It’s no secret that Petco Park is a pitcher’s park. But for the sake of putting a face with a name, or rather some numbers with a narrative, I’ll point out that according to our basic park factors Petco was tied for the second most pitcher-friendly park last year. And prior to last year Petco had the lowest basic park factor in the league for nine straight seasons after opening in 2004.

Last summer, Bradley Woodrum discussed the changes made to Petco prior to the 2013 season and how they are affecting offense in the park. Offense is on the rise to some degree and that’s consistent with Petco not being the most pitcher-friendly park in the league last year for the first time in its existence. But it’s hard to say exactly how much the dimensions are bolstering offensive production. What we can say with some certainty is that even though it may not be the most pitcher-friendly park, it’s still safely pitcher-friendly.

Because of the nature of the park, pitchers for the Padres are always interesting to fantasy owners. So who is in line to potentially get the Petco bump this year? Below is a chart showing the five San Diego starters projected to throw the most innings along with their Steamer projections. Read the rest of this entry »

Based strictly on run prevention, the Giants starting rotation had consistently been one of the best staffs in baseball. Until 2013. Rather than once again rank in the top 10 in ERA, the collective group of starters posted a mark that ranked just 24th. Their disappointing performance could be illustrated by this sexy graph:

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The Braves bullpen put up some fantastic numbers last season. A lot of it had to do with Craig Kimbrel’s gaudy numbers, but the group as a whole was pretty good. They were the fifth best bullpen according to WAR and had the second best ERA backed up by the best xFIP and the second best SIERA. The scary part is that they added to the unit by dealing Tommy Hanson for Jordan Walden.

The Closer

Craig Kimbrel

You could go on and on about how great Kimbrel was last year and post an endless list of crazy stats. But the short version is this: Kimbrel led relievers in K% and only one guy was within 10 percentage points of him. He also led the league in K/BB, xFIP, and SIERA while trailing only Fernando Rodney in ERA. He’s the undisputed #1 closer this year. Unfortuantely, that means he’s going way too high in drafts. The latest you can get Kimbrel is probably somewhere in the 40’s, and you just can’t pass on the quality hitters still available at that point to take a closer. Read the rest of this entry »

The Boston Red Sox have experienced massive turnover amongst their position players over the last year. No more Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Mike Aviles or Cody Ross. They will be replaced by a combination of free-agent signees and internal prospects, and the organization hopes the new faces will help the offense improve from last season’s mediocre output. Boston finished with a 12th-ranked .316 wOBA and a 94 wRC+.

For fantasy owners, the trick will not only be assessing whether the Red Sox will ultimately improve with the bats, but also who projects to get early playing time. David Ortiz is doubtful for the start of the season with Achilles / leg problems, while Stephen Drew may begin the year on the disabled list due to concussion symptoms.

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I’m probably not the only person checking the Weather Channel for reports of Hell freezing over. One day you’ve got All-Stars at every position and the next you have Juan Rivera, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, and Vernon Wells occupying starting roles. I actually find it an endearing crew of misfits to root for, but I’m not sure many Yankee fans would agree with me. But this post isn’t about the lineup, it’s about the rotation, where the Yankees have had at least a modicum of stability through the winter.

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The Orioles bullpen doesn’t appear to have all of the bright flashing lights and fancy names like some of the others in the league, but there could be some fine value to be had for fantasy owners in deeper leagues that reward holds.

The Closer:

Jim Johnson

Surprising to many, Jim Johnson finished the 2012 season with a league-leading 51 saves and a seventh place finish in the Cy Young race. The right-hander’s success could be attributed to the increased use of the two-seamer which led to a 62.3% GB% in 71 appearances. He failed to earn the swings-and-misses (6.9% SwStr%, 15.2% K%) that most expect from a true “closer,” but he maintained more-than-reasonable ratios (2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and induced enough ground balls to lockdown the ninth and make him a valuable asset to those who invested. We could very well see a repeat of Johnson’s 2012 ratios and whiffs, but don’t expect 51 saves and you won’t get your heart-broken.

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The Yankees’ outfield has undergone quite a transformation not just since last season, but since the start of Spring Training. Since Grapefruit League games started in late-February, the Yankees have lost Curtis Granderson to injury (fractured forearm), released Matt Diaz, traded for Vernon Wells (still unofficial, but it will happen), and signed two players off the scrap heap after they were released by other clubs. Here’s the outfield alignment the team is looking at come Opening Day…

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The Orioles were a middling offense last year, ranking in the middle of the pack in runs scored and combined wOBA. But they did hit the second-most home runs in the league. That power streak extended to the infield, where the Orioles boast some elite power options at first base, catcher and shortstop.

Add a heralded, young third baseman into the mix, and Baltimore has one of the more intriguing crops of infielders in the American League.

When analyzing the depth chart, second base raises the most obvious question mark in regards to playing time. Brian Roberts should break camp as the everyday option at second, but fantasy owners can reasonably expect him to lose plate appearances throughout the year — whether that’s due to injury or ineffectiveness. He’s 35 years old and has only played in 115 games in the past three seasons. And when he has been in the lineup, the Brian Roberts circa 2005-2009 has been nowhere in sight. In those last 115 games over three seasons, he’s only hit .244/.308/.648 .340 with seven home runs. That’s simply not useable at second base.

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The 2012 season proved to be disappointing for the Philadelphia Phillies, who finished in third place in the NL East, so it’s not a stretch to say the roster was littered with underperformers. The outfield was no different. The Phillies’ outfielders combined for a .320 wOBA, which was tied for 19th in Major League Baseball. Changes were needed.

The organization began its outfield shakeup last summer, when they traded both Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence to the NL West, and it continued this winter when they moved to acquire center fielder Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins. Needless to say, Opening Day in 2013 will look very different in the outfield for the Phillies than it did a year previously.

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Not a whole lot of doubt as to who we’ll be seeing in the Toronto outfield, is there? Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus, & Jose Bautista are the pretty obvious starting trio — with one potentially intriguing twist that we’ll get to in a second. Read the rest of this entry »