There are three metrics that directly drive a hitter’s home run rate — strikeout rate, HR/FB rate, and FB%. Strikeout rate ties to balls in play, so the more balls in play, the greater the home run rate, all else being equal. The hitter’s HR/FB rate is obvious, as that’s literally telling us what percentage of fly balls have left the yard. Finally, FB% is the percentage of balls hit in the air. While a small percentage of line drives do end up as home runs, the vast majority come from fly balls. We typically think a hitter increased his power by raising his HR/FB rate when we see a home run spike. But as there are actually three metrics driving home run rate, that’s not always the case. So let’s focus on the hitters who have increased their FB% marks the most versus last year. More fly balls equals more opportunities for a home run.
Yesterday, I reviewed four rookie hitters that were former top prospects. Today, let’s continue with the rookie hitter reviews, this time mixing in some surprising top performers with additional former top prospects.
Last week, I reviewed a number of rookie starting pitchers. Now let’s flip over to the hitters. I’ll begin by reviewing some of the top prospects before switching over to the top performers that weren’t top prospects in an effort to cover everyone you care about.
I have a short amount of time to get this done today (son’s final track meet) so I’ll give each team a quick look and move on. I’m not going to include any stats. I might look into lineups a little more at the meet on Twitter.
There are still a number of hitting metrics to review the extreme cases, so let’s continue the weird and the wonderful on the batting side before moving over to the pitching side.
Today is Statcast day, so I’ll review hitters at the extremes of the various Statcast metrics we share on FanGraphs.
Yesterday, I reviewed some of the early 2023 outliers in various hitting metrics. Since there are so many metrics, we’ll continue on the fun. Yesterday, the focus was on strikeout and walk rates. Let’s now flip over to batted ball metrics.
In past years, I have reviewed some of the most extreme performers in various categories after around a week of play. Though not necessarily actionable, it was fun to see the players and stats that stood at the top and bottom of the leaderboards. It’s a bit later than I have normally reviewed the weird and the wonderful historically, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t any wackiness going on! So let’s review some of the outliers a couple of weeks into the season.
