Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• There are a few schedule quirks next week: the Mets and Cardinals have a makeup game on Monday which means New York flies from Los Angeles to St. Louis for a single game and then head to Denver and Seattle to complete the road trip. That’s a pretty heavy schedule which could lead to some really tired bodies by the end of it. The other quirk is a scheduled doubleheader between the Twins and Guardians on Friday.
• Folks, we did it. We have the highest possible matchup score when the White Sox visit Oakland — that’s the worst offense over the last 14 days and on the road playing in the stadium with the best combination of overall run scoring and home run suppressing park factors. JP Sears, Ross Stripling, and Joey Estes are lined up to start in that series and they’re all pitching well enough to count on.
• The Padres, Twins, and Yankees all have a pair of easier matchups on the schedule while the Blue Jays and Phillies have a couple of tough series and the Rockies are at home for a six-game homestand.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The MLB trade deadline is next week and I’d expect to see plenty of pitchers moved ahead of the deadline. Make sure you’re double- and triple-checking the announced starters, especially on Monday and Tuesday, so that you’re not caught off guard by a surprise trade.
• There aren’t any teams that are facing a pair of tough matchups by the calculate matchup ratings above, but I’d avoid Toronto’s starters if I were you. They’re on the road against the Orioles and Yankees with a scheduled doubleheader in Baltimore on Monday. It’ll be a tough week for the O’s too; because of that doubleheader, they’re scheduled to play eight games in seven days including the start of a road trip next weekend in Cleveland.
• On the flip side, the Diamondbacks and Cardinals both have a pair of easier matchups on the docket next week. It’s a little easier to recommend Arizona’s starters since St. Louis’ have been so erratic this year, but they should all have some pretty rosy matchups to take advantage of.

The MLB trade deadline is just around the corner — don’t worry, the Ottoneu trade deadline isn’t until August 31 — and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

I wrote up Yariel Rodríguez at the start of the month and all he’s done since is add a couple more solid starts; he had an abbreviated four inning start against the Diamondbacks on July 12 in which he struck out seven and then struck out another six in a start yesterday against the Rays. Everything I said about him a few weeks ago still applies — I like the improvements he’s made to his strikeout-minus-walk rate but there are some workload concerns still present.

Ryne Nelson has put together a nice little stretch of starts in July; he’s allowed 10 runs in 30.1 innings while running a pretty good 15.4% strikeout-minus-walk rate. None of the pitches in his repertoire really standout from a stuff or results perspective. The biggest difference this month has been a greater reliance on his fastball, increasing its usage up to 63.8%. He’s also raised his release point by a little more than two inches which could be helping him generate a little more carry on his backspinning heater. Batters have had an absolutely terrible time trying to square up his four-seamer; they’ve produced just a .185 wOBA and a .228 xwOBA off the pitch in July and that’s a huge reason why his overall results have seen an improvement. It’s probably worth monitoring his next couple of starts to see if the release point change is really the underlying factor behind his improvement.

You probably shouldn’t go out of your way to try and roster Patrick Corbin, but if you’re truly desperate, there might be some value to be wrung out of the last vestiges of his career. Over his last seven starts dating back to June 13, he’s allowed 17 runs in 39.1 innings while running a 3.19 FIP. It’s not all smoke and mirrors either; his xFIP is a solid 3.67 and his strikeout-minus-walk rate is better than it’s been in years. The cause behind his sudden late-career renaissance? A new cutter that he debuted this year that’s suddenly become a major piece of his repertoire. He’s throwing it more than a quarter of the time in July and it’s returned a 37.5% whiff rate and a .102 xwOBA allowed. More importantly, it’s allowed him to reduce the usage of his absolutely atrocious sinker. Seven starts is just a blip when compared to the years of below replacement level production, but it’s possible Corbin has finally figured out a way to be successful with his diminished stuff.

I also wrote up Dedniel Núñez about a month ago and he’s only solidified his place as a high-leverage option in the Mets bullpen. After a stint in the rotation followed by a demotion to Triple-A, José Buttó has joined Núñez in New York’s relief corps this month. They were desperate for any help they could get, so converting Buttó from a starter to more of a fireman role in their bullpen seemed like a good idea. With Núñez and Edwin Díaz covering the eighth and ninth innings, respectively, Buttó has been largely deployed as a bridge to get to those two relievers in the sixth and seventh innings. So far, it’s worked out. He’s allowed a single run this month and has collected a save and two holds while working multiple innings in five of his six appearances.

Josh Sborz returned from a shoulder injury at the beginning of the month and has slotted right back into the high-leverage mix for the Rangers. He’s collected a hold in three of his five outings and he lasted two innings in two of those appearances. He hasn’t allowed a walk since coming off the IL and has struck out seven.

Jacob Webb has slowly climbed the pecking order in the Orioles bullpen, helped by an injury to Danny Coulombe. He’s been a solid reliever all year long but he’s been particularly effective this month. With Baltimore in the middle of a tough fight for the AL East division lead, I’d expect the O’s to acquire some bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline. Webb has a high-leverage role carved out right now, but that could quickly change over the next few days depending on how they approach the deadline.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Since the All-Star break extended the current weekly matchup to Sunday, July 21, I’m splitting this article into two sections, one covering this weekend and one covering next week. For those of you playing in head-to-head leagues and haven’t hit your games started cap, here’s the projected starters for this weekend:

• The Astros, A’s, Mets, Phillies, and Royals all look like they have pretty easy matchups this weekend. I’d avoid starters from the Brewers, Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Red Sox, and Rockies. Also note that Milwaukee and Minnesota are off on Friday and play just twice this weekend.

Here are the projected starters for next week:

• Many teams have only announced a handful of starters as they reslot their rotations coming out of the break. There may be some more guess work for who pitches when until each team announces how they’re lining everything up after the weekend. To make matters more complicated, there are a ton of injured starters who will likely be activated sometime next week including Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie, Ray, Jeffrey Springs, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and Jordan Montgomery. And then there are the potential minor league call ups like Max Meyer, River Ryan, and Matt Manning. All that to say, make sure you’re paying attention to the announced starters for each matchup and plan ahead.
• The Cardinals and Mariners both have a pair of easier matchups next week. It’s easy to recommend every Seattle starter but St. Louis still has a few starters I’d be weary of starting even with such favorable matchups.
• The Yankees have two tough matchups lined up next week, though they’re wrapping up a four-game set against the Rays on Monday giving Carlos Rodón a bit of a respite from the difficult opponents until his second start next week.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »