The FanGraphs in-house league drafted last week, and 60 cans of PBR and Tecate into the Arizona dawn, we were mostly finished. My domination – though assured – will be even sweeter against competition like the FanGraphs staff. Despite the danger of putting the cart before the horse, I’ll call PBR the champagne of beers and crack one open for myself.

Well, maybe. I tend to be a little bipolar with my fantasy teams. It’s either all good or all terrible. Tell me what you think.

12-Team Ottoneu LWTS Points
It’s A Perm
C Geovany Soto $26
C Ryan Doumit $1
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Commenters in my last post asked how to determine position scarcity in FanGraphs Points leagues, and another reader, Kris, suggested using box plots.  I figured “hey, that’s a good idea for a post.”  So, here is a box plot based on Marcel projected 2011 performances for starters at each hitting position (using the numbers of players per position that Zach used here).

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The below is a slightly modified email I sent yesterday to John, who has graciously allowed me to use the conversation for this post.  This is an open conversation, so I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.

From: Niv Shah
Subject: Re: One potential customer’s thoughts
To: “John Meyer”
Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2011, 4:45 PM

Hi John,

First, I want to thank you for your well-thought out email.  It is great for me to get feedback like this, it helps me understand what my potential customers are thinking and its a great insight for me when thinking about what I should work on next.

I could not agree with you more about your underlying question about ottoneu.  This sentence of yours sums it up the best:

It requires people who are able to give a long-term and dedicated commitment, which is generally found only among acquaintances and friends, and it also requires people who are very serious baseball fans, which, for a full league, is generally found only among strangers on the internet.

So, here are my arguments as to why ottoneu is uniquely situated to limit this problem, as well as some for how when we inevitably run into this problem next offseason we plan on handling it.

First, I should start by stating that I have been in an ottoneu league for over 5 years.  In that time, 3 people have dropped out.  2 dropped out before the game started – said they would play, and quit before the draft.  1 dropped out after year 3 because he had to focus on other personal obligations.  A replacement was found in each case pretty quickly.  While everyone in the league is a friend of a friend by some degree, not everyone knows everyone, and there are definitely owners that have been in tough roster situations and could easily have quit, but have chosen not to.  Granted, this is a limited anecdote, but I believe it has some value to your concerns.

Second, there are a number of reasons why ottoneu, unlike other fantasy leagues, will work better with strangers from a competitive balance standpoint.  Year over year, there are a number of things in place to make sure each team has an opportunity to win at the beginning of the season – deadline trades, arbitration, the very nature that expensive superstars are sent back to auction every season by the way inflation and mid-season trades work all help give teams a chance to win every year.  I’m happy to discuss any of these in more detail if you have any questions about them.

Third, the fact that you are in a league with 11 other like-minded individuals who had to pay money to play, which more than anything acts as a barrier of entry to just mindlessly joining a league and ignoring it by June, will help attrition greatly.  In a sense, everyone else in the league has the same mindset as you when joining – is this league going to stay together, or are 3 teams going to quit, etc – yet they have chosen to play, making their implicit statement that they are probably not going to be the team that is going to drop out and ruin the league.  Beyond that, the game requires a lot of trading and interacting with the other owners, and while it might seem silly, the camaraderie from these interactions are a huge boost in keeping leagues together.

Finally, while we have been hesitant to mention it at this point of the year, we have a plan for an interesting way to redistribute teams in the case that an owner does decide for whatever reason to drop out or not renew their team.  We plan on offering abandoned teams at a half-off for the first season starting price, which brings in new owners to inherit disbanded teams at a discount in year one.  We believe this will help league health and limit the number of leagues that are faced with a completely abandoned team for an entire year.

I believe all of these points in total will really help attrition year over year, though obviously it will not solve the problem completely.  Towards that, the only other thing I can say is that so far I have had nothing but excellent responses from some of our public owners.  Many leagues have drafted already, people have repeatedly told me that it is one of the best draft experiences out there, and so far the ‘strangers’ issue just hasn’t been a problem for these leagues.

So, that is my argument.  I’d love to hear your thoughts more, and if you’re ok with it I would like to use this conversation as the basis for a post on FanGraphs/RotoGraphs tomorrow.

Thanks again for the great email!
Niv Shah

The only point I’d like to add to this already long post is that as long as I still need to administer my league, I’ll be here to help administer your leagues and add features and answer questions and help out in any way that I can.  My league has been going strong for six years and I don’t see it ending any time soon.

If you have questions that you want to send me directly, you can reach me at help AT ottoneu DOT com, and if any of this answers your concerns, there is still plenty of time to join a league or start a league today.

Last week, we looked at hitters who are likely to be overrated by traditional fantasy rankings when playing in ottoneu leagues using FanGraphs Points (built on linear weights).  Today, we’ll look at the other side of the coin: which players will have better value in lwts leagues than in traditional leagues?

Based on what we found last week about overrated players (steals, mostly), this is what I expected to find as the typical profile of someone who would be underrated by traditional fantasy rankings:
1) slow, with no steals
2) low batting average
3) high OBP
4) maybe someone who hits lots of doubles, but relatively few home runs.

Essentially, we’re talking traditional “moneyball” here, right?

To test that idea,went back to my simple ranking system, which is based on FG Points but adjusted for replacement level (specific to ottoneu’s rules) at each position.  Here are the top 10, along with ESPN player rater rank:

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ottoneu Fantasy Baseball has received a tremendous amount of feedback since launching, and it has resulted in some new features that I would like to share with all of you.

The largest improvement is that we’ve created an alternate draft method for those of you who aren’t able to get the league together for a live auction draft.  Based on feedback from various leagues, you can now opt out of the auction draft and run 48-hour blind auctions between now and the start of the season.  Now instead of needing one block of time that can last longer than six hours, you can organize the auctions to only require 5 minutes a day.  You can even do a live auction for part of the league, and then switch to the 48-hour auctions whenever you want.  Choose whatever is most convenient for the league.

We’ve done a lot to clarify and improve our FanGraphs integration as well.  The FanGraphs toolbar now gives you fantasy-relevant projections, sortable stats, free agents, and a stronger player search within one click.  The FanGraphs staff league is going to draft this week in Arizona, and as the FanGraphs guys get to play with the game a bit, we will be adding more tools and features based on their feedback.

Of course, at the end of the day, this operation is to share a really neat fantasy baseball game with all of you.  As those of you who have contacted us already know, I am very responsive to comments, bugs, new feature requests, and questions.  ottoneu consists of one person, me, trying to build something that you, the informed baseball fan, will enjoy much more than a traditional fantasy game.  Since I am familiar with the entire site and the game format, you can reach me at the contact us page and I will do everything in my power to add any new tools or integration or features you want, resolve any questions you have, and respond and understand any comments you send. 

Already, existing leagues have pointed out the need for a league message board (resolved, and being improved shortly), the need for an alternate long-form draft option (resolved), as well as the need for clarity in player search and other FanGraphs tools (resolved).  Go to the contact us page, send an email to help, and let’s keep improving fantasy baseball!

Free Team!
We aren’t done giving away free teams for this season, and after Eno picked on me a few times with my ‘bad’ keepers and ‘bad’ trades, I think I’ll give away the next team.  Let’s do an exercise about positional scarcity.  ottoneu lineups consist of 1 C, 1B, 2B, SS, MI, 3B, Util, 5 OF, 5 SP, and 5 RP.  There is no CI since the util spot tends to lean CI.  Here are some players, their positions, and their prices.  Based on positional scarcity and performance in the 4×4 format (OBP, SLG, HR, R and ERA, WHIP, HR/9, K), who do you think is the best value, and who do you think is the worst?  All prices are from the original ottoneu league.  As always, show your work:

Shin-Soo Choo, OF, $27

Hanley Ramirez, SS, $57

Tim Lincecum, SP, $58

Bobby Jenks, RP, $6

Pretty varied set of players, and all but one of these prices was set at our auction draft on February 28th.  I’m very interested to see what you come up with!  Good luck!

While we have been really happy with the launch of ottoneu Fantasy Baseball, the launch of the prize leagues definitely left something to be desired.  So having taken your comments into consideration, we’ve taken our industry leading prizes and improved them.

First, we’re changing the prizes to all cash, both for simplicity and to give our winners a bit more scratch in their pockets for the off-season.  Second, we’re introducing a $49.99 tier, available immediately.  First place at the end of the season will receive $300, second place will receive $100, and third will receive $50.  We’re also increasing the first place prize at the $99.99 tier.  First place will now receive $650, with second place receiving $200, and third place receiving $100 in cash.

Finally, we’re dropping the $249.99 and $499.99 tiers to interest-only lists.  If you’re interested in playing at a higher tier for higher prizes, let us know.  We will work with you on a league by league basis to optimize the prize structure for what you and your league wants!

Of course the $9.99 tier is still available, with multiple public leagues looking for members today and drafts happening all the time.

Between a game we think is excellent and prizes that are better than any other prize league out there, I believe we have a really strong offering for all levels of fantasy players.  We hope that these revamped prizes will be more to your liking.  Please let us know what you think in the comments or by contacting us.  Of course, there is still plenty of time before the season, so you can start a league or join one today!

Rank the top-10 fantasy hitters from last year, by performance, in your head.  Does the list look like this?  Here is ESPN’s Player Rater’s Top 11, based on a traditional 5×5 roto league:

1. Carlos Gonzalez (#7)
2. Carl Crawford (#42)
3. Albert Pujols (#2)
4. Joey Votto (#4)
5. Miguel Cabrera (#3)
6. Josh Hamilton (#5)
7. Jose Bautista (#1)
8. Robinson Cano (#6)
9. Hanley Ramirez (#17)
10. Ryan Braun (#37)
11. Juan Pierre (below replacement)

You may quibble here and there (Pierre might seem out of place, for example), but my guess is that the list is reasonably close.

Things change a bit if you were playing using FanGraphs Points.  The number in parentheses above is my 2010 rank order of hitters based on FanGraphs Points, which are built on linear weights.  That ranking takes into account position, and gives incomplete credit for playing time because DL stints can be made up for with substitutions.  It’s not perfect, but it’s a pretty good ranking of value in our system.

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You requested, and we listened: today we are introducing 3 new tiers of ottoneu Fantasy Baseball, each with prizes for first, second, and third place.

$99.99 Tier

The team that finishes in first at this tier will receive $500, and second place will receive $100.  First, second, and third will all receive a free one-year renewal of their respective teams.

$249.99 Tier

The team that finishes in first at this tier will receive $1250, and second place will receive $250.  Again, first, second, and third place will all receive a free one-year renewal of their respective teams.

$499.99 Tier

The team that finishes in first at this tier will receive $2500, and second place will receive $500.  Just like the previous two tiers, first through third all receive a free one-year renewal of their respective teams.

Other than awarding cash prizes for the top 3 in each of these leagues, the game is the same as the $9.99 tier, which is now our permanent price for the basic tier.  Full dynasty league with auction drafts, FanGraphs leaderboard integration, and more.  Let us know what you think, and sign up today!

Well, here we are. It’s the beginning of March, the birds are chirping, baseball is being played, and it’s fantasy baseball drafting season for most of us. It’s also supposed to be the day that the FanGraphs Fantasy game, ottoneu, becomes more expensive. Well, as some of you may have already noticed, that won’t be the case. A new team will continue to cost $9.99, and we hope that helps you keep a few more duckets in your pocket while you have fun managing your new team.

We’ve extended the low-price early-bird special… and we hope to bring you even more exciting news about other ottoneu offerings in the coming days. Mysterious!

But that’s not the only fun thing we get to announce today. In order to add some value to the game, we’ve searched high and wide in order to find you some Guest Commissioners to play with. These players have agreed to attach their name to an ottoneu league – and you get to take them on. Hopefully, on this list, is a writer you’ve wanted to battle. Now you get to test your wits against:

Zach Sanders (FanGraphs)
Chris Cwik (FanGraphs)
Michael Rathburn (RotoExperts)
The Common Man (Platoon Advantage)
Will Moller (ItsAboutTheMoneyStupid)
John Halpin (FOXSports)
Ben Jedlovec (Baseball Info Solutions)
Derek VanRiper (RotoWire)
Justin Merry (BeyondtheBoxscore, FanGraphs)
Jeff Gross (TheHardballTimes)
Josh Shepardson (TheHardballTims)
Sam Miller (The Orange County Register)
Craig Brown (Baseball Prospectus)
Matthew Callan (AmazinAvenue)
Tim Heaney (KFFL)
Eriq Gardner (Bloomberg Sports, FantasyBaseballJunkie.com)
Reggie Yinger (Baseball Press)
Justin Phan (Fantasy Baseball Cafe)
DJ Short (RotoWorld)

A few administrative things. The draft date set by our guest commissioners is final if they want it to be. Hopefully, they’ll list the draft time in the league title, along with their name and affiliation, so you can easily peruse draft times and commissioners when you search for a new league. This also goes for the league settings. We hope that you will be respectful of the commissioners, but bring your “A” game.

Because it’s a good list of fantasy players.

Interested in playing in my ottoneu league, using this scoring system?  See the bottom of this post for info on how you can join!

Last week we looked at hitter FanGraphs Points, which are built on linear weights.  A complementary pitching points system was more difficult to devise: you can’t just use linear weights, because then you’d be rewarding the pitcher who gave up the most runs!

Therefore, it was necessary to develop a system that had some objective basis, but would a) reward good pitchers for being better than bad pitchers, and b) have point totals that would correspond to those of hitters.  And, just as our hitting system doesn’t track statistics that are substantially affected by other players (like RBI or runs), our pitching system should reward pitchers for what they do as opposed to what their teammates (pitchers and fielders) do.  That means no wins, runs allowed…or hits.

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