I can’t believe I’m going to write this.

Wade Miley has a 2.12 ERA this season.

It’s just a 63.2 inning sample across twelve starts, but that’s still over a third of a season’s work with sparkling results, including a 1.18 WHIP.

Will this stick? In all likelihood, no. His 4.59 SIERA is nearly 2.5 points higher than the marvelous ERA, inflated by a minute 6.1% HR/FB rate, .260 BABIP, and 80% LOB rate. These numbers are all due to fall as the sample rises.

But this isn’t to say that Miley has had a remarkable season simply by being in the good graces of Lady Luck. Miley has completely revamped his approach:

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9/7/18

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Audio is a little wonky perhaps due to a storm in my area. My internet was a little wobbly, too, so unfortunately it seemed to impact my audio as well. 

 Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Shohei Ohtani needs TJ to pitch again; could hit all of ‘19 – 4:05

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There are some intriguing athletes sprinkled throughout the lowest levels of the minors but this system has fallen on hard times and lacks depth.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Miguel Amaya | C | A —> Amaya, 19, was a monster in the first half of the year before tiring during the latter portion of his first full season (.865 vs .634 OPS). An encouraging sign: He maintained his walk rate while trimming his strikeout rate in the second half despite the diminished offence. In his prime, he should get on base at an above-average rate and produce solid pop. He has work to do on his receiving and game calling but he’s shown potential with throwing out base runners.

2. Adbert Alzolay | RHP | AAA —> It was basically a lost year for Alzolay, who started just eight games before getting hurt. He’s an undersized righty but he can hit the mid-90s and shows flashes of a plus curveball. His makeup is universally lauded so expect him to squeeze out every ounce of potential with a ceiling of a No. 3-4 rage if he gains consistency with the secondary stuff. My biggest concern aside from injury is his fly-ball tendencies.

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I’m highlighting pitchers owned in 20% or few leagues at FanTrax.com

Daniel Norris (15%) vs Cardinals

Where did the 25-year-old’s lefty’s 11.4 K/9 come from? And the 4.6 BB/9? He is pulling a Robbie Ray (12.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9) with an 89-mph average fastball.

After rooting around on his player pages, he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, fastball and slider. Both pitches produce an above average amount of swings-and-misses and flyballs. The flyballs have led to a high number of home runs (1.8 HR/9) hence the inflated 5.49 ERA.

Most of the damage was done before going on the DL (groin surgery). In his one start since returning, he struck out seven Yankees and walked only one batter in 4.1 innings. In the start, his fastball was up to 91 mph.

For owners digging for strikeouts, they should be all in with Norris. The walks still worry me some and owners who need to control their rate stats may want to stay way to see another start. He may be a sneaky recommendation as the season winds down.
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Last September, Jeff and I spent last September highlighting daily starters you could consider picking up for your playoffs and roto stretch run. We’ll be doing the same again this year starting with tomorrow’s super-lite 4-game slate.

(I’ll be citing the FantasyPros roster rates)

Luis Castillo – CIN v. SD (49%)

Castillo entered July with a 5.85 ERA, but has since put together a 10-start run of 3.23 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 55.7 IP with a 26% K rate and 4% BB rate. Two 5 ER duds during the run push the ERA a bit, but he bounced back strong from each one. The Arizona one was kinda weird, too, because he bookended four perfect innings with the five runs in an inning and two-thirds.

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It’s been a banner year for rookie players in 2018. This season we’ve seen the graduation of the minor leagues best all-around prospect (after the obligatory service time manipulation), a two-way phenom contribute on the mound and in the batter’s box, a 19-year-old that began the year in A-ball, and the Yankees continue to profit from their embarrassment of riches.

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I don’t really know. Thanks for reading!

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When I started writing Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts earlier this season, the idea wasn’t to point out trends in small samples so that fantasy owners could act on them right away. That is almost always a bad idea. It was to identify changes in pitcher performance that could conceivably turn into longer-term trends, which in turn could be useful guides for making roster decisions. It could have easily been called Who To Put On Your Watch List.

Now that Labor Day is behind us, there isn’t much time left for small samples to become sufficiently large samples for making decisions. Then again, if you are still in contention, roster decisions will be especially crucial going forward. If you’ve been on autopilot in starting Jon Gray every week, there’s no time like now to consider if he is potentially worth benching. Similarly, if you continue to dismiss John Gant, even as he has shaved close to a run off his ERA over the past four weeks, you may be doing so at your own risk. Or maybe not…
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Since returning from the disabled list (neck nerve impingement), Stephen Strasburg’s fastball velocity has dropped from averaging 96.1 mph to averaging 93.9 mph. For a pitcher known for bringing the heat, the decline immediately impacts his value going forward. The question isn’t if but how much will be the decline.

First, I completely understand Strasburg could get his fastball velocity back as soon as his next start (the chances for this could be another whole article). When determining the 30-year-old righty’s value, I needed to plant a flag at some velocity and then come up with a projection.

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How the Roto Riteup reacts before the Bullpen Report comes out:

Never change, Yolmer. pic.twitter.com/nxgaPWCEaH

— Cut4 (@Cut4) September 3, 2018

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