Few teams have an outfield as “set in stone” as the St. Louis Cardinals. The team nearly missed making it to the World Series, losing a drawn-out seven-game series to the eventual World Series Champion San Francisco Giants, and they did it while getting a combined 12.8 WAR from the three guys expected to man the outfield in 2013. So while the team’s outfield features three “safe” fantasy bets for the 2013 season, there’s a wild card hidden away here that may pay fantasy dividends at the end of the season.

Left Field

Consistency, thy name is Matt Holliday. Aside from the loss of his stolen base totals from the mid-00s, Holliday has hardly dropped off one bit in terms of fantasy production. Playing in all but five games in 2012, Holliday delivered his usual combination of runs (95), RBI (102), homers (27), and batting average (.295). Do you play in an OBP league? Holliday does that too, posting a .379 on-base percentage last season. And though he may have struck out just a hair more than in previous seasons, all signs look good from a peripherals standpoint.

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The Astros’ bullpen is a mishmash of waiver claims, Rule V selections and players looking to resurrect their career. None of the following names will appear high on your cheat sheets this draft season — if they appear at all — but some of these arms could provide fair value for those unwilling to pay for saves or holds in 2013.

The closer:

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The Milwaukee Brewers no longer have Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum pitching two out of every five games, but don’t sleep on the Brewers’ potential rotation for the 2013 season. It should still provide fantasy value for owners on draft day.

The starting rotation for Milwaukee last year compiled a combined 8.37 K/9 strikeout rate, which ranked best in all of baseball. Not all of that can be attributed to Greinke and Marcum, either. Four starters struck out more than a batter per inning — Mark Rogers, Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Yovani Gallardo — and all four could secure roles in the Opening Day starting rotation for the Brewers.

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This offseason proved to be rough on the Milwaukee Brewers. Their star player has been linked to performance enhancing drugs, and their right-fielder will miss the beginning of the season with a knee injury, and will now be playing first base. All of this seems strangely familiar, no? But both issues proved to be overblown last year. Ryan Braun’s test was overturned, leading to another strong performance. Corey Hart returned from his knee injury and didn’t miss a beat, basically posting his career-averages with slightly more power. If they hope to contend, the Brewers need a repeat performance this season.

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Oakland’s bullpen should be largely unchanged from 2012 save for the addition of a couple pieces in the middle relief department. Their late inning relievers have impressive peripherals and should serve again as a core strength as they look to repeat as American League West champions. They also seem likely to be a nice collection of guys for rate-hungry owners since their home park should help keep their HR/FB% suppressed and their ERAs slightly lower than their park-regressed xFIPs.

The closer:
Grant Balfour

Balfour had an up-and-down 2012. He opened the season as closer, but eventually lost the gig in early May. All was not lost for Balfour owners who stashed, however, and he reclaimed the role in August and didn’t look back, holding opponents to a .125/.200/.167 triple-slash down the stretch. He’s now 35, but still had a firm grasp on a mid-20’s K% last year and should remain effective in ninth inning. His age and contract does make him a trade candidate for a team that has traditionally moved closers (such as Andrew Bailey) near the apex of their value, so owners should keep an eye on that come June and July.

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The Angels enter 2013 as at least a contender — if not the favorite — to win a suddenly-stacked AL West. The Astros are the only team that appear out of contention from the outset, and even there we see an organization that is improving by leaps and bounds every day. The Mariners have an impressive stable of pitching prospects, and the Rangers and A’s are no doubt fresh in our minds as the two clubs who battled it out down the stretch.

But you don’t necessarily care about division races. You want to know what the depth chart looks like for the Halos this year. Let’s do this. Read the rest of this entry »

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter 2013 with higher expectations than what we’re probably used to. They are, after all, the same Pirates that haven’t had a winning record since before there was anything called the National League Central division (1992) and their 79 wins in 2012 matched their best season in fifteen years. So the bar might not be set terribly high. But after starting the season 47-38, there is residual optimism left over, and much of it is wrapped up in some of the great young talent they will feature in 2013. And the Pirate outfield happens to be one of the bright spots.

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The Seattle Mariners came into the 2012 season with plenty of hype surrounding their young hitters. Dustin Ackley was poised to improve on his .337 wOBA as a rookie in 2011, and Jesus Montero was considered a can’t-miss bat who was going to try and play catcher. Kyle Seager also took over third base on a full-time basis, and Justin Smoak was finally going to realize his potential at the plate.

Many fantasy owners jumped on the bandwagon, but the wagon seemingly broke down early in the season and was unable to recover. As a team, the Mariners compiled a league-worst .291 wOBA and scored the least amount of runs in the American League with 619. In fact, the next-closest American League team in runs was the Cleveland Indians, who outscored the Mariners by 48 runs on the season.

That’s not to say owners were foolish for jumping on the bandwagon. Many promising, young position players struggle to make the transition to the big leagues, and one lousy season does not define a young player’s development. Not to mention, in Ackley’s case, he not only had to deal with opposing teams having ample time and video to adjust to his various strengths and weaknesses, but he also added a painful bone spur in his left ankle to the equation.

The depth chart is murky, though, because the Mariners have several infield prospects rising up the system who enjoyed significant success last season. There are no blatant playing-time battles this spring, but if anyone spins their wheels coming out of the gate once again, the organization could look to explore other young, internal options.

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It’s hard to say that there’s a lot of drama in Angels camp this spring. There’s little doubt about the starting nine, and even the five rotation spots seem pretty secure unless injury issues flare up, most likely with Joe Blanton or Tommy Hanson.

So while Mike Scioscia can focus mainly on getting his team ready for the season without having to make a lot of roster choices — unless they’re the surprise landing spot for Kyle Lohse — the one area that does seem to have some uncertainty is in the bullpen, particularly the ninth inning. The original plan was that Ryan Madson would come to town to be the team’s closer, despite missing all of 2012 before ever throwing a pitch for Cincinnati. Despite the injury, there was merit to the idea; Madson was an effective if under-appreciated arm for years in Philadelphia before putting up 32 saves in 2011 when Brad Lidge finally melted down. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners bullpen packs quite the punch, with four guys at the back end who have the potential to strike out nearly one-third of the batters they face. Unfortunately for Seattle, there might not be as many holds or saves available to these guys as they would like, but for owners looking for rates there is plenty of fantasy relief upside tucked away in the Pacific northwest.

The closer:
Tom Wilhelmsen

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