Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• Atlanta has a couple of easier matchups next week but they also have a makeup game scheduled for Thursday in Chicago. That means they’ll travel to St. Louis for the first half of the week, make their one-day stop on the Southside, and then head home to face the Pirates. It looks like Charlie Morton and Drew Thorpe are the two pitchers scheduled to start in that game.
• Philadelphia also has a pair of easier matchups next week against the Tigers and Marlins, and the only reason why that Miami series isn’t colored blue above is because they’re playing in Philadelphia and the comfy confines of Citizens Bank Park.
• The Blue Jays have a pretty tough slate of games against the Red Sox in Fenway and then the Yankees at home. It also looks wise to fade starters from the Rangers too; they’re on the road against the Brewers and Orioles.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As Chad Young has done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

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Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• On Thursday, June 20, the Cardinals and Giants will play their game at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama. The listed field dimensions (321 ft to left, 393 to center, and 332 to right) are comparable to that of Petco Park, though that stadium in San Diego also has the marine layer to suppress offense. Those dimensions are smaller than the average MLB stadium, though renovating the walls and possibly moving them was on the list of preparations for this game. If St. Louis and San Francisco stick with their current rotation, Andre Pallante and Keaton Winn should be the scheduled starters for this game and neither is worth going out of your way to start in an unknown offensive environment.
• The Angels, Nationals, Orioles, and Phillies all have tough matchups on the docket next week. There are just a handful of pitchers who are matchup proof on those teams, but the majority of their pitchers are safe to avoid.
• The Marlins and Twins have pairs of easier matchups on the schedule. Miami might also be recalling Max Meyer this weekend and he’d slot into one of those easy matchups at home next week if he isn’t sent back to the minors.
• We could see the activation of Gerrit Cole, Zac Gallen, and Bobby Miller off the IL next week. None of them have truly desirable matchups on the calendar, particularly Miller who could be activated only to have a start in Coors Field lined up.

Fantasy baseball trades are difficult to pull off. Everyone feels like the offer is too one-sided. You either have to be willing to give something up or, you have to be in a more realistic “buyer” versus “seller” type of situation. This is exactly where I find myself, believe it or not, as a buyer. After a few days of clicking, calling, and chat-boxing like Billy Beane, a counter-trade offer has come my way looking like a deal worth taking:
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The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As Chad Young has done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

Now that we’re more than two months into the season, we can do a bit of digging to see if we can find pitchers who have improved from month-to-month, specifically looking at Stuff+ since it’s pretty reactionary to changes in a pitcher’s repertoire. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 50% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

There are three starters from Oakland listed above which is a bit of a surprise. JP Sears is the most recognizable of that trio as he’s enjoyed spurts of success over the last two seasons. His downfall has been a particularly bad home run problem — something that particularly hurts his value in Ottoneu. In an effort to curtail those long ball woes, he’s adjusted his pitch mix to feature his sweeper as his primary pitch while also increasing the usage of his sinker to try and generate more contact on the ground. His flat four-seam fastball will always encourage fly ball contact but he generates the majority of his swings-and-misses with that pitch so he needs to strike a balance between whiffs and contact management. Recently, he’s been able to thread that needle; over his last three starts, he’s allowed just seven runs in 19 innings while running a pretty good 2.80 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and most importantly, keeping the ball in the park.

The other two Oakland starters are a bit more unproven. Mitch Spence was a rule-5 pick this offseason and is getting a chance to prove himself in the rotation over the last few weeks or so. Across his first five starts in the majors, he’s allowed just nine runs in 26 innings and is running a solid 3.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio out of the rotation. His underlying Stuff+ metrics look pretty decent, with his slider standing out in particular. He’s also running a groundball rate over 50% which gives him a little more value in Ottoneu if he can continue avoiding the long ball.

Pressed into the rotation for the same reasons Spence was, Joey Estes is making the most of it as well. A clunker of a start against the Astros back on May 16 is weighing heavily on his results, but outside of that ugly outing in Houston, he’s allowed six runs in 23.1 innings in his other four starts with a great strikeout-to-walk ratio. Stuff+ also loves his slider and cutter and his command of his four-pitch mix has been outstanding so far.

Spencer Arrighetti has taken a while to acclimate to the big leagues but he’s been on a pretty good run of starts recently. He’s allowed four runs across his last 14 innings with 19 strikeouts. His biggest issue is his lack of command; his walk rate is pretty high and he’s allowed at least two free passes in each of his starts this year. His Stuff+ scores have improved pretty dramatically from the first month of the season, with most of the improvements stemming from his fastballs. He’s in the same zone as Sears where his heaters get crushed when batters put them in play, but he’s also generating a significant number of whiffs with the pitch. Right now, he’s found that balance between earning swings-and-misses while also avoiding too much hard contact.

With injuries decimating the Orioles rotation, Albert Suárez 수아레즈 is getting another shot as a starter. So far, he’s allowed just seven runs in 29.1 innings out of the rotation. All the things I said about him back on April 23 still hold true:

“His calling card is a mid-90s fastball with plenty of carry that he can command at the top of the zone. Batters have swung and missed on nearly 20% of the heater’s he’s thrown in his two starts so far. That’s a ridiculous whiff rate, especially for a fastball. His repertoire is rounded out with a changeup and cutter, both of which are returning decent results so far.”

The ridiculous whiff rate on his fastball has fallen to merely above average with more exposure to big league hitters, but he’s still putting up solid results anyway. His ceiling might not be as high as expected based on his first three starts of the year, but he’s a solid fill-in starter who can provide quality innings for your team.

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• It’s pretty surprising to see the matchups against the Astros and the Braves highlighted in blue above (indicating that they’re an easier matchup). Both of these potent lineups are mired in pretty significant slumps — Atlanta has posted a .286 wOBA over the last 14 days and the Astros aren’t much better at .288 — and they both struggle to produce on the road. That means that the Giants and Orioles have a sneakily decent matchup against these two ball clubs you’d normally want to avoid.
• Speaking of San Francisco, they’ve got a homestand next week against the aforementioned Astros and then the hapless Angels. The Diamondbacks also look like they have a pair of easier matchups lined up next week; they host the Angels and White Sox and could potentially welcome back Zac Gallen from the IL if his rehab goes quickly.
• There are a bunch of teams with two tough matchups next week. The Royals probably have the most difficult pair of opponents in the Yankees and Dodgers and I’m fading every Kansas City pitcher, even Cole Ragans in LA. The Blue Jays, Brewers, and Reds each have hot hitting opponents on the docket too and you’d probably be better off avoiding having any pitchers from those teams in your lineups next week.

The Ottoneu Slack Community is a great source of interesting debates on Ottoneu-specific topics and another was sparked today by this exchange:

Manager 1: What is record for trying to get an RP at auction without success? I am on my 6th nom.

Manager 2: Depends on if you’re trying to get them for $1 or bidding to win.

Manager 1: Nope, bidding market value or higher.

Managers are left anonymous here because a) it doesn’t matter and b) I want to be clear that I am not picking on or attacking anyone. We have all been in manager 1’s shoes, trying to fill a spot and failing, while feeling you are doing what is needed to get an auction win. But it does open up an interesting topic on “market value.”

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