Champions League B, an Ottoneu league in which all owners must have previously won an Ottoneu league, had its inaugural auction draft last weekend. First-year auction drafts are compelling and informative, especially when the league is made up of skilled and experienced owners. Theoretically, in first-year auctions, all players should be purchased at or near their actual value. There shouldn’t be too much obvious surplus or too many colossal overpays.

Bargain hunting is a delicate endeavor in a first-year auction. Owners can hunt for potential bargains by targeting players coming off down seasons. Andrew McCutchen comes to mind. So does Yasiel Puig. Buying such players can be risky, because their recent poor play may be indicative of future performance. However, it can also be rewarding, because if the player bounces back he may return more value than his price warrants. Having so-called surplus assets is one of several keys to success in Ottoneu.

McCutchen and Puig saw their value decline because of uncharacteristically poor performance on the field. Another type of player to target when searching for surplus is players coming off injuries. Two specific examples are among the most compelling and potentially undervalued fantasy assets in the game. They’re the same age (29), and they play on the same team. They have remarkably similar career numbers and both had season-ending injuries in 2016. Below are the career totals for underrated co-stars A.J. Pollock and David Peralta: Read the rest of this entry »

Last year at this time, I wrote about a little league called BARF, which is the Bay Area Roto Fantasy league. For those of you not in the know, this is an industry league that I helped organize with my friend RBar Tod owner of the Wreck Room in San Francisco. The idea was to bring together a collection of analyst from the San Francisco Bay Area for a live competitive draft and league.

Year One was a raving success, outside of the fact I finished in fourth place. Danny Zarachy of Giants Pod won on the last day of the season by half a point, but most importantly, the participants really seemed to want to do it again.

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Playing time can make or break a baseball player’s fantasy value. An elite player may not finish above replacement level if he suffers an injury and plays only half the season, and a lackluster player could finish above replacement level simply by playing every single day. This is all intuitive, and the fantasy community generally approaches these kinds of things rationally. In other words, most players are appropriately valued, outside of the market inefficiencies that inevitably warp player values.

One-dimensional speedsters — dudes who steal a bunch of bases and do little else — are much harder to peg. Their value is tied up primarily in one category, as stolen bases (SBs) do not directly correlate with other categories the way home runs would with runs and RBI, for example. The issue becomes all the more confounding when one considers the contemporaneous scarcity of SBs relative to home runs. There’s more to value than just SBs and plate appearances (PAs), but the fact of the matter is the two statistics by themselves correlate very strongly with a player’s end-of-season (EOS) value (which, here, are informed by Razzball’s Player Rater).

In the last five years, baseball has seen 75 player-seasons of 30-plus SBs — 15 steals a year on average, a trend that didn’t fundamentally change in 2016 (although that doesn’t mean SBs aren’t scarce). A simple linear regression of SBs and PAs, the latter of which serves as a proxy for other counting stats such as runs and RBI, against EOS value produces a remarkable 0.71 adjusted R²:

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This is a new series for the fantasy draft season where I’ll be tracking differences in the NFBC average draft that is referenced regularly throughout the community and can be found here. Each Sunday I’ll pull the data, compare it to the previous week, and then deliver my key findings. You will still need to synthesize the data into something applicable for your leagues, especially if you don’t play in the NFBC, but this is the game’s sharpest market so I think it’s worth following.

(This will usually drop on Monday or Tuesday, but with the rankings roll out, it was delayed a day.)

BIGGEST RISER: Neftali Feliz – up 48 spots to pick 327

He signed in Milwaukee over a month ago, but the market is working down an ADP that was essentially non-existent so I wouldn’t even get comfortable with the 327 average. With a Max Pick of 713, his only value was as a late-round draft pick for the Draft Champions leagues (50-round, draft and hold) before joining the Brewers where he is likely to close. His Min Pick of 167 is only down two spots, so I’m sure it’s a lot of slotting in the 167-200 range that is steadily moving his ADP. That range slots him in the early-20s among relievers, which feels right given the resurgent velocity and strikeout rate plus an opportunity.

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This is not a “sleeper” list. Read the rest of this entry »

Our report on the first half of our NFBC Slow Draft received reviews that were decidedly, um, mixed. But mixed reviews didn’t deter the producers of Batman vs. Superman from offering a sequel, and they’re not deterring us. We won’t revisit the background information about the draft or the strategy with which we approached it; it’s there at the start of the first installment. We’ll just report our selections, and comment when comment seems called for. And remember, folks, this is the second half of a 50-player draft. If everything goes perfectly, which of course it won’t, almost none of these guys will crack our starting lineup. Many of them are strictly spare parts. So “Ewww! Eduardo Escobar” is uncalled for.

Draft Position 374. Scott Schebler and 377. Francisco Liriano. Liriano, at least in 2017, is the kind of pitcher you take when you have a deep bench. We suspect that his career as a starting pitcher is over. He was very bad with Pittsburgh in the first four months of last season—his ERA third time through the order was 10.04–and while he helped Toronto a lot in the August and September, he still had trouble getting past the fourth inning in his 8 starts: ERA, innings 1 through 4, 1.97; ERA thereafter, 5.28. We’re not counting on him. But we got him cheap (his NFBC Average Draft Position is 324), he can still get strikeouts, he’s already penciled in to the Blue Jays’ rotation, and maybe we’re wrong about him. Read the rest of this entry »

Over my many years of fantasy experience, I’ve come to recognize two methods of building a roster. Method 1: an owner targets very specific players and fills around those as needed. Usually, the owner aggressively shops those filler players. Method 2: Every player is treated as a generic asset, sorted into classes. Today, we’ll talk about the pros and cons of both approaches.

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Many years ago, before I ever dreamed of becoming a fantasy sports analyst, I dreamed of competing in industry leagues. I had no idea how people were chosen and no idea how exclusive they were, but I had a dream that one day I would win Tout Wars, LABR, or CBS. I never thought it would actually happen, but when I joined the industry in 2014, that dream returned. I then learned that there were tons of industry leagues. Many were not exclusive, but those big three were. I figured it would take me the better part of a decade to get in. So, I started my own, the Bay Area Roto Fantasy league (BARF), which drafts its second season in about ten days. However, I still dreamed of being in one of the big three. Read the rest of this entry »

Back to our originally scheduled schedule with a report on our (still ongoing) NFBC slow draft. The mise-en-scene: 15 teams, 50 rounds, up to 8 hours to make a pick, no in-season transactions. The dramatis personae: people who (a) in the month of January are reasonably conversant with and able to distinguish microscopically among the statistics, orthopedic well-being, and prospects of at least 700 professional baseball players, and (b) are willing to attend to–indeed, obsess over–this process, to the exclusion of sound hygiene and personal responsibilities. In short, our kind of guys.

Our draft selections were animated, or, if you prefer, enervated, by certain strategic considerations:

–We detected, or thought we detected, something of a dropoff between the first 20 or so likely draftees and the next group. Conversely, we thought that numbers 8 through 15 were approximately equal. And, having always drafted in the middle of the pack before, we hoped to avoid the frustration of being unable to plan effectively because we’ve always had to wait six or seven picks to make our next move. So, if we couldn’t draft in the first four, we were happy to draft in the last four. We wound up drafting 14th, which was fine with us. Read the rest of this entry »

2/14/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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LABR Draft

Jason and I talk through our first handful of rounds for Monday night’s LABR Mixed Draft. The results of which you can find by clicking here.

We shifted to the chat after that and you can find the transcript here.

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