Rangers sign Mike Napoli

Signing with the Rangers boosted Napoli’s fantasy value. If healthy, he’ll accumulate a full season of PA at first or DH.  He’s going to be in a good offensive park with good hitters around him. He just needs to keep up the gains he showed last season.

In 2016, Napoli went pull and flyball crazy on the way to posting his highest single-season home run total (34). His power may regress some, but if he comes to bat 600 times 30 home runs are reachable. He’s never going to have a decent batting average because of his lack of speed, high flyball nature, and near 30% strikeout rate.

The big losers with this signing are Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo, Ryan Rua, and Josh Hamilton who are all competing for the DH spot. Playing time looks to be at a premium among them. Of the four, I have always liked Profar’s talent but he needs to play to be productive. I hope he gets a chance sometime.

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Rays traded Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers for Jose De Leon

After looking over several factors (e.g. league, park, etc.), the biggest change for Forsythe will be the players surrounding him and his lineup position. Currently, we have the Dodgers projected for 4.6 Runs per games while the Rays are at 4.3 Runs per game. A better offense equates to more plate appearances, Runs, and RBIs.

My one worry is lineup position. In the games he started last year, he always led off. Right now, RosterResource.com has him again leading off. If he struggles, the Dodgers have better lineup replacement options than the Rays did. His value could plummet if moves down, especially to the eighth spot.

As for De Leon’s value, the key will be how many innings he throws. With the Rays not really contending this season, he could spend quite a bit of time in the minors or be up in a couple of weeks. No one knows for sure.

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The news cycle is pretty dry as seen by the multiple Drew Smyly articles. Even so, here are a few bits of fantasy relevant news from the past week.

Trades and Signings

Involving two trades, the Mariners get Drew Smyly and Shae Simmons, the Braves get Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows, the Rays get Mallex Smith, Ryan Yarbrough, and Carlos Vargas.

With so many players traded, here’s a breakdown of those relevant to fantasy baseball.

• Drew Smyly: Other FanGraphs and RotoGraphs authors have covered him in detail. I rooted around in his stats and think he will continue to struggle since he has only two decent pitches, a fastball and a slider.
• Shae Simmons: Edwin Diaz is the Mariners closer. After Diaz, no single reliever stands out so Simmons could get Saves if Diaz gets hurt.
• Mallex Smith: I don’t think he fills the role of an everyday player. He hits at below replacement level (i.e. bad). He wouldn’t get any fantasy love if wasn’t for his stolen base potential. He could eventually fit into the mold of “young” Jarrod Dyson who got stolen bases by pinch running.
• Luiz Gohara: Good arm but still in the low minors. Dynasty league option only.

Rangers signed Tyson Ross Read the rest of this entry »

Minor Trades

The Royals traded Jarrod Dyson to the Mariners for Nate Karns

The trade’s current winner is Jarrod Dyson’s playing time. While I wasn’t able to grab our playing time projections before the trade, Dyson’s playing time was likely projected at a half season of at bats. In the Baseball HQ Forecaster, they projected 259 at-bats and now we have him slotted in for 441 at bats. The additional playing time could help to push up his stolen base numbers into the forties.

I’m worried the Mariners may limit Dyson attempts. Last season, the Mariners were 24th in stolen base attempts. I tried several ways to see if team philosophy or talent controlled stolen base attempts.

A key factor I found was success rate which helped ease my concerns. A .44 r-squared exists between stolen base attempts and success rate. While the correlation isn’t perfect and some survivor bias exists in it, if players are successful, they continue to get the green light. Dyson had a sky-high 85% success rate over the past four seasons. If he can keep up the rate, he should be able to keep running.

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Note: I didn’t write much during the Holiday season and am now just catching up on fantasy relevant news. I didn’t get through all my information and will continue tomorrow.

Nationals Bullpen Situation

I figured Shawn Kelley would be the Nationals closer if they didn’t trade for or sign a proven closer. Last season, his K-BB% was the sixth best among qualified relievers to go with his 2.64 ERA. Simply, he’s a stud. But people are thinking Blake Treinen will get the job. Paul and Eno discussed the option during The Sleeper and the Bust (Episode 412 at 1:20:17). Treinen was also discussed as an option in a James Collier article.

They have numerous in-house options with the arsenal and the perceived “makeup” to pitch the ninth inning, even if they lack experience in that role. Shawn Kelley has the profile with his strikeout ability. Blake Treinen has the ability to induce ground outs, and did so often last season in significant spots with inherited runners.

Treinen induces a ton of groundballs. His 66% GB% is ranks only behind Zach Britton. I can see why people Treinen’s groundball rate could make him a closer since similar pitchers are Sam Dyson and Brad Ziegler. These two closers are serviceable but not elite. The pitchers similar to Kelley’s K-BB% are Aroldis Chapman and Seung Hwan Oh.

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Cleveland Indians signed Edwin Encarnacion

For fantasy purposes, I see no positive impact on Encarnacion’s value from this signing. The almost 34-year-old goes from a home ballpark with a 107 Home Run Park Factor for right-handed hitters to one with a 95 Park Factor. Instead of a 40 home run projection, his projection moves closer to 35 home runs.

As for changes in Runs and RBI, I think they will drop a bit. The Blue Jays averaged 4.7 runs per game (R/G) in 2016 which was down from their 2015 5.5 R/G. The Indians averaged 4.8 R/G in 2016 and are projected for 4.8 in 2017. They both should have a similar number of team runs, but Encarnacion will have five less home runs and the automatic Runs and RBI which go with them.

I don’t see much movement in his normally consistent .260-.270 AVG and two to three stolen bases. Encarncion’s value took a hit, but not a ton. I eyeballed some numbers and his draft value is down about six spots.

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St. Louis Cardinals sign Dexter Fowler

This move made too much sense for both parties. The Cardinals needed a centerfielder and Fowler needed a job. As for the fantasy value changes, several are positive and other negative but overall the move is neutral. In St. Louis, the home park is less pitcher friendly and his new offensive teammates are not as good as the Cubs. The big positive change will be more playing time as he slots into the full-time Cardinals center field job.

Fowler’s talent level has been consistent for the past five seasons. Ten to 20 home runs and stolen bases with a .270 AVG as the norm. There is not a reason for this trend to change. I am though a little worried about the stolen bases will drop off as he enters his thirties.

Fowler’s production may not be playable in shallow formats, but the stolen base and home run combination make him an outfield option in most leagues. He’s valuable, just not elite.

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The Rule 5 Draft Thursday morning essentially marks the end of the Winter Meetings and this year’s iteration did not disappoint. We’ve got three more huge moves to look at today.

Remember, you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter as Jeff Zimmerman and I will keep you up to date on the market.

Royals trade Wade Davis to Cubs for Jorge Soler

This return for Davis might feel light after what we saw elite relievers net during the deadline, but I definitely think the offseason/in-season dynamic plays a role and we also saw Davis suffer two DL stints with forearm and flexor strains. He saw his strikeout rate and velocity drop while his walk rate, ERA, and WHIP all went up, though I will note his swinging strike rate jumped up a tick and a half to 13%.

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12/7/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Guest Details: Paul Kastava, Rotographs Contributor (Twitter linked above)

Guest Rundown:

• Key Closers (5:45)
  • Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland
• Key 1B (37:00)
  • Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Mike Napoli, and recently non-tendered Chris Carter
• Key OFs (1:09:20)
  • Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Ian Desmond, Jose Bautista
• Key Cs (1:33:30)
  • Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos, and recently non-tendered Welington Castillo

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Note: I am not covering the possible Davis for Soler trade between the Royals and Cubs because it is still in the possible stage. Once the medicals get cleared up, someone at RotoGraphs will cover it.

Colorado Rockies sign Ian Desmond

This move is a little confusing in a vacuum. The only position Desmond slots in defensively for the Rockies is first base. The problem is that his offense output doesn’t match up with other first basemen (Desmond’s projected wOBA before the move (.312) would put him around 45th overall at first). I don’t think the Rockies are done making moves, though, so I expect Desmond to probably be on the outfield depth chart soon.

No matter his position, Desmond’s value just skyrocketed. With half his games in Colorado, his batting average will jump along with his RBI and Runs chances. It will be interesting to see where he slots into the lineup which could affect his Run-RBI mix.

Owners need to spend a little time making sure they have a good handle on his value. Don’t wing his valuation. Have a decent idea where his value slots in with your league settings. He could get overvalued if his batting average doesn’t soar like people expect, but I think he will likely be undervalued as his power and speed production could make him similar to Charlie Blackmon.

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