In late February, the Astros shocked the baseball world by announcing they’d be converting longtime starter Brett Myers into the bullpen to serve as closer. Considering that the Houston rotation looked incredibly thin beyond Wandy Rodriguez & Bud Norris, many questioned the logic beyond trading ~200 innings of Myers as a starter for ~60 innings of him as a reliever. A third of the way through the season, the move has worked out reasonably well for the surprisingly competitive Astros, as Lucas Harrell & J.A. Happ have capability bolstered the rotation and Myers entered play on Tuesday tied for fourth in the NL with 14 saves, making him one of the few to survive the unending turnover and volatility in the ninth inning so far this year. Though I hardly need to remind you that saves don’t exactly equate to quality and that Myers’ sparkling 2.25 ERA isn’t backed up by his 4.08 FIP, saves are still a mainstay category in nearly every fantasy league, and that alone makes Myers valuable.

Yet it’s also that value which comes from saves that’s exactly why he’s one of the best sell-high players of the first half of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

• He’s mortal! Aroldis Chapman finally gave up a run tonight, and it only took him until the Reds’ 56th game to do so. The run came after consecutive doubles in the 10th inning of a tie game, but one run was enough for the Pirates who held on for the victory. Obviously, I think we all expect mass drops in many leagues tonight which should send Chapman’s ownership value plummeting. OK, maybe not. However, one thing for Chapman owners to keep in mind — he is on pace for 87 innings, which is well above league-average for a reliever generally appearing in single-inning, high-leverage situations. It wouldn’t be out of the question for the Reds to dial back his workload a bit, especially since they’ve historically treated him pretty softly when it comes to pitching multiple days in a row.

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It’s saves mini-series week here at RotoGraphs! We tried one look into whether or not bad teams provide save opportunities, and then we tried another. We looked at lefty closers. The results seem to indicate that bad teams are almost as good as good teams at providing save opportunities, and managers don’t seem to prefer lefty closers.

But ‘bad teams’ and ‘good teams’ are not all alike. Commenters rightly pointed out that there might certain types of teams that create more save opportunities. How about teams with small run differentials? They seemingly play in more close games which could end in saves. How about teams with good pitching staffs? They might keep the score down and create more save situations. Or even teams with good bullpens. They might be able to keep the score close and hand the ball to the closer more often.

These are all testable questions. So it’s time to run the correlations — this time with teams since 1990, in order to reflect current bullpen usage more accurately. There are still over 600 team-seasons in our sample. SVO stands for Save Opportunities.

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• Huston Street was activated from the disabled list yesterday and proceeded to get the save last night against the Giants. It wasn’t the prettiest of saves with Street letting three batters reach base, but he didn’t surrender a run and looks primed to continue the great year he was having before his injury. The Dale Thayer experiment is officially over for now but it could rear its head again if Street were to miss time again or be traded because fellow setup man Andrew Cashner is now expected to enter the rotation at some point this year, leaving an open spot for the Padres to breed another reliever. Padres GM Josh Byrnes didn’t give a timetable for when Cashner can be expected to start but look for him to enter the starting rotation in the near future.

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J.J. Putz

With a 6.00 ERA, J.J. Putz can likely be taken from an owner looking to solidify his ERA and WHIP in standard formats. Of course, he is owned for his saves, so swapping a lesser closer who is over performing — Matt Capps and maybe Brett Myers, for instance — could be necessary in some leagues.

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Watching for Sasquatch is less rewarding then betting on a lefty closer, but that isn’t to say that managers don’t prefer righty closers. Ceding the platoon advantage to three-quarters of the league in the ninth inning seems like a bad idea unless you really have something in your lefty.

So how often does the lefty closer happen in baseball? Answer: not as often as it should.

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• Kenley Jansen converted the save tonight against the Phillies for his eighth save of the year. Since taking over the close role in early May, Jansen has been outstanding only giving up a single earned run in 11 innings while striking out 16 batters. Jansen has a firm grasp on the role, especially now that Javy Guerra is on the DL and should be considered one of the top closers given his ability to miss bats (13.99 k/9). If something were to happen to Jansen, Josh Lindblom, who pitched a perfect eighth inning tonight, would be next in line for saves. Lindblom isn’t the most exciting of relievers, but he should provide holds as the primary setup man for the Dodgers.

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There were some questions about the best way to see if bad teams earn saves as well as good teams — so here are hopefully some answers.

Should we have used save opportunities as our metric? Better teams should make more save opportunities for our closers, and using opportunities removes the quality of the closer from the equation, right? One problem, before we run the numbers, is that save opportunities exist in the seventh and eighth innings, but the closer is rarely brought into those innings any more. So there will be some save opps that won’t ever turn into saves for our bad team closer… but let’s see what happens:

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The Cubs are in trouble. Their lineup is pretty bad, their rotation only has a couple decent pieces, and their bullpen. Oh, their bullpen. By ERA, it’s only the eighth-worst pen in the league, but FIP (2nd worst) and xFIP (worst) tell a better story.

After Carlos Marmol blew up, they tried Rafael Dolis. His wildness relieved him of his duties around the same time the team decided Michael Bowden needed more time in the minors. Lefty James Russell and right Shawn Camp, both better cast as supporting, lower-leverage pieces in a better pen, are now sharing the role, with the also-underwhelming Casey Coleman looking in, ready for his chance.

Each update on the situation does goad reaction from the saves-hungry hoards, but there’s a more important question lurking behind. Should we care at all about messy situations like those in the Cubs pen right now?

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Where you don’t need a full day of games to justify talking about the bullpens…

•  Jon Rauch entered the 8th inning today to protect a one run lead and ended up with the loss after giving up two runs in just two-thirds of an inning. Tim Byrdak retired the final batter in the eighth and Bobby Parnell came on for a clean ninth inning, down by a run. Frank Francicso has actually been great lately, pitching 6 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts against just five base runners, converting all of his five save chances, so the Mets aren’t looking at any closer controversy. However, if something were to happen to Frank Squared, Bobby Parnell may get the first shot as Jon Rauch has continued to struggle with five losses, three blown saves and a pedestrian 4.27 xFIP and 5.16 k/9 and could now miss some time after being sent for exams due to elbow tenderness after today’s game.

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