When was the last time you saw a single position in fantasy take such a beating before the season even gets underway?  First there was the sudden change to Brett Myers in Houston.  Then Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson headed for the DL, each in need of Tommy John surgery.  Then Drew Storen had elbow issues and Frank Francisco needed his knee drained.  It’s been a disaster, right?

Well, now it gets worse as Andrew Bailey heads to the shelf for three to four months with thumb surgery and Kyle Farnsworth lands on the DL with elbow soreness.  The waiver wire has been a hotbed of action for the last few weeks and it’s getting even hotter with these next two guys…

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The regular season may have officially started with the Mariners and Athletics last week, but the rest of the league kicks off the year a few days from now. Here’s an early-season waiver wire for you folks itching to do some fantasy roster tinkering…

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The White Sox’s bullpen may be their biggest strength entering this season. The team dealt away last season’s closer, Sergio Santos, because they knew there were adequate replacements already on the team. Since dealing Santos, however, the team has not named his successor. While most team’s are at a point where position battles are coming to a close, the White Sox are being very secretive about their closer situation. With multiple candidates vying for the job, the White Sox aren’t doing fantasy owners any favors.

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This is a question I have received a lot since we were made aware of Ryan Madson’s impending Tommy John surgery: who would I rather pick, Greg Holland or Sean Marshall? Some of my readers and twitter followers took my advice and picked up Holland when Joakim Soria went down, but saw that Marshall was available and wanted to know who I would rather have. Here is my take on both pitchers.

Greg Holland

Holland’s skillset and the likelihood of him being named closer has been well documented here on FanGraphs by both me and Jack Moore. Holland has received three save opportunities and came through with all of them this spring, which is at least somewhat telling of what Kansas City has in the plans for this season. He will most likely close, and he will also most likely be very effective with this opportunity. With a K/BB ratio of 3.89 last season and dominance against both lefties and righties, I have little doubt that Holland has what it takes to be a closer. His track record is slightly disconcerting however, as he only really has performed at this level in his lone Major League season. He was very effective in the minors, but not 1.80 ERA or 2.21 FIP good. He will probably walk more batters this season than he did last year, which is a slight cause for concern going forward. As I stated earlier, Holland definitely has the stuff to close and be very effective, but I don’t expect him to quite be Craig Kimbrel or John Axford right out of the gate.
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It’s been a pretty tough few months for Ryan Madson. First the 31-year-old right-hander reportedly had a four-year, $44 million offer pulled off the table by his former team before they went all in on Jonathan Papelbon. After weeks of sitting on the offseason sidelines, he took a one-year, $8.5 million pillow contract from the Reds with an eye on a big multi-year payday next offseason. That won’t happen now. A nagging elbow injury this spring turned out to be a torn elbow ligament, and now the former Phillie will miss the season with Tommy John surgery.

An injury of this caliber has some far-reaching fantasy implications beyond the obvious — Madson being non-rosterable — so let’s break it down…

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With it officially announced that Joakim Soria will receive Tommy John surgery, we are now focused on who ends up with more saves, Jonathan Broxton or Greg Holland. To me, Holland seems like the better bet to both get and hold onto the job for the length of the season.

For starters, Ned Yost has seen firsthand what Holland can do. He saw him net 24 shutdowns and meltdown just once, even though I doubt he uses those two statistics, he saw Holland’s dominance throughout last season. While Broxton does have the “closer experience,” he also pitched just 12.2 innings last year and recorded a 4.04 ERA the season before. His FIP of 3.01 that season was impressive, but I imagine Yost still values ERA more than any defensive independent pitching stat.

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Grant Balfour, the man with the awful baseball name and two consecutive sub 2.50 ERAs has been named the new closer in Oakland. Balfour has had stellar performances in three of the past four years and is finally being rewarded with a ninth inning gig. Oakland made the wise call here baseball wise, as Balfour is the better pitcher than Brian Fuentes and now Fuentes can become more of a situational pitcher, which will in turn make him a more valuable member of their bullpen.

Balfour did run into some good fortune last season, stranding 89% of his runners and recording a BABIP of .232, but he also had the highest HR/FB rate of his career, minimum 30 innings pitched, at 11.0%. Balfour is no guarantee for another sub 2.50 ERA, but I could certainly envision him around the 2.80-3.00 mark that he has averaged over the past four seasons.

As a strict two pitch pitcher who generates above average whiff rates with both pitches, Balfour certainly has the stuff to finish with more than a strikeout per inning pitched. Also helping in Balfour’s resurgence over the past few seasons is his walk rate, which has sat at 7.7% and 8.3% over the past two years compared to his career average of 10.9%. His lower walk rate has come with fewer strikeouts but an improved K/BB ratio, which have been his second and third highest of his career over the past two seasons.

Projection systems have his ERA in a wide range, with Bill James expecting a 2.40 and ZiPS expecting a 3.60 mark. I am a bit more bullish on Balfour than ZiPS is, but take that for what it is worth. Looking at shutdowns and meltdowns, last season Balfour finished with 32 and 6 respectively. That was good for a rate of 5.33 shutdowns per meltdown, which ranked him tenth among qualifying relievers. His consistent performances should allow him to hold down the closer spot for the entirety of the season, barring any odd setbacks or injuries.

So, with Balfour now officially being named closer, where does he rank among the herd? In the consensus reliever rankings, our team had Andrew Bailey, Brandon League, Joe Nathan, and Kyle Farnsworth ranked 16-19 when excluding projected starting pitchers. I would slot Balfour right in between League and Nathan, as League’s performance last year and lower FIP over the past two seasons gives him the slight edge over Balfour in my eyes.
Despite the middle tier ranking, Balfour is a solid closer to add to a roto roster.

If you were wise enough to speculate on Balfour eventually winning the job, then you likely got him at a very nice discount on draft day. If you are drafting in the near future, target Balfour as he is likely still a bit undervalued due to his inexperience as a closer. I do not place much value in a pitcher having closer experience, but in many cases your league mates will. Take advantage of the players in your league by looking at Balfour’s solid numbers over the past few seasons and expect quite a good year in his first attempt as a full time closer.

Over the last few days, Howard Bender, Chad Young, and Ben Duronio have been writing about three players they will each avoid this season (parts one, two, three, and four), and now I’m going to join in on the fun.

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Yesterday afternoon, Royals closer Joakim Soria left the game with a sore right elbow. But this doesn’t sound like any sore elbow as a result of just shaking off some spring training rust and he’ll be fine in a couple of days. This appears more ominous. His performance this spring certainly backs up the fact that he has been pitching injured, as he has now allowed 7 runs and 10 hits in just 3 1/3 innings. Of course, it’s a tiny sample size and typically should be ignored. But when elbow soreness is involved, we have to take that performance more seriously.

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Yesterday, I made some bold predictions for the league leaders in the five fantasy hitting categories. Today, I check in on the pitching side of the ledger with some equally crazy forecasts.

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