Well, I finally got through all the news after a week in New Mexico with my family. No injury prediction reports (PAIN or HURT) today, but will look at publishing them on Thursday (if not before).

• At the Hardball Times, Dan Farnsworth goes into detail on how wrist injuries affect hitters.  Here is his conclusion:

From these case studies, I suspect that hitters who tend to flatten out the bottom hand early and keep it flat through contact put greater strain on their wrist joints. This forces them to use more of their bones and ligaments to stabilize their swings, rather than their muscle mass. Muscles can be strengthened, while bones and other connective tissue cannot. Just like pitchers who are suffering from diminished velocity due to developing elbow instability, I expect hitters with this type of movement pattern to be more likely to suffer downturns in productivity.

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Bryce Harper’s production has not be at high level since he has returned from the disabled list. Some people, including his manager, are saying his timing is off. In my opinion, I think his left thumb is not yet 100% for several reasons which is causing his timing issues.

In case someone has not been following the train wreck, here are Harper’s stats before and after the injury:

Before: .289/.352/.422, 23% K%
After: .129/.250/.161, 35% K%

The after is only 37 PA, but the results are abysmal.

To look a little deeper into Harper’s production, here is his batted ball placement before and after the injury (embiggen).

He has yet to hit one ball to the outfield’s right side after the injury. Historically, 81% of his home runs have been to center (30%) or right (51%) field. Since he is hitting nothing to the right side, I expect no substantial power from him.

This situation reminds me of left-handed David Ortiz from a few years back. He hit the ball weakly to left field after a wrist injury and then slowly began to pull the ball with authority to right field  as he got healthy. For a sign Harper is turning it around, look for him to start hitting to right field consistently.

The second key factor telling me the thumb still bothers him is he acts like it does. Players with injuries will physically show signs the body part bothers them. Here is Harper after a foul ball from Wednesday  night.

He concentrates on and re-grips with the injured thumb. I went back a looked at him plate appearances before the injury and he never did anything close to the re-grip. If a Harper owner wants to know if he is healthy, watch a couple of games and see if favors the thumb in any way.

Bryce Harper’s thumb is probably not 100% yet and it is behind his offensive struggles since returning from the DL. Two items can be tracked to see if he is turning his season around. First, look to see if he is beginning to pull the ball with some power. Second, watch some of his at bats and see if he favors the thumb in any way.

Next week I am taking a vacation. I am thinking I will publish just the DL table mid-week and that is probably it. Last time I went on vacation, it took forever to catch back up on it.

• Masahiro Tanaka ended up on the DL with an inflamed elbow. Looking over his past starts, nothing points to a possible injury. Velocity was fine. Consistent release point. He was throwing strikes. Hopefully the Yankees caught the injury in time.

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• On July 4th, Gerrit Cole was removed from his start with a sore lat. Here are his velocity readings from the game.

For his next start, look for a fastball velocity near 97 mph vs 93 mph which is where he ended the game at.

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• I wrote about the currently state of Tommy John surgeries at The Hardball Times on Monday and Tuesday.

The key points for fantasy owners are ..

… no velocity increase after surgery…

Tommy John surgery doesn’t help a pitcher increase velocity. While there was a small increase from Season 1 to Season 3 in our sample, it would not be worth it for a pitcher to miss at a minimum one season to see a 0.1 mph bump that they then will immediately lose. Probably most of the increase is from a decline in production before the injury knocked them out of action, as well as the time spent rehabbing.

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• Albert Pujols is hurt … again.

He disclosed after Sunday’s game that he has played with a swollen lymph node in his left groin since Wednesday.

The Angels did not send Pujols to a doctor. Pujols said the team athletic trainers considered the condition more of an infection than an injury, even with what he said was a gland swollen to the size of a golf ball.

Talk about TMI. With baseball, stating it is groin injury is just fine. No more gory details are needed. But since the Angels gave out the unwanted information, he may have to deal with the swelling for a couple of weeks after looking up the symptoms.

Painful lymph nodes are generally a sign that your body is fighting an infection. The soreness usually goes away in a couple days, without treatment. The lymph node may not return to its normal size for several weeks.

His owners may look for a replacement for the next couple of weeks. In most cases, owners are just going to have to ride through the pain also.

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• Right after I published the MASH Report earlier this week, Andrew Cashner went on the DL for shoulder discomfort.  I look at his pitch data and here is what I found. First, he quit throwing his fastball in the last inning he pitched.

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• Michael Wacha is headed to the DL with a “stress reaction in his right shoulder”. You haven’t heard of the injury before? Other people  haven’t either.

There is also no timetable for Garcia’s return, though he’ll begin a rehab program immediately. Yet it is Wacha’s injury that comes with more questions since it is not commonly found in Major League pitchers. The injury does not require surgery, and the MRI did not reveal a fracture in the bone. But having Wacha continue to pitch could have led to one.
….
D-backs pitcher Brandon McCarthy is one possible comparison for the Cardinals to use in determining how to move forward this injury. McCarthy has had recurring stress reactions in his pitching shoulder, and those have cost him several starts over several seasons.

So what we know right now he is “shut down for at least a few weeks”. OK, at least 3-4 weeks with no pitching. Another month to get back up to speed. I think we are looking at a late August return with no setbacks.  In 2011, McCarthy missed 81 days with his stress fracture and various 30 day stints around it. Josh McKinney missed 89 days last season with the same injury. Depending on how things shake out, Wacha may done for the season.

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• Reader Cason Jolette asked about Jason Kipnis possibly still being hurt. He basically lost the entire month of May because of a strained oblique. Since coming back off the DL, his injury indication stats show he may still be injured.

Stat: Pre-injury, Post-injury
ISO: .160, .037
HR&FB Dist: 272ft, 257ft
K% (contact issues): 14%, 18%

It would be nice to see him hit more than two extra base hits over the time frame. For owners looking to see if he gets back, there two places I would look. Go to Baseballheatmaps.com’s individual player batted ball distance page, set it to the past couple weeks and see if his distance is improving.  Also, check out his ISO graph here at FG and look to see if it starts to final trend up (not stay constant).

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•Bronson Arroyo has been hurt for a while now.

Arroyo, 7-4 with a 4.08 ERA, said the right elbow has bothered him his past six starts but has gotten progressively worse.

“I can’t keep going out there and putting different inflammatory (medicines) in my body and beating myself down because I can just see the arm is going south,” he said. “If it would have stayed the same as it was five to six starts ago I could deal with the pain, but it continues to get more swollen. I’m waking up every day not being able to touch a ball for two to three days.”

I have noticed the problem for a while, especially with him near the top of the PAIN ranking (146 value the last time I ran it).

Bronson Arroyo says his elbow doesn’t hurt while his manager says it does. I am guessing it does. His fastball velocity is down 1.4 mph from 2013 and his Zone% is down over 10% points (56.1% to 45.6%). His current PAIN value, comparing 2013 to 2014, is at 154 (more than 100 means he has traits of an injured pitcher). I believe he is hurt and is just trying to throw through it which I don’t think will turn out well.

His velocity is down 2 mph and has been trending even lower. He hasn’t been able to throw strikes (Zone% down from 56% to 48%).

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