Hoping you all had a wonderful Opening Day. I’m not sure if we will see the closer type of carousel that we saw last year, but on the first day there was already some drama so here it goes: Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I got outrageously bold with predictions for the league leaders in the five fantasy hitting categories. Today, I check in on the pitching side of the ledger with some equally crazy forecasts.

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In 2012, Aroldis Chapman threw 71.2 thrilling innings out of the bullpen for Cincinnati with 38 saves, an absurd 122 strike outs and a 1.51 ERA with an equally (and likely more) impressive 1.55 FIP. In 2013, or at least at this point in the middle of spring training, Aroldis is still slated to be in the Rotation for the Reds which certainly changes the bullpen landscape. Whether Aroldis stays in the rotation or ends up back in pen will largely depend on his early results, health, the effectiveness of the rest of the bullpen and Dusty Baker. I don’t think I’m the only baseball fan who drools at the thought of 200 innings from the Cuban Missile, so let’s hope he stays in the rotation while we talk about the Reds bullpen. 

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Last week was all about the consensus ranks. This week, you’ll see some tiered ranks as we also try to finish up the depth chart discussion. But before we move on too quickly, I thought it would be interesting and informative for me to pick out the players that I liked and disliked more than the other analysts involved in the consensus ranks. Hopefully I’ll have a short, concise reason for my rankings in each case. Hopefully.

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Relievers! Are they the kickers of fantasy baseball? It might be even worse: kickers at least give you straight points. There is no ‘field goal’ category. There is a ‘saves’ category, however, and only relievers can get you anywhere in that category. So hold your nose and jump in.

I’m a big fan of picking at the end of tiers — and your bullpen reporters will get you tiered rankings soon, and then give you daily updates about bullpens around the league — so there are some names that jump out at me. Joe Nathan looks like the last guy we all agree belongs in the top tier. Then somewhere around Rafael Soriano and Tom Wilhelmsen there seems to be a second tier. Then I’d usually take a break and take two fliers. Let’s say two of Ryan Madson, Steve Cishek and Bobby Parnell. Then again, my “closers” in AL-LABR were Jose Veras, Joaquin Benoit, and Andrew Bailey.

I don’t like to pay much for saves, in other words.

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Obviously, if you talk to any legitimate stat junkie, they’d be able to tell you in a heartbeat, but ask any casual baseball fan which team bullpen was the most valuable to their team last year, and very few….probably none….would be able to tell you it was the Royals. With an overall WAR of 7.3 and such solid numbers like a 77.8-percent strand rate, an 8.5-percent HR/FB, a 3.17 ERA and a 8.58 K/9, the Royals pen was one of the team’s strongest assets. And this year probably won’t be much different as most of the components that made it so successful last year are back for more here in 2013. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cubs are in the middle of a major rebuild, and that includes the bullpen. The club doesn’t have an obvious long-term closer or any other relievers that make you think they’ll be part of the next great Cubs team without a big step forward. That doesn’t make it a bad bullpen unit though, nor does it mean they lack fantasy-relevant arms. In fact, Chicago has several interesting relievers (and potential starters who may wind up relievers) worth having on your roster. The new front office regime stockpiled some nice arms this past offseason.

Closer
Carlos Marmol

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Whether it’s a worthwhile strategy or not (and I stand by the fact that it isn’t), numerous fantasy owners tend to ignore closers on draft day. Their decision is either to punt saves outright or to just not invest any auction dollars or draft picks on closers and fish off the waiver wire all year for saves. And why is that? Because when it comes to job security, the number of closers who actually have it is quite small. Not to mention, the rash of injuries we tend to see from year to year. And, of course, their side of the debate gets a little boost here in February as we see three situations involving closers already coming to light. Read the rest of this entry »

Phew. After a nearly four and a half hour snake draft online, I have officially completed the earliest draft in my fantasy baseball career. LABR stands for League of Alternative Baseball Reality, and along with Tout Wars, is one of the two most publicized “expert” leagues. In the past, LABR has had only two leagues, an AL-Only and NL-Only, with both formats using a live auction in Arizona to select players. Last year, a mixed league with an online draft was formed and I participated in the inaugural season as well. With that background out of the way, let’s get into more league specifics.

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Right-hander Brandon Lyon likely isn’t on too many fantasy radars this winter. After all, he has only compiled five saves over the past two seasons and owns an uninspiring 6.15 K/9 career strikeout rate. A shoulder injury in 2011 and two-plus years with the Houston Astros also contribute to his removal from the collective fantasy consciousness.

With the news that Lyon should be joining the New York Mets bullpen, however, fantasy owners should once again start paying attention to the 33-year-old former closer.

Non-closing relievers do have value in most deeper fantasy formats, but aside from the standard solid run prevention, they ideally must provide ample strikeouts and a chance at save opportunities to justify selection on draft day. Coming into the 2012 season, Brandon Lyon did not project to offer either of those. His strikeout rate had been below-average throughout his career, and Brett Myers had the closer’s role on lockdown in Houston.

A year can make quite the difference.

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