It’s saves mini-series week here at RotoGraphs! We tried one look into whether or not bad teams provide save opportunities, and then we tried another. We looked at lefty closers. The results seem to indicate that bad teams are almost as good as good teams at providing save opportunities, and managers don’t seem to prefer lefty closers.

But ‘bad teams’ and ‘good teams’ are not all alike. Commenters rightly pointed out that there might certain types of teams that create more save opportunities. How about teams with small run differentials? They seemingly play in more close games which could end in saves. How about teams with good pitching staffs? They might keep the score down and create more save situations. Or even teams with good bullpens. They might be able to keep the score close and hand the ball to the closer more often.

These are all testable questions. So it’s time to run the correlations — this time with teams since 1990, in order to reflect current bullpen usage more accurately. There are still over 600 team-seasons in our sample. SVO stands for Save Opportunities.

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• Huston Street was activated from the disabled list yesterday and proceeded to get the save last night against the Giants. It wasn’t the prettiest of saves with Street letting three batters reach base, but he didn’t surrender a run and looks primed to continue the great year he was having before his injury. The Dale Thayer experiment is officially over for now but it could rear its head again if Street were to miss time again or be traded because fellow setup man Andrew Cashner is now expected to enter the rotation at some point this year, leaving an open spot for the Padres to breed another reliever. Padres GM Josh Byrnes didn’t give a timetable for when Cashner can be expected to start but look for him to enter the starting rotation in the near future.

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J.J. Putz

With a 6.00 ERA, J.J. Putz can likely be taken from an owner looking to solidify his ERA and WHIP in standard formats. Of course, he is owned for his saves, so swapping a lesser closer who is over performing — Matt Capps and maybe Brett Myers, for instance — could be necessary in some leagues.

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Watching for Sasquatch is less rewarding then betting on a lefty closer, but that isn’t to say that managers don’t prefer righty closers. Ceding the platoon advantage to three-quarters of the league in the ninth inning seems like a bad idea unless you really have something in your lefty.

So how often does the lefty closer happen in baseball? Answer: not as often as it should.

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• Kenley Jansen converted the save tonight against the Phillies for his eighth save of the year. Since taking over the close role in early May, Jansen has been outstanding only giving up a single earned run in 11 innings while striking out 16 batters. Jansen has a firm grasp on the role, especially now that Javy Guerra is on the DL and should be considered one of the top closers given his ability to miss bats (13.99 k/9). If something were to happen to Jansen, Josh Lindblom, who pitched a perfect eighth inning tonight, would be next in line for saves. Lindblom isn’t the most exciting of relievers, but he should provide holds as the primary setup man for the Dodgers.

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There were some questions about the best way to see if bad teams earn saves as well as good teams — so here are hopefully some answers.

Should we have used save opportunities as our metric? Better teams should make more save opportunities for our closers, and using opportunities removes the quality of the closer from the equation, right? One problem, before we run the numbers, is that save opportunities exist in the seventh and eighth innings, but the closer is rarely brought into those innings any more. So there will be some save opps that won’t ever turn into saves for our bad team closer… but let’s see what happens:

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The Cubs are in trouble. Their lineup is pretty bad, their rotation only has a couple decent pieces, and their bullpen. Oh, their bullpen. By ERA, it’s only the eighth-worst pen in the league, but FIP (2nd worst) and xFIP (worst) tell a better story.

After Carlos Marmol blew up, they tried Rafael Dolis. His wildness relieved him of his duties around the same time the team decided Michael Bowden needed more time in the minors. Lefty James Russell and right Shawn Camp, both better cast as supporting, lower-leverage pieces in a better pen, are now sharing the role, with the also-underwhelming Casey Coleman looking in, ready for his chance.

Each update on the situation does goad reaction from the saves-hungry hoards, but there’s a more important question lurking behind. Should we care at all about messy situations like those in the Cubs pen right now?

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Where you don’t need a full day of games to justify talking about the bullpens…

•  Jon Rauch entered the 8th inning today to protect a one run lead and ended up with the loss after giving up two runs in just two-thirds of an inning. Tim Byrdak retired the final batter in the eighth and Bobby Parnell came on for a clean ninth inning, down by a run. Frank Francicso has actually been great lately, pitching 6 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts against just five base runners, converting all of his five save chances, so the Mets aren’t looking at any closer controversy. However, if something were to happen to Frank Squared, Bobby Parnell may get the first shot as Jon Rauch has continued to struggle with five losses, three blown saves and a pedestrian 4.27 xFIP and 5.16 k/9 and could now miss some time after being sent for exams due to elbow tenderness after today’s game.

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The latest updates on bullpens around the league since our last Bullpen Report:

• As Colin mentioned the other day, Aroldis Chapman is pretty good at his job right now and he continued to pitch well on Saturday striking out three batters (while walking one) en route to his fifth save of the year. Aroldis Chapman has yet to give up a run this season and it’s certainly not all smoke and mirrors as he has underlying numbers that are as eye popping as his perfect ERA: 16.07 k/9, 5.56 k/bb, and a 1.38 xFIP. Chapman also has 1.7 WAR so far this season, a number that would have made him one of the top-10 most valuable relief pitchers all of last year, and it’s only the beginning of June which should tell you the kind of season he is having right now. Colin said it first but it’s worth repeating, Aroldis Chapman is the best relief pitcher in baseball right now and so long as he’s getting saves for Cincinnati he’s likely the best closer as well. The one knock on Aroldis was that he may not be able to pitch many back-to-back games or  three games in a row, but before today’s game Reds manager Dusty Baker said that Aroldis would be available to pitch after having pitched in the previous two games. This news should only increase Chapman’s value but be sure to monitor his workload because as we all know –  pitchers are pretty fragile creatures.

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• Fellow Bullpen Report contributor Benjamin Pasinkoff shot out an e-mail the other day mentioning that the Mariners quietly called up Stephen Pryor this week. While not considered a blue-chip prospect in scouting circles, Pryor has never whiffed less than 10.7 K/9 at any stop during his minor league career. While his walk rate (4.6 BB/9 career, 5.2 in his brief stop at AAA this year) leaves much to be desired, Pryor’s 6’4″ frame and mid-90s heat are certainly worth noting in any bullpen with a shaky pecking order. While he is expected to work in middle relief for the foreseeable future, his is a name owners should keep in mind in case he eventually impresses his way to the late innings. Dynasty and deep keeper owners with roster flexibility might even consider a speculative add in the hope of striking “closer gold” down the line.

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