Brad Johnson, an author here at Fangraphs that you’ve probably read numerous times, wrote a little bit about luck the other day. It’s definitely more prominent in daily fantasy than the standard roto setups that we all normally play. Daily fantasy is fun. We get to draft a new team every day, perhaps win a little money, and scoreboard watch. However, it can also be so, so maddening.

For example, one night last week I entered a tournament on Draftstreet and missed winning anywhere from $300-$500 (depending on my ultimate finish) by 1.5 points. Brad Miller gave me zilch, but it wasn’t his fault. The combination of the terrible playing surface in Oakland and the error in judgement made by the groundskeepers, probably cost me. But, on the bright side, at least my lineup construction got me close in the first place?

To echo Brad once more, you’ll likely have nights where you barely lose. You’ll have a few nights where you play matchups and definitely have the edge, but someone of the Kevin Correia ilk will toss a shutout and completely blow up your chances. That doesn’t mean you’re terrible at picking a lineup; you just got a bad beat. Keep pushing and playing the right matchups and you can definitely make some money. And hopefully we can help you do that.

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We’re a little over a week into the season at this point, and while it’s still much too early to draw any meaningful conclusions from the games that have been played, we might as well have a little fun.

If you had asked me at the beginning of the season which teams I’d be inclined to choose opposing pitchers against. I likely would have chosen: Miami, Houston, Philadelphia,  & Minnesota. San Francisco wouldn’t have made the cut, but I wouldn’t have been terrified to plug in a pitcher against them. Here we are, after 8 or so games, and those offenses are ranked first, twenty-third , eighth, fourth, and second, respectively, in runs scored. At least I would have been correct on the Astros? I’m not sure that counts for much, though.

Going forward, I’m not betting on any of the five above offenses to continue producing at a high level, except for San Francisco. The Giants offense can be scary when Posey and Co. are hitting on all cylinders, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they were a well oiled machine for most of the remaining season. Although, I’m pretty sure Brandon Hicks won’t do his best Babe Ruth impression all season.

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Agenda

1. One week down
2. Thin day DFS
3. Normal fantasy on Tuesday
4. Look at the colors

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Last year I took a look at the catchers and pitchers who were the worst at preventing stolen bases. The idea was that you could pick good base stealers when someone in the opposing battery was friendly to steals. Recently a reader asked me to update that study to include 2013’s stats. I was planning on doing just that, but the more I think about it, the more I realize it’s not a strategy you should employ on Draftstreet.

On a quick side note, if I had updated that study, it would have been more beneficial to just look at pitchers. As Blake Murphy pointed out on Thursday, Max Weinstein has recently done some research showing that the pitcher bears more of the responsibility of preventing stolen bases.

But the bigger reason the study isn’t worth updating is because of what I discussed last Monday, lineup stacking. Research has shown that upside increases the bigger your stack, and Draftstreet only allows you to use four players from the same team in a lineup. Research has also shown that downside decreases with each step down from no stacking to four man stacks before it starts to rise. That makes four man stacks an obvious strategy.

In a Draftstreet lineup that has nine slots for hitters, it makes the most sense to use two four-man stacks or three three-man stacks. If you use the three-man stacks, there’s not an extra slot in your lineup into which you can slot a speedster with a good matchup. And if you’re using two four-man stacks, you usually don’t have the flexibility for that last hitter slot to get a speedster into it. You should be picking your two stacks, picking your three pitchers, and then filling your last slot with the most expensive guy that fits in your remaining budget and has the platoon advantage.

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Ahh, the first true Sunday of the baseball season. Is there anything better than a lazy Sunday with 15 games? Sure, it’d be nice if they were staggered a little better (there are only two 4 p.m. starts), but your day from lunch to dinner should be pretty damn sweet.

It’ll be extra sweet if you can make a few ducats, so let’s take a look at the daily fantasy situation, where we’re projected to go rainout-free with sunshine all around the league. It’s like the sky is one big Munenori Kawasaki smile today.

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Agenda

1. The role of luck in DFS
2. DFS Info
3. Monday fantasies
4. The standard table

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Agenda

1. Grumbling
2. The Top Four Things to Optimize in DFS
3. DFS Stacks (Early, Late)
4. Sunday Pitchers for the Normal Guys
5. Sur La Table

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The first weekend of all day viewing is upon us, and it’s only fitting that we’ll have an opportunity to see multiple aces in action.  It’s also fitting, and quite welcoming, that weather forecasts today look fantastic.  The only game with a better than nominal chance for rain takes place in Houston, which has a retractable roof, so yay. And thankfully to the new television rules, you can tune in to any out of area game today on MLB.tv.

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Agenda

1. A Tip About Stacking
2. DFS Stacks
3. Traditional Fantasy Picks
4. Table Time

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So, Wednesday didn’t quite go as planned, but it was still a moderately successful day. I took a small shot at Aaron Harang, and he subsequently threw 6.2 innings of shutout baseball. I also recommended two Tigers – Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler – because Jason Vargas usually fairs poorly against righties. Kinsler performed well, but other than his home run Vargas outperformed my expectations. Baseball is as unpredictable as ever and I, for one, am glad to see its wonky ways are back in my life.

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