After yesterday’s somewhat abbreviated slate of eleven games, we’re back at full strength today. Fifteen games, and outside of the midwest, the weather looks great. The following games might have some weather issues; listed in chance of precipitation from most likely to least likely: San Francisco at Chicago (AL) [40%], Kansas City – Detroit [30%], and Cincinnati – Pittsburgh [30%]. There are a couple more games that have a 20% of precipitation, but those forecasts typically don’t end up ruining much of anything. I’m not purposely avoiding any game today, except for maybe San Francisco at Chicago; that game does have some nice matchups, though, if you’re willing to roster the players involved.

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Professor Pony is out selling himself on the street-corner to fuel his figurine habit, so you’re left with me in today’s Roto Riteup.

On today’s agenda:
1. Kyle Parker gets the call
2. Matt Wieters meets Tommy John
3. A Bronson Arroyo Milestone
4. The Fixed Five

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Agenda

1. The World Cup
2. Daily DFS
3. Tuesday Picks
4. Table

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On Friday Dave Cameron had an excellent piece detailing how good rest-of-season projections are at, you know, projecting what will happen in the rest of the season. In the piece, Dave cited the work of Mitchel Lichtman at length. Go read the piece and you’ll see convincing evidence that if you want to know how a player is going to perform from here on out, you should just go look at his rest-of-season projections. Throw out what the player has done so far this year. Just look at the projection.

This topic is one of the utmost importance to daily fantasy players. This research tells us that, on the aggregate, the projection systems can tell us with virtual precision what’s going to happen the rest of the way. How is that not valuable to a daily fantasy player? The problem is, of course, that little qualifier I used: on the aggregate. The projection systems can take a group of players and tell us what they’re going to do on the whole. They can’t tell us which players are going to over-perform and which are going to under-perform so that the group reaches the expected average. And they certainly can’t tell us what each player will do on each specific day along the way. But the good news is that if you trust the system throughout, you’ll receive the positive results along with the negative results to bring you to the expected result, which is what you wanted all along.

I’ve mentioned several times that I use rest-of-season projections as the basis of my DFS system. I use the knowledge I have that the projection system doesn’t from time to time, but for the most part I just go with what the numbers tell me. And the evidence tells me that’s a good idea.

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Hopefully enough of you Roto Riteup readers watched the San Antonio Spurs absolutely trounced the dumb Miami Heat for the third straight game. If not, I don’t approve of your life, and I think you should leave.

On today’s agenda:
1. On tap: Rubby De La Rosa and Carlos Martinez
2. Erick Aybar hurts his hip
3. Nick Martinez impresses the author
4. The Finite Five

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Happy Sunday, and happy father’s day, if you happen to be one of those. If not, well, way to play safe.

There are no off days for any MLB dads today, as we’ve got a full 15-game slate, with 10 of those starting at 2:15 of earlier. That means when rosters lock around 1:05, you should have a large enough pool of will-play players to avoid the risk of surprise off days. Sundays are great for that (although, as always, I have to write this well before that point, so be sure to check the recommendations are suiting up).

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Today is the the 26th anniversary of “Bull Durham” being released. The “I believe” speech is a pretty great rant (warning: language), even though I personally like the designated hitter.

On today’s agenda:
1. Jake Peavy’s strong start
2. The return of A.J. Ellis
3. Some (very) early thoughts on Eugenio Suarez
4. The daily five

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Agenda

1. Happy Father’s Day
2. Daily DFS
3. Monday Picks
4. Table

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Andrew McCutchen is really good. Groundbreaking stuff, I know. McCutchen gets a ton of a press; he did win the MVP last year, after all. Despite that, it feels like we don’t talk about the things that make him so, so good enough.

So far this season, among qualified batters, six batters have walked more than they’ve struck out. Those batters are: Victor Martinez, Jose Bautista, Coco Crisp, McCutchen, Kurt Suzuki, and Carlos Ruiz. Martinez has accomplished this feat by only striking out 6.6% of the time; Suzuki has taken that same path, striking out 8.1% of his plate appearances. Bautista has done so by slashing his strikeout rate, while also upping his walk rate a little closer to his unbelievable 2011 campaign. Crisp and Ruiz have been able to keep the scale in their favors by walking at a career high clip. As for McCutchen? He’s maintained his contact rate, while chasing even fewer pitches out of the zone. Only seven qualified batters have chased a fewer percentage of pitches out of the strike zone.

In 2012, McCutchen slashed .327/.400/.553, good for a 158 wRC+; 2013, .317/.404/.508, 155 wRC+. This year, his line is: .321/.435/.550, 177 wRC+. McCutchen’s hitting for the same amount of power he did in 2012 (.229 ISO versus .226), while besting his career high walk rate by more than 3%. Andrew McCutchen is an incredible player, and he’s currently maxing out every portion of his offensive profile. It’s a thing of beauty.

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Agenda

1. Some Picks From Scott Spratt
2. Daily DFS
3. Sunday Picks
4. Table

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