• With Masahiro Tanaka signing with the Yankees, some writers have been comparing his injury chances to Daisuke Matsuzaka and other Japanese-born pitchers. I decided to give a look at the numbers instead of making a guess.

Since 2001, any starting pitcher (min 120 IP) has a 39.2% chance of ending up on the DL the next season, missing 68 days on average. For Japanese born pitchers, 47% end up on the DL, missing 75 days on average.

It may seem like Japanese pitchers are a higher injury risk, but a couple of issues exist with this data. First, only 19 Japanese pitchers are in the sample. Second, the average age was 32.4 years-old for the Japanese pitchers going on the DL. For all other pitchers, the age was 29.7 years-old. If I change the overall sample to just players who would be 32 or 33, the DL chance jumps to 42% and the number of days goes to 74.3. The only reason Japanese pitcher may seem to be more injury prone is their advanced age. Otherwise there is little difference in their injury risk.

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• Manny Machado is ahead of schedule for his return after having knee surgery in the fall. Some good bits of information are available  from the article.

First, he was supposed to be out four to six months. Right now he is at three month point and looks to return earlier than expected.

Orioles third baseman Manny Machado underwent a checkup on his surgically repaired left knee Thursday in California and, according to an industry source, it went well and doctors told the 21-year-old that he was six to eight weeks ahead of a normal recovery period …. Given ElAttrache’s prognosis, if things continue smoothly, the belief is Machado will be ready to play Opening Day.

Second, the date by which Machado needs to playing games and start in the season opener is set.

Showalter said earlier this month that Machado would need to be ready to play in spring games by about March 15 to be ready for Opening Day at Camden Yards on March 31.

As of now, it looks like he may only miss a couple weeks at most.

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• In the comments from last week’s MASH Report, dls asked:

Any info on [Yasmani] Grandal (in particular), and catchers (in general), returning from knee injuries?

First, Grandal will start the season on the DL. Second, here is how the nine catchers in my database with major knee issues performed after the injury.  The values are from the the season before the injury to the season after the injury. Additionally, I included the outfield values I found last week.

The two sets of values are similar and it looks like Grandal should see a drop in production once he returns.

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Not much in injury news over the past week, so I decided to dive mainly into the effects of major knee injuries.

• The Mariners recently signed Corey Hart who missed all of 2013 after left knee surgery. I went through my injury database and found 60 outfielders who either tore or had surgery on a knee. Additionally, I added those outfielders who missed 90 days or more because of a knee issue. In all, I found 60 outfielders who met the criteria. I looked at the weighted average from the season before … to the season of the injury… to the season after the injury. Here are the results:

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It is that time of year when players state they are in the best shape of their lives. I am going to try not to publish any best shape  information unless news exists on the player’s actual progress.

• Matt Kemp (foot and shoulder injuries) had his walking boot removed recently. Currently, he doesn’t look to be 100% by spring training, but ready for the season’s start.

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Just a few updates.

•  Since MLB may possibly banning home plate collision in 2014 (players’ union needs to OK), I was wonder if catcher playing time estimates should be changed.  I went back through the 2013 DL data to see how much time was lost to collisions and Yasmini Grandal was the only catcher with time lost. Foul tips (concussion and hand injuries) caused the most time lost. While other catchers have missed significant time (Buster Posey), it looks like only one or two catchers are affected each season, so playing time estimates should at most be increased a few games.

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Besides the 2014 starting pitcher disabled list (DL) predictions, have a few notes on some players.

• A few weeks ago I re-examined my 2013 starting pitcher DL predictions. The results were dead on as usual. For the 2014 predictions, I have put them in a spreadsheet for everyone to complain about. The main DL percentage chance is based off of age, MLB experience and past injuries.  Additionally, I have added an indication if the player has any other injury inducing traits like heavy breaking ball usage and the inability to throw strikes. While the entire list is available on the spreadsheet, here are the 10 least likely pitchers to go on the DL who also have no other injury indicators.

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Even though there has been no import injury news, some small bits of information has populated the interwebs.  Today’s article is just a small update on the progress of some players.

• The Orioles think Manny Machado will be ready for opening day.

Orioles third baseman Manny Machado continues to progress favorably in rehab from left knee surgery, and manager Buck Showalter said Wednesday the expectation is Machado will be ready for Opening Day.
“We put a real safe date on it,” Showalter said of Machado’s timetable, which initially was estimated at six months for a mid-April return. “I think he’s got a real chance to make the start of the season. [He] needs to play in [spring] games by March 15 to make the season.”

I will wait-and-see with him. It will be nice to see him run and hit before calling him 100%.

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Today I will check back on my 2013 Starting Pitcher DL Projections. Additionally I have injury updates on several players.

• Before last season, I projected the chances a starting pitcher would go on the DL given a formula I created a few season. I took into consideration age, previous MLB experience and past injuries. It is time to see how it did.

First, I removed pitchers who were not on a team in 2013 like Kevin Millwood and Randy Wolf. Next, I added the DL percentage chances for the remaining pitchers. The formula predicted 44.8 pitchers were DL bound. In reality, 44 went on the DL. I will take it. Additionally, I looked at the 20 most and least likely players to go on the DL. Of the twenty least likely, I predicted 6.2 to go on the DL and the actual number was five. Looking at the most likely candidates, I predicted 9.9 to go on the DL and nine actually went. Overall, the results were outstandinga and I will put out the 2014 prediction at a later date.

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Dustin Pedroia’s wrist pushed back my look at pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery. While doing the Pedroia article, I created a query to look at HURT values on a month to month basis. While it isn’t really needed for the off-season, it will be ready for the start of the 2014 season.

• Dustin Pedroia is supposed to have thumb surgery on Tuesday and will be out for 6 to 8 weeks (link).

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