With his shoulder strengthened and his mind clear, Gonzales can pitch himself back into the big-league mix this spring. While there’s not an obvious spot for him in the rotation, he will be jockeying for position on the depth chart. The Cardinals will also consider their three young, lefty starters — Gonzales, Cooney and Lyons — for possible bullpen inclusion.
I heard a recent podcast discussion on whether or not it is safe to draft Michael Pineda based on his Tommy John surgery chances in 2016. Pineda would definitely be considered a risk because of the month he spent on the DL with a forearm strain and the way his velocity oscillated around the time of the injury.
Coming into the 2016 season, I pegged his DL chances at 51%. Going on the DL for a couple of weeks or missing more than an entire season are two completely different outcomes. The following is a deep dive into Pineda’s and other pitchers’ Tommy John surgery chances.
• Kenta Maeda was recently signed by the Dodgers and looks to have some major elbow issues which will eventually cost him some playing time.
The sides agreed to a deal before the new year, but a source told Crasnick that concerns arose over he pitcher’s elbow during a physical. A source told ESPN’s Jim Bowden that the Dodgers also see an issue with Maeda’s shoulder and that a ligament in his elbow is indeed compromised. However, the 27-year-old has been pitching with both issues.
According to a source, the Dodgers know that Maeda will require surgery at some point but feel that signing him is still worth it if they can get three or four useful years out of him.
I have no clue where I am going to value him right now. I have heard his production and arsenal are similar to what Kuroda had which isn’t great. I think the buzz and unknown nature will get him overvalued.
The plan for Hultzen is to just get him pitching again and see if he can get his shoulder strengthened up enough to compete at some level for a full season. I don’t think they’re worried about rushing him to the Majors or stretching him out for future years. At this point, he just needs to get back on the mound and show he can stay healthy, and the short-term thought is that might be easier in a relief role. One step at a time there.
• Joe Lemire of USA Today wrote an article on the current state injuries and their prevention. Not a bunch of groundbreaking data, but I did find a bit of data I could study.
“We know teams will shut players down if they see certain changes,” TrackMan Baseball general manager John Olshan said, adding that conversely some clubs will hold back a player in rehab until his pitching measurements reach a certain threshold. “They might not know why that’s happening, but they know that somehow the player is compensating.”
I am not sure I am going to go back through the 2015 season look for data, but may be able to track through the 2016 season.
• At the Hardball Times, my year in review on the disabled list. The one item I was happy to make available is this time on the DL estimator. Not the most useful now, but will be great to use once the season starts.
The need for a second surgery means that Molina will not be fully cleared for the start of Spring Train-ing, general manager John Mozeliak confirmed on Wednesday. The Cardinals do expect him to be ready by Opening Day, Mozeliak added, but that will ultimately be determined by how quickly Molina can regain strength in that thumb.
To try to expedite the healing and limit mobility, Molina will wear a full cast for the next several weeks.
“I think by the end of January, the cast should be off and then he’ll begin his strengthening exercises throughout the month of February and March,” Mozeliak said. “The biggest question will be: When will he swing a bat? They don’t feel like any of this should affect how he catches or when he can catch, but to have him ready by Opening Day, [swinging] will really be the test.”
Sounds like Molina’s production level will come down for a bit, but, as always, the full extent is not known yet. Looking at some past similar injuries, 50% of the players took 60-74 days to return which is in line with the Cardinals report. Additionally, no instances exist of the return taking more than 74 days.
Valuing injured pitchers who plan on returning at a later date can be tough to do correctly. Yu Darvish an example of such a pitcher. After having Tommy John surgery in mid-March this past season, Darvish should return some point after mid-May (14-month rehab is the norm now). An owner can expect above replacement level from Darvish, but for a couple months, a lesser pitcher will be used. I will step through the process of valuing Darvish by combining his value with a replacement level pitcher.
• The Brewers have been awarded the Martin-Monahan award for “keeping its players on the playing field and off the disabled list”. This is the second year in a row the Brewers have gotten the award.
It was Braun’s first visit since undergoing surgery to relieve a bulging disc in his lower back.
“I feel pretty good, knock on wood,” said Braun, who is six weeks post-surgery. “The only surprise is the rehab is a little bit longer than I was anticipating, but other than that, everything went as planned and as expected. The first couple of days post-surgery weren’t fun, they were pretty painful. Other than that, I feel good.”
Braun is undergoing physical therapy four days a week. He downplayed the effect the prolonged rehab will have on his preparation for 2016, since he typically does not begin a throwing program until around Christmas, and he does not begin swinging a bat until January.
Asked when he expects his back to be 100 percent healthy, Braun said, “I have no idea. I’ll know when I get there. Certainly the goal is to be back to 100 percent. That’s my plan. I think it’s realistic, but until I get through the rehab and the physical therapy, I won’t know.”
• Not much injury news this past week. One note, I finished my annual review of the disabled list and it has been sent to the Hardball Times editors. Expect to see it run sometime in the next couple of weeks.
