To say that the closing situation in baseball has been a disaster this season would be a grave understatement.  Of the 30 teams this year, 18 teams have had to make changes and/or adjustments due to injury or an outright lack of success.  Some of the changes have been temporary while others have seen multiple relievers moved in and out of the role causing fantasy owners to spend far too much time playing the waiver wire in search of consistent saves.  But what happens once the dust settles and there’s almost no more turnover?  What happens when you can’t find saves on the waiver wire and you’re in need?  The trade market can be a very unforgiving place to shop. Read the rest of this entry »

Yahoo! currently has Craig Kimbrel as the 21st ranked pitcher in fantasy, and 47th best player overall. So, is it worth it to go after the fireballing reliever who has the lowest ERA in history in the amount of innings he has thrown? My short answer is probably not, but if you desperately need saves and strikeouts while you have depth in other spots, then I can see an argument for trading for him.

Everyone knows what Kimbrel does, but it is difficult to trade the house for someone who is on pace to throw just 33 more innings for the rest of the season. Judging by Yahoo!’s value, Madison Bumgarner or Zack Greinke would be equal trading partners, two players I would not give up for any closer. Keep in mind that Yahoo! ranks Jim Johnson and Aroldis Chapman ahead of Kimbrel, due mostly to the fact that they have thrown more innings and the rate stats are comparable — though Johnson’s strikeouts are nowhere near comparable to the other two. Kenley Jansen is not too far behind them.

In trading for Kimbrel offering a package of two quality players would be the recommended strategy rather than trading a sure-fire stud. For a sole player, someone like Jordan Zimmermann seems like fair value in a straight-away deal, due to his great rate stats but pedestrian strikeout numbers.

The real good situation to be in is to be an owner of Kimbrel. There are teams in every league looking for saves, and if you own Kimbrel, who has been the best closer in the game over the past two years, you are likely in a great position to leverage his skills to acquire the combination of a lesser closer and another very good player. As a current owner of Kimbrel in a keeper league, while I also own Casey Janssen and Rafael Betancourt, this is a strategy I am strongly considering.

It is not selling high, as Kimbrel is simply an astounding pitcher, but it is maximizing value and helping your team in areas where it is currently struggling. While Kimbrel is great, the difference between Kimbrel and Rafael Soriano in fantasy leagues is a few saves, 21 strikeouts, and a bit of WHIP. With the difference being relatively minor and the real value being in the save total — which will likely not be too different over the remainder of the season — a trade of Kimbrel for Soriano and either a starting pitcher or solid bat could provide a team with solid value. Kimbrel is a great pitcher, but closers are often a bit overvalued in fantasy for a number of reasons. Don’t be afraid to trade your better players just because they are playing well or are the best at their position, as the label of “best at their position” may increase their trade value in itself.

• When the Yankees took the field in the top of the ninth inning up six runs, I don’t think Rafael Soriano was expecting to be finishing the game tonight, but finished he did. After Cory Wade gave up four runs, Soriano came on to get the final out, recording his 16th save of the season. Soriano has done a great job closing for the Yankees this year but his ERA (1.63) is lower than you would expect (3.84 xFIP) because he has been very fortunate with fly balls leaving the park. Soriano has yet to give up a home run in 2012, a trend which certainly won’t continue in Yankee Stadium for a pitcher who isn’t particularly great at killing worms (38.1% GB%). Still, Girardi has confidence in Soriano who maintains a firm grasp on the job and should hold onto it even if and when regression hits him. David Robertson has pitched well in his first four games back from the DL, giving up one run in 3.2 innings pitched while striking out six batters and although he may be the better pitcher, Soriano is the one who will continue to get saves for the rest of the year.

• After blowing three saves in his last six outings, Aroldis Chapman looked right on track tonight, striking out three batters while walking one in the ninth inning for his ninth save of the season. Chapman’s peripherals remain jaw dropping with a 15.85 K/9 and a 1.88 xFIP and while baseball fans may drool at the thought of Chapman’s skills in the starting rotation, it looks like he will remain closing games for Cincinnati. Sean Marshall owners speculating on a closing controversy stemming from a few bad outings by Chapman can stop speculating as he’s not likely to gain the job. However, for ratios and strikeouts, you will struggle to find a better reliever than Marshall this year– Marshall has a 2.14 xFIP and a strikeout rate over 11 (11.17 K/9), numbers that may pale in comparison to his teammate Chapman but still rank in the upper echelon of the league.

• Addison Reed gave up two runs in the ninth inning against the Twins tonight but was still able to hold on for his 10th save of the year. Reed has been a little disappointing since taking over closing duties in Chicago with a pedestrian 4.09 xFIP but he still has a 10.00 K/9, and his competition (Matt Thornton and Hector Santiago) isn’t exactly breathing down his neck, so Reed’s grasp on the job remains fairly firm.

• Jose Valverde has declared himself OK after his wrist sprain and entered tonight’s game in the bottom of the eighth inning down two runs pitching a perfect inning against the Rangers. While Valverde looks to be healed, it will be interesting to see if Jim Leyland goes to Valverde in another low leverage situation before putting him back in for the ninth inning. For now, I would be sure to hold onto Joaquin Benoit until Valverde is converting saves consistently again.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Jason Grilli (PIT) vs. PHI

The Pirates have their ace on the hill tomorrow in Jason McDonald and while the Phillies may be starting the 34 year old journeyman Raul Valdes, a pitching machine would fair pretty well against the Pirates lineup which is a long way to say that this game should be another close matchup with Jason Grilli getting a chance to pitch tomorrow night. Grilli has been sensational this year with a 2.69 xFIP and a fantastic 14.13 K/9 that is supported by his top notch SwStr% (15.2%) which ranks sixth in the majors among all qualified relievers.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• As Colin mentioned in the Bullpen Report last night, the “late scuttlebutt” is true and Matt Capps has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.  It is unknown how long Matt Capps will be out, but what we do know is that shoulder injuries can get pretty tricky, so we can’t assume Capps will be back in action as soon as he’s eligible to return from the DL. We also know that Matt Capps hasn’t been that impressive this year (4.21 xFIP) and has actually been far worse than the new co-closers in Minnesota, Glen Perkins (2.98 xFIP) and Jared Burton (3.26 xFIP). Glen Perkins is the better pitcher and has more closing experience both this year and at the end of last year, but it’s been Jared Burton who has received and converted the last two save opportunities, including tonight’s game against the White Sox. Perkins may be the better pitcher but the lefty closer is a rare breed as managers often side with the right-handed part of a closing platoon like we have seen Mike Scioscia do with Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs.

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Got two young players finally stepping into more prominent roles this week…

Brandon Belt | 1B, OF | Giants | Owned: 32% Yahoo! and 49.2% ESPN

It took yet another Aubrey Huff (knee) injury, but it appears as though Belt has been freed for good. The 24-year-old has started 15 straight games at first base — even against left-handed starters — and he owns a .362/.483/.702 line with more walks (ten) than strikeouts (nine) during that time. Over the last two weeks, his 236 wRC+ leads all of baseball.

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• Uh oh. Frank Francisco is been battling a left oblique injury that he suffered Friday night. The Mets originally didn’t seem too concerned, essentially deeming him day-to-day, but as we’ve historically seen with pitchers, opposite side oblique injuries are “nothing to sneeze at.” Well, word has come down mid-sentence (no, literally) that Francisco is indeed hitting the disabled list. And in an obvious move of goodwill to the fantasy community, manager Terry Collins has made life easy on owners by decreeing that Bobby Parnell had the ninth inning tonight (when he knew no Francisco this evening but prior to the DL announcement). Parnell certainly brings the heat (mid-upper 90’s on the fastball) and has career 8.4 K/9 that he’s improved a touch on this year (9.0). Maybe most impressively, he’s a flamethrower who keeps the walks down (3.8 BB/9 career, down to 2.4 this year) — put the whole package together and he has a career 3.78 xFIP (3.12 since the start of 2010). Pick him up in all leagues; I already have. He may only be a short-term hold, but with oblique injuries having a tendency to linger (see Doug Fister), he might be a bit more than a short-term investment.

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• Closer controversy brewing in Minnesota? Well, maybe not a true controversy, but Matt Capps is clearly not as healthy as the Twins would like you believe. We know because it was Glen Perkins, not Capps, who was called in to dust of a 5-4 win in Cincinnati tonight — giving up a couple hits, but also whiffing two. It’s now been over a week since Capps last appeared, and while the fact that he hasn’t been placed on the disabled list shows that Minnesota doesn’t think his shoulder issue is a huge one, it has clearly nagged him longer than originally expected. Perkins has the peripherals of a closer (11.7 K/9, 2.98 xFIP) and seems likely to eventually force Minnesota’s hand in the ninth, whether it be through a Capps trade or a potential Wally Pipp-type situation. One thing is clear: buy Perkins, sell Capps. Even if the latter regains his job in the next week or so, it’s becoming increasingly hard to imagine him lasting the season at the back end of the bullpen. Also, while the Twins threw up a smokescreen about Jared Burton getting save chances, it’s been pretty obvious that Perkins is the guy who is the heir apparent in the Twin Cities. Burton might be worth a glance in super-deep leagues, but probably shouldn’t be on the radar in anything else.

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• Joe Nathan pitched  a scoreless ninth inning last night for his 14th save of the year and currently has a 1.63 ERA with the peripherals to back it up. Nathan is showing the elite strikeout ability he had in his prime on the Twins, striking out 31.7% of the batters he has faced this year. However, what is really outstanding about Nathan this year is his walk rate which is currently a career low and league leading  0.65 BB/9. If you add it all up Nathan is pitching to a 2.13 xFIP on one of the better teams in the league — a great recipe for success and many saves. Nathan didn’t have the best year in 2011 after recovering from Tommy John surgery and many people suspected that Neftali Feliz or Mike Adams would take over the closing gig in Texas in 2012, but Nathan has had a fantastic season thus far and should be regarded as one of the top closers in the game again.

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• It wasn’t a clean save tonight for Chris Perez as he gave up two hits and a run against the Reds, but he still notched his league leading 22nd save of the year. Chris Perez has an ERA (2.73) that is lower than his peripherals would indicate (3.81 xFIP) but even if he regresses, Perez has a firm grasp on the role in Cleveland which isn’t something I thought I would be saying in the Bullpen Report in March. The man expected to replace Perez, Vinnie Pestano, is  having a great year himself with a strikeout rate of 11.67 K/9 and a solid 3.31 xFIP but unless Perez is traded or injured, Pestano won’t be seeing regular save opportunities any time soon.

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Drew Storen is throwing off a mound and is targeting the all-star break for his eventual return to the Nationals bullpen. Tyler Clippard has a stranglehold on the ninth inning job for the time being, but given Davey Johnson’s hesitance to use Clippard outside his familiar setup role early in the season and Storen’s career rates (8.7 K/9, 3.45 xFIP), it seems like there will be at least one more closer change in the DC metro area before the season is over. If Storen is lurking on your waiver wire, it might be time to add him to the watch list (shallower leagues) or scoop him up (deeper leagues). Clippard is worth holding for the time being, but maybe some covert shopping to find an owner who will pay for Clippard as the rest-of-season closer is in order.

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