• Kodai Senga and Shintaro Fujinami, both from Japan, are likely to sign with a major league club this offseason.

Right-hander Kodai Senga is planning to trigger the opt-out in his contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and become a free agent, according to a report from Sankei Sports (Japanese language link). Senga and the club agreed to a five-year extension back in December, though that contract contained an opt-out clause after the first season. Senga will be a free agent and won’t be subject to the MLB-NPB posting system. It was reported in August that Senga planned to pursue MLB opportunities this winter and it now seems he will follow through on those plans.

and

The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to make right-hander Shintaro Fujinami available to MLB clubs this offseason via the posting system, according to a report from Kyodo News. Back in September, reports from Japan (Japanese link from Sponichi Annex and English link from The Japan Times) relayed his desire to attempt the move to North America. It now seems that the club will grant him his wish.

Here are the ZiPS projections for both.

Senga is definitely the more interesting of the two.

• I’ve continued to update the hitters who played through an injury list. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Mariners

• Cal Raleigh played through a torn ligament in his hand.

Cal Raleigh revealed after the game that he has a broken thumb and a torn ligament in his left (catching) hand. Been playing through that for more than a month.

— Adam Jude (@A_Jude) October 16, 2022

It didn’t seem to bother him much with September being his best month (.959 OPS). Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• The Angels plan on being aggressive with player promotions.

Minasian hasn’t been shy about putting draftees immediately in Double A or about calling players up to the big leagues from Double A. He said that’s a product both of his philosophy and of needs in the organization.

“I believe that it’s with good intentions and we do it with the right people,” Minasian said.

At this point in my offseason analysis, I’m not sure who might get an early call but I know to keep my eyes open.

Athletics

• Ramón Laureano plans on being healthier and stronger to start next season.

Even in his most productive past seasons, Laureano said he felt injuries limited him from reaching his true potential. After he finishes his rehab this offseason, Laureano will strive for preparing his body to withstand his goal of playing a full 162-game season.

“I haven’t really been lifting that many weights the past couple of years,” Laureano said. “Everybody says that less is more, but I think I need to go hard. That’s a key right there. I think, baseball-wise, I want to be more fast-twitch. Also clean up some stuff in the cage with my hitting.

Orioles

• Jake Cave has signed with the Orioles.

The Orioles have claimed outfielder Jake Cave off waivers from the Twins, according to the MLB.com transactions tracker. Baltimore is designating reliever Jake Reed for assignment in a corresponding move. Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com confirms the news (Twitter link).

Cave could end up being on the strong side of a platoon with career .744 OPS against righties and .592 OPS against lefties.

Red Sox

• The team is going to target “top caliber” relievers.

As part of the win-now messaging, Bloom admitted the club will be in the market for top-caliber pitchers in the bullpen and rotation, a shift from previous offseasons when he shopped on the periphery of the market for pitching help.

“Because of some of the depth on the pitching side, we’re going to be considering a little bit different set of possibilities,” he said.

For those in draft-and-hold leagues, this news probably means the next closer isn’t on the team especially since Matt Strahm is a free agent.

• Since Eric Hosmer will be easy to trade and the improving Triston Casas will likely be the team’s first baseman next season

While Cora and the Red Sox like first baseman Eric Hosmer, he is also a lefty hitter like Casas, and it seems most likely they will trade him for another piece of the roster. Given that they owe him the major league minimum salary with the Padres taking on a majority of $44 million left on his deal, the Red Sox have a chance to flip him for little cost.

Bloom added that he didn’t know if there was room on the roster for two left-handed hitting first basemen, and praised Casas’ debut, noting that his patient approach at the plate didn’t degrade as he handled big league pitching.

“When we got Hos, we were focused on what he could bring to us right now and not wanting to rush Triston,” Bloom said. “Sometimes the results were there (for Casas). Sometimes they weren’t. He was a tough at-bat every single time which is going to be one of his calling cards as he goes forward. So that’s all really encouraging. It’s something we’re going to have to look at. Couldn’t be happier with how he progressed the last couple of months of the season.”

Tigers

• Spencer Turnbull should be ready for the start of next season.

RHP Spencer Turnbull: Hello, old friend. Turnbull had surgery in 2021, not long after he threw a no-hitter and was getting on the radar of the entire league. Turnbull’s rehab from Tommy John surgery has been slow, but he has a 3.46 ERA over his past 20 MLB starts. If he’s in a good place next spring, he could return to a front-end spot in the rotation.

• It will be tough to know if and/or when Tarik Skubal will return next season.

It still isn’t clear when Skubal can expect to a return to a big league mound, but he recently updated Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press on his status. The southpaw tells Petzold he’s currently building arm strength in physical therapy and has a follow-up meeting with his surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, in December. Skubal indicated he hopes he’ll be able to begin a throwing program by January if all goes well. While he declined to specify any sort of timeline for game action, he confirmed he’s likely to pitch at some point during the 2023 season.

It seems questionable whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day, however. That’s hardly a surprise, as flexor repairs are a notable procedure in their own right. Former Tiger southpaw Matthew Boyd underwent a flexor repair last September; he didn’t return from the injured list until 11 months later. Danny Duffy had the procedure in October 2021 and has missed the entire 2022 season after suffering a setback in August. That’s not to say Skubal is certain to face the same recovery timetable, but it’s illustrative of the fact that rehabbing from these procedures is no simple matter.

• Matt Manning is getting a second opinion on his forearm injury.

The third, Matt Manning, was scratched from his final start of the season with what the club called a forearm strain. Manager A.J. Hinch downplayed the issue at the time, saying the team shut him down out of an abundance of caution. However, Petzold now reports that Manning is soon to head for a second opinion with Dr. Keith Meister.

To be clear, there’s no indication that Manning is facing surgery at this point. Doctors may just be keeping a close eye on the highly-touted 24-year-old. Still, Petzold writes it’s possible Manning won’t be healthy for Opening Day (although that by no means appears certain yet).

Uh … why? Is his elbow messed up?

White Sox

• Michael Kopech’s knee might have bothered him after June 12th.

Michael Kopech slamming a baseball into the infield grass in frustration as he walked off the mound on June 12, favoring a sore right knee, provided a clear line of demarcation for his first full season in the starting rotation. That separation was only made more stark by the 26-year-old undergoing surgery on a torn right meniscus in the final week of the season. While the procedure isn’t expected to significantly alter Kopech’s offseason, there’s plenty of indicators of how his right knee affected his 2022 season.

After his start on the 12th, he had a 1.92 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, and a 95.7 average fastball velocity. After that point a 4.79 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and a 94.5 mph average fastball velocity.

• Davis Martin has done enough to be considered for the rotation.

Davis Martin’s season ended with bicep soreness as his 140 1/3 total innings neared a professional career-high, and with a 4.83 ERA due to a trainwreck outing in the season finale. Since he still has minor league options, he would be an ideal fit for the always-necessary role of sixth starter who remains available in Charlotte when needed. But Martin did all he could to ensure he will be in Chicago for much of the 2023 season.

“He’s done everything to put himself in a position as a future starter,” said Katz. “He has outstanding weapons too.”

• Eloy Jiménez is in line to be the DH next season to help his knees.

So let’s look at Eloy Jiménez, who figured out a routine for success at designated hitter despite having less than a strong desire to move into that role at age 25. Jiménez’s move to DH was brought about to protect his legs after he returned from right knee surgery, and he could move back to left field at least part time in 2023.

I could see a Yordan Alvarez situation where he is the DH two-thirds of the time and in the outfield for the other third.

• AJ Pollock admitted to having problems with fastballs.

“There’s a lot of stuff that I just didn’t have,” Pollock said. “I wasn’t hitting fastballs like I usually do. Trying to figure that part out. If you’re not hitting the fastball, a lot more chase is going to come into play because you’re going to be trying to cheat to get to some stuff and I think that happened a lot this year. I just didn’t have quite the answer to get that back on track, but it feels it feels like I’m in a better spot (during the) second half of the year.”

Wow, fastballs ate him up. His four-seam contact rate dropped from 89% to a career-low 79%. Additionally, his swinging-strike rate doubled from 6% to 12%. He was right that his swing-and-miss got better but it wasn’t great.

National League

Cubs

• Nico Hoerner will likely move to second base next season.

Hoerner is a perceptive player, so he already saw this coming, but it sounds like Hoyer already prepared him for the possibility of switching positions next season. Moving off shortstop would be even easier with a long-term contract.

…
Again, Hoyer doesn’t foresee any issues if Hoerner goes back to being a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman.

He didn’t play any games at second base last season and will just be shortstop-qualified next year.

• Matt Mervis could be the first baseman.

If the Cubs are aggressive in other areas as expected, prospect Matt Mervis should come into spring training with a chance to win the position. Mervis broke out in the minors this season, posting a 156 wRC+ across three levels. The lefty masher is 24 and has proven himself at all levels.

He hit .309/.379/.606 with 36 HR and 2 SB across three minor league levels.

One “concern” with Mervis is that he struggles against lefties.

One concern some had with Mervis was his performance against lefties. According to Cubs internal data, he did well in High-A, but by June, in Double A, he struggled, posting a .286 wOBA. But as was the case with nearly every other aspect of his game, Mervis slowly but surely grew in this area. By July (he was promoted to Triple A late in the month), that wOBA was up to .300, still low, but clearly on the uptick. In August, he only had 17 plate appearances against lefties, but his wOBA jumped to an above-average .360. By September, it all seemed to click. He had 43 plate appearances against lefties and delivered a robust .437 wOBA. In the AFL, Mervis has already slugged a homer. It came off a southpaw.

Last season across all minor league levels, he had a .869 OPS and 25% K% against lefties and a 1.039 OPS and 15% K% against righties. I’m not sure he struggles against lefties as much as crushes righties.

• Centerfield is the only unclaimed outfield spot meaning Christopher Morel is out and will be filled by a free agent or Brennen Davis.

“Talking to a lot of these outfielders, left and right are taken,” Ross said. “It’s pretty simple, there’s an open spot in center field. That’s where I’d put in my work, that’s where I’d try to get better.”

That seems to be a message to players like Christopher Morel (who struggled with an 82 wRC+ and 34.2 percent strikeout rate in the second half) and Nelson Velázquez, neither of whom measure well in the advanced metrics defensively in center. Perhaps it’s even a nod to minor-leaguers Brennen Davis or Alexander Canario. Ross noted there are quite a few righties who are putting up numbers in the minors for the Cubs and those two fit the mold. But Davis, who is currently performing quite well early in the Arizona Fall League, played in just 15 Triple-A games this year. It was originally believed that Davis would make his big-league debut this season, but a procedure on his back led to him missing the vast majority of the season. That led to Ross sounding doubtful that a surprise arrival on Opening Day for Davis was possible “given the adversity he’s been through.”

Giants

• Thairo Estrada will play all over the field next season.

Estrada made most of his starts at second base this season, but the Giants believe he’s capable of moving around the infield and outfield and possibly taking on more of a super-utility role in 2023.

• Anthony DeSclafani should be in the rotation, Jakob Junis be a swingman, and Kyle Harrison should eventually join the rotation.

DeSclafani made only five starts for the Giants this year before undergoing season-ending right ankle surgery in July, but he’s expected to rejoin Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and Alex Wood in the starting rotation in 2023. Zaidi said Jakob Junis would ideally be used as a swingman, allowing the Giants to add at least one starting pitcher this offseason.

Even if Rodón departs, the Giants have another electric lefty coming up in Kyle Harrison, who is ranked the club’s No. 2 prospect by MLB Pipeline. Harrison, 21, is expected to open the season at Triple-A Sacramento, but he could debut in San Francisco’s rotation sooner rather than later.

Nationals

• Carter Kieboom will compete with Ildemaro Vargas for the starting third base job.

Mike Rizzo just finished his season-ending scrum. Nothing immediately newsworthy from the session, though he did call Stephen Strasburg’s 2023 “a mystery” (which we knew) and said he expects Carter Kieboom to compete for the 3B job in spring training (which we could figure).

— Jesse Dougherty (@dougherty_jesse) October 4, 2022

Pirates

• Cal Mitchell might move to first base.

Outlook: Shelton said management this winter will consider moving Mitchell to first base. He seemed a little lost at times in the outfield, so a position change might provide some kind of spark.

• Ke’Bryan Hayes hasn’t been healthy for a couple of seasons.

Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who revealed he’s been nagged all season by a persistent back injury, went 0-for-3 and left the game after five innings.

…

About a month before spring training, Hayes tweaked his hip while lifting weights. That injury lingered into spring training, then led to nagging back pain.

“More than anything, it affected me swinging sometimes, just because of my whole left side being tight,” said Hayes, who batted .244/.314/.345 with seven home runs.

Hayes told the Pirates about his injury before the season began. Shelton and the medical staff tried to manage it by giving Hayes extra off days.

“Really, 2020 was the last time I felt normal,” said Hayes, who battled wrist injuries last year. “I want to figure out this back thing (this winter) and get back in the weight room, put on some size and get back to where I was in 2018 and 2019, maintaining my mobility and speed.”

• Here is a nice writeup by Jayson Stark on the possible implications of the rule changes. I can’t post the entire article but I recommend reading it all to get a base understanding of projected changes. There will be a ton more to come on this subject over the Winter.

So here we are, a week or so after baseball announced its three most tide-shifting rule changes in almost half a century — pitch clock, shift limits and bases the size of the tires on your Honda. And now here’s the safest prediction I’ve ever made:

Stuff…will…happen.

American League

Angels

• Jared Walsh got Thoracic Outlet Surgery from an injury he dealt with since his days pitching.

But Walsh struggled offensively, hitting .215/.269/.374 with 15 homers and 44 RBIs in 118 games before being shut down with thoracic outlet syndrome on Aug. 24.

Walsh, who underwent season-ending surgery on Sept. 1, spoke to the media on Friday about his operation and what to expect going forward. Walsh said the injury occurred a few years ago but worsened this season. He believes he might have injured himself pitching when the Angels experimented with him being a two-way player in 2019, saying it caused tightness in his neck and left shoulder. But the good news is that he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training next year.

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Rangers

• Nathaniel Lowe has decided to swing at better pitches.

“Just committing to better pitches,” he said. “Offense as a whole is trending in such a direction where it’s like, such a visual thing, as far as ‘Does my swing look good?’ But the real one true answer is ‘Does your swing produce?’ And if you get good pitches to hit, are you doing what you’re supposed to do with good pitches to hit? I think that I’ve finally found a space where I can just commit to that.

OK, that gives us a place to start. What has Lowe done with pitches in the strike zone? It’s interesting to think back to spring training — remember when he simply wasn’t swinging at any pitches, choosing instead to track them for the first few games of Cactus League play? It felt weird to everyone, including his manager. It turns out that strategy was more like a big cat stalking its prey. Somewhere after Opening Day, Lowe — as he said above — started committing to (see: “swinging at”) better pitches.

His Swing% is up from 45% to 52% and his .855 OPS is a career-best. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Tucker Davidson has added a changeup.

Davidson threw his slider 35 times, getting seven swings and misses with the pitch, while also throwing his four-seamer 35 times and getting one whiff. But he did locate his four-seamer for seven called strikes to help him get ahead in counts. He also mixed in six changeups, which is a pitch he’s been working on with Wise.

“He had his slider and landed a couple good changeups,” interim manager Phil Nevin said. “He’s really been working on that changeup with Wiser, who is terrific at teaching that pitch. He threw some really good ones today. It’s more of a look [for the hitters] and it’s in their head now.”

José Suarez is working on a second changeup.

Suarez started working on his new changeup earlier this year at the suggestion of Angels pitching coach Matt Wise, who helped Suarez figure out a grip that allows the new changeup to move differently than the old one.

“It helps me a lot because they have two different movements,” Suarez said via interpreter Manny Del Campo. “My old one is more like a fastball, and this one has more movement.”

Added Nevin: “You can throw one for strikes, and the other one’s kind of more of a chase pitch. Good hitters taking the swings that they are off of it — it’s pretty impressive.”

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Orioles

• Many of the starters will be on innings limits including Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, and Kyle Bradish.

Hall isn’t the only starting pitcher who will be on an innings leash in the second half. The Orioles want to do the same thing with Tyler Wells and also will be watching Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hall is piggybacked with one of those guys once he is promoted.

This philosophy may change if the Orioles get closer to the wild-card race, but Elias has said repeatedly that 2022 is designed to put his inexperienced starters in a position to not have any major limitations next year. And that means nursing them along through the full season this year with a manageable workload.

Rangers

• Elier Hernandez has reworked his stance prior to his promotion.

This season, however, has been a revelation. Hernández says that — among other adjustments — he altered his stance, changing the position of his right foot. The results? A .910 OPS with just 45 strikeouts and 20 walks in 62 games.

The main difference from his 2021 and 2022 AAA stats is his strikeout rate dropping from 30% K% to 20% K%.

Tigers

• While in AAA Akil Baddoo has been working on his swing.

And it took some time for the swing to click. Baddoo worked on a number of small adjustments in Toledo. He’s holding his hands further back in his setup. He ditched a leg kick he implemented over the offseason. The Tigers wanted Baddoo to get back to his contact-oriented ways, but they also wanted him to smooth out what can sometimes be a choppy swing, too.

Twins

• The linked article goes over the various scenarios that might happen when Miguel Sanó comes off the IL. Here is one:

We’re about to see this situation come to a head in the next few days, because the 20-day window for Sanó’s minor-league rehab assignment is almost closed. Once his rehab assignment ends, the Twins will have to clear room for him on the active roster or say goodbye, via trade, waivers or outright release. I believe there’s a decent chance we’ve seen the last of Sanó in a Twins uniform.

• When Kenta Maeda returns from the IL, he will head to the bullpen.

Maeda’s comeback from elbow surgery has advanced to throwing fastballs off a mound and he recently clocked in at 85 mph, so everything is going according to plan thus far. It sounds like he’s aiming for a September return, with a relief role the most likely goal considering how much more time it would take him to build back up to a starter’s workload.

National League

Brewers

Christian Yelich will continue to have back problems.

On his back:

“Yeah, I was doing a better job of staying on the field. Obviously, I’ve had to manage this thing over the years. It’s frustrating when it pops up. We kept it in a pretty good place, stayed on it. I was just kind of getting loose, and it decided that that was enough. It just kind of tightened up, and I could feel it grab and go, and once that happens, it’s a wrap. It’s a different spot than it usually is, though, which is good. So I don’t think this one will be a long time by any means, which is good news. Not like last year.”

Padres

• MacKenzie Gore’s workload will be limited and he’ll eventually move to the bullpen.

Already this season, the Padres have managed to limit Gore’s workload to the point where he’s pitched only 68 1/3 big league innings (in addition to five in the Minors). That should line him up to be very available in the second half.
…
As such, Gore will continue as a starter after the break. But at some point, his workload will be limited. If the Padres want to make sure he’s available for the stretch run, his best path might be a relief role. Some in the organization wonder whether Gore might even become something of a late-season relief ace, with his stuff playing up in short bursts.

Phillies

• Jean Segura is hoping to come off the IL earlier than expected but not at 100%.

Segura broke his right index finger on May 31 and had surgery on June 3. The Phillies said then that he would miss 10-12 weeks. The 10-week mark is August 12, which means he is nearly five weeks into his recovery. But Segura said Wednesday that he plans to beat his original timeline and rejoin the Phils’ lineup earlier than expected.

“I’m not letting this thing go 10 to 12 weeks,” he said. “I don’t think that’s going to happen. As soon as I feel I can grip the bat and take a couple of swings …”

…

So he really thinks he could be back before 10 weeks?

“The way we look right now, probably,” Segura said. “I still have a couple of tests — gripping the ball, throwing, hitting. So if everything goes well in the next couple of weeks, we might. … I’ve been doing some aggressive therapy. Getting it moving. The more I move it, the quicker it will heal, and I’ll get mobility. When mobility is 70 to 80 percent, I think that’s enough for me to play.”

• In my last Sunday night chat, someone asked about swinging strike benchmarks and all I had was an article from 2014.

Eno Sarris has updated the values and to no one’s surprise, the benchmarks have increased.

• I’ve been thinking about starting pitcher sample size, specifically, how many starts does a pitcher need to own a new skill set. Using three sources, the number is three to four starts.

1. Eno Sarris makes another appearance with his Stuff+ stabilizing around 300-400 pitches (3-4 games).

Pitching plus beats projections for relievers on predictive power (RMSE) before season begins.
Pitching plus beats preseason projections on predictive power (RMSE) 300-400 pitches into the season.
Stuff plus stabilizes (cronbach’s alpha) before any results metric (to be pubbed).

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) May 16, 2022

2. Next, FreezeStats took our stabilization points and converted them to average innings thrown. Here are the values that are the most telling to me with the number of games assuming 6 IP per start.

• Strikeout rate: 17 IP (3 starts)
• Walk rate: 45 IP (7 starts)
• Groundball rate: 24.5 IP (4 starts)
• Launch angle: 16.4 IP (3 starts)

The walk rate is a little higher than I’d like but the other three values stabilize in three to four games.

3. Finally, here is some work I did years ago but is still applicable. Pitchers need about three starts for their fastball velocity to stabilize.

Every metric, but walks, point to pitcher stats stabilizing in three to four starts. No stat website has just the last four games available, it’s intervals like two weeks or month. Two weeks encompasses two to three starts while a month could be from four to six starts. The sweet spot would be 21 days.

Just looking through the linked list, some pitchers who stand out are:

Name: SIERA

• Dane Dunning: 4.58
• Luis Castillo: 4.55
• Frankie Montas: 4.32
• José Quintana: 3.97
• Zach Davies: 3.78
• Graham Ashcraft: 3.68
• Beau Brieske: 3.60
• Charlie Morton: 1.95

American League

Mariners

• Ken Giles’s fastball averaged under 95 mph in his last appearance. When he was dominant from 2015 to 2019, his fastball averaged 97 to 98 mph. When he last pitched in 2020, it was down at 94 mph and he had control issues (9.8 BB/9). He’s had the same control issues in his rehab starts (7.7 BB/9 in A+, 10.8 BB/9 in AAA). He didn’t walk anyone in the appearance, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

Red Sox

• Jackie Bradley Jr. had his eyesight corrected.

“Seeing is very vital to this game so I think there could be a correlation where I’m making more contact and not fouling off as many balls as I had been, and my strikeout rate has gone down,” he said. “I don’t know when it came about or how long I had it, though.”

On the season Bradley is hitting .233 with a .616 OPS, up from an abysmal .163 and .497 OPS in 134 games for Milwaukee last year. This year, he’s striking out 20.6 percent of the time, well below his 25.6 percent career average. At Fenway, he’s hitting .313 with an .832 OPS over 31 games with 11 doubles, a triple, a homer and 15 RBI. He can’t explain the home-road splits as he’s hitting just .151 with .393 OPS in 29 road games, but he’s working on it.

With 20/15 vision, Bradley wears the contact in his right eye only during games. It was hard to get used to at first during cold and windy April games. He’s still getting used to the feel of it and prefers to wear a pair of plastic sports eyeglasses during batting practice. But after those first few weeks, there was a clear improvement. His April OPS was .458, consistent with his awful 2021, but since the start of May he’s been at a .700 mark, exactly in line with his career average.

Twins

• Bryon Buxton will likely get half of as many at-bats going forward.

Byron Buxton was out of the starting lineup for a second straight game in Thursday’s series finale against the Guardians with a continued flare-up in the tendinitis in his right knee that makes it too painful for him to swing and run. Despite that, the Twins maintained that there are no plans for their center fielder to go on the injured list.

Buxton had also missed Wednesday’s 11-10 loss to Cleveland with the chronic knee pain and swelling, which the Twins had been managing day to day since the start of the season. The club will continue to do so, with the hope that Buxton’s knee will improve enough for him to play within one or two days.

“He’s done an admirable job and he’s going to continue to do an admirable job going forward dealing with this,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “But, like I said, when you literally cannot swing or run, you can’t play the game. And there have been other days this year, earlier in the season, where he couldn’t do those things and he doesn’t play those days. And there are other days where we have to get him a day off his feet so it doesn’t get to the point where we’re talking like this.”

Why not place Buxton on the IL, then? Baldelli said there’s no guarantee that would even resolve the issue. What the Twins don’t want is for Buxton to have to miss a sizeable chunk of games and then be right back where they started within a matter of days upon his return.

This sucks. His managers will have no idea when he’ll start every week. And the pain has got to affect his performance when he is batting. He’s too good to drop but not playing enough to start.

White Sox

• Lucas Giolito is working on fixing his fastball.

“We’re working on his fastball,” pitching coach Ethan Katz said in Houston. “Some of the stuff we saw on film and in its behavior was not his norm. It was kind of dipping below his vertical (movement), and the cutting was not the same straight pitch that he has had. We really wanted to dig into that and make sure the vertical was there.”

National League

Giants

• In Anthony DeSclafani’s first start off the IL, he averaged 93.4 mph with his fastball. That value is up from his first three starts (92.9 mph) but down from his 2021 value (94.1 mph). With pitching so thin, I think those managers with bench space must roster him but I can understand not starting him.

Marlins

• Avisaíl García has been playing all banged up.

Like pretty much every ballplayer, García is banged up. He has dealt with hand inflammation and knee soreness. He was hit by a pitch over the weekend in New York.

He’s not universally rostered so if he starts to trend upward, it might be a sign that he’s healthy and worth buying back in.

• Here is my latest Voit-Muncy player list that points out under the radar AAA hitters who are above average in strikeout rate, walk rate, flyball rate, and isolated power.

• Alex Bregman says he has different swings for different pitches.

Laurila: You brought up swings when we chatted informally yesterday. How many do you have?

Bregman: “I think you’ve got to have a lot of different swings if you want to be able to cover every pitch. I don’t think you can cover an elite four-seamer up in the zone and an elite sinker down in the zone with the same swing, You have to either make an eye adjustment on where you’re trying to swing, or you need to have a swing adjustment on how you’re trying to hit that pitch. The [bat] path you take is going to be different for those two pitches.”

I’m not sure if this information is actionable, but maybe it’s possible to eventually figure out if a hitter has different hot zones (i.e. different swings) and them how having more swings is helpful.

American League

Athletics

• Cristian Pache is trying to raise his launch angle.

So what might be causing Pache such poor luck? One key factor is his launch angle. Among qualified Major League hitters, Pache’s average launch angle of 3.5 degrees ranks 11th lowest in MLB (minimum 75 plate appearances). This means that despite the hard contact, he’s frequently hitting the ball on the ground.

How does one correct this flaw? Everidge says it should be an easier fix for Pache now that he’s increasingly started directing his balls in play to center and right field. The last piece of the puzzle is to get more lift on his swings, something the two have been working on constantly over the past couple of weeks through extra pregame work in the hitting cage.

Mariners

• Robbie Ray just reintroduced his sinker.

At Minute Maid Park, arguably the most hitter-friendly venue in the Majors, walks prove costly because the threat of a multi-run homer constantly looms. So Ray opted for a “new look” when he returned for the third inning. He dropped in a few changeups and curveballs, but the more notable selection was for a two-seam fastball (also classified as a sinker), which he completely replaced his four-seamer with the rest of the way.

The sinker has gotten poor results with a 38% GB% and 4% SwStr%.

• Kyle Lewis will get many off days when he’s on the roster.

Sunday’s decision, per manager Scott Servais, was the result of a combination of factors — it was a day game after a late night game, a cross-country trip to Baltimore loomed and an off-day on Monday would allow Lewis two full days of rest. But it also underscored that the Mariners will be easing up on the gas pedal with the slugger periodically, at least for now.
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On their planned days off, players typically don’t take part in a pregame routine and don’t stay warmed up throughout the game. In that context, the Mariners calling on Lewis in a pinch would have gone completely against the long-term plan that the team had mapped out with him. That much was clear when, twice asked about the decision following the game, Servais reiterated that “Kyle was not available today.”

Orioles

• Tyler Wells will have games when he doesn’t throw as many pitches.

Since Wells threw 88 pitches in six innings on May 30 and 77 pitches and five innings on May 25, Saturday’s outing was gonna be pre-empted. In fact, the Orioles decided pregame they’d pull Wells around the 65-pitch range.

“That was the plan going into the game,” Hyde said. “He was throwing the ball well. He did have two walks during the fourth inning. But with an extra day of rest also here coming up, we’re always gonna side with caution with him this year. … This was gonna be a day of a shortened outing.”

• Bruce Zimmermann needs to place his changeup low in the zone. Also, he thought he was tipping his pitches in his last start.

“I think the only time I’m getting hurt with that changeup is when it’s up in the zone, which it’s been a little bit more up as of late,” Zimmermann said. “The back half of this outing, I was able to establish it at the bottom of the zone and through the bottom of the zone, and able to play that one-seam [sinker] off of that. … I kind of wish I had done that from the get-go today.”

“The changeup didn’t have the depth that it had earlier in the season,” Hyde added. “Something to work on, but I thought he did pitch better as the game went on.”

Zimmermann will also take Friday with a grain of salt. Following his last two outings in New York and Boston, during which he allowed nine home runs, Zimmermann met with the Orioles’ pitching brain trust, fearing that he was tipping something off the mound. That resulted in a different delivery on Friday evening — something Zimmermann will continue to work with, knowing it’s difficult to implement such a stark change in one go.

Rangers

• Whenever Leody Taveras gets promoted, it’ll be permanently.

“Leody (Taveras) was probably the other option that got the most consideration,” president of baseball operations Jon Daniels said on Sunday. “Actually, at the time we were having the discussion — we made the decision to bring Steele in the night before last and we weren’t sure Josh Smith was going to be on the IL yet at that point. So (Zach) Reks wasn’t even really an option without an IL (placement). I think with Leody — and we’ve communicated this to him — he’s really close. When we go get him, we want it to be, ideally, for the last time and have him up here for good.”

Royals

• Jackson Kowar reworked his fastball.

Kowar threw 36 fastballs in his one big-league outing this season. They averaged 95.6 mph, but hitters batted .600 and slugged 1.200 against them because they essentially dropped and moved arm side almost an equal amount. The more vertical spin compared with sidespin for Kowar’s four-seamer, the more effectiveness his fastball pitch will have, especially against lefties. And the more Kowar could execute effective fastballs in different counts, the better his entire repertoire would be.

“My room for error, for sure, goes up (with the different movement on the fastball),” Kowar said. “As well as, to get to that tilt, my delivery gets to be more linear, which is something I’ve always fought anyway. It’s kind of a two-for-one, which is what I think sold me on it initially.”

Tigers

• Javier Báez is struggling with sliders away.

In fact, Detroit signed Báez this offseason thinking he could take the Tigers to the next level. But entering Sunday’s action, he is hitting .190 with three home runs and 13 RBIs. Opposing pitchers have thrown a steady diet of sliders his way, and he is swinging at that pitch.

“I think we are all frustrated,” Hinch said. “The lack of recognition and swinging outside the strike zone is part of what [Báez] has done. It begs for some adjustments [at the plate]. We want better for him. He wants better for himself. We have to get inside the strike zone because the league is obviously going to continue to tease him around the strike zone until he adjusts.”

He’s seen more sliders (35%) than any other pitch and has a 34% SwStr% (26% in 2021) against them. And it’s just that one spot.

Twins

• Devin Smeltzer finally got a neck injury fixed.

“It was almost a sigh of relief,” Smeltzer said. “It gave me answers on why I was feeling the way I was feeling. The way the neck doctor explained it was I would have kept rehabbing my elbow over and over again until my neck finally presented itself because my arm was never hurt. It was because of the neck. Once that came out, we were able to just attack it, rehab it, do what I needed to do to get ready. Then velo came back, feel came back, everything came back.”

National League

Brewers

• Christian Yelich has struggled with inside fastballs.

It was just a few weeks ago when some wondered if Yelich was turning a corner. It’s a reminder that as rough as things have looked recently, he certainly may have more hot streaks in him. But pitchers have succeeded against Yelich by pounding him inside with fastballs. He has struggled against velocity, and he’s been unable to get the barrel of the bat on fastballs. Moving him down the order may not be much of a solution.

Yelich is not struggling against fastballs, but he’s not been his dominant self. Here are his vs OPS+ over the years on fastballs.

Season: vsOPS+
2013: 148
2014: 184
2015: 171
2016: 151
2017: 186
2018: 209
2019: 213
2020: 216
2021: 118
2022: 144

He’s still way off his peak values and might not recover.

• Lorenzo Cain was going to lose playing time before Hunter Renfroe got hurt.

“Mentally, honestly, I don’t know what to do up there right now,” Cain said on Friday. “My swing is kind of all over the place. I haven’t been able to figure things out. They already told me before [right fielder Hunter] Renfroe got hurt that my playing time was probably going to be a lot less. But Renfroe got hurt, so I’ve had to get in there probably more than they want me to right now.
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Cain said the word about his planned drop in playing time came from manager Craig Counsell in a conversation several days before the start of the Brewers’ last marathon road trip. But in the first game of that trip, Renfroe strained his right hamstring scoring from first base on a double and landed on the 10-day injured list the next day. Renfroe has been in rehab mode since then and lately has been hitting and running on the field.

I don’t expect him to play much into the future.

Cubs

• Scouts don’t think Nick Madrigal at the strength to be a major league hitter.

Scouts who have watched Madrigal of late pointed out that opponents are “shrinking” the field on him, and perhaps he’s finally reached a level of the game where he’s just not big enough. Through 110 plate appearances this season, Madrigal has just two extra-base hits (both doubles) and a .029 ISO. For batters with at least 100 plate appearances this year, only Tucker Barnhardt has a lower ISO.

One scout who had always been high on Madrigal wondered if he was just flat-out being overpowered. That was never the case for him in the past when he was on Team USA in high school or playing in the Pac-12 in college. Madrigal always looked like he belonged and often thrived against high-level competition. Now he’s struggling to hit the ball with authority and at times doesn’t seem confident at the plate. He continues to say all the right things, but a significant injury followed by extreme struggles can’t be easy to take.

It’s not a good sign when defenses treat you like a pitcher.

Mets

• Dominic Smith played through a shoulder tear last season.

Smith told SI.com in March that he played through a small tear of the labrum in his right shoulder last year, and it’s certainly possible there are (or were) some lingering effects of that issue.

Pirates

• Mitch Keller has been throwing Clay Holmes’s sinker.

When I talked with Mitch Keller a few days ago about pitches he’d like to steal from other pitchers — look for that story Friday, by the way — he mentioned that Yankees sensation (and former Pirates reliever) Clay Holmes has helped polish Keller’s new sinker.

“Clay and I are friends, so I texted him for a couple of days about it,” Keller said. “He’s helped me with different finger placements to make my sinker move more. Clay’s very smart about the analytics of baseball and pitch design, and he was pretty open about it with me.”

Keller unveiled his sinker in his May 31 start against the Dodgers. It figures to play a bigger role in his arsenal over the rest of the season.

He’s used the sinker for three games and has an 8.8 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 55% GB%, 2.51 ERA, and 4.37 xFIP during that time.

Reds

• Graham Ashcraft is getting more spin on his slider.

After getting Robles looking, Ashcraft spun from the mound and pumped his fist with excitement. According to Statcast, the slider’s spin rate averaged 2,790 rpm, higher than his average of 2,678 and much higher than the league average of 2,403. It averaged 86.5 mph.

“That’s something we’ve been trying to work on over the last couple bullpens,” Ashcraft said. “We just made a quick, small, little tweak on it, keep your hand back and not try to get your fingers off the ball. That made it hard to hit.”

Where possible, I think Ashcraft is a must roster to see where his talent level stabilizes.

General

• Yusei Kikuchi was targeted because his fastball velocity was high for a left-handed pitcher.

Kikuchi’s fastball was one of the main draws for the Blue Jays when they signed him, though. A right-hander who averages 95 mph and reaches up to 97 doesn’t raise as many eyebrows, but a starter doing that from the left side certainly does. Kikuchi’s average four-seam fastball velocity ranks him sixth among left-handed MLB starters (min. 25 pitches), and as he continues to see the results, it’s becoming a pitch he wants to throw more and more.

When it comes to fastball effectiveness, I’ve never divided lefties and righties. It’s something I’ll consider in the future. Read the rest of this entry »