The bullpen in St. Louis is in a state of transition. After handing the ball to Jason Isringhausen in high-leverage situations since 2002, the Red Birds will now have to cobble together another closer. Izzy (now a free agent) battled injuries (knee, hand, elbow) and was generally ineffective, posting a 4.87 FIP and a -2.97 WPA in 2008. Overall, St. Louis’ relief corps turned in a season to forget, finishing 25th in the majors in FIP and 22nd in WPA.

Luckily, hope is on the horizon in the form of a big-bodied, hard-throwing righty: Chris Perez. A 2006 supplemental first-round pick out of the University of Miami, Perez made quick work of the minor leagues in ascending from A-ball to the big leagues within a two-year period. Listed at 6-4, 225 pounds (but appearing to weigh considerably more than that), Perez used his searing upper-90’s fastball and occasionally wicked slider to rack up 147 strikeouts in 109 career minor league innings (12.1 K/9). The former Hurricane surrendered just 61 hits along the way.

While Perez has shown the ability to miss bats aplenty, he has also had his fair share of trouble in finding the strike zone. The 23 year-old issued 72 walks in the minors, a whopping 5.94 per nine innings. Suffice it to say, he’s going to need to harness his control in order to become a guy entrusted in the late innings, rather than the next Kyle Farnsworth (although Farnsy enjoys unfathomable job security at the moment).

When Perez reached St. Louis in mid-May, he continued to tantalize with his K rates and high-octane stuff while also frustrating with his command hiccups. On the positive side, Perez highlighted his closer-worthy talent, pumping in fastballs at an average of 95.2 MPH (used 75% of the time) and complementing the heater with an 85.1 MPH slider (utilized nearly a quarter of the time). That dastardly combo led to plenty of swings and misses, as Perez punched out 9.07 batters per nine innings in 41.2 frames. Control, however, continued to elude the portly right-hander: he allowed 4.75 BB/9, which led to a 4.33 FIP.

At the moment, the Cardinals’ official depth-chart lists Perez as the club’s closer. Whether he holds that distinction when the games start remains to be seen. In an interview with Matthew Leach of MLB.com, Cards skipper Tony La Russa appeared non-committal when asked about his high-leverage horses for the ’09 season:

“You still want to improve your bullpen,” La Russa said. “We still want to try. I know we talked about it. The optimum thing is not to ask Chris or Jason to close in ’09. Let them grow into the role when they’re ready to take it. So who else is out there?”

That interview did take place a month ago, but it serves to show that while St. Louis might admire Perez’s long-term upside, the team is not wedded to the idea of handing over 9th-inning duties to him from day one in 2009. In the publication’s 2009 organizational rankings, Baseball America summed up Perez’s situation perfectly: “Command and inexperience continue to block Perez from being dubbed St. Louis’ closer…he’ll ascend to the ninth once he improves his grip on his repertoire.”

With St. Louis’ late-game ‘pen anything but settled, Perez is certainly someone to watch closely. His strengths (missing bats, plus velocity and a sometimes-nasty slider) peg him as a candidate for important innings, but his progress in harnessing his control and command will dictate just how valuable he becomes. Fantasy owners might just want to follow La Russa’s line of thinking: don’t rush out and anoint Perez just yet, but keep an eye on him with the idea that he could play a larger role down the line.

In many respects, the Detroit Tigers were a disappointing entity in 2008. Preseason prognosticators held a generally sunny outlook for the men from the Motor City on the belief that a Miguel Cabrera-infused offense and a Justin Verlander/Jeremy Bonderman-led rotation would lead to a postseason berth. Instead, Detroit limped to a 74-88 record and a similarly disappointing 78-84 Pythagorean Record.

While the offense didn’t reach the hyperbolic expectations that some held, the Tigers did plate the 4th-most runs in the American League. Where the team truly disappointed was in the run-prevention department: the club ranked 26th in starter FIP, and the bullpen also turned in a wretched performance, ranking 27th in both FIP and WPA. Detroit’s lackluster leather didn’t help things (they ranked 24th in Defensive Efficiency and 27th in UZR/150), but injuries and poor showings on the mound doomed the Tigers to a distant fourth-place finish.

Detroit ostensibly took a step toward fixing their leaky bullpen, inking former Blue Jay, Red Sock and D-Back Brandon Lyon to a one-year, $4.25M deal. Just how much will the 29 year-old aid the Tigers in upgrading a depleted ‘pen?

Lyon’s last three campaigns are a great example of why ERA is such a misleading statistic for relievers. Based on his ERA’s…

2006: 3.89
2007: 2.68
2008: 4.70

..one would assume that Lyon was decent in ’06, great in ’07 and kind of lousy in 2008. However, not a whole lot changed in Lyon’s repeatable skills over that time frame. Rather, the flyball righty (career 41.6 GB%) was the beneficiary of an extremely low HR/FB rate during that superficially impressive 2007 season: only 2.2% of Lyon’s flyballs left the ballpark that year, compared to 9.7% in ’06 and 9% in ’08. After that run of good luck in 2007, Lyon had the misfortune of posting a .355 BABIP this past year.

Here’s a look at his three-year Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), which evaluates a pitcher based on his strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate (thus rooting out Lyon’s wacky ’07 campaign):

2006: 4.18 XFIP
2007: 4.78 XFIP
2008: 4.33 XFIP

As you can see, Lyon’s ’07 season was actually his least effective campaign in recent years. On the positive side, Lyon posted the best walk rate of his career in 2008 (1.97 BB/9) and his K rate (6.67) was the highest since his lone season with Boston in 2003.

Marcel projects Lyon to pitch 62 frames in 2009, with a 3.98 FIP. That projection was made before Lyon switched to the DH league. He will however be moving from a great hitter’s park (Chase Field) to a slight hitter’s venue in Comerica Park. Let’s say that Lyon’s projection increases slightly, to a 4.05 FIP. Given those parameters, Lyon’s fastball/curve mix figures to be worth about 5 runs above what a replacement-level reliever (4.75 FIP) would produce. If we multiply Lyon’s 5 RAR by the average Leverage Index of a closer (about 1.8) to give him some additional credit for pitching more critical innings, he figures to be worth about .9 WAR, or about $4.05 million using a $4.5M/WAR scale.

So, Lyon figures to be worth most of the money that the Tigers will pay him, and he is coming off a season in which he posted the highest strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. Adding a guy like Brandon Lyon to a club’s bullpen is not in itself a problem. Where the problems lies for the Tigers is that Lyon just might be the best option that they have for the late innings, considering Fernando Rodney‘s flammability and Joel Zumaya’s tenuous health.

Lyon seems like the guy who’s going to rack up the glory stat in Detroit, so he merits attention on draft day. Just don’t reach for him- plenty of other relievers have similar skill sets and talent levels. The only thing that separates Lyon is that he enters the game in the 9th inning with a lead between one and three runs.

Seattle Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik announced yesterday that both Brandon Morrow and Aaron Heilman with have the opportunity to compete in spring training for 2009 starting gigs.

The room is there to accommodate both pitchers – if the organization wants to admit its mistakes and place both disappointing starters – Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista – in the bullpen. The oft-injured Erik Bedard is also not a good bet to spend a full season in the rotation after having his frayed labrum repaired in September. The only real locks in the rotation, at this point, are Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn.

Morrow certainly has more upside – and fantasy potential – than Heilman. The 24-year-old hurler, who has spent the majority of the past two seasons in the bullpen, was hard to hit in 2008 and allowed just 40 hits in 64.2 innings. Batters made contact against Morrow 72.7% of the time (compared to King Felix, for example, at 80.8%).

He also has very good stuff – with a fastball that sits around 95 mph, as well as splitter and a slider. Unfortunately, his repertoire is fastball-heavy at this point and he will have to sharpen up the command and control of his secondary pitches to succeed as a starter.
Morrow’s overall control – or lack thereof – could be his undoing as a starter. His walk rate was a startling 7.11 BB/9 in 2007 but it improved to 4.73 in 2008, which is still far too high.

Heilman certainly cannot compete with Morrow’s raw stuff, but the right-hander has a history of solid command and control. That deserted him in 2008, though, and he posted an out-of-character walk rate of 5.45 BB/9. He was also more hittable in 2008 than in previous seasons and allowed 75 hits in 76 innings. At 30 years of age, Heilman should be peaking as a pitcher, so his 2008 season is a little disturbing. He is also moving to league that produces more offence, which could further muddy his numbers in 2009.

By moving both Morrow and Heilman to the rotation, it would severely damage the Seattle bullpen, which lacks proven, veteran relievers. He may not like it, but remaining in the bullpen will probably benefit both Heilman (Can he hold up health-wise as a starter? Probably not.) and the Mariners. It should also help fantasy owners because the right-hander would not be a top-tiered pitching option and, as a late-inning reliever, he would likely help preserve some of Morrow’s wins.

The Milwaukee Brewers are again attempting to sure-up the closer position by bringing in an aging, established closer. Gone is Salomon Torres after he replaced the ineffective Eric Gagne. Last year, the Brewers blew 26 saves (ironically the same amount as Hoffman’s former team the Padres), so they brought in the all-time saves leader to try to shore-up the backend of the bullpen. Trevor Hoffman had one of his worst seasons since taking over the closer role in San Diego. He recorded his highest ERA since 1995, his lowest save total (other than 2003 when he only pitched in 9 games) since 1994, his lowest innings total of his career other than 2003, etc.

Trevor Hoffman’s statistics do not look that bad at first glance. Yes, his FIP of 3.99 was high, but he posted a 2.94 the year before. In fact over the last five years, Hoffman has averaged 55.6 IP with a FIP of 3.13. He also has been at about one strikeout per inning every year. While he does not pile up the Ks, he also does not beat himself with walks. Age is a big issue with Hoffman, but the bigger issue to me is how a flyball-pitcher will translate away from the friendly confines of Petco Park. The following is Hoffman’s FIP in Petco (pFIP), converted to a neutral park (nFIP), and in Miller Park (mFIP).

As you can see, leaving Miller Park definitely hurts Hoffman’s effectiveness. Throwing in his advancing age, it would not seem out of line to expect a FIP of 4.5 or higher. Bill James (of course), Marcels, and CHONE are a bit more optimistic about Hoffman’s future than I am with FIPs of 3.24, 4.00, and 4.18. My expectations are over a quarter of a run higher than Salomon Torres’s FIP from last year (4.22). If he essentially repeats what Torres did last year, then he is definitely worth a draft pick. He is not, however, worthy of being considered anywhere near an “elite” closer or a must-draft. I would also be wary because who knows how well his arm will hold up with his advancing age.

Matt Lindstrom can throw a baseball 100 miles per hour. And if that was not good enough, the Marlins traded Kevin Gregg in the off-season, clearing the closer’s job for Lindstrom. With Logan Kensing and Scott Proctor as his main competition, it appears Lindstrom should be the team’s closer on Opening Day. So, why isn’t there more excitement surround Lindstrom? He does not crack the top 200 in early ADP reports.

Last year, Lindstrom’s walk rate was less than good. He suffered through a minor back injury and spent some time in the minors. But when he was with the Marlins, he posted a 4.08 BB/9 which led to a 1.45 WHIP. His previous track record with walks is spotty. Lindstrom was very good with the Marlins in 2007, with a 2.82 BB/9, but his minor league record shows seasons in line with 2008.

Gregg notched 61 saves for the Marlins over the past two seasons with a walk rate similar to Lindstrom’s mark last season. But let’s not get bogged down with his walks. In addition to his velocity, Lindstrom is also a groundball pitcher. His GB/FB ratio last year was 1.54, which led to a microscopic 0.16 HR/9, the fourth-lowest total among relievers. Some might think that he’s in for a major regression but in 2007 his HR/9 checked in at 0.27 for the year.

The combination of a top-notch fastball, lots of ground balls and very few home runs allowed is an attractive one for a potential closer. One thing to be wary of is that Lindstrom has agreed to pitch for the U.S. in the WBC. Instead of spending Spring Training refining his slider and firmly establishing himself as the team’s closer, Lindstrom will be setting up Joe Nathan, Brian Fuentes, Jonathan Broxton and others.

While that is a concern, it should not override a guy with an excellent shot of posting 30+ saves with solid strikeout numbers. In his two years in the majors, Lindstrom has a 7.60 K/9 rate. That’s a nice combo for a guy going in the lower 20 percent of mock drafts currently.

The Toronto Blue Jays organization has been stockpiling left-handed pitchers in the last couple of seasons, which has created impressive depth. At this point in the off-season, the organization could utilize upwards of 10 southpaws in 2009, should the need arise. With left-handed pitching always in short supply around the Majors, the organization could also use that depth to acquire some much-needed offence.

The majority of the left-handed pitching for the Jays comes in the form of relievers. Those relievers include B.J. Ryan, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Jesse Carlson, Fabio Castro, Reid Santos, and Davis Romero. The starting pitchers include youngsters David Purcey, Ricky Romero and Bill Murphy.

From a Fantasy perspective, Ryan is the most likely pitcher to have an impact in 2009. The closer missed almost all of 2007 after having Tommy John surgery but returned for 2008 and saved 32 games in 36 attempts. Despite the save total, Ryan’s stuff did not return to its pre-surgery levels and he lost a couple miles per hour off both his fastball and slider. His command also wavered and his walk rate worsened by more than one walk per nine innings from his days as a dominating reliever. On the plus side, he still saved quite a few games despite not having his best stuff. Ryan is now even further removed from his surgery so there is some hope that he will regain some velocity on his pitches in 2009. If he does, he has the potential to reach the 40-save plateau.

Downs has been a valuable pitcher for the Jays after being saved from the scrap heap prior to the 2005 season. In the past two seasons, the reliever has appeared in 147 games for the Jays and has a FIP of about 3.30 during that time frame. In 2008, the left-hander allowed just 54 hits in 70.2 innings of work and posted rates of 3.44 BB/9 and 7.26 K/9. The former starting pitcher has saved his career with the move to the bullpen but the Jays are considering stretching him out in spring training with an outside chance of giving him a starter’s role in 2009. He’s added 3 mph to his fastball in the past three seasons but he’s also gone from relying on four pitches to two. It will be interesting to see how Downs responds in spring training; he’s someone to keep an eye on.

Both Tallet and Carlson could have significant roles on the Jays in 2009 but neither should have a Fantasy impact.

Among the starters, Purcey figures to have the best shot of beginning the season in Toronto. Last season, the former first-round pick finally improved his command and control enough to pitch at the Major League level. The 26-year-old allowed 67 hits in 65 innings of work and posted rates of 4.02 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9. At 6’5”, 240 pounds, he has a workhorse body and the raw stuff to succeed, as long as he can find the strike zone. With a number of holes in the starting rotation, Purcey will have a great shot at pitching 180-200 innings.

Romero is another former first-round selection that has struggled with consistency in the minors, in part due to a lack of command. He finished the 2008 season in Triple-A and showed enough improvement to give hope that he could contribute at the Major League level in 2009. In seven starts, he allowed 42 hits in 42.2 innings. He posted rates of 4.22 BB/9 and 8.02 K/9. When he’s on, Romero works in the low 90s with a good change-up. His breaking balls are inconsistent but the curveball has plus potential. The 24-year-old probably won’t begin the season in Toronto but he could be racking up big league innings by the end of the season.

David Golebiewski took a good look at Jonathan Broxton on Dec. 18, shortly after former closer Takashi Saito was non-tendered by the Dodgers. David concluded – and rightfully so – that Broxton was a no-brainer option to fill the closer’s shoes.

That said, there may be another option in Los Angeles – one who is equally qualified statistically speaking – if he can stay healthy. Hong-Chih Kuo was just as dominating as Broxton in 2008, but he missed more time due to injuries (an on-going theme in his career), including a sore elbow and possible (but unconfirmed) blood clots.

In 2008, Broxton allowed 54 hits in 69 innings, as well as rates of 3.52 BB/9 and 11.48 K/9. He allowed just two home runs, for a measly 0.26 HR/9 rate and stranded 67.7% of base runners. His GB% on batted balls was 44.5%, while his line-drive rate was 23.2.

When facing batters, Broxton pumped in first-pitch strikes 59.7% of the time. When hitters took a swing, they made contact with his pitches at a rate of 71.2%. The right-hander’s biggest nemesis was the left-handed batter. Against left-handers, Broxton allowed a .270 batting average, compared to .181 against right-handers.

Interestingly, in save situations, Broxton had a 4.25 ERA, and allowed batters to hit .234. In non-save situations, he had a 1.91 ERA and had a batting-average-allowed of .196. With runners in scoring position in all situations, Broxton allowed a line of .316/.402/.395.

In 2008, he featured a fastball that averaged out around 96 mph, as well as a slider, and a change-up that he used less than 3% of the time. Kuo, on the other hand, did not throw quite as hard at an average of 93 mph but he used it more than 80 percent of the time. He also showed a slider, curveball and occasional change-up.

Kuo allowed 60 hits in 80 innings pitched in 2008. He also posted rates of 2.36 BB/9 and 10.80 K/9. Kuo allowed just four home runs, good for a rate of 0.45 HR/9. He stranded runners at an impressive rate of 80.4%. He induced ground balls at a rate of 46.4% and gave up line drives at a rate of 19.9%.

While Kuo has better control than Broxton, the command is not always there and the Taiwanese lefty pumped in first-pitch strikes at a rate of 57.6%. Overall, batters managed to make contact against Kuo 74.4% of the time. He was equally successful against both left-handed and right-handed batters with averages-allowed of .202 and .205, respectively.

In save situations, Kuo had a 1.66 ERA and allowed a batting average of .177. In non-save situtions, batters hit .201 against him, while he posted an ERA of 1.70. With runners in scoring position, Kuo posted a line of .179/.247/.298.

Kuo’s season may have been even more impressive if he had stayed healthy. In the first half of the year, he allowed 38 hits in 53.1 innings of work and struck out 63 with 13 walks. In his injury-riddled second half, Kuo allowed 22 hits in 26.2 innings and struck out 33 with eight walks.

If Kuo can remain healthy in 2009 – and that is a big if – the Dodgers organization has a pair of dominating late-game relievers to choose from in save situations. Also on the plus side, the two pitchers can be used for lefty-righty match-ups if the situation warrants such a ploy. Without a doubt, though, opponents are going to have a rough time in 2009 when trailing the Dodgers by three runs or less in the eighth and ninth innings.

Brian Fuentes recently inked a contract with the Angels to replace Francisco Rodriguez as closer. And as weird as this may sound…the Angels may have upgraded.

I won’t argue the merits or drawbacks of Rodriguez (although I have in other places). However, Fuentes has quietly been very good over the last couple years.

Last season was particularly good. Fuentes struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, while walking 3.16. He also allowed only three homers in 62 innings – although this is mainly due to an inordinately-low homer rate, as only 4.5% of his fly balls became homers. However, in his career, only 8.7% of his fly balls have become homers, so even though he tends to allow a lot of fly balls, he doesn’t allow too many homers.

Last season seems like it’s somewhat of an outlier in Fuentes’s career – but not by that much. His career strikeout rate is 10.24 per nine innings, and his career walk rate is 3.82. It’s fair to assume that Fuentes won’t quite approach last season’s peripherals or ERA, but it’s very reasonable to assume that Fuentes will strike out more than one batter per inning and will post an ERA in the 3.50 – 3.80 range (if that seems high, keep in mind that Fuentes will be moving to the more difficult league, even if he’s also leaving Coors Field in the process).

The key to Fuentes’s value in fantasy leagues is his situation. Fuentes signed a big-dollar deal to be The Closer for Los Angeles, a team which has thrived on having relievers in set roles. Therefore, Fuentes’s job is very safe – even if he pitches poorly in back to back outings, he’s unlikely to be relieved of his closer duties permanently. Furthermore, Fuentes has relatively little injury history, so even though he’s risky by definition (most relievers are fairly risky), he’s not a huge injury risk.

Additionally, although this may seem somewhat counterintuitive as a positive for Fuentes, the Angels aren’t going to be very good next year. Their offense overachieved in 2008 and they have lost Mark Teixeira and Garrett Anderson, leaving their offense as potentially one of the worst in the American League. This actually bodes well for Fuentes, because it means that the Angels aren’t going to blow many teams out. Rather, when they do win games, chances are the games are going to be close, leading to a lot of save opportunities for Fuentes. This is what allowed K-Rod to rack up so many saves last year, despite being no better than average at converting save opportunities into saves.

All in all, Brian Fuentes is a low-risk, above-average reliever who is likely to have a lot of save opportunities. Furthermore, he’s unlikely to be removed from the closer’s role if he struggles a little bit, and he should post solid numbers, even if they regress from last year’s numbers. Fuentes is likely to be available after the “top tier” of closers have been taken, and is the exact type of pitcher you should be targeting.

Due to a combination of a tremendous strikeout mark, a solid ERA and a nice WHIP, Carlos Marmol had a fantasy value of roughly $6 in a 12-team mixed league last year. That figures to go up substantially in 2009 as he takes over the closer’s role for the Cubs with the departure of Kerry Wood.

Some owners will be wary of Marmol, due to the fact that he hasn’t been a closer for a full season previously. Others will point to his high walk rate, while some will be scared off by his FIP, which was nearly a run higher than his actual ERA. There are also questions about his stamina, as a rough patch in June was attributed to fatigue.

Smart fantasy owners will use all of these fears to acquire Marmol cheaper than he should go in an auction or later than he should go in a draft.

While Marmol has not closed previously, he converted seven of eight save chances last year (one of his two blown saves came in the seventh inning). The walk rate is definitely a concern, but as Francisco Rodriguez has shown the last few years, a high strikeout rate can offset a poor walk rate. Most of Marmol’s poor outings came between May 31 and July 2. But whatever was bothering him then was quickly rectified. After the break he had a 1.29 ERA with 16 BB and 44 K in 35 IP.

The Cubs also have former Marlins closer Kevin Gregg and former college football star Jeff Samardzija in the bullpen. They may siphon off some saves during the year, but in 2008 Wood had 34 of the team’s 44 saves. Since the Norm Charlton–Heathcliff Slocumb fiasco in 1997, manager Lou Piniella has displayed a strong preference for one closer in his next 10 seasons at the helm. Not once in those 10 years have two relievers on a Piniella-managed team reached double digits in saves.

Wood had a $19 season in 2008 and was a top-25 pitcher overall as the Cubs closer. I might be a tad more conservative than that for Marmol, but I would expect that to be a ballpark figure of his worth in 2009.

According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa is considering the option of using rehabbing starter Chris Carpenter as the club’s closer for 2009. With former closer Jason Isringhausen likely on his way out of town as a free agent, after a disappointing 2008 season, the club is left with just younger pitchers with true closer experiences (in the minors and college). The club recently lost out on former Colorado closer Brian Fuentes, who signed a two-year contract with the Los Angels Angels.

Everyone who knows LaRussa knows he’s not likely to give such a key role to a pitcher like Chris Perez or Jason Motte, with just 41.2 and 11.0 innings under their belts, respectively. Perez, 23, collected seven saves in 2008 with St. Louis and blew four save opportunities. Motte, 26, collected one save and did not blow an opportunity.

Perhaps LaRussa is looking for the next John Smoltz, another talented right-handed veteran pitcher, whose effectiveness and durability were derailed by injuries to his arm and shoulder. Smoltz was 34 when he became the closer for the Atlanta Braves. Carpenter will be 34 as of Opening Day 2009. Smoltz had been in the Majors for 13 seasons; Carpenter will have been in the Majors for 12.

Smoltz and Carpenter have similar repertoires at this points as starters. Based on small sample sizes from 2008 (just four games for Carpenter, and six games for Smoltz) both utilized fastballs and breaking balls as their two main weapons, although Carpenter favored the fastball (52.7%) about 10 percent more than Smoltz. Both pitchers averaged out around 91-92 mph. Smoltz used his slider (37.5%) about 10 percent more than Carpenter. They also have curveballs and change-ups that they mixed in, although the Cardinals righty used his curveball far more often in his last healthy season (2006: 22.2%). Carpenter also used a cutter 2.9% of the time, while Smoltz has a splitter that he used 8.6% of the time in 2008.

Obviously, comparing the above numbers does not solve the question of whether or not Carpenter will be an effective closer but it is kind of interesting to compare the two players on a somewhat superficial level. There are enough similarities with the two players to suggest that Carpenter could be an effective closer, if he can handle the rigors of pitching on back-to-back or back-to-back-to-back days. It also won’t be hard to top Isringhausen’s 2008 season after he saved just 12 games and posted an ERA of 5.70.

Whether he pitches out of the bullpen or the starting rotation, the Cardinals definitely need to figure out how to get the best value out of Carpenter, as he is signed through the 2011 season (with a club option for 2012) at $14 million or more a season. Carpenter would certainly be a sleeper choice for Fantasy owners if he heads into the 2009 season in the bullpen.