already falling down the depth chart and there is plenty of room for him to fall off it entirely.

If I roster Outman, I am selling if I can. An inability to hit four-seam fastballs – and especially to swing through them at such a high rate – is a real concern. If you can’t or don’t want to sell, I can understand holding and treating him like a prospect. But for now, he can’t be in your lineup and I’d rather not have him on my roster.

Yu Darvish: 14 IP, 20 pts 1.43 P/IP

Two weeks ago, Yu Darvish was a 5.23 P/IP SP, looking like the reliable front-line guy you drafted. Today, his season line is down to 4.29 P/IP. While you may be tempted to write that off as a result of a rough day (-6.77 in 2.2 IP) at Yankee Stadium (and a rough day at Yankee Stadium is an utterly forgivable offense for a starting pitcher), the two starts before that weren’t so hot either, at just 2.36 P/IP combined.

And it honestly dates back further than that. After looking great almost through the end of April, he gave up his first three HR of the season in a single start on 4/30. With the exception of one brilliant start against the Dodgers, he’s been homer-prone and watching his K-rate continue a multi-year downward trend:

That’s not a great look. I have been down on Darvish for a while, mostly because he has been so up-and-down since 2016. He was great that year (and the years before it), but since then he has been:

• Mediocre
• Bad in just 8 starts
• Mediocre, but maybe bad?
• Brilliant in the shortened 2020
• Not good
• Very Good
• And now this year, suddenly looking pretty bad again

When you look at that track record (and feel free to quibble with it, if you want), the fact that he is continuing to decline in his age 36 season isn’t particularly surprising. I don’t think he is done and I don’t think you need to rush to cut him – when I said I have been down on Darvish that is relative to the market, not a statement that I think he sucks. But I don’t think you should expect much more than him providing 4.5-4.6 P/IP. That isn’t a bad SP, at all, but it is not an ace or even a guy you really want to rely on at the top of your rotation.

If you are not contending this year, I would sell Darvish after his next good start, regardless of his salary, to recoup your costs and get a piece or two for the future. If you are contending, I still might shop him (especially if you have the SP depth to swap him for a bat), as I think his market value still outpaces his production. But there is nothing wrong with keeping him, starting him everytime and enjoying the brilliance mixed in with the poor performances, leading to an overall decent line.