My best friend is an Atlanta Braves fan. He was born and raised in Puerto Rico and since TBS broadcasted games, that became his team. He’s stuck with them now as we are both into our 40’s, but after the Marlins shellacked Alex Wood 9-0, he sent me a text overnight – “Marlins are stealing signs at home, I’m convinced of it.”
It’s a shame that pretty much no one saw this coming. The question, then: What now?
Jordan Lyles, of the Colorado Rockies, has a 2.62 ERA. Yes, it’s after only seven starts (44 2/3 stanzas). But it’s kind of supported, with a 3.41 FIP, a 3.60 xFIP and a 3.76 SIERA. Those figures say that a correction is coming, but not necessarily the kind you’d expect for a pitcher who makes half of his starts at Coors Field and has a 13.6 K%. If you want real absurdity, check out his 1.25 ERA in three home starts (21 2/3 innings).
As sample-size conscious baseball fans, we are slow to trust early-season numbers. That caution is appropriate, but sometimes I wonder whether we are too attached to the idea of a separation between seasons to recognize when solid starts to the season are really just a continuation of an improved level of play that was established the previous season.
Fortunately, FanGraphs leaderboards have a really cool Past 1 Calendar Years split. In perusing those leaderboards of both hitters and pitchers, these are the names that stood out to me as players I may have been underrating.
Collin McHugh is an example of precisely why fantasy owners shy away from spending a whole lot on pitching at their auctions/drafts. There is simply so much more value that comes along during the season from pitchers plucked from free agency that it makes sense to spend the majority of your budget on offense. McHugh has only started three games, but if he did qualify for the leaderboard, he’d rank fourth among all starters in strikeout percentage. Naturally, 99% of fantasy owners are likely asking themselves the same question — Collin McWho?
I’m a sucker for cool comeback stories – at least enough that I don’t readily dismiss fringe players, former top prospects and those with supposedly newfound abilities for one reason or another who are the subjects of them. I can’t help but wonder if they’ll help my fantasy teams, so I do some research and give them a chance to convince me.
Of course, most of them don’t, just as most fantasy owners had suspected. But they’re worthwhile exercises to me, nonetheless. The rate of return in terms of quantity is low, but the potential rate of return relative to the investment can be great.
The career transformation of Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon McCarthy has already been well documented. Concerned about his future in the majors, McCarthy opted to alter his pitch selection, which led to two fantastic seasons in Oakland. Just a few years removed from that, it’s starting to look like McCarthy has reinvented himself again.
Are you desperate for a second baseman or middle infielder in your deep league? Then you’ve come to the right place! I’ve got a pair of possible free agents ripe for the picking just for you.
Here are my updated shortstop tier rankings:
Tier One: Troy Tulowitzki
Tier Two: Everyone else
Tulowitzki has been that damn good, and while Paul Swydan did a great job covering Tulowitzki’s early breakout last week, it’s worth putting the hot start – 236 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR and all – in context for fantasy baseball.
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Really, who isn’t? OK, maybe Zack Cozart.
But, in general, a fastball is what a hitter sees more often than not. And, in general, a hitter hopes to see a fastball in a “fastball count” more often than not. Perhaps the one they want is of the four-seam variety, but any fastball will do if a pitcher isn’t commanding it. Which probably has something to do with how the pitcher arrived at the fastball count in the first place.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn’t any different from most hitters in that regard.
The beauty of life as waiver wire fodder is that you don’t need to be great, or good, or heck, even a full-time player to gain entry into the club — you merely need to show up with a job opportunity to take center stage here. In the case of our two contestants this week, their long-term playing time is far from certain, but they’ve been given a chance in the immediate term to contribute in fantasy, and given their past success, that might be enough to make them worthwhile in deeper leagues.
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