Archive for Closers

L’Shana Tova and wishing everyone a sweet new year, at least as far as your fantasy team’s relievers are concerned…

•  After going all of last season without blowing a save, Jose Valverde blew his fifth save of the year last night, raising his ERA to 3.77. That ERA isn’t so terrible but behind it is a horrid 5.10 xFIP. Valverde has never been a control pitcher but his ability to miss bats at least made him respectable, if you are able to dismiss his celebrations of course. However, after posting strikeout rates of 8.59 K/9 or above for his entire career, Valverde’s strike out rate has dropped to 6.39 K/9 this season. Jim Leyland is a loyal guy and nothing has been said about a potential closing change, but in the midst of a playoff race you have to wonder if Leyland will want to go down with a sinking ship. We will be sure to monitor this situation, and teams in need of saves might want to take a look at Joaquin Benoit.
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Looking for some cheap steals and saves down the stretch? Here are two players for that late-season/playoff push…

Eduardo Nunez | 2B, SS, 3B | Yankees | Owned: 1% Yahoo!

I touted the 25-year-old Nunez as a steals sleeper way back in February, but he quickly played his way off New York’s big league roster not with his bat, but with his defense. He struggled with the routine play and was demoted to Triple-A in mid-May despite a solid (for a utility infielder) .294/.356/.373 batting line, then resurfaced when rosters expanded in September.

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• The struggling Addison Reed was finally yanked from a save opportunity on Saturday after giving up a pair of walks and a single. Robin Ventura apparently had enough and called on Matt Thornton to get out of the bases loaded jam — Thornton complied by inducing a double play and then another ground out to preserve the win for the White Sox. Reed has now given up earned runs in seven of his last nine outings, although his biggest problem his the 0.538 BABIP over that span (7 innings since August 24th). His 30-day xFIP is a slightly more bearable 4.13 (which only barely trails his top right-handed setup man in Brett Myers (4.11)), although Thornton’s xFIP over the same period is 3.35. It’s unlikely we’ve seen a changing of the guard, but this serves notice that the White Sox are not messing around — they don’t have margin for error and the leash on any of their relievers is getting shorter as the end of September draws closer. Reed owners scraping for saves should acknowledge that (and maybe snag Thornton if they have an extra bullpen slot).

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• Two nights after Grant Balfour was passed over for a save situation, he was right back at it in locking down a one run game versus the also-contending Baltimore Orioles. Balfour’s season-long 4.01 xFIP isn’t fantastic, but a lot of damage was done in June/July. Since August 1st, he has a 2.63 xFIP with a K% (33.3%) which puts him within sniffing distance of baseball’s elite relievers. His fastball velocity has been climbing all season and he’s currently throwing the hardest he has since the 2008/2009 seasons. Barring multiple meltdowns, Oakland will ride him to find their playoff fate so make sure he’s active as you try to tick off the last few saves in your roto leagues.

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• After his second poor appearance in a row Dusty Baker was concerned with Aroldis Chapman’s velocity down and now the Reds are going to give Chapman a few days off to “rest his tired pitching shoulder.”  Chapman, whose average fastball velocity is 98 mph this year, only hit 96 mph on the radar gun last night. As ridiculous as that might sound for any other pitcher, it is definitely a cause for concern for the Reds. With Chapman resting, Jonathan Broxton received the save tonight and he should be a must add as he is the preferred replacement for Chapman.

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• With Jonathan Papelbon unavailable tonight, the Phillies used Antonio Bastardo for the save tonight against the Marlins. Bastardo isn’t likely to receive many (if any) save opportunities for the rest of the season (or next), but it’s worth noting he’s pitched better than his 4.57 ERA would indicate. Bastardo has elite strikeout ability and with a 3.29 xFIP Bastardo is still one of the highly touted set-up men as we expected early in the season and he could even help out some of your ratios.
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• Haven’t said this in a couple months, but, “Heath Bell blew another one.” Ozzie Guillen turned to the big man on Saturday to try and finish off the Nationals; he responded by giving up a solo shot to Jayson Werth. In Bell’s defense, he did strike out the side around the homer. Nothing came across the wire that implied Steve Cishek (12/13 save conversion rate) was unavailable, so this has all the makings of Guillen trying to give his $27 million man another shot at the ninth inning. Bell has actually pitched pretty well since the beginning of June (3.35 xFIP, 3.9 K/BB) but Saturday’s outing still probably left a sour taste in the Marlins’ mouth. Don’t count on him for anything other than the stray save chance from here on out.

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• He’s human! Aroldis Chapman allowed a three-run shot to Matt Dominguez on Friday night, turning a potential win for the (likely) playoff-bound Reds into a loss to the lowly Astros. The outing absolutely killed Chapman’s peripherals, sending his xFIP soaring to… 1.63. Chapman’s otherworldly fastball velocity has ebbed and flowed a bit this year and is currently on a mini-downward slide, which may be in small part due to the fact that he’s already thrown more innings than he did all of last year (1 1/3 IP up on all levels with a month to go). That said, his xFIP is only up slightly to 2.37 since the start of August — up slightly because he put up a ridiculous -0.18 (yes, negative) in July. No reason to stop riding the Chapman train now.

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Hope you all had a wonderful Labor Day weekend but it’s now time to get back to work, or at least talk about those bullpens…

• Last we spoke the Dodgers were not sure about Kenley Jansen and his irregular heartbeat. Now, after seeing another heart specialist today, the Dodgers hope Jansen will “be able to pitch again by Sept. 17.” This is obviously good news considering Jansen might have needed to miss the rest of the season but there is no guarantee he’s able to pitch at towards the end of September, especially with surgery awaiting him soon.

As far as his replacement  is concerned, both Brandon League and Ronald Belisario are sharing the duties at the moment. Brandon League has previous closing experience and although he’s struggled a bit this season, he’s also showed improvement of late having pitching in eight consecutive appearances without giving up a run, striking out 13 in nine innings pitched. Belisario is having a solid season himself pitching to a 3.06 xFIP, so the situation is certainly unsettled without an official announcement being made. However, if I have to choose between the two, I’d grab League over Belisario.

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• After eight consecutive scoreless innings, Francisco Rodriguez imploded today blowing the save against the Cubs. K-Rod received the save opportunity because John Axford was unavailable and he didn’t take advantage of the opportunity, only recording one out in the ninth before letting five consecutive batters reach base en route to three runs, his seventh loss and his seventh blown save of the season. It’s hard to say with any conviction who is in line to set up for the Brewers but with everyone around him imploding, John Axford is definitely the guy to own in Milwaukee.
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