Archive for Closers

• Kenley Jansen converted the save tonight against the Phillies for his eighth save of the year. Since taking over the close role in early May, Jansen has been outstanding only giving up a single earned run in 11 innings while striking out 16 batters. Jansen has a firm grasp on the role, especially now that Javy Guerra is on the DL and should be considered one of the top closers given his ability to miss bats (13.99 k/9). If something were to happen to Jansen, Josh Lindblom, who pitched a perfect eighth inning tonight, would be next in line for saves. Lindblom isn’t the most exciting of relievers, but he should provide holds as the primary setup man for the Dodgers.

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There were some questions about the best way to see if bad teams earn saves as well as good teams — so here are hopefully some answers.

Should we have used save opportunities as our metric? Better teams should make more save opportunities for our closers, and using opportunities removes the quality of the closer from the equation, right? One problem, before we run the numbers, is that save opportunities exist in the seventh and eighth innings, but the closer is rarely brought into those innings any more. So there will be some save opps that won’t ever turn into saves for our bad team closer… but let’s see what happens:

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The Cubs are in trouble. Their lineup is pretty bad, their rotation only has a couple decent pieces, and their bullpen. Oh, their bullpen. By ERA, it’s only the eighth-worst pen in the league, but FIP (2nd worst) and xFIP (worst) tell a better story.

After Carlos Marmol blew up, they tried Rafael Dolis. His wildness relieved him of his duties around the same time the team decided Michael Bowden needed more time in the minors. Lefty James Russell and right Shawn Camp, both better cast as supporting, lower-leverage pieces in a better pen, are now sharing the role, with the also-underwhelming Casey Coleman looking in, ready for his chance.

Each update on the situation does goad reaction from the saves-hungry hoards, but there’s a more important question lurking behind. Should we care at all about messy situations like those in the Cubs pen right now?

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Where you don’t need a full day of games to justify talking about the bullpens…

•  Jon Rauch entered the 8th inning today to protect a one run lead and ended up with the loss after giving up two runs in just two-thirds of an inning. Tim Byrdak retired the final batter in the eighth and Bobby Parnell came on for a clean ninth inning, down by a run. Frank Francicso has actually been great lately, pitching 6 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts against just five base runners, converting all of his five save chances, so the Mets aren’t looking at any closer controversy. However, if something were to happen to Frank Squared, Bobby Parnell may get the first shot as Jon Rauch has continued to struggle with five losses, three blown saves and a pedestrian 4.27 xFIP and 5.16 k/9 and could now miss some time after being sent for exams due to elbow tenderness after today’s game.

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The latest updates on bullpens around the league since our last Bullpen Report:

• As Colin mentioned the other day, Aroldis Chapman is pretty good at his job right now and he continued to pitch well on Saturday striking out three batters (while walking one) en route to his fifth save of the year. Aroldis Chapman has yet to give up a run this season and it’s certainly not all smoke and mirrors as he has underlying numbers that are as eye popping as his perfect ERA: 16.07 k/9, 5.56 k/bb, and a 1.38 xFIP. Chapman also has 1.7 WAR so far this season, a number that would have made him one of the top-10 most valuable relief pitchers all of last year, and it’s only the beginning of June which should tell you the kind of season he is having right now. Colin said it first but it’s worth repeating, Aroldis Chapman is the best relief pitcher in baseball right now and so long as he’s getting saves for Cincinnati he’s likely the best closer as well. The one knock on Aroldis was that he may not be able to pitch many back-to-back games or  three games in a row, but before today’s game Reds manager Dusty Baker said that Aroldis would be available to pitch after having pitched in the previous two games. This news should only increase Chapman’s value but be sure to monitor his workload because as we all know –  pitchers are pretty fragile creatures.

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• Fellow Bullpen Report contributor Benjamin Pasinkoff shot out an e-mail the other day mentioning that the Mariners quietly called up Stephen Pryor this week. While not considered a blue-chip prospect in scouting circles, Pryor has never whiffed less than 10.7 K/9 at any stop during his minor league career. While his walk rate (4.6 BB/9 career, 5.2 in his brief stop at AAA this year) leaves much to be desired, Pryor’s 6’4″ frame and mid-90s heat are certainly worth noting in any bullpen with a shaky pecking order. While he is expected to work in middle relief for the foreseeable future, his is a name owners should keep in mind in case he eventually impresses his way to the late innings. Dynasty and deep keeper owners with roster flexibility might even consider a speculative add in the hope of striking “closer gold” down the line.

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Jason Grilli has been one of the top middle relievers in all of baseball so far this season, netting a 1.80/2.33/2.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP along with 0.5 wins out of the bullpen in exactly 20 innings. Currently, Grilli has the highest strikeout rate of his career, by far, at 42.7%.

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•J.J. Putz was unavailable for Wednesday night’s game against the San Francisco Giants due to a stiff neck. The Diamondbacks’ closer received treatment prior to and during the early innings of last evening’s contest, but informed manager Kirk Gibson he wasn’t available when his neck didn’t loosen after trying to play catch in the fourth frame. David Hernandez came on in relief of Ian Kennedy with two outs in the eighth for the four-out save opportunity. Hernandez yielded two hits, but held the Giants scoreless to earn his first save of 2012.

In 24 appearances this season, Hernandez has been inducing swinging strikes at a career high 13.5% clip, which indicates his 12.52 K/9 (4.00 K/BB) looks to be real. In addition to the whiffs, solid ratios (1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP) make the Dbacks set-up man more than just a handcuff in deeper leagues.

Although Putz indicated he should be fine for Friday’s contest, Hernandez could get the call should there be any setback with his stiff neck.
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• Dale Thayer entered in the bottom of the ninth this afternoon with the hopes of preserving a 6-6 tie to send the Padres and Cubs to extras. Thayer surrendered a lead-off single to Bryan LaHair before serving up a walk-off two-run long ball to Darwin Barney.

Huston Street took to the bullpen at Wrigley Field this afternoon for a high-intensity session, and if he feels well tomorrow, the Padres’ closer could head to Class A Lake Elsinore on Friday to begin his rehab assignment. Prior to hitting the disabled list earlier this month with a right shoulder strain, Street converted each of his four save opportunities while strutting a 6.50 K/BB and a 2.10 xFIP in just under ten innings. Street, the Padres’ highest paid player at $7.5 million, figures to regain the closer’s role once given a clean bill of health.
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The key to having a K/BB higher than a K/9 is having a BB/9 under 1. That usually means a walk percentage below 3%. To put a walk rate that low into perspective, the league average walk rate for relievers is 9.3%, so a rate under 3% is just tremendous. Here are three relievers who have walk rates so low that their K/BB rate is better than their K/9 rate. These guys can help a fantasy team due to the low amount of base runners they allow on along with relatively high strikeout rates. In a linear weights league like ottoneu, relievers like this become even more valuable.

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