This article is a data dump of some Baseball Savant-based aging curves, several “normal” curves along with some player improvement chances. There is no actual player analysis but instead, this article is to be a reference for future player breakdowns.

The main reason behind this study is to have an answer to: “If only player X increased their Launch Angle/Hard Hit Rate/Barrel Percentage, they could take a step forward. Here is an attempt to put some numbers to those “ifs”. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters who have increased their Barrel% most compared to last year. Now let’s discuss the decliners.

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Since 2015, for hitters with at least 200 PAs, there is a 0.80 correlation between Barrel% and HR/FB rate. Since hitting barrels is the underlying skill that drives HR/FB rate, let’s look at the gainers and see if their HR/FB rates have improved as well.

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Yesterday, I discussed five hitters who have raised their flyball Hard% marks the most versus 2023. Now let’s discuss the biggest decliners.

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The easiest way for a hitter to increase his HR/FB rate is by simply hitting the ball harder. So let’s review the hitters that have increased their flyball Hard% the most versus 2022. These gains should correspond with HR/FB rate gains, but that’s not always the case. Furthermore, these gains may not last. Let’s find out who these mystery men are that have been knocking more snot out of the ball than last year.

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American League

Angels

• Taylor Ward (.853 OPS over the last two weeks) has started and led off for five straight games.

• Luis Rengifo has started in eight of the last 10 games while playing four different positions (2B, SS, 3B, and OF).

• Andrew Velazquez (.203/.337/.392, 3 HR, 7 SB) has taken over shortstop with Zach Neto on the IL (oblique).

Astros

• Jake Meyers (.236/.314/.402, 6 HR, 3 SB in 194 PA) is starting to get most of the centerfield starts (eight of last 10).

Athletics

• Jace Peterson has started in 11 of the last 12 games while hitting .378/.465/.568 with 2 HR and 4 SB over the last two weeks.

• JJ Bleday has only started in two of the last five games.

Blue Jays

• With Brandon Belt on the IL (hamstring), Cavan Biggio (.192/.270/.385, 6 HR, 2 SB) has started in four of the last five games.

Guardians

• Josh Naylor and Will Brennan have started against the last three lefties.

Mariners

• Mike Ford (vs RHP) and AJ Pollock (vs LHP) are in a platoon.

• Dylan Moore (just 11 PA) has only two starts, both against lefties.

• Jose Caballero (.245/.397/.367, 2 HR, 9 SB) has started four straight games at second base. Kolten Wong started a few games at second base but has struggled by hitting a .282 OPS over the past two weeks.

Orioles

• Adam Frazier is no longer leading off but instead it is Austin Hays against lefites and Gunnar Henderson against righties.

• Ryan O’Hearn has started in seven of the last 10 games while hitting .315/.363/.603 with 5 HR in just 80 PA this season.

Rangers

• Steady.

• Since returning from the IL, Ezequiel Duran (.838 OPS, 8 HR, 3 SB) has started in nine of 12 games.

Rays

• Isaac Paredes (.862 OPS over the past two weeks) has started nine straight at third base.

• Taylor Walls (356 OPS over the past two weeks) has started in nine of the last ten games.

Red Sox

• Christian Arroyo (.654 OPS) has started seven of the last eight games at second base.

• Pablo Reyes (.257/.385/.351 in AAA) has started three of the last four games at shortstop.

Royals

• Michael Massey (.387 OPS in June) has started in eight of the last 10 games.

• Dairon Blanco (.347/.444/.451 in AAA) has started three straight since being recalled from the minors.

• Edward Olivares (1.109 OPS in June) has started five straight games.

Tigers

• Consistent.

• Andy Ibáñez (.217/.262/.400) sat for five games with no reason given but then started in four straight games.

Twins

• Edouard Julien (vs RHP) and Kyle Farmer (vs LHP) are in a second base platoon.

• Willi Castro (.473 OPS the last two weeks) has only started one of the last four games.

White Sox

• Clint Frazier (.594 OPS) has started the last two games in the outfield.

• Jake Burger is back at third base with Yoán Moncada on the IL (back).

Yankees

• Jake Bauers (.763 OPS) has led off for the last two games (10 straight starts).

• Giancarlo Stanton has hit second in the last two games.

• Billy McKinney (.960 OPS) has started seven straight.

National League

Braves

• Steady.

Brewers

• Blake Perkins (vs LHP) and Jon Singleton (vs RHP) are in a platoon.

• Since coming off the IL, Luis Urías (.521 OPS) has started in seven of nine games.

Cardinals

• Steady.

Cubs

• Mike Tauchman (.296/.414/.338 with 2 SB in 88 PA) has started five straight while leading off with Nico Hoerner dropping down to second and Dansby Swanson to fifth.

• In his first game off the IL, Cody Bellinger hit sixth.

Diamondbacks

• Josh Rojas has only started three times in the last eight games. Rojas has been splitting time with Emmanuel Rivera who has only three starts in the last five games.

• Geraldo Perdomo (.299/.402/.478, 5 HR, 7 SB) looks to be the full-time shortstop.

Dodgers

• Jason Heyward (vs RHP) and Jonny DeLuca (vs LHP) are in a platoon.

• James Outman (.539 OPS in June) has only started in six of the last 10 games.

Giants

• It’s even tougher than normal to figure out what is going on since several guys have nagging injuries.

• Luis Matos (hitting .350/.415/.561, 10 HR, 15 SB across all levels) hit second in his debut against a lefty.

Marlins

• Garrett Cooper (.783 OPS, 3 HR over the last two weeks) has started four straight while hitting third or fourth in the lineup.

• Jon Berti (.469 OPS, 1 SB over the last two weeks) has started three straight at shortstop.

Mets

• Mark Vientos has started in four of six games (three at first base) and is stealing at-bats from Mark Canha who has started in only five of eight.

Nationals

• No changes.

Padres

• Consistent. The only possible issue is that Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 has sat in two of the last four days.

Phillies

• Kody Clemens (.254/.309/.412, 4 HR) has started at first base in eight of the last 10 games.

Pirates

• What a mess to figure out. It has some Tampa Bay vibes going on where it is easier to point out the four guys in full-time roles: Bryan Reynolds, Carlos Santana, Andrew McCutchen, and Ke’Bryan Hayes.

Reds

• Steadier with TJ Freidl (vs RHP) and Jose Barrero (vs LHP) in a center field platoon. Also through some lineup manipulation, T.J. Hopkins (vs LHP) and Will Benson (vs RHP) are in a platoon. Update: No idea now with Wil Myers coming off the IL and Barrero demoted.

• Stuart Fairchild (.776 OPS, 3 HR, 2 SB over the past month) has started in nine of 10 games in left field.

Rockies

• Jurickson Profar has led off in five of the six games while hitting .260/.333/.380 with 0 HR and 0 SB over the last two weeks.

• Ezequiel Tovar has hit second over the last five games while batting .289/.296/.481 with 2 HR and 1 SB over the last two weeks. It seems like the team is making lineup decisions based on the past two weeks.

• Rookie Coco Montes has started in three of the five games since being called up.

Nearly a month ago, I reviewed four of the top rookie hitters. Let’s now revisit these hitters, how they have performed since, and how their overall season line looks.

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It’s been quite a year for rookies, with a number of them becoming valuable fantasy assets. Today, let’s focus on three recent hitter callups and decide if any of them are going to move into that group as well.

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American League

Angels

• The team is back to being healthy (i.e. Walsh and Rendon) and there are just not enough at-bats to go around. At this point, only Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Anthony Rendon are getting everyday at-bats.

• Zach Neto (.425 OPS over the last two weeks) has only started in two of the last four games. Read the rest of this entry »

My baseball career ended before High School. I didn’t like school and I didn’t want to stick around any longer than I needed to once the bell rang at the end of the day. I regret not playing. I think I could have. Naturally, I decided to give it another go as a grown man who is too old to play baseball in a Men’s 30+ league and it’s been, challenging. Playing as an adult who makes a lot of grunting noise running for a very routine fly-ball, has given me yet another perspective on this wonderful game of baseball.

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