Let’s do some experimenting. Let’s imagine you drafted a team using only one statistic. What style of baseball are you? Do you love the hitters with speed, bat control, and an eye for tactics? Or, are you more of the home run or strikeout kind of fan? Why can’t you be both, you ask? Well because it’s an experiment and you have to choose one or the other. So…go ahead. Which do you choose? The K% Kings or the Barrel Brothers?

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Cedric Mullins was one of the best breakouts of 2021 with a 30 HR/30 SB season that came out of nowhere. But what comes next? There have been 11 seasons of at least 30/30 since 2011 featuring 10 players and Ryan Braun doing it back-to-back in 2011-12. We actually saw four in 2011 and then two in 2012 before a drought that José Ramírez and Mookie Betts ended in 2018.

Here are all 11:

I wanted to look at what these players did before and after their magical season to see if it might help us with our Mullins projection.

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I’m finally done crunching numbers (part 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8) with late-season pitcher rate stats being the last to go. It’s so monotonous and painstaking, but I’ve learned a few things going through it all.  The Average rises to the top … again with several other projections popping to the top.

First, here are the projections analyzed.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• THE BAT
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• ZIELE (Fantasy Pros)*
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »

83-79 (3rd in Division; 14th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 55 (8th)

RP Wins: 28 (27th)

Saves: 41 (14th)

1+ Save: 10 (Heath Hembree, Mychal Givens 8, Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims 7, Michael Lorenzen 4, Tejay Antone 3, Sean Doolittle, Brad Brach, Josh Osich, Michael Feliz 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Tyler Mahle 210, Luis Castillo 192, Sonny Gray 155, Wade Miley 125)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 7 (Nick Castellanos .309, Jesse Winker .305, Tyler Stephenson .286, Tyler Naquin .270, Jonathan India .269, Joey Votto .266, Kyle Farmer .263)

65+ Runs: 5 (India 98, Castellanos 95, Winker 77, Votto 73, Eugenio Suárez 71)

65+ RBI: 6 (Castellanos 100, Votto 99, Suárez 79, Winker 71, Naquin 70, India 69)

10+ HRs: 9 (Votto 36, Castellanos 34, Suárez 31, Winker 24, India 21, Naquin 19, Farmer 16, Stephenson, Aristides Aquino 10)

5+ SBs: 2 (India 12, Naquin 5)

BEST BUY: Joey Votto

Votto spiked a huge season selling out for power and smashing 36 HR with a .938 OPS in 533 PA. He will be 38 years old next season which is what will keep his price in check and why he is their Best Buy. He is trending around pick-171 in early drafts and I suspect he will remain outside of the Top 150. Even if he doesn’t repeat 2021 – and I doubt he will – this profile feels like a relatively safe .250/30 at CI or UT.

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11/16/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Eduardo Rodriguez to DET (1:47)
• Noah Syndergaard to LAA (7:17)
• José Berríos extension with TOR (13:30)
• Seiya Suzuki announcement incoming (23:46)

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I’m on the home stretch with most of the comparisons (part 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7) already done. Today, the counting stats for the late-season pitcher projections taking center stage. The boys over at Razzball dominated most of the results with the aggregators coming in near the top … again (might be a theme).

First, here are the projections analyzed.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• THE BAT
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• ZIELE (Fantasy Pros)*
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »

82-80 (2nd in Division; 15th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 40 (20th)

RP Wins: 42 (10th)

Saves: 36 (21st)

1+ Save: 7 (Héctor Neris 12, Ian Kennedy 10, José Alvarado 5, Ranger Suárez 4, Archie Bradley, Sam Coonrod 2, Connor Brogdon 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Zack Wheeler 247, Aaron Nola 233, Suárez 107)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Bryce Harper .309, Jean Segura .290, J.T. Realmuto .263, Odúbel Herrera .260)

65+ Runs: 3 (Harper 101, Andrew McCutchen 78, Segura 76)

65+ RBI: 4 (Harper 84, McCutchen 80, Realmuto 73, Rhys Hoskins 71)

10+ HRs: 8 (Harper 35, McCutchen, Hoskins 27, Brad Miller 20, Realmuto 17, Segura 14, Herrera, Didi Gregorius 13)

5+ SBs: 6 (Harper, Realmuto 13, Segura 9, McCutchen, Herrera 6, Travis Jankowski 5)

BEST BUY: Aaron Nola

It was an inconsistent season for Nola as his core skills remained remarkably strong (25% K-BB, 5th in MLB), but managed just a 4.63 ERA due in large part to a 1.3 HR/9 and 8.2 H/9 in 180.7 IP. He isn’t some sneaky sleeper as even those who just look at surface stats will see a 1.13 WHIP and realize he is worth drafting, but I’ll take any sort of discount here and run with it!

Make no mistake, Bryce Harper is an excellent buy, too. I’m a long-time Harper stan even when he was foolishly being regarded as overrated. But I’d rather not use the obvious superstar in this field when possible.

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Free Agents

• Justin Verlander touched 95-96 mph in his latest tryout.

Free agent Justin Verlander has reached 95-96 mph in recent bullpen sessions, as Harold Reynolds said this morning on @MLBNetwork. Verlander, who turns 39 before next season, has said he wants to pitch until age 45. @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 8, 2021

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2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the starting pitching position for 2022. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.

See my other ranks here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

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80-82 (2nd in Division; 16th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 48 (12th)

RP Wins: 32 (20th)

Saves: 39 (18th)

1+ Save: 5 (Emmanuel Clase 24, James Karinchak 11, Bryan Shaw 2, Nick Wittgren, Trevor Stephan 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Triston McKenize 136, Shane Bieber 134, Cal Quantrill 121, Zach Plesac 100)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Amed Rosario .282, Harold Ramirez .268, José Ramírez .266)

65+ Runs: 2 (Ramírez 111, Rosario 77)

65+ RBI: 2 (Ramírez 103, Franmil Reyes 85)

10+ HRs: 6 (Ramírez 36, Reyes 30, César Hernández 18 [total: 21], Bobby Bradley 16, Rosario 11, Austin Hedges 10)

5+ SBs: 7 (Ramírez 27, Bradley Zimmer 15, Myles Straw, Rosario 13, Andrés Giménez 11, Eddie Rosario 9 [total: 11], Oscar Mercado 7)

BEST BUY: José Ramírez

I know it’s a bit boring to pick the 1st rounder of the team, but I also refuse to pretend that Ramirez isn’t the pick here. He is averaging 30 HR and 20 SB per 555 PA over the last five seasons with three of those seasons including 100+ runs and two of them with 100+ RBIs.

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