Daily SP Chart archive
I didn’t get back to yesterday’s piece to write up some comments so I decided to put together Saturday and Sunday boards for y’all.
Angels
• With Anthony Rendon back at his home on the IL, Mike Trout is leading off and Nolan Schanuel is hitting second.
• Luis Rengifo (.692) has started in eight of the last nine games. Read the rest of this entry »
So, I didn’t get picked in the NFL Draft again this year, so I am back with more Roto Riteups!
Here's video of Kyle Isbel's catch if you haven't seen it yet.
Given the weather conditions, one of the better catches I've ever seen. #Royals pic.twitter.com/5P3Bjl9exX
— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) April 25, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
I’ll add some comments in the morning! -Ambitious Paul from last night
OK, I wasn’t able to come back and write up comments for this one, but in exchange I’m putting up a rankings board for Saturday & Sunday!
Welcome to another automated installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:
The data for this article reflects games played through April 24th and only displays Statcast’s four-seam fastball (FF) velocity.
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent decrease | Second recent decrease | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Puk | 94.3 | 93.4 | 91.7 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -1.3 |
| Dean Kremer | 94.4 | 94.2 | 92.6 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.9 |
| Martín Pérez | 92.2 | 91.1 | 90.6 | -0.5 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| Shawn Armstrong | 94.6 | 93.3 | 93.1 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -0.8 |
| Spencer Turnbull | 92.2 | 91.7 | 90.7 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| Luis Castillo | 95.4 | 95.0 | 94.1 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.7 |
A.J. Puk’s velocity decrease was likely a result of shoulder fatigue and he remains on the IL. He is expected back in the first week of May and is reportedly going to rejoin the bullpen. Dean Kremer’s most recent start showcased the most drop in velocity, but he also recorded 10 strikeouts against the Angels in that start. It’s something to keep an eye on as Kremer threw a career-high 172.2 innings in 2023.
4/25/24
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Astros
• The team may be forced to roster and play José Abreu since the owner made the move.
Brown and Espada are in brutal positions. Espada can only play the roster he’s given and Brown did not sign Abreu — owner Jim Crane did during his three-month cameo as a general manager.
Both men are now forced to answer for a problem they did not create. The remaining money and year on Abreu’s contract means Crane is in control of his ultimate fate — and there’s no precedence in his ownership tenure for eating this much money due to underperformance.
Daily SP Chart archive
Not only is it a typically small Thursday slate, but it’s very straightforward, too. Nine of the 13 recommendations got the 3-x treatment as they are either fantasy aces or really solid fantasy options with an elite matchup like Nasty Nestor facing the A’s. And the three 1-x guys are really longshots that you probably won’t (and shouldn’t) start in most situations.
—
At this time last year…
You get the point. This is obviously a random group of 8 pitchers and yes, I “cherry-picked” them in that I found guys who would help underscore my point. What is that point? That it’s early. That’s seemingly the point of everything I write or say in April and while I realize that might be a little repetitive, I think it’s necessary when I see the day-to-day reactions that fantasy managers have to both fast and slow starts alike. The constant standings watching makes manager antsy to “fix things” when patience with the vast majority of your roster is almost always the best idea. Cases like the 8 above are why I’ve really tried to narrow my thinking down to the next 2-4 weeks when it comes player analysis.
Who cares about “rest of season” with someone like Mitchell Parker? Let’s cross each successive bridge as we get to them. For now, I’m picking up the lefty for his start at Miami this weekend and we’ll assess from there. If he throws a gem, I might even start him at Texas next week given what he did to the Astros and Dodgers to open his career. He does line up for Baltimore after the Texas start so the challenges keep coming after this reprieve in Miami (knowing baseball and how silly she often is, he’ll get merked this weekend and bounce back with gems v. TEX & BAL).
From the examples above, we were never anywhere near cutting Burnes or Webb, but you better believe people were asking questions about “what’s wrong” with them, just as we’re seeing this year with the likes of Joe Musgrove, George Kirby, and Jesús Luzardo. And I’ll grant that all three might not bounce back this year, but I’m pretty damn far from even benching any of them, let alone cutting them. Conversely, guys like Griffin Canning (7.50 ERA), Garrett Crochet (6.37), and Logan Allen (5.06) are valid cuts in shallower formats, but don’t forget about them going forward as they could improve their HR rates and be the Kremers and Petersons of this year.
Hell, things move so fast at times that Crochet was the game’s next great ace 3 starts in (2.00 ERA, 21 Ks in 18 IP) and now we’re talking about cutting him in shallower leagues. Again, I know I’ve beat this point home a good bit just in this space let alone on the podcast and in my chats, but I just don’t want fantasy managers making unforced errors with bad decisions that can be avoided. I do want to point out that someone you cut turning it around doesn’t automatically make that a bad decision. As my friend Scott Pianowski points out, if you’re never cutting someone “too soon” in a shallow league, you’re likely holding onto guys too long.
The challenge of shallow leagues is the roster churning. Where you can wait out guys in the bottom quarter of your roster in 15s, you need to burn-and-churn in 10s and 12s hoping to strike gold on the next big breakout. Or even just playing the hot hand with similarly talented players. Sometimes you simply hold a guy in a 15 because there’s nothing better available, but in 10s and 12s, there is always someone with a similar profile talent-wise who might have a better schedule or is playing more often (that’s more a hitter situation, of course).
Don’t be too proud to pick up someone you previously cut if they’re rounding back into form. I can definitely see a situation where Crochet becomes appealing again. But his case is exactly why I’m done worrying about “rest of season” on late round or waiver wire talent. The landscape is far too volatile to have any kind of certainty that far out on most players. With Crochet, volume is always going to be a concern regardless of whether or not he gets back on track anyway, so we’re looking at 2-3 week pockets with him. And maybe, just maybe, the guy we started that list with can reverse what he did in 2023 and instead of a good start going awry, perhaps Hunter Brown can find a rhythm here soon and turn around his horrendous 9.68 ERA through 5 starts.
Thanks for coming out, transcript is below!
| 1:05 |
: Welcome, everyone, thanks for coming out! |
| 1:05 |
: Henry Davis worth holding onto in a 2 catcher keeper league? Been tough so far, is he gonna lose his spot once grandal is back? Top guy on the wire is Patrick Bailey |
| 1:05 |
: I’m OK jumping to Bailey |
| 1:05 |
: Orlando Arcia or Edouard Julien ? 12T Mixed roto |
| 1:06 |
: Think Julien offers more potential fantasy juice |
| 1:06 |
: Considering buying low on Corbin Carroll in Ottoneu. Smart or silly? Is the power decline since July |
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
