In my last article, I focused on the early-season projection accuracy of hitter playing time. Today, the rest of the standard 5×5 Roto hitting stats finally take center stage. Besides the counting stats, I turn each of them into rate stats to help determine projection accuracy. After completing the analysis, three options stick out.

As a reminder, here are the projections I used and some background on the analysis.

Projections

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• CBS
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the TGFBI ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected the hitter in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in TGFBI). Generally, all the players were projected with the following exceptions. Rotowire and Pods didn’t have a Josh Rojas projection while Pods also didn’t have projections for Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Mike Brosseau. Additionally, CBS was missing several projections. I am blamed for part of it because I forgot to pull designated hitters and they didn’t project as many outfielders. Finally, I just removed the projection for Yasiel Puig. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the more enjoyable exercises I performed before this season was building a $14 NFBC offense, using the contests’ average auction values. The idea was to choose from the 59 hitters that averaged $1 in cost and put together an entire legal offense, filling each required slot. Let’s see how this squad performed, with final FanGraphs calculated auction values included.

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I’ve always wanted to do a projection analysis, especially at different time points. I had it started in 2020 and everything fell apart with the shortened season. I’m starting off simply today by looking at at-bat projections from March 1st with the Wisdom of the Crowds prevailing.

The reason I chose March 1st was that The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) started drafted that day. I pulled all 14 projections that morning. I contacted the paid providers and all but one agreed to have their name associated with the results. They are:

Projections

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• CBS
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1

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Yesterday, I reviewed the eight hitters on my 2021 potential HR/FB rate surger list. Today, let’s once again rely on my xHR/FB rate equation to review my preseason potential HR/FB rate decliners list.

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Today, I continue reviewing my 2021 preseason predictions by moving onto my list of potential HR/FB rate surgers. I used my xHR/FB rate to identify and discuss a handful of names that posted actual HR/FB rates well below what my equation calculated as a deserved mark. Since 2020 was a short season, there were a lot more significant gaps between xHR/FB rate and actual HR/FB rate, so there should have been less reliance on both marks given that we had smaller sample sizes to work with.

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Yesterday, I reviewed my pre-season post comparing my xHR/FB rate to actual HR/FB rate from 2020, revealing which players sustained those 2020 HR/FB rate gains. Today, let’s now flip to the other side — those players in which xHR/FB rate validated a 2020 HR/FB rate decline. Did their 2020 marks represent a new, lower level of sustained production or did it turn out to be a short season fluke? Let’s find out.

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Confused by the title? For most of the rest of this year, I’m going to review all my preseason, and some in-season, posts where I made predictions or used one of my xMetrics to make statements. I think accountability is extremely important in this industry, as our reputation should hinge upon the quality, and accuracy, of the advice we give. Today, I’m reviewing a post that pitted my xHR/FB rate against actual HR/FB rate. These were the guys who enjoyed HR/FB rate spikes in 2020 that my equation validated, or confirmed was real or mostly real. Let’s find out if these hitters held onto their 2020 HR/FB rate gains in 2021.

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For the first time this year, I added an all-star break hitter poll to pair with my pitcher poll. The hitter poll pitted the 10 greatest xwOBA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a higher second half wOBA and which range each group’s wOBA would fall into.

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With the season just over, I’d like some help collecting information on the hitters who played through a 2021 injury. First, I’m not looking for those who may have struggled because of COVID-19 complications but played through a physical injury.

The information can help fantasy managers help point to why a hitter may have struggled when they begin their 2022. Also, my research has shown that these hitters see a production decline that can be incorporated into projections. It’s one offseason data point to have available going forward.

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The 2021 season is officially in the books! Since stats won’t be updated until tomorrow as I type this, let’s look toward the postseason rather than start our 2021 review. Yes, the title of this post is a mouthful. Essentially, I wanted to discuss a number of hitters who could dramatically raise their 2022 fantasy cost with a big postseason. Obviously, any hitter could do so. But these names are a mix that specifically could raise their profiles for a variety of reasons. I’m going to ignore how far I might guess the player’s team goes in the playoffs.

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