Today, I am going to take a look at the fastball speeds and other traits for three pitchers returning from the DL.
• Sean Marshall’s velocity is down almost 2 MPH from 2012 (90.8 to 89.0 mph) after returning from the DL for shoulder discomfort.
Today, I am going to take a look at players returning from appendectomy surgery and the injury chances for a couple of struggling pitchers, Matt Cain and Gio Gonzalez.
• Jason Heyward is headed to the DL for having an appendectomy. A couple of years ago, I looked at how players performed after going on the DL for the surgery. I found Heyward owners “should expect him to miss around ~30 days … and his production should not suffer once he returns”.
Today, I am going to look at a few pitchers with possible injury issues along with the fastball velocities of two pitchers returning from the DL.
• Early in the preseason, I marked Alexi Ogando as a possible injury risk. Besides his last start, when he didn’t make it past the 3rd inning, he as started the season good with a 3.32 ERA and 2.7 K/BB. Some initial signs I pointed out in the article still exist though. He velocity is down to 93 mph after throwing over 95 mph in 2011 when he also was a starter.
Also, he is having problems finding the plate with a 46.6% Zone%. I think he is still adjusting to being a starter and I look for him to hopefully improve to help erase the injury concerns.
From now on I am not going to look at individuals heading to and from the DL, but a more detailed look if an injury is affecting a player with the MASH Report. If any reader wants an opinion on a player, let me know. I am going to start by looking at a request from KMen in yesterday’s Roto Riteup.
Question 1:
Mat Latos has decreased velocity from 93 to 91mph over first 3 starts. Apparently velocity is pretty much stabilized after 3 starts, so that’s a significant drop. However, his SwStr% is just as good as always, and he’s definitely still getting the results (off to best start in his career). What do we make off all of this?
Sorry for the one day delay. I had some html issues which caused the injury status links to be broken. I have gone to new format which will hopefully solve the issue, but I took me a while to find a solution.
Also, I will be changing the format a bit. I am wanting to do more in-depth looks at players returning and players possibly headed to the disabled list. More on the changes in the next report.
Recent injury data
• Zack Greinke broke his collarbone in a fight and reports have him returning in a couple of months. I looked through my injury database going back to 2002 and I could only find one instance of a broken collarbone for a reference and it was Clint Barnes in 2005. Clint broke it while carrying a deer up his stairs. Broken collarbone = good story.
Recent injury data
• Matt Harrison was placed on the DL because of continuing back discomfort. He displayed several signs of injury with his Zone% going from 51.3% in 2012 to 41.3% in 2013. Also, his fastball velocity went from 92.1 mph to 91.2 mph over the same time frame. The more I follow injuries, a low Zone% is more of an indicator or injuries than loss of velocity. Here are the current starter laggards in Zone% (min. 2 starts).
| Name | Team | Zone% |
| Lucas Harrell | Astros | 38.9 % |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies | 40.0 % |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 40.2 % |
| Alex Sanabia | Marlins | 40.2 % |
| Matt Harrison | Rangers | 41.3 % |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 41.5 % |
| Ryan Dempster | Red Sox | 41.8 % |
| Rick Porcello | Tigers | 42.3 % |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 42.5 % |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Rays | 42.7 % |
Today’s MASH report is the first a couple players, Hughes and Tillman, returning from the disabled list. I will give pitcher velocities right after they come back and then re-examine then after a few games.
Recent injury data
• Aramis Ramirez is out at least 2 weeks with a knee injury worse than the one he had in spring training.
Today, I am going to focus on some pitch speed data. While starters have pitched only once, pitch speeds stabilize quickly and the small amount of data is useful. It takes only a couple of pitches to get an idea of a pitcher’s speed.
While a loss in velocity can be a sign of injury, it can also mean a pitcher is in a transition period. All pitcher’s will lose speed over time at the rate of 0.25 mph per year. Pitchers are going to to have to adjust to throwing slower and slower if they want to stay in the league. It is a fact of life.
Mainly I have spent my time over the last couple of days getting the list of players officially on DL updated. I have divided out the players officially on the DL and others who may not play because of injuries. These list will become clearer over the next few days as teams must decided if the player is healed enough to play.
To start the season, 104 players were placed on the disabled list. Last season almost 500 trips were made to the DL, so a fifth of the DL trips have happened before the season starts.
Recent injury data
• Johan Santana is done for 2013 with a re-torn shoulder. No fantasy value here.
Not as many updates today as I expected. Quite a few players were officially moved to the D.L., but new injuries have been limited over the past few days.
Third base is just seeing a ton of injury issues. I went and looked at an early draft from ESPN. Six of the first eleven draft 3B have a chance of starting the season on the D.L.
(#3 David Wright, #4 Hanley Ramirez, #6 Chase Headley, #8 Brett Lawrie, #9 Pablo Sandoval, #11 David Freese)
Recent injury data
• Bryce Harper is dealing with a thumb issue which seems to keep getting worse. If he tries to play through it, his production may be down a bit.