Archive for First Base

It’s really, really difficult to overstate just how bad the first base situation is in Los Angeles right now. Of the possibly dozens of different ways to describe how awful James Loney & Juan Rivera are, my favorite might be “Juan Uribe still exists, and even despite that third base isn’t the biggest problem on this club.” Loney (.252/.300/.328 & .265 wOBA entering Thursday) and Rivera (.243/.280/.355 & .271 wOBA) have combined to start 112 of the first 118 games at first base this year, and all the Dodgers have received for that time investment is a combined .268 wOBA, just a tick above Seattle for the worst in baseball. (If we go by WAR, which factors in Rivera’s below-average defense, they are dead last.) I’m not sure what’s more surprising – that Loney has just three homers this year, or that he hasn’t had an unintentional walk since June 23.

This couldn’t have come as any shock to the Dodgers, of course. Loney has been struggling (and mostly failing) to live up to his prospect reputation for years, and re-signing Rivera because of a few good weeks in Los Angeles after being DFA’d by Toronto last year never really made sense in the first place. As the Dodgers upgraded elsewhere with Shane Victorino & Hanley Ramirez this July, they attempted to find a solution at first as well – they were reportedly going after Adrian Gonzalez, and did agree to acquire Carlos Lee from Houston before Lee refused to waive his no-trade clause – but were unable to find a good fit.

Barring a surprising August waiver deal for someone like Justin Morneau, the first-place Dodgers are stuck making their playoff push with this atrocious duo. But does it need to be that way? Down at Triple-A Albuquerque, Jerry Sands is crushing the ball all around the PCL, and with every disappointing day from Rivera & Loney, it gets harder and harder for the Dodgers to justify keeping him there. Read the rest of this entry »

As we march toward the final month of the season, it’s time to dive back into the free agent pool and make transactions strictly based on categorical needs. So if you’re in need of power or a pitcher, read on.

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The trade deadline is behind us but there were very few moves made with real fantasy impact at the first base position. Due to popular demand, the catchers — Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Joe Mauer, and Mike Napoli — have been left out of the first base rankings just because they’re so much more valuable behind the plate. The same goes for guys with middle infield eligibility like Howie Kendrick and Michael Young. Here are our preseason, May, June, and July tiered rankings for reference, as well as our consensus second half rankings.

Tier One
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Prince Fielder
Paul Konerko

These four remain the game’s truly elite first base producers, a position where monster numbers are expected. Konerko has cooled off a bit in the power department, which likely has something to do with the minor wrist procedure he had a few weeks ago. The rest of his production is top notch though.

Tier Two
Adrian Gonzalez
Edwin Encarnacion
Mark Teixeira
Mark Trumbo
Billy Butler
Allen Craig
Paul Goldschmidt

Gonzalez has finally started to hit as expected after three down months to start the season, a welcome sight for fantasy owners. Goldschmidt now has a clear path for playing time with Lyle Overbay being removed from the roster, though he still does most of his damage against southpaws. Craig also has a clear path for playing time, but he’s a little banged up himself at the moment.

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Knee problems are nothing new for Lance Berkman. They’ve been barking at him for nearly a decade now and have cost him all but 22 of his team’s 98 games this season. He took a Clayton Kershaw slider to the right knee — the same one he had surgery on in May — on Tuesday night and has been out of the starting lineup since. Puma did work a pinch-walk last night and was immediately lifted for a pinch-runner.

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In 2009, 25-year-old Adam Lind looked like a breakout star for Toronto. Splitting time between left field and designated hitter, Lind put up a massive .305/.370/.562 line for the Blue Jays, which along with 35 homers earned him some down-ballot MVP support and a Silver Slugger award. That performance earned him a new contract prior to 2010, one which guarantees him $18 million through 2013 and includes team options for up to $38.5 million between 2014-16.

Lind was unable to repeat that line in 2010, as his strikeout rate shot from 16.8% to 23.5% and his OBP sunk nearly 100 points to .287, though he still managed 23 homers. 2011 – now as Toronto’s primary first baseman – saw more of the same, as 26 homers weren’t enough to offset a .251/.295/.439 line. When he struggled even more, hitting just .186/.273/.314 with three homers in May of this year, the Jays removed him from the roster and placed him on waivers, inviting any other team to pick him up for nothing but the cost of his contract.

No one did. Read the rest of this entry »

When Joey Votto underwent surgery on Tuesday to repair meniscus damage in his left knee, it wasn’t just Reds fans who felt the pain; it was any NL-only fantasy player who had hoped for production out of what was long the most reliable source of power in the game.

A year ago at this time, first base in the National League was the place to be. Prince Fielder & Albert Pujols were mashing as usual in Milwaukee & St. Louis. Ryan Howard & Carlos Pena for all their flaws, were still showing power in Philadelphia & Chicago, while Michael Morse was having a breakout year with the Nationals. Topping them all, as far as WAR is concerned, was Votto in Cincinnati. In 2012, with Fielder, Pujols, & Pena off to the American League, and Morse, Howard and now Votto fighting injuries, the position has been decimated. With Votto on the shelf, the most valuable active first baseman in the NL  – believe it or not – is Paul Goldschmidt of Arizona, which just does not feel right.

If there’s a silver lining here, it’s that Todd Frazier is likely to see the bulk of the time at first base for the Reds until Votto is able to return in approximately three to four weeks. The 2007 first-rounder has been excellent in limited time for Cincinnati this year, particularly so in July, with twelve hits (six for extra bases) in eleven games, including eight starts. Frazier isn’t likely to keep up a .382 wOBA for the rest of the year – if he did, and had enough plate appearances to qualify, that would put him just above Jose Bautista & Carlos Beltran – yet even if he manages his rest-of-season ZIPS projection of .251/.315/.456 and nine homers, that gives him value, especially once he gains first base eligibility. Personally, I think he’ll be able to outdo that OBP mark, since he’s shown he can take a walk (9.9% BB rate) and has flashed decent OBP skills (.353) in parts of six minor league seasons. Read the rest of this entry »

On Saturday, I analyzed the five hitters whose HR/FB ratios have increased the most since last season and using various tools and metrics, tried to determine whether we might see a decline in the second half. Today I will look at the opposite end of the spectrum, those hitters whose HR/FB ratios have declined the most. Will they experience a second half power surge?

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Perhaps I shouldn’t have scheduled the rankings week during a vacation week, but this isn’t a normal vacation. My wife and our three-month-old are visiting her sister, her 18-month-old, and her newborn in Hawaii — it wasn’t going to be a vacation like most vacations. In fact, even though rankings are a grueling, thankless task, they offer a respite (a vacation, perhaps) from my vacation.

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With the All-Star break upon us, we finally don’t have to worry about our fantasy teams for a few days. It’s always nice to have that little break, especially when you run multiple teams. Rather than the usual daily waiver wire shtick, let’s take a look at four players who have gone from undrafted and afterthoughts to key contributors in all formats.

Carlos Ruiz | C | Phillies | Preseason ADP: 290 | Owned: 89% Yahoo! and 100% ESPN

Chooch has been, my far, the best hitting catcher in baseball this season. He came into the year with a .265/.357/.393 career batting line which is solid but not exactly worth a fantasy roster spot. The 33-year-old Ruiz carries a .350/.412/.584 (!) line into the break this summer, having already hit a career-best 13 homers with 21 doubles that are just eight shy of his career-high. He’s moved into a more premium lineup spot — fourth or fifth depending on whether or not Ryan Howard plays — and the result has been 46 RBI that are the second most among qualified catchers and eight short of his career-high. His 523 ottoneu points lead all catchers by a significant margin.

Ruiz’s production will likely step back for a number of reasons in the second half, mostly because catchers tend to wear down in August in September. A .362 BABIP and 18.3% HR/FB don’t exactly scream sustainable either. That said, Chooch’s first half production is already in the bank and anyone who grabbed him off waivers in April is surely thrilled.

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Paul Goldschmidt is finally living up to expectations. But it didn’t look that way in April. The 24-year-old first baseman hit just .193/.288/.281 through the first month of the season. As a result, many owners probably dropped him looking for better options. That would have been a huge mistake. Since then, Goldschmidt has been on a tear. He’s managed to raise his slash line to .302/.368/.552. In order to start producing like a stud first baseman, Goldshmidt had to make a few adjustments after his first month.

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