Archive for Injuries

Waiver Wire: Longoria Replacements

The Rays may be 0-3 and off to the worst start in franchise history, but the biggest concern in the Tampa Bay area revolves around the health of Evan Longoria.

The All-Star third basemen has been put on the 15 day disabled list and will miss a minimum of three weeks. That loss presents a giant hole to fill for both a Rays lineup that already needed help scoring runs, and fantasy owners who grabbed Longoria in the early rounds of their drafts. The third base position isn’t particularly deep this season, so finding a suitable replacement may prove difficult. Lets take a look at a few possibilities…

Sean Rodriguez and Felipe Lopez

These two will be picking up the playing time in Tampa Bay with Longoria out. Rodriguez is owned in nearly 100 percent of ESPN leagues, so he’s not likely to be found on the waiver wire. However, if you have another player on your team that can handle second base or the outfield – Rodriguez’s two eligible positions – he could fill in nicely at the hot corner. One issue facing Rodriguez is the fact that he doesn’t yet qualify at third base. Give it a week or so and he should pick up the minimum amount of starts to qualify. We know what the 25-year-old brings to the table. He hits left handed pitching exceptionally well, and while he struggles a bit against right handed pitching his outstanding defense should allow him more starts against righties.

When Rodriguez is not in the lineup he’ll be replaced by recently recalled Felipe Lopez. A switch hitter, Lopez has better career numbers against righties, but over the last three seasons has hit .297/.350/.413 against southpaws. He already qualifies at third base, as well as second base and shortstop, and that versatility could prove very valuable over the next few weeks. Lopez had a substandard 2010 season, hitting .233/.311/.345 in 441 PA’s, but proved valuable in 2008 and 2009. Marcel projections a .270/.340/.389 line from Lopez this season, and he’s only owned in o.3% of ESPN leagues at the moment. Keep an eye on when he plays, but you could certainly do a lot worse in the shallow pool of third basemen.

Danny Valencia

It’s rare to find a starter at a shallow position owned in so few leagues (4.1% ESPN), especially one who enjoyed the half season that Danny Valencia did in 2010. In 322 PA’s the rookie put up an impressive line of .311/.351/.448 and even hit seven home runs. Expecting that same type of production is likely foolish, but Valencia is very capable of putting up an average in the .280-.290 range with ~15 home runs. The fact that he’s available in 96% of leagues is frankly shocking to me. You know how many third basemen hit .300 with 15+ home runs last season? Three. Valencia is capable of that. In fact, picking him up only as a replacement for Longoria may be a waste of his abilities. While he might not crack your starting lineup, he’s a very valuable player to stash away on your bench for the entire season.


How Should the Appendectomy Affect Matt Holiday’s Performance?

Matt Holliday needed an appendectomy on April 1st. Originally it was reported that he was to be out about 4-6 weeks. Since then the time table has been moved up, even to the point that Matt has not even been place on the DL yet. I decided to go back and look historically at players that had their appendix removed, see how long they were off and did their performance change after the operation.

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Waiver Wire and the DL: Brown, Blake, Garland and Pineiro

This season I am looking at players that are currently on the DL, but are expected to come off of it soon. I am not going to look at any players owned in over 50% of all leagues, instead I want to focus on players that might be available in most leagues. These players should be picked up soon because they look to be coming off the DL within a month or so.

All owned rates are from ESPN

Domonic Brown (2.7% owned) – Wrist – Dominic’s return to the Phillies looks to be in late April right now. He entered the season with high expectations, but his wrist injury set him back. Of the players I am looking at today, he has the most upside, dominate power source, and the most downside, might not even play in the majors depending on how the other outfielders are doing in Philly. Another concern with me is his wrist injury. He may not have as much power as it usually takes a year to fully heal from a wrist injury.

Casey Blake (1.5% owned) – Ribs/Back – At age 37, he is not going to be a stud on your team. In deep or NL only leagues though, he may be a reasonable option at 3B, especially if you are needing a little power. Also, he may be platooned with another mediocre to below average 3B and used to facilitate better match ups. His exact time table for return is unknown, but he was originally trying to be ready by opening day.

Joel Pineiro (21.3% owned) – Shoulder – Joel is being dumped in many leagues (-15.6%), but looks to only miss a week to start the season. He should be a reliable starter once he is back healthy. The only big knock will be his shoulder. Shoulder problems just seem to keep coming back. Also, it is not generally a good idea to start an injured pitcher the first game back from the DL in case the injury is not healed, instead wait for him to get back into a grove.

Jon Garland (5.5% owned) – Oblique – Jon’s return is a little less for certain, but he is looking to be back in the rotation within the month. He may not put up great stats, but the home games in spacious Dodger’s stadium never hurt.


Disabled List Position Strategy

Most fantasy leagues allow owners a few DL spots and now it is time to begin to use those positions productively. For the past few weeks, several players were known to be injured for 2011 season (ex. Adam Wainwright), but they have not yet been placed on the official DL. In the last few days, teams have begun to officially place players on the DL and the list looks to expand a ton in the next few days as the regular season begins. Now is the time to exploit these extra roster spots. Here are a few suggestions for roster management as the DL list expands.

I will be looking at individual names as the DL expands later in the week.

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Kicking Rocks: Closer Frustrations & Injuries

As much joy as the game of fantasy baseball brings to most of us, it can also bring an enormous amount of frustration and anxiety.  They say you shouldn’t keep that sort of stuff bottled up inside you, unless, of course, you enjoy the taste of bile and all the other stomach acids that a bleeding ulcer provides.  You need to get it out.  But what are you going to do, bitch to your girlfriend?  Try to gain sympathy from your fellow owners?  Doubtful.   Her level of care is reciprocal to your level of interest in her best friend’s latest relationship disaster and deep down, your fellow owners are wishing this kind of stuff on you. Read the rest of this entry »


Three Pitchers Looking to Come Off the DL Soon

Jordan Zimmermann, Erik Bedard, and Edinson Volquez are looking to finally get their first chance this year to pitch in the majors. Here is a quick look on the status of each one’s return.

Jordan Zimmermann (1% – all owned percentages are Yahoo values) – Tommy John Surgery – Jordan made his first rehab start this past Saturday for the Potomac Nationals where he threw 25 pitchers over 2 innings. His fast ball was measured in the mid-nineties, which is what he threw before the injury. Right now the Nationals are looking to bring him up late August or early September.

With many teams shutting down their pitchers in that time frame, Jordan looks like a good bet to place in a DL spot, if available, to save for the last month of the season.

Erik Bedard (45%) – Labrum Surgery on Left Shoulder – Erik was supposed to make his first start of the season yesterday versus the Royals. Instead he was scratched for inflammation in his shoulder and is now looking to make his first start after the All-Star break.

Labrum surgeries are really tough to come back from and Erik is already running into problems. It may be worth a chance to see if he can come back, but I wouldn’t want to count on it. If you have room, put him on the bench and see how his first couple starts go before starting him regularly.

Edinson Volquez (21%) – Tommy John Surgery – Edinson looks to return to the Reds sometime after the All-Star break. It looked like he may have been able to join the Reds sooner, but lackluster control in his last outing for AAA Louisville has pushed his time table back. In his 5 rehab starts so far this season, he has a 1.88 ERA , 19 strikeouts and 5 walks in 24 innings.

Edinson should be picked up if available in your league. It is even more important if it is a keeper league. He can be a top flight starter and is definitely worth the chance to see if he returns to his previous form.


Microfracture for Grady Sizemore

That’s the sound of the final nail in the coffin for the Cleveland Indian’s 2010 season. Already 11 games out of first and languishing at .365, the Indians lost star centerfielder Grady Sizemore for the season today. His knee surgery turned into microfracture surgery, and his early prognosis is for a six-to-nine month recovery period. It’s a tough ‘break’ for a franchise that can’t seem to buy good luck these days.

Dark humor aside, microfracture surgeries are no laughing matter. Ask Tracy McGrady and Chris Webber how their recovery went and you’ll get some nervous laughter and an evasive answer. The silver lining in this story is that Sizemore is still young (27) and he doesn’t have to jump thirty inches up and down on those knees on every other play in his sport. In fact, the combination of those two facts allows for at least some optimism in Cleveland. At least the problem was discovered, and sorted to the best of the surgeon’s abilities. Let’s leave it to the doctors report on his recovery.

Hopefully the injury can be blamed for his poor play this year and last, though his declining ISO is somewhat worrisome. Was his knee hurting in 2009? Did he just peak early in 2008? Will he ever regain that 30/30 form? In real baseball, the Indians may take the 2009 vintage and be happy with it. 112 wRC+ center fielders with plus defense don’t grow on trees. And truly, even fantasy owners should be happy if he comes back and plays to 2009’s level, but they won’t pay early-round prices for that production until he proves the power and speed are back. Still, he makes for an intriguing late-round pick in 2011 because of his immense upside, and certainly keeper league owners should not sell low.

So now what? The Indians will slog through the season and see what else the farm system has to offer at the center field position. Trevor Crowe will get continue to get first dibs on the interim position, and before long Micheal Brantley will get the call. In some ways, this may help the organizational health of the Indians by giving two players that have finished their minor league apprenticeships the chance to play every day in the major leagues. Perhaps they prove they can play every day and allow Cleveland to trade them for value elsewhere. Perhaps one of them proves that they can be a valuable fourth outfielder. Either way, they get a shot.

Crowe’s .276/.362/.391 minor league line doesn’t offer a ton of hope for an above-average regular, but his .813 OPS versus lefties could make him a good fourth outfielder or platoon option. His defense in center was around scratch in the minors according to Total Zone, and a scratch-defensive centerfielder that can hit lefties is not dog meat. At the major league level, he just needs to show he can walk like he did in the minors – his 5.5% walk rate to date is not cutting it.

Brantley is playing decently in the minor leagues currently (.306/.386/.373), but, like Crowe, doesn’t have Sizemore’s above-average (or better) power. For his career, he’s played better against righties (.301/.390/.372), so we may have the beginnings of a center field platoon once he’s called up. According to Total Zone, though, his defense has ranged from exceptional at centerfield (+16 in 2009) to abysmal (-21 in 2009). The book is still open on his ability to play the position at all, and it’s important because he doesn’t own any power to speak of.

Fantasy owners are left crying in their adult sodas at their neighborhood establishment. A 30/30 player will not be on the wire at this point, and they may have no solace for teams built on Sizemore’s speedy legs and powerful bat. If they are looking for help from the Cleveland team, Brantley may be the one to pick up, if only because he plays better against right handers and there are more of them.


DL on the DL: Estimated Return Times

Here are some estimated return times and some additional information on a subset of players on the DL. At some point in the near future this information will be available for all players at all times here at Fangraphs. For now, I will have to provided the information via articles.

Ted Lilly – Late April
Lance Berkman – Late April return, for now. The knee keeps acting up and with the Astros off to their stellar start, the team will not rush him back
J.C. Romero – Late April – Rehabbing with A team
Brad Lidge – Late April – Rehabbing with A team
Alex Gordon – Late April
Joey Devine – Late April
Coco Crisp – Late April
Aaron Hill – Late April
Daisuke Matsuzaka – Late April – He has said he is ready to pitch
Russell Branyan – Late April – Playing for AA team, but has yet to make back-to-back starts
Joe Blanton – Late April Early May. First rehab start to be on 4/20
Ian Kinsler – Late April/Early May
Freddy Sanchez – Late April/Early May
Cliff Lee – Early May
Jimmy Rollins – Early May
Carlos Beltran – May
Kerry Wood – May
Daniel Murphy – May
J.P. Howell – May
Huston Street – May at the earliest
Chien-Ming Wang – June
Erik Bedard – June at the earliest
Edinson Volquez – June/July return at the earliest
Brandon Webb – Unknown Timetable – May at the absolute earliest
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Unknown
Joe Nathan – Out for season – Hopefully the 8% of teams that still own him in Yahoo are keeper leagues


The DL on the DL: Hitters That May Miss Time at the Beginning of the Season

Note: This is a repost of an article that ran on the 26th. The article got corrupted some how.

Yesterday, I looked at some pitchers that will be for sure be on the DL at the beginning of the season. Now here is a look at some hitters that might also start on the DL. All numbers are from Yahoo leagues.

Note: When filling in players for just a couple of weeks, I look for players that will not hurt my batting average and add a few counting stats in the mean time. If players have similar batting averages, look for one with home run or stolen base potential.

Russell Martin – Right Groin Pull – May look to be back by the start of the season. It looks likes right now that owners should not be worried and should only miss 2 weeks at a maximum. Some possible nice fillers for the week are John Baker (12% owned), A.J Pierzynski (53% owned) and Ramon Hernandez (4% owned).

Alex Gordon – Broken Right Thumb – It was report by the team yesterday that Alex will spend at least 2 weeks on the DL. Alex is only held in 47% of all leagues and looks to be a decent candidate to hide on the DL during until he returns. A decent replacement for Alex will be his replacement Alberto Callaspo (26% owned) and is also qualified at 2B.

Brian Roberts – Herniated Disk in Back – Brian is just beginning to test his back, but there is a good chance he will be on the DL to start the season. The backup choices in Baltimore don’t look great, so head to the waive wire for someone like Felipe Lopez (48% owned), Skip Schumaker (42%), Casey McGhee (32%) and Alberto Callaspo (26%). One other note about Roberts is that when he comes back, he might have lost some speed and may not steal as many bases he did previously.

Russell Branyan – Herniated Disk in Back – I loved Russell as a late round pick, but his back is acting up. There is a chance he will be back in a week or barely play a week all season. If Russell is your #1 first baseman, start looking for another. Some 1B that may be available Paul Konerko (50%), Chirs Davis (48% – I would get him even if you have a 1B, huge upside), Luke Scott (17%) and Connor Jackson (9% – another player with huge upside that should be on a bench). If you picked him up as a bench player, hide him on the DL.

Ian Kinsler – High Right Ankle Sprain – He started hitting off a tee on Monday, but should/could be back by opening day. Look to grab one of the guys mentioned to replace Roberts (Lopez, Schumaker, McGhee or Callaspo). Also, you may look at keeping one of the 2B as Kinsler has spent some time on the DL in each of the past 4 seasons.


DL Roster Spot All-Stars

This series will look at players that are officially on the disabled list and can be moved to an available DL slot.

Here are the seven people officially on the DL according to Yahoo:

Edinson Volquez – 12% owned – He’s a great candidate to put on the DL, especially in a keeper league. Even if you are not in a deep league, he should be ready by mid-summer and by then you will have a couple of other pitchers ailing.

Jordan Zimmerman – 2% owned – Pick him up. Young. Decent strikeout rate. If in a keeper league, grab him now and let him sit. He may not pitch at all in 2010, but if you have empty DL slots, use one for him.

Scott Richmond – 0% owned – He currently has an unknown timetable for returning. He may only be worth keeping in an AL-only league. Once the season starts, there should be other better candidates for the DL slots, though.

Anthony Reyes – 0% owned – No reason to pick up a 28-year-relief pitcher with a lifetime 5.12 ERA.

Dirk Hayhurst – 0% owned – Dirk should be back in May or June. Don’t let his ERA of 2.78 last year make you think is OK. He had a FIP of 4.55 in those 15 games. Pass.

Eric Hurley – 0% owned – Not sure if you want to waste your time with him. Should be back mid-May.