You need a little holiday gift for yourself, don’t you? Sure, you’ve probably received your copy of the Forecaster by now and you still have that racy romance novel to finish, but you should add a little more baseball analytics to your que. Go ahead, buy yourself a copy of FanGraphs’ own Mike Podhorzer’s Projecting X 2.0. I recently did and was not one bit disappointed. Many fantasy baseball touts refer to their “projections” often. You’ll hear pundit A say they are working on their projections and pundit B say their projections are vastly different than others, but it’s not always clear what that work entails or how they got those very different projections. Projecting X gives readers a better understanding of how projections should be created and empowers them to take on the task themselves. Regardless of who’s cooking your dinner, it’s always important to know the ingredients.

When writing about K% projections, Podhorzer sites his own research and some of Jeff Zimmerman’s research to identity three plate discipline metrics that help evaluators assess changes in hitter K%. Those three metrics are Z-Swing%, Contact%, and Zone%. Taking it one step further, Zimmerman’s age-curve research showed that hitter K% typically declines through age 24. Podhorzer’s e-book motivated me to take a look at these three metrics among young hitters from the past two seasons. Here are the hitters who accumulated at least 75 plate appearances in both 2021 and 2022 and finished 2022 as a 24-year-old:

If you look at how I’ve calculated these year-to-year differences you’ll see that I’ve made it so the numbers make sense from a positive/negative standpoint. In this case, Luis Robert saw the ball in the zone less often (-4.2%) and made contact more often (1.7%), but swung in the zone less often (-1.7%) while lowering his K% (-1.4%). Scanning the rows will show you that nine out of 12 players “did what they were supposed to do” and lowered their K% in their 24-year-old season.

While we see a few established, elite players listed in the table above, there are certainly a few intriguing players from a sleeper standpoint as well. Taylor Trammell lowered his 2021 K% of 42.1% down to 28.2% in 2022. While 28.2% is still significantly over the 2022 MLB average of 22.4%, it’s an improvement. It’s nice to see the likes of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Brandon Marsh on this list and it’s also important to remember that some of these players were ONLY 24 for most of the 2022 season! If we kick it into experimental mode and drop the PA threshold down to 20 in each season, we see a few more interesting players:

I rostered Bruján in a few deep leagues and was tremendously disappointed, but he’s a young player who is still developing. Yes, he dropped his K% between 2021 and 2022, but like Trammell, he finished 2022 with a K% that still needs to come down (22.8%). Use caution when seeing those decreases in young players and be sure you don’t just assume they’ve figured it out. Hopefully, these two tables give you threads to pull on, rankings to adjust and perhaps, a little itch that can only be scratched with learning how to project player performance on your own. When the 2023 winter cold winds blow, download a copy of Podhorzer’s book and find yourself little gems like this to occupy your off-season hours.

Last Saturday, the Dodgers reportedly agreed to a one-year, $10 million contract with J.D. Martinez, to presumably act as their every day DH. The 35-year-old is coming off a disappointing season, posting his lowest wOBA over a full season since his debut years in Houston, before he transformed into an elite hitter. Will the move to Dodger Stadium fuel a rebound? Let’s check the park factors to find out if his new home park might boost his performance.

Read the rest of this entry »

How would you define Jeff McNeil as a hitter in just a few words? If you had to place him in his own “group” of hitters, who else would you place him with? Last week, I used a cluster analysis to find a player that might compare to Luis Arraez and in turn, help provide some approach recommendations for increasing his power. This week, I’ll use that same cluster analysis, with just a few tweaks, to determine what combination of Statcast and plate discipline metrics increases roto value on average. Let’s start with a refresher on my process.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, the Cubs signed 2019 National League MVP Cody Bellinger to a one-year, $17.5 million contract. On the one hand, who would have ever guessed that the former star would have to settle for a one-year deal in his age 27 season?! On the other hand, he still managed to receive a $17.5 million contract, despite posting an ugly .266 wOBA over the past two seasons. Clearly, teams aren’t ready to give up on him, but are hesitant enough that a multi-year deal wasn’t in the cards. So with the move to Chicago, will a fresh start turn around his career? Let’s consult the park factors to see if the park could help spark a rebound or if he’s on his own.

Read the rest of this entry »

After diving into the top-100 hitters, I ranked the next 100. The talent in this group is so flat that a change of 50 projected plate appearances could move a batter 50 spots in the rankings. There will be tons of disagreements and I completely understand. I kept moving guys around until the last minute.

When I did the first list, I went about 120 deep into the projections to see if anyone popped, but I missed a couple who need a plate appearance boost. For this reason, I included all the hitters this time. Besides the actual ranks, I have explained some of the up and down rankings after the table. Also, I had a tough time setting a plate appearance total for some players, so some tiered ranks.

Notes:

• The rankings start with a weighted average of several available projections. From there, I moved hitters up or down based on my perceived playing time (PA) or talent (Talent)
• I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto.
• No catchers were ranked (article coming soon).
• I did NOT take any position scarcity into account (besides catchers). There hasn’t been any for at least a dozen years, so I don’t expect any this season.
• I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
• Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings.
  Name	PA	AVG Rank	OBP Rank	Points (ESPN)	PA	Talent
  Aaron Judge	650	1	2	7
  Jose Ramirez	660	2	3	1
  Kyle Tucker	620	3	5	4	Down
  Trea Turner	680	4	14	16
  Ronald Acuña Jr.	610	5	4	35
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	680	6	8	3
  Julio Rodriguez	650	7	9	30		Down
  Shohei Ohtani	650	8	7	18
  Juan Soto	660	9	1	2
  Bo Bichette	670	10	19	21		Down
  Pete Alonso	660	11	12	5
  Freddie Freeman	680	12	10	6
  Yordan Alvarez	680	13	11	8
  Mookie Betts	650	14	15	14
  Manny Machado	660	15	17	10
  Bobby Witt Jr.	640	16	22	29		Down
  Fernando Tatis Jr.	530	17	6	40		Down
  Rafael Devers	660	18	21	12
  Paul Goldschmidt	660	19	16	15
  Mike Trout	600	20	13	24
  Austin Riley	680	21	23	19
  Matt Olson	680	22	18	11
  Randy Arozarena	640	23	24	58
  Francisco Lindor	680	24	25	22
  Michael Harris II	580	25	27	49		Down
  Marcus Semien	680	26	30	27
  Jose Altuve	640	27	26	25
  Kyle Schwarber	630	28	20	41
  Nolan Arenado	640	29	36	9
  George Springer	590	30	29	32
  Luis Robert Jr.	550	31	34	43	Down
  Adolis García	650	32	40	75		Down
  Eloy Jiménez	610	33	68	40	Up	Up
  Corey Seager	640	34	35	17
  Andrés Giménez	610	35	41	82
  Starling Marte	550	36	43	106
  Teoscar Hernández	600	37	50	73
  Oneil Cruz	550	38	31	87	Down
  Christopher Morel	650	39	150	217	Up
  Ozzie Albies	610	40	61	37
  Gunnar Henderson	580	41	32	63
  Dansby Swanson	650	42	45	67	Down
  Trevor Story	620	43	44	94
  Jazz Chisholm Jr.	525	44	37	110	Down
  Jake McCarthy	550	45	42	108	Down
  Bryan Reynolds	650	46	39	42
  Alex Bregman	650	47	28	13
  Tim Anderson	580	48	88	128
  Cedric Mullins II	580	49	33	61	Down
  Gleyber Torres	600	50	63	67
  Wander Franco	600	51	70	26
  Kyle Stowers	650	52	216	232	Up
  Xander Bogaerts	630	53	46	36
  Willy Adames	630	54	66	83
  Taylor Ward	630	55	75	80	Up	Up
  José Abreu	640	56	52	31
  Carlos Correa	620	57	48	34
  Nathaniel Lowe	630	58	54	54
  Tyler O’Neill	530	59	69	136		Up
  Ryan Mountcastle	620	60	84	66
  Amed Rosario	630	61	108	90
  Tommy Edman	610	62	55	77	Down	Down
  Brandon Lowe	580	63	56	72
  Vinnie Pasquantino	580	64	51	19
  Seiya Suzuki	600	65	60	87
  Byron Buxton	480	66	81	136
  Anthony Santander	610	67	67	30	Down
  Corbin Carroll	500	68	53	130
  Christian Yelich	650	69	38	112
  Mitch Haniger	610	70	104	115	Up
  Christian Walker	630	71	49	35	Down
  Rhys Hoskins	640	72	47	50
  Steven Kwan	620	73	76	47
  Jeremy Peña	610	74	103	128
  Jorge Polanco	600	75	78	55
  Josh Jung	600	76	153	168	Up
  Ty France	630	77	83	46
  Nico Hoerner	610	78	94	64
  Matt Chapman	640	79	64	91
  Javier Báez	600	80	111	148		Down
  Ian Happ	640	81	77	85
  Rowdy Tellez	570	82	80	44
  Hunter Renfroe	550	83	92	75
  Thairo Estrada	570	84	99	111
  Josh Bell	610	85	72	33
  Anthony Rizzo	570	86	59	58
  Joey Meneses	610	87	137	98	Up	Down
  Ke’Bryan Hayes	590	88	93	131
  Oscar Colas	500	89	262	275	Up
  Brandon Nimmo	640	90	62	78
  Oscar Gonzalez	550	91	139	74
  Triston Casas	570	92	57	53		Down
  Oswaldo Cabrera	550	93	208	227	Up
  Giancarlo Stanton	510	94	85	105		Up
  Nick Castellanos	600	95	115	96
  Jake Cronenworth	650	96	87	51
  Eugenio Suárez	620	97	82	115
  Seth Brown	580	98	102	118
  Austin Hays	610	99	123	87
  Jose Miranda	620	100	140	60	Up
  Lars Nootbaar	580	101	131	157	Up
  Alec Bohm	630	102	130	96
  Vaughn Grissom	500	103	151	180	Up
  Riley Greene	600	104	97	138
  Max Muncy	570	105	58	70
  Lane Thomas	620	106	157	186	Up
  Andrew Vaughn	600	107	117	62
  Bubba Thompson	450	108	271	346	Up
  Alex Verdugo	600	109	126	64
  Ketel Marte	580	110	109	71
  Jeff McNeil	600	111	120	56
  Garrett Mitchell	500	112	183	277	Up
  Luis Arraez	610	113	116	56
  C.J. Cron	610	114	71	47		Down
  Michael Conforto	570	115	89	106
  Jonathan India	600	116	96	142
  Cody Bellinger	540	117	121	146
  Kris Bryant	550	118	79	86		Down
  Jose Siri	480	119	147	254
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	530	120	160	109
  Jean Segura	550	121	149	133
  Brandon Drury	560	122	168	126
  Jurickson Profar	600	123	113	93
  Tommy Pham	570	124	119	184
  Trent Grisham	550	125	114	172
  Yandy Díaz	550	126	86	52	Down
  Andrew Benintendi	540	127	145	123
  Randal Grichuk	500	128	190	143
  Luis Garcia	500	129	192	144
  Luis Urías	570	130	124	121
  Mike Yastrzemski	570	131	134	157
  Austin Meadows	500	132	138	120
  Luis Rengifo	560	133	217	175	Up
  Ramón Laureano	500	134	90	167	Down
  Avisaíl García	560	135	180	195
  Yoán Moncada	590	136	142	170
  Dylan Carlson	540	137	143	149
  Joc Pederson	480	138	146	160
  Bryson Stott	510	139	167	177
  Marcell Ozuna	475	140	178	169	Up
  Chris Taylor	550	141	152	217
  Chas McCormick	530	142	223	241	Up
  Jack Suwinski	500	143	221	262	Up
  Ha-Seong Kim	530	144	173	161
  Mark Canha	550	145	106	154	Down
  Trey Mancini	580	146	166	152
  Justin Turner	520	147	154	117
  Wilmer Flores	550	148	171	103
  CJ Abrams	500	149	105	141	Down	Down
  Luke Voit	510	150	158	201
  Manuel Margot	480	151	155	149	Down
  Harrison Bader	450	152	110	162	Down
  Gavin Lux	500	153	127	125	Down
  Josh Rojas	450	154	91	146	Down
  TJ Friedl	470	155	163	195
  Eduardo Escobar	520	156	198	152
  Jesse Winker	520	157	122	112
  Jeimer Candelario	560	158	185	156
  Gio Urshela	520	159	213	155
  Tyrone Taylor	470	160	199	190
  Josh Naylor	450	161	135	78	Down
  Ryan McMahon	590	162	100	124		Down
  J.D. Martinez	610	163	112	101		Down
  Kolten Wong	480	164	164	184	Down
  Elvis Andrus	500	165	218	193
  Patrick Wisdom	460	166	177	244
  Jorge Soler	500	167	169	190
  Spencer Torkelson	540	168	161	164
  Jake Fraley	410	169	162	222
  Jorge Mateo	450	170	118	212	Down	Down
  Bryan De La Cruz	470	171	226	215
  Eric Hosmer	470	172	205	151
  Brandon Crawford	520	173	193	174
  Jonathan Schoop	540	174	238	180
  Ramón Urías	520	175	203	193
  Dylan Moore	380	176	165	287
  DJ LeMahieu	510	177	159	145		Down
  Jarred Kelenic	440	178	201	223
  J.P. Crawford	610	179	188	135
  Anthony Rendon	450	180	107	67	Down
  Kerry Carpenter	390	181	211	209
  Leody Taveras	450	182	219	239
  Trayce Thompson	410	183	194	244
  Garrett Cooper	520	184	195	199
  Matt Mervis	390	185	207	188
  Nick Gordon	440	186	234	234
  Charlie Blackmon	540	187	179	119		Down
  Miguel Vargas	370	188	206	206
  Brandon Belt	450	189	228	249	Up
  Enrique Hernández	530	190	215	166
  Andrew McCutchen	450	191	133	140	Down
  Joey Votto	510	192	176	180
  Santiago Espinal	470	193	227	178
  Brendan Donovan	480	194	181	180
  Harold Ramírez	450	195	245	197
  Josh Donaldson	490	196	186	205
  Miguel Rojas	520	197	244	176
  Brendan Rodgers	610	198	148	81		Down
  Isaac Paredes	450	199	187	157
  Max Kepler	450	200	170	138	Down

  Notes:

  • Vaughn Grissom: Grissom’s playing time is tough to set. I see him with less than 100 PA (most of the season in the minors), 250 PA to 350 PA (bench bat), or near 600 PA (full-time).Those totals are entirely based on if the Braves do or don’t resign Dansby Swanson.

  • Lane Thomas: The playing time will be way up for him. He leadoff in 31 of the last 32 games while hitting .244/.333/.390 during that time.

  • C.J Cron (all the other current Rockies): They are tough to ever start on the road. Cron for instance has a 1.010 OPS in Colorado and a .671 OPS on the road. None of them are good enough to start on the road. The one exception might have been Kris Bryant, but now that he has plantar fasciitis (career killers for Chase Utley and Albert Pujols) so I’m staying away.

  • Marcell Ozuna: There are a ton of issues surrounding Ozuna, but at the season’s end, he showed some decent signs of life (.321/.368/.585 in September). I’d not be surprised if he gets a shot to start the season, but gets relegated to the bench if he struggles any bit.

  • CJ Abrams: I’m just not sure the 22-year-old is a major-league hitter (.604 OPS in 2022) and could spend some time in the minors.

  • Harrison Bader: First, he’s dealing with plantar fasciitis, so I’m out (see Kris Bryant). Also, he hasn’t had over 500 PA in a season since 2017, so why should he start this season? I gave him a bit under his season high.

  • Josh Naylor: The Guardians have pretty much come out and said Naylor will sit against lefties (.565 OPS vs LHP, .781 OPS vs RHP).

  • Bryan De La Cruz: He has some solid skills starting with a 86th percentile Hard Hit% but dealt with a May forearm injury. Before the injury, he was hitting .325/.417/.475. Until September 1st, he struggled and just posted a .181/.211/.304 triple slash line. He finally got healthy in September when he hit .388/.419/.718.

  • Eric Hosmer: I can’t get a read on his playing time at all. I could see the Red Sox going with him all season as the 1B/DH or he gets just 150 PA as a bench bat.

  • DJ LeMahieu: He’s dealing with a messed up foot that will require surgery or he’ll try to play through it. Either way, I’m way down on him.

  • Jarred Kelenic: I don’t buy he showed any improvement in September when all he faced were the A’s, Royals, Rangers, and Tigers pitching staffs. Editor & Tigers fan Note: RUDE!

  • Anthony Rendon: I can’t trust he’ll be healthy. I’m fine missing out if he happens to rebound this season.

  Here are several guys I had a tough time guessing their playing time. I added several options here to see how much they would go up or down depending on their projected role.

  • Garrett Mitchell: The 24-year-old projects to be a nice power-speed threat but with a 41% K% in 68 PA. Projections have him around 400 PA, probably hedging for a demotion. I gave him a small PA bump but if he plays more, this ranking jumps.

  PA: Rank
  400: 183
  450: 129
  500: 107
  550: 83
  600: 55
  650: 36

  • Jose Siri: He has had a problem staying healthy and has not been able to hit lefties (career .570 OPS vs LHP).

  PA: Rank
  450: 131
  500: 110
  550: 80
  600: 52
  650: 35

  • Christopher Morel: The Cubs just jacked him around by moving him up and down and in and out of their lineup. He is a really nice fantasy option if playing.

  PA: Rank
  450: 140
  500: 117
  550: 86
  600: 57
  650: 40

  • Oswaldo Cabrera: There seems to be a ton of Anthony Volpe hedging with the projections. I think the Yankees shortstop job is Cabrera’s or he’s on the bench or in the minors. I don’t see any 50/50 split.

  PA: Rank
  450: 145
  500: 121
  550: 95
  600: 65
  650: 42

  • Trayce Thompson: The Dodgers have a couple of open outfield spots and Thompson can fill one of those roles. Steamer Projections have him with 24 HR in 471 PA or prorated to 31 HR over 600 PA. It’s tough to find that kind of power going with an NFBC ADP of 511. James Outman could also be in play for one of these jobs.

  PA: Rank
  450: 158
  500: 125
  550: 105
  600: 76
  650: 51

  • Kyle Stowers: He has 25 HR power with a full season of at-bats with a non-negative batting average. Currently, he’s projected for the 5th highest OPS on the Orioles but some other bats (Cameron, McKenna, Mazara, and Cordero) might get a crack.

  PA: Rank
  450: 163
  500: 127
  550: 108
  600: 77
  650: 53

  • Luis Garcia: He has some split issues (.589 OPS vs LHP. .729 OPS vs RHP) so his playing time might be limited. As a 22-year-old, his power profile has some interesting age-similar comps.

  

  Some good and some bad.

  PA: Rank
  450: 179
  500: 135
  550: 117
  600: 89
  650: 61

  • Leody Taveras: I think the 23-year-old gets the first shot at being the center fielder but he’s not been a replacement-level hitter (career .624 OPS). His range of outcomes seems all over the place.

  PA: Rank
  450: 195
  500: 153
  550: 125
  600: 109
  650: 82

  • Isaac Paredes: Since he is on the Rays, his playing time could be all over the place.

  PA: Rank
  450: 210
  500: 173
  550: 135
  600: 118
  650: 96

  Previous ranking articles with notes:

  • • Top-100 Hitters (December 7th)

Last Friday, the Padres signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million contract, which gives them quite the middle of the order assuming a healthy Fernando Tatis Jr. Having spent his entire career in Boston, let’s consult the park factors to see how a move to a new home park for the first time might affect his results.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2022 American League batting title was won with .316. It was the lowest batting average to earn the award in the American League since Carl Yastrzemski hit .301 in 1968. Rod Carew earned the best AL batting average in 1972 with .318 and Tony Gwynn hit .313 in 1988 to earn the NL award. But typically, the batting title is awarded for a higher average. The average batting average of players winning the batting title in both the AL and NL over the past 50 seasons has been .345. Arraez’s .316 average was impressive, but it probably won’t benefit your fantasy team when quite enough when it brings only 8 home runs along with it.

Is there room for more power in Arraez’s approach? Don’t tinker with a good thing is what I immediately think, but then again, will .316 and probably slightly below (Arraez steamer 2022: avg .305), continue to top leaderboards? Furthermore, Arraez is up for arbitration prior to the 2023 season and won’t be a free agent until 2026. He has plenty of room to work for a few extra dollars in the power department. Shoot, he even said he wanted to add power himself when speaking with two of the most powerful in Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge at the All-Star game (0:36):

So, what can he do? How can Luis Arraez add a little more power without changing who he is? I’m not a swing expert, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night and I know how to run a clustering model on high-dimensional data. But we’ll get to that in a minute.

Let’s start with who he is. First, he’s a man who does not strike out. He had the lowest K% at 7.1% among qualified hitters in 2022. He also never swings and misses. His 2.5% SwStr% was also the lowest among qualified hitters and lower than the new kid on the block Steven Kwan’s second place 3.1%. Second, he doesn’t steal bases. Four bags in 2022 and two bags in 2021 didn’t accentuate Arraez’s ability to get on base. Lastly, he doesn’t hit for power. His .104 ISO ranked 12th from the bottom among qualified hitters in 2022. From a fantasy perspective, Arraez is not necessarily a one-sided player, but he’s close. He got on base enough times to be driven in to score enough times and both his mR and mAVG returned positive value according to our auction calculator:

So where does this profile place him amongst his peers? Well, looking at a lot of columns in a spreadsheet can make it difficult to put a single label on a player. There’s just too much to sway your opinion. In order to combat this and help us create a more summarized view of many metrics, I’ll use a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to “increas[e] the interpretability of data while preserving the maximum amount of information, and enabling the visualization of multidimensional data”. I created two sets of variables, one mostly batted ball, and plate discipline and the other Statcast metrics with a few non-Statcast metrics that more or less define power. Here they are:

Batted ball and plate discipline metrics
LD%, GB%, FB%, Pull%, Cent%, Oppo%, Swing%, Contact%, Zone%, SwStr%, CStr%

Statcast/power metrics
HR/FB,EV, maxEV, LA, Barrels, Barrel%, HardHit, SLG, xSLG

With a PCA I’m able to reduce these lists to two numbers which can then be passed through a k-means cluster analysis, grouping players into nice segments for visualization. Typically, a cluster analysis is used to gather insights on unlabeled data and it is a type of unsupervised learning. In this case, we’re using it to make comparisons we otherwise wouldn’t have:

Arraez finds himself, surprisingly, in the high-power end of cluster 1. To better understand why that is, we can compare his Statcast/power metrics with the averages from cluster 1. In addition, I’ll throw in that player all the way to the left, Tony Kemp, to help us compare Arraez with his cluster-mates:

Now we have a group for Arraez that makes sense. Next, let’s look at a few players who are higher up on the power scale, but aren’t changing too much in the batted ball/plate discipline area. Here’s our cluster image from before but with two new names identified that might be able to help Arraez inch over to the next cluster:

I am not saying that Luis Arraez should just go up there and try to be more like Josh. But I am using him as an example to determine what makes his profile more powerful. Josh Bell, 6′ 4″ / 255, and Luis Arraez, 5′ 10″ / 175, are different. While I don’t expect Luis Arraez to just suddenly increase his exit velocity, I am certain he has the skills to change his approach. One place to start would be adding more pull.

Josh pulls the ball more. Josh also swings and misses more often. But while not swinging and missing is really impressive in this day and age, how valuable is it from both a fantasy perspective and a real-life perspective? Increasing his swinging-strike percentage while also increasing his slugging percentage would benefit everyone involved. Arraez is already hitting the ball with decent slugging results when it’s put inside, though he could improve on high-inside pitches, and all of his 2022 home runs came off pulled balls:

–

–

While watching a player who can spray the ball all over the field is fun, Arraez’s numbers aren’t great when going oppo. He slugged .638 when pulling the ball but when he slapped the ball the other way in 2022, he had mediocre results and his slugging percentage was brought down to .364. Just look at how many outs he hit into the opposite direction:

In 2022, Arraez’s HardHit% increased from 27.8% to 30.6% when he pulled the ball. When he was ahead in the count and pulled the ball, it jumped to 32.5%. Given a little more freedom from the worry of striking out, he added more power. But, here’s where things get a little odd. Arraez put the ball in the air more often than Bell and Nimmo in 2022 and his average launch angle was higher as well. If we look at his baseball savant radial chart isolated to singles, doubles and home runs (he only hit one triple in 2022), he clearly knows how to elevate the ball to hit for power:

But, without the exit velocity to take the ball out, he ends up with a lot of fly ball outs. Looking at the table above, he’s putting the ball in the air more often than Nimmo and Bell but with a significantly lower HR/FB rate.

Let’s summarize. Luis Arraez could be more valuable if he hit with a little more power. One way he might add power is to start pulling the ball more and leveling out his swing ever-so-slightly. This may cause him to swing and miss more often, but he can afford it. Arraez earned nearly $13 in 2022 and we should expect that to increase if he can adjust. It may seem nuts, but Luis Arraez needs to start swinging and missing more often.

In mid-May, I reviewed a group of hitters who had most underperformed their Statcast calculated xwOBA marks. While we all acknowledge that xwOBA isn’t perfect, it’s the best all-encompassing estimator we have, so it’s a good star to identifying players who are underperforming and overperforming. Now, I want to find out how these xwOBA underperformers ended up doing over the rest of the season. Did their wOBA marks rebound close to their early season xwOBA marks? Did their skills improve or decline so their rest of season xwOBA marks varied, making the RoS and early season comparison apples to oranges? I’m always curious how my lists turn out, so let’s dive in.

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It’s time for my top-100 hitter ranks. While more is expected to be available on the website (in production), I went through and ranked my top 100 guys… for now. The rankings could change at any time as players get traded or sign with a team, but I feel good about this top group. Besides the actual ranks, I have explained each up and down ranking after the table. Finally, here are the caveats for today’s rankings.

Notes:

• The rankings started with a weighted average of several available projections.
• I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto this time.
• No catchers were ranked (article coming soon).
• I did not take any position scarcity into account (besides catchers). There hasn’t been any for at least a dozen years, so I don’t expect any this season.
• I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
• Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings. Bryce Harper is not ranked without any replacement level.
• For AVG and OBP leagues, I usually drop guys for not hitting enough to be better than the last-place team, but I didn’t with all three systems being ranked.
• I ding highly drafted guys (top-75) who aren’t good hitters (projected OPS under .750). After that point, all the hitters are average or worse.

Notes

• Kyle Tucker: Where in the lineup he bats is going to be huge for his value. I dropped him to fifth in the lineup but if he bats second or third, he could be the overall top bat. Hitting leadoff might drop him down for the lack of RBI.

• Julio Rodriguez: After stealing 21 bases in the first half, he only stole four in the second. Rodriguez put the stop sign on himself.

The club and Rodríguez himself are being more strategic about when to steal. Early in the season, Servais said, it was probably easier for Julio to run because people probably didn’t assume a player of his size was going to run as often as he did. So, effectively, Julio has sort of put the stop sign on himself. This isn’t something the team has mandated or anything like that. Opposing pitchers know he can run, so they’ll pay more attention to him, throw over more and vary their set time on the mound. Doesn’t mean he won’t run more, but he’ll just be smarter/more strategic about it.

I dinged him a bit but if his second-half pace is done for the entire season (projected ~16 SB), it could even be even more of a drop.

• Bo Bichette: I’m not sure the stolen bases are coming back after going 13 for 21 (62%) last season.

• Fernando Tatis Jr.: I dinged him for the unknown screwup. I have zero faith that he has done his rehab and not endangered his shoulder again while riding dirt bikes.

• Mike Trout: I just can’t put over 600 PA on him with 550 PA seeming reasonable. Here are his ranks at the different plate appearance thresholds.

PA: Rank
650: 10
600: 21
550: 28
500: 48

• Michael Harris II: There is a chance he might get platoon after hitting .238/.284/.365 with just 2 of his 19 home runs against lefties.

• Luis Robert Jr.: He has always been hurt and never accumulated over 550 PA (547 PA across three minor league levels in 2019), so I can’t put him over that number this year.

• Eloy Jimenez: I like that Jimenez will have the DH spot all to himself this year to stay healthy thereby staying 100% and in the lineup.

• Adolis Garcia: I never feel good about rostering an early bat projected for a sub-.300 OBP (.284 on Steamer) and a near .700 OPS (.712 on Steamer). I try to roster good baseball players and I’m not 100% sure Garcia is one.

• Oneil Cruz: I don’t know how to rank a guy with just 370 career plate appearances but with a 20/20 projection. I don’t believe the narrative that he improved in September. The team just stopped playing him against lefties who he struggled massively against (53% K% vs LHP) so I dinged his playing time. If a person assumes his projection holds and he gets more playing time, here are his ranks.

PA: Rank
650: 11
600: 24
550: 31
500: 54

If he gets some helium, there are some managers hoping for these extra plate appearances.

• Dansby Swanson: His plate appearances could head south depending on where he hits in his new lineup.

• Gunnar Henderson: His 580 PA seemed light since the Orioles plan on playing time while hitting in the heart of the order. If he hits there, I’d have him up. The issue is that he has never hit lefties in the minors (.956 OPS vs RHP, .697 vs LHP) and in his short MLB time (.872 OPS vs RHP, .448 vs LHP). He was not really platooned by just sitting against three of the eight lefty starters. It’s just something to track.

• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: He has never hit lefties with a career .661 OPS against them (.616 OPS vs LHP in the minors). The deal is that the Marlins were sitting him against lefties. Of the 17 lefty starters the team faced before he went on the IL, he only started in eight of them.R

• Jake McCarthy: I’m not 100% sure he is even an average hitter as seen by his .753 OPS Steamer projection. The 550 PA is a hedge, but here are his rank at different plate appearances

PA: Rank
650: 16
600: 24
550: 39
500: 57

• Cedric Mullins II: Another guy with major platoon issues (career .813 OPS vs RHP, .646 vs LHP). From July 28th on, the Orioles face 15 left-handed starters with Mullins only starting against four of them. I’m not sure if 580 is the right number of PA, but I am dropping him from some near 650 PA projections.

• Taylor Ward: Projections don’t like his playing time (sub 600 PA), so a small boost there. Also, they don’t know about him playing through a shoulder injury.

• Mitch Haniger: I don’t see him with sub-600 PA as a DH.

• Tyler O’Neill: I can’t argue too much with a 530 PA projection but if he ever gets over it he has a nice upside based on more volume.

• Tommy Edman: Not a great hitter (career .732 OPS) especially against righties (career .701 OPS). Sometimes he struggles and then gets buried in the ninth spot. When batting later in the lineup, he doesn’t steal as much with 21 SB in 400 PA while leading off and 2 SB in 112 PA batting ninth.

• Anthony Santander: For a 28-year-old nearing 200 career IL days to be projected for over 650 PA seems high.

• Christian Walker: I dinged him down on the +650 PA projection but his ability to hit 30 HR has him way higher than expected in my rankings.

• Thairo Estrada: He is not a good hitter (.733 OPS Steamer Projection) so he might lose playing time if he struggles.

• Javier Báez: I don’t know how to rank him… at all. Anyone with the potential for 20 HR and 10 SB is going to have decent Roto value. Baez’s projection is similar to Jeremy Peña and Ian Happ’s and I don’t have a problem with their ranks.

• Joey Meneses: I think he’s going to get an everyday chance to play next season, so I moved up the playing time. What I don’t agree with is his 25 to 30 HR projection with a ~.265 AVG. Some fantasy managers are getting a Frank Schwindel vibe while I’m seeing some similarities to Jose Bautista. The right course of action is to be in between.

• Giancarlo Stanton: If he’s healthy and the plate appearances jump, he would leap up to about 50th with just 600 PA.

• Triston Casas: I’m worried that the Red Sox will bring in a decent first-base option or play Hosmer if Casas struggles for a week or two.

The hot stove is in full swing! Yesterday, fantasy superstar Trea Turner agreed to an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. Finally, Philadelphians will learn whether Turner prefers Geno’s Steaks, or its competitor across the street, Pat’s King of Steaks. I took a weekend trip to Philly last year and tried neither, but did highly enjoy a version from Woodrow’s sandwich shop that was topped with truffle whiz. If you’re a fan of truffles (not the chocolates!), this is the pick. So now Turner joins his third team and a new home ballpark. Let’s consult the park factors to find out how his performance might be affected.

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