While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.
Note: Normally players with no MLB experience can be added in NFBC leagues. The first week is the exception so several prospects were added.
Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!
Welcome to the regular season, and welcome to the first in-season edition of Position Player Playing Time Changes! This will be very similar to the Spring Training editions, but with a change to go over.
During Spring Training, the changes had been shown in plate appearances, since every team had a full season to play, but it’ll now be displayed in percentage of remaining plate appearances. T are 700 plate appearances available to each player at the start of the season, but there are only 350 available when the player’s team has played 81 games, for example. So you and I both won’t have to constantly re-contextualize what remaining plate appearance means relative to games played, we’ll stick with percentages now.
To start the year, I’ll be using a cutoff of a 10% plate appearance swing in either direction, but that cutoff will go down as the season goes on (since 10% of 158 games is the same as 5% of 78). Occasionally, I’ll include players a little bit under the cutoff if they’re notable enough. Without further ado, let’s get to it:
Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.
The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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The 2-Start chart is a Monday feature ranking the expected 2-start pitchers. For now, the data is for 2024 until we start getting to 4-5 starts for guys. I am a bit riskier early in the season when it comes to 2-start guys. It does a bit more pressure on the ratios if you eat too many blowups, but we’ve got 6 months to work and ratios can move a lot all year long. And it’s not like I’m just frivolously starting any 2-start arm, either, just that I’ll take on some tougher starts to get the potential gem against one of the worst teams in the league.
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Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome everyone. Tonight I’m sipping on some Early Times Bottled in Bond.
7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Tout Wars changed hosts and we are still having issues getting all the league public, so I just have the results from the 15-team auction that I’m in.
7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:
7:32
see gee: I’m looking for some high-risk, high-upside starting pitchers to gamble on early in the season. Who comes to mind?
7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Brown, Roupp, Severino, Smith-Shawver
7:33
Alex Cora: Did I mess Devers up with my whole you’re my 3B now you’re my DH switcheroo
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Note: Teams will have only played two to three regular season games when I published this list. My guesses for playing time could be off in a day or two. We’re all guesstimating right now.
Spencer Torkelson: After struggling in ’24 (.669 OPS), he was on fire this spring (1.069 OPS) and has been on base seven times in 10 PA as I write this. He needs to added to see if the breakout is real. It might now or never.
Victor Scott II: Scott won the Cardinals centerfield job and could be a great source of a steals (94 SB in ’23) if he can get on base (career .214 OBP).
Lars Nootbaar: While Nootbaar doesn’t dominate any category, he’ll contribute across the board (Steamer600 of 21 HR, 11 SB, .256 AVG) while leading off.
Joey Ortiz: I’m surprised he’s down here, especially since he’s going to be dual qualified soon. Balanced Steamer600 projection of 14 HR, 12 SB, 253 AVG.
Kyle Manzardo: I suspect Manzardo to be one of the most targetted players this weekend because of his Opening Day power outburst (2B, 3B, and HR) and productive Spring Training (.321/.357/.642). The swing-and-miss is still part of his game and could limit his playing time when he slumps.
Otto Lopez: I’m surprised by the draft hate for Lopez. He’s going to play every game and has the potential to hit 10 HR with 30 SB.
Alan Roden: I love the talent but I’m worried about his playing time once Varsho can play in the field. The decision might be who is hitting better, Roden or Will Wagner. Ranked high based on possible upside.
Jacob Wilson윌슨: Historically, 23-year-old has been a low-power, high-contact bat but did hit 4 HR during Spring Training. Take a chance now to see if he can channel his power.
Max Kepler: Expects to play every game with 20 HR power. Safe.
Tommy Pham: Solid outfield option as long as he stays out of trouble.
Michael Massey: Started at second base and hit fifth in his first two games. Solid backup plan.
Gavin Lux: To be fantasy-relevant, he must play almost every game. It was nice to see him hitting cleanup and playing left field on Opening Day with Hays on the IL.
Nolan Schanuel: Solid bat who will play every day. He doesn’t provide the power desired from a first baseman (13 HR in 607 PA in ’24).
Brett Baty: After a great Spring Training (.353/.441/.745, 10% K%), he will get some run at second base with Jeff McNeil hurt. Also, he sat on Opening Day against a lefty starter. I not sure how to rank him but I put him at the top of the platoon bats for possible upside.
Max Muncy (SS, ATH): Muncy has the Athletics’ second base job with Zack Gelof on the IL. Muncy is a respectable prospect (8th in the organization). While not a difference maker in either category, he is a power/speed threat but likely a batting average sink because of an elevated strikeout rate.
Luke Raley: When he has faced righties over his career, he has been dominant (.804 OPS) but useless against lefties (.571 OPS).
Jonathan Aranda: Against a lefty starting on Opening Day, Curtis Mead got the start instead. Over his career, Aranda has a .457 OPS against lefties and .717 against righties.
Ryan O’Hearn: Power-hitting, platoon first baseman. Gamble on the upside of others for now, settle for safety later.
Mike Yastrzemski: Yaz is not the player I’m targeting this early in the season. For years, he has provided some power while only facing righties. I’d rather take a chance on a regular breaking out.
Austin Hays: Hays was supposed to bat cleanup for the Reds but is now on the IL. It’ll be interesting to see if Lux or Hays plays more once Hays is healthy.
Josh Smith: I don’t get the demand (maybe the multi-positions), especially since he is a bench bat. And now hurt.
Tyler Freeman: Traded to Colorado to help fill in at second base for the injured Thairo Estrada. On Opening Day, Freeman wasn’t in the lineup against a lefty, and Kyle Farmer was starting instead.
Catchers
Alejandro Kirk: Depending on a league’s depth and if it’s a two-catcher league, I could see Kirk being a streaming option. For a catcher, he is a nice source of batting average.
Ben Rice: First, check your league rules to see if Rice is a catcher. In at least one of my leagues, he’s not. Solid bat getting DH at-bats.
CBS Hitter Rostership Rates
Name
Previous Roster%
Current Roster%
Change
Mike Yastrzemski RF SF
40%
46%
6%
Kyle Manzardo 1B CLE
39%
47%
8%
Nolan Schanuel 1B LAA
39%
45%
6%
Lars Nootbaar LF STL
38%
47%
9%
Spencer Torkelson 1B DET
37%
50%
13%
Josh H. Smith 3B TEX
35%
41%
6%
Luke Raley LF SEA
35%
39%
4%
Jonathan Aranda 1B TB
33%
37%
4%
Joseph Ortiz SS MIL
29%
33%
4%
Jacob Wilson SS ATH
28%
36%
8%
Alejandro Kirk C TOR
27%
34%
7%
Ben Rice C NYY
23%
41%
18%
Tommy Pham LF PIT
23%
29%
6%
Gavin Lux 3B CIN
19%
24%
5%
Victor Scott II CF STL
17%
49%
32%
Ryan O’Hearn 1B BAL
17%
23%
6%
Brett Baty 2B NYM
16%
33%
17%
Max Kepler LF PHI
15%
21%
6%
Michael Massey 2B KC
12%
17%
5%
Otto Lopez 2B MIA
11%
15%
4%
Austin Hays LF CIN
10%
16%
6%
Alan Roden OF TOR
6%
14%
8%
Max Muncy SS ATH
2%
9%
7%
Tyler Freeman 3B COL
2%
7%
5%
Starters
Note: Besides Giolito, the following list is just guys who made their team’s Opening Day rotation. All should move up as those who didn’t make the cut (or got hurt) will be moving down.
Tylor Megill: After his first start (1 HR, 3 H, 6 K, 1 BB in 5 IP), it may be the last chance to add him. The changes he implemented at the end of last season seem to have stuck.
Landen Roupp: Earlier this week, I wrote up Roupp and discussed why I like his value. A must-roster in deeper leagues to see how he does over his first few starts.
Drew Rasmussen: Wait to see if he can get back to his 2022 production level (2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.0 K/9) after elbow surgery.
Jack Leiter: He seems to have his walks under control after struggling with them in previous seasons. He might end up as a draft-day steal.
José Soriano: It would be interesting to see if he can repeat his 3.42 ERA from last season with his high-groundball nature (60% GB%).
AJ Smith-Shawver: Recently, I wrote up Smith-Shawver and liked his upside if he keeps the walks in check.
Casey Mize: A disappointment over 291 career innings (4.36 ERA, 7.0 K/9), but revamped his pitch mix this spring, bringing back his splitter. It’ll be interesting to see if the change translates to the majors.
Kris Bubic: Returning from elbow surgery. While productive in his return (2.67 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 1.02 WHIP), he only threw out of the bullpen.
Richard Fitts: I don’t have a good read on him. He’s been inconsistent throughout his career, so it’s tough to pin down his talent level. Right now, I see him as a roster-and-bench player to see how his first couple of starts go.
Ben Brown: The issue with Brown is that he only has two pitches (both good), and hitters will get to him more. He has limited upside until he gets that third offering.
Luis L. Ortiz: Still a gamble at this point to see if the Guardians can fix him. It’s not that I’m against him; I like others more.
Sean Burke: An intriguing arm; I just wish he didn’t play for the White Sox. His biggest issue will be walks. Over his minor league career, he posted a 4.9 BB/9 and a 6.8 BB/9 this Spring Training.
Cade Povich: He’s in Baltimore’s rotation, but I’m not sure he’s a difference-maker. I’ll monitor his first few starts from either my bench or the waiver wire.
Chris Paddack: His strikeout and walk numbers point to a 4.00 ERA arm. The problem is that he is just too hittable, especially allowing too many home runs (career 1.4 HR/9). I’m not waiting for him to turn the corner.
Marcus Stroman: Good groundball rate, some strikeouts. Zero upside, so take some darts, and if they fail, settle for Stroman.
Tyler Mahle: In nine major league seasons, he’s had two productive seasons (2020 and 2021). Health has been a major issue the past two, with him throwing a combined 38 IP. Again, I want someone with more upside.
Griffin Canning: In 508 IP over his career, Canning has earned a 4.78 ERA (4.52 xFIP). Maybe the Mets can fix him, but I have my doubts. I’m going monitor his progress from afar.
Logan Allen로건: I was surprised to see Allen make the Guardians rotation. He struggled last season (5.73 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, 7.3 K/9). Monitor him on the waiver wire for changes.
Osvaldo Bido: I liked Bido more when he was in the spacious Oakland Coliseum. His 30% GB% will lead to a ton of flyballs. In the larger park, they were outs. More will go for home runs this year. On top of the home runs, his 3.9 BB/9 means there will be runners on base to score on the homers. Pass until he shows a new talent level.
Lucas Giolito: I’m out until he starts throwing after missing all of 2024. I have low expectations.
Connor Gillispie: He started for Miami on Friday and struggled with 4 BB and 4 ER over 5 IP. He has shown no reason to be fantasy relevant so far.
CBS Starting Pitcher Rostership Rates
Name
Previous Roster%
Current Roster%
Change
Drew Rasmussen SP TB
39%
58%
19%
Kris Bubic SP KC
39%
57%
18%
Casey Mize SP DET
38%
49%
11%
Jack Leiter SP TEX
33%
49%
16%
Jose Soriano SP LAA
30%
43%
13%
Lucas Giolito SP BOS
27%
32%
5%
Luis L. Ortiz SP CLE
22%
29%
7%
A.J. Smith-Shawver SP ATL
20%
41%
21%
Richard Fitts SP BOS
19%
31%
12%
Sean Burke SP CHW
18%
39%
21%
Marcus Stroman SP NYY
17%
28%
11%
Griffin Canning SP NYM
14%
36%
22%
Ben Brown SP CHC
14%
21%
7%
Tylor Megill SP NYM
13%
26%
13%
Cade Povich SP BAL
11%
19%
8%
Tyler Mahle SP TEX
10%
18%
8%
Chris Paddack SP MIN
9%
15%
6%
Osvaldo Bido SP ATH
9%
13%
4%
Landen Roupp SP SF
7%
19%
12%
Logan Allen SP CLE
3%
9%
6%
Relievers: Save-based ranks.
Note: All the arms in committees will be ranked higher as the goal is to get a closer. The odds are better for one to get the job than an established closer lose his job.
Mike Clevinger: OK pitcher who appears to be the closer.
Emilio Pagán: Good reliever who may have the upper hand in a closer committee.
It’s Bold Predictions time!! Check out the rest of the staff’s predictions here. I’m trying to have some spice here while also having a real path to coming to fruition. I know whenever we do these later in draft season there are inevitably some folks who bummed that it comes out when draft season is mostly done, but I promise you these are incorporating players I’ve already discussed at length this offseason so if you’ve been reading my work or listening to the pod, you’re aware of my affinity for these guys. Without further ado…
Honestly, this is a playing time prediction as the skills are already there for Suzuki. He has been a .284 AVG/21 HR/11 SB guy the last two seasons with 583 and 585 plate appearances, respectively. This year, he pushes 650+ with his first fully healthy season and delivers a .290/30/15 season with 95+ R and RBI.
