This past weekend, I was in Phoenix for Baseball HQ’s First Pitch forum. It’s an intensive few days of catching up with old friends and focusing on the upcoming fantasy baseball season. There was an underlying theme of the weekend, the fantasy baseball game is being forced to change. Some game facets have experienced some massive adjustments. The following are some of the meta-trends which have quickly popped up over the past few seasons.

Home runs are way up

A few days ago I wrote the following incorrect statement about Carlos Martinez for a 2018 player preview.

His 1.19 HR/9 will likely drop back below the league average.

It was pointed out to me, his home run rate was below league average. I was for sure it was not near 1.20 but I was wrong. Here are the recent league-wide HR/9 values.

2014: 0.86
2015: 1.02
2016: 1.17
2017: 1.27

I remember when the HR/9 hovered around 1.0. Not anymore. Some other pitching stats are feeling the effects of the jump like ERA, but the root cause is more home runs.

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The season seems to never end for fantasy baseball writers. Once the regular season is over, it’s time to begin writing player previews for the next season. Pitchers who’ve had their strikeout (K% and K/9) and walk rates change in different directions spin me for a loop. Now, I query these schizophrenic pitchers to start the preseason previews. I’ll give a quick look at some of these pitchers. I’ll start with those pitchers who’ve seen their K% (strikeout per batter faced) drop while K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) increase.

Two reasons exist for why the rates diverge. The key for both is increasing the number of plate appearances per innings. More plate appearances lead to their K% dropping if the strikeouts remain constant per inning. The other factor is how many hits a pitcher allows (basically BABIP). If a pitcher had good luck on balls in play and recorded more outs, they could quickly get through an inning and thereby raise their K%. Once the BABIP normalizes, the K% will drop.
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Here’s everything you need to know about an unusually quiet weekend of bullpen activity around the major leagues:

Jeurys Familia has been moved back to the closer position on the grid for the Mets. A.J. Ramos has struggled as of late, and it was always assumed that Familia would at some point find his way back to the ninth inning for New York. Familia picked up his first save since May 5 on Friday (pitching 1/3 of an inning), then the following day he pitched a scoreless ninth in a tie game at home, as closers often do. Familia’s track record and projections indicate that he should have no problem being a very good closer again. He induces a ton of ground balls and limits the home run ball very well. Meanwhile, Ramos’s days as a must-own fantasy asset may be over if Familia has indeed regained the role of closer. Ramos could still have some value in holds leagues, but there are better options out there. Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday, with the Royals leading by one over the Indians, Ryan Buchter pitched a scoreless sixth (with one strikeout), Trevor Cahill pitched a scoreless seventh and eighth (walking three), and it was Mike Minor who pitched a scoreless ninth with three strikeouts to earn his first save of the season.

The first two batters due up in the ninth for the Indians were right handed, and the next two were switch hitters, so the lefty Minor’s appearance in the ninth didn’t appear to be a matchup-based save opportunity. With Kelvin Herrera‘s struggles and Brandon Maurer’s difficulties with runners on base, there’s opportunity for fresh blood in the ninth, and it could very well be Minor who gets the most save chances down the stretch. He’s probably worth an add for those desperate for last-minute relief help. Read the rest of this entry »

Another exciting weekend of bullpen activity around the major leagues…

Kelvin Herrera is out as Royals closer, according to an ESPN report. Manager Ned Yost said the team will go with a closer-by-committee, utilizing Brandon Maurer, Mike Minor, or Scott Alexander to close games. Maurer picked up the save on Saturday, with Minor pitching 1.2 innings to bridge the gap from the starter to Maurer. As I mentioned in last weekend’s Report, Alexander may be the most intriguing of the bunch, but Yost seems to prefer Maurer because of his experience as a closer.

Shortly after being traded to the Cardinals, Juan Nicasio pitched 1.1 innings to earn the save against the Pirates on Friday. On Saturday, he struck out two and allowed one hit to pick up another save against the team that cut him loose earlier this month. Tyler Lyons pitched the eighth and John Brebbia pitched the seventh, so that’s the order we’re rolling with on the grid. The Cardinals bullpen situation has been quite volatile since Trevor Rosenthal got hurt, so Nicasio could easily grab the closer role and run with it if he continues to pitch well. Read the rest of this entry »

• With Blake Treinen having pitched in back to back days, the A’s went to Chris Hatcher for the save opportunity and he picked up his first save in a perfect ninth on eight pitches. Santiago Casilla was also unavailable having a heavy work load of late but I still believe this helps secure Hatcher as the next in line in Oakland. Although Treinen was unavailable, he’s also put up L’s in his last three appearances. They haven’t been particularly bad outings and he’s been quite good on Oakland (2.60 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9) so his job is pretty safe but keep an eye on Hatcher if Treinen has an extended slump.

• Tyler Lyons threw a scoreless ninth for his second save, striking out two and also allowing two hits. We recently put Lyons atop of the closer grid and it looks like he will stay there for the time being although this situation could still be somewhat of a committee. John Brebbia got the hold in the eighth pitching a perfect inning and he could be moving up on the grid. Brebbia won’t maintain a .193 BABIP but Oh has been very up and down as Brebbia and even Ryan Sherriff are slowly gaining Mike Matheny’s trust.

• The Angels closer situation has been a non-impressive roller coaster thus far but Blake Parker appears to have a decent hold on the job. Ex-closer Bud Norris was activated from the DL and while I don’t expect him to replace Parker, I’ve added him to the grid behind Parker and Cam Bedrosian. As we have seen with their bullpen usage this season however, Keynan Middleton and Petit could also see higher leverage innings.

• Interesting news out of New York regarding the Yankees closer situation as Aroldis Chapman could return back to his familiar role. Dellin Betances has been struggling and the Yankees likely don’t intend to pay Chapman tens of millions to not close. Joe Girardi even said “I possibly would have closed with him tonight, probably, knowing that the other guys could probably use a day off” which doesn’t mean Chapman is the closer now, but I’ve moved him to second in line and made this situation red. Watch the Yankees very closely for both a fun end of season division battle, but more importantly to see who receives the next save opportunity.

Other Bullpen Activity

• Wade Davis struck out a pair for his 29th save. There’s been a few times given Davis’ injury history where a small struggle got me nervous, along with his elevated walk rate but he’s otherwise been solid all year helping ratios and racking up saves. The walks (up to 12.6% BB% from 9.1% last year) prevents him from entering the elite company but he of course remains a solid option moving forward this year.
• 13 wins in a row for The Daimondbacks and another arrow for Fernando Rodney as he got his 36th save. Archie Bradley threw a perfect eighth for his 21st hold and is the best option back there but Rodney’s hold is firm. Things might change in 2018 but for now expect Rodney to continue to get saves, especially if they keep playing the Dodgers.
• After being used more conventionally this summer as a setup man, Chris Devenski is back to his multi-inning ways, picking up the win tonight after getting four outs. With 8 wins, 4 saves, and 91 strikeouts on the year Devenski has been more valuable than many traditional closers. If he’s getting one-to-three outs he’s pretty good but when he’s getting used for longer outings he becomes pretty special.
• Arodys Vizcaino picked up his 10th save for the Braves in the second game of their double header against the Rangers. Alex Claudio didn’t receive a save opportunity for Texas but did get the last out for Texas in both games.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

On Friday, for the second time in 11 days, Kelvin Herrera was pulled from an existing ninth inning because of discomfort in his throwing arm. Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reported on Saturday that the Royals expect Herrera to be unavailable for at least three days because of what Dodd calls a “mild strain in the lower part of his right forearm.”

With Hererra still unavailable on Sunday, Scott Alexander struck out two in a scoreless inning (spanning the sixth and seventh), Peter Moylan retired the lone batter he faced in the seventh, Mike Minor walked two in a scoreless eighth, and Brandon Maurer worked around a leadoff two-base error and struck out one to secure his 21st save.

The Royals were blown out 17-0 on Saturday, so Sunday offered the only glimpse into their plan of attack with Herrera on the shelf. Herrera has not been very good season, so his job could be in jeopardy to some degree even if he comes back healthy in the next few days.

Alexander successfully converted the save both times Herrera had to depart mid-inning, and his numbers (2.24 ERA/3.33 FIP/3.12 xFIP) suggest he could enjoy continued success in the ninth if given the opportunity. Entering Sunday, he boasted a ridiculous 74.8 percent ground ball rate, a solid 20.5 percent strikeout rate, and an acceptable 9.6 percent walk rate in 45 appearances spanning 56.1 innings. Minor (2.86 ERA/2.71 FIP/3.60 xFIP in 66 innings) also seems like someone capable of closing out games. Read the rest of this entry »

Another messy outing for Greg Holland on Saturday. With a three-run lead in the ninth, he allowed two singles and a home run and was pulled with one out and the Rockies clinging to a one-run lead. Jake McGee was brought in to put out the fire, and he induced a game-ending double play.

After the game, when asked if he would continue to use Holland in save situations, Bud Black said, “Possibly. But maybe not. His next outing might be a closing situation. I can’t answer that right now. We haven’t definitively made that decision.”

On Sunday, again with a three-run lead, Black elected to use McGee to start the ninth, and he delivered a one-two-three inning. This, of course, looks like trouble for Holland and his fantasy owners.

In eight appearances dating back to August 6, Holland has faced 39 batters over 6.1 innings and has allowed 14 earned runs on four homers, 13 hits, and six walks while amassing just four strikeouts. His ERA has jumped from 1.56 to 4.05 over that span, which is a good reminder about the uselessness of past ERA as a predictor of future ERA, especially for relievers who pitch over tiny samples.

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• Andrew Miller left last night’s game and his knee tendinitis seems to be acting up again, causing a quick return to the DL. Joe Smith moves up a notch to the next-in-line and Bryan Shaw makes another return to the grid.  As far as saves go, this isn’t a major move as Cody Allen has been receiving most, if not all, of the save opportunities of late. However, there aren’t many setup men better than Andrew Miller so it’s naturally a big loss for those in holds leagues, duh. As we all saw in October, Cleveland used Miller quite a bit in the playoffs and with a five game lead in the division they have no reason to rush him back. There is no real timetable on Miller’s return but I wouldn’t rely on him pitching significant innings the rest of the year as the Indians prepare for him to be at his best in October again.

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• After getting the save in yesterday’s outing, Juan Minaya followed it up with another save today for the White Sox in the first half of a double header against the Twins. Minaya has converted the last three save opportunities he’s been handed and certainly looks to be the closer.  Minaya’s triple slash line of 4.50/4.57/4.26 doesn’t look too fancy but his 3.59 SIERA and 30.5% K% paints a more palatable picture. Not many saves to be expected for the rest of the season here, but I’m upgrading Minaya to yellow.

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