A Stud with a capital ‘S’ went down in many outfields this week when the Dodgers decided that Matt Kemp and his balky hamstring needed at least two weeks to mend. Since deep leaguers often need to pick up the team’s actual replacement — anybody else with power and speed is already owned — let’s see if the Dodgers themselves will produce a fantasy-worthy replacement.
Every season starts with stories of how pitchers are losing fastball velocity. While pitchers that lose velocity fill the headlines, a few actually see a velocity spike. A velocity spike is great for a pitcher because it usually means better performance and less time on the DL during that season.
Today I am going to look at a 3 players on the DL that may be able available in a league and should be returning to the field soon. The players could be added to a regular or DL spot.
Ownership rates are ESPN and then Yahoo.
Nolan Reimold (29%, 35%) – Usually, I don’t look at players with this high of an ownership rate because they are just not available in active and/or deep leagues. I am just amazed at how much he is being dropped. He has experienced a 61% point drop in his ownership rate at ESPN (The fact that over 60% of the leagues at ESPN are this active really surprises me).
FYI: The stats in this post do not include yesterday’s games. It’s late and we haven’t updated yet.
After two games back in the starting lineup, the Cardinals placed Lance Berkman on the DL yesterday with a slightly torn calf muscle. It kept him on the bench for four games last weekend, but Puma re-aggravated the injury running after a foul ball on Wednesday. Our consensus rankings had Berkman as the 12th best fantasy first baseman coming into the season, and he did nothing to make us look foolish by posting a .437 wOBA in 30 plate appearances before hitting the DL.
Here are three potential fill-in first baseman to help you weather the storm while Berkman recovers…
Like last week, I will continue to look at players officially on the DL that may be be picked up in a league and stashed in a DL slot. I am not looking at DL eligible players owned in almost all leagues like Michael Pineda, Chris Carpenter and Scott Baker. I will try to look a little deeper for players to fill a team’s DL slots.
Late and drafts and even on the waiver wire, buy lows with extremely high upside are available. In both position players and pitchers, there are oft-injured players who are also oft-productive that can be drafted late or picked up as free agents. Here are three pitchers that I think can be worth a roster spot at the start of the year.
This will be a real quick hitter here, thinking about periphery stuff in terms of roster strategy…
There are no doubt going to be a goodly number of you drafting fantasy baseball teams this weekend (so many in fact that we’re trying to throw together a weekend-long marathon chat for you should you want to check in with crisis situations!). After looking at the many squads I’ve already procured through sometimes deft and sometimes drunken decisions, I’m starting to prepare for my roster spots yet to become available via the disabled list. So while this is a waiver wire piece, it’s rather a bizarro-waiver-wire piece because I’m asking you to think about it in advance. Yes, it’s a strange time of year.
Almost all fantasy leagues have a few spots to place players that are on the DL. Fantasy owners should look at filling these available roster spots with players currently on the DL. I will look at a few players that can be used in these slots.
Victor Martinez – C, DH (1.4% owned in ESPN, 13% in Yahoo) – Victor will not be playing in 2012, so if an owner is in a 1-year league, ignore him. In a keeper league, he has some definate value. Good hitting qualified catchers are hard to find. While an owner may not be able to stash him for a season, why not try hold onto him until the end of the season. If there is a point when he must be dropped to the waiver wire, try to trade him off. Attempt to turn the release into a bidding war. State that owner A, the owner with the best waiver wire ranking and an open DL slot, will get him up unless another owner offers up a trade.
Salvador Perez – C (6.4% ESPN, 11% Yahoo) – Sal is expected to miss 12 to 14 weeks. His return should be in late July at the earliest. All catchers wear down and are generally bad offensively. Sal will be a decent C option when he returns in all but the shallowest of leagues.
Brett Anderson – P (0.4% ESPN, 4% Yahoo) – Brett has been a decent fantasy option when healthy. The problem is that he is rarely healthy. He will not be the same pitcher that he was when he came up in 2009. Since 2009, he has lost 1.5 MPH to his fastball and his strikeout and gone down (7.7 K/9 in 2009 to 6.6 K/9 in 2011). This last injury will degrade his talent even more. Brett looks to return in August when many pitchers may be getting shutdown. He could step in for some innings late in the season.
Rubby de la Rosa – P (0% ESPN, 1% Yahoo) – I like Rubby potential fantasy value more than Brett Anderson. He threw hard (96 MPH) and averaged 8.9 K/9 in 13 games last season. The main problem holding him down in 2011 was his 4.6 BB/9. He could be a great pitcher if he could get the walks under control. He looks to be ready to return from TJS late in the season.
Managing the disabled list isn’t often the difference between winning and losing a league, but if it’s done poorly, it can leave owners hurting for bench space and restrict the ability to grab sleepers or move out a slumping player. This time of year, if used well, the DL can be used almost as an extra draft slot. Grabbing an already injured player, then using that vacated spot to pull a top option off the wire gives owners a way to fill a weakness that emerged during the draft.
There is a huge caveat here: I don’t recommend this plan for those who only have one DL spot. At all. The unpredictability of injuries — I see you Miguel Cabrera — means that giving over the only injury refuge on the roster to someone like a Brett Anderson or Dallas Braden produces the wicked choice of dropping the newly injured player, dropping the long-term injury despite the sunk cost already incurred, or playing with a shortened bench. Survivable? Sure, but far less than ideal. Read the rest of this entry »
Recently, I posted my 2012 starting pitcher DL projections. In the projections, I used games started, age, and injury history to predict the percentage chance a pitcher will end up on the DL. Today, I am going to give an initial stab at how throwing a large number of curveballs and sliders affects a pitcher’s DL chances.
I started by looking at the season after the season in which a pitcher threw over 120 innings. Normally, 39% of these pitchers will end up on the DL. The percentage increases even more if the pitcher threw a large number of sliders or curveballs.